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#1434153 - 16/09/2017 09:34 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
snowbooby Offline
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Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 109
I'm not sure how this suddenly crept up on everyone. You yourself posted to the discussion yesterday afternoon with no sign of what was to come.

From what I can see last night's 8:10 post was the one I think specifically mentioning it.

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#1434155 - 16/09/2017 09:36 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18058
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
It's been raised a few times over the past few days.
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#1434158 - 16/09/2017 09:59 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1398
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
IMO this is over-reacting.

Who's discussing Voldemort? I've been discussing ENSO and it's effects on weather/climate and what is driving the climate in 2017 which is WHAT this thread is about?? Unfortunately, papers considering ENSO and it's effects, AGAIN WHAT this thread is about are tainted with references to Voldemort.

And there has been no personal attacks that I can see by anyone.


Edited by Kino (16/09/2017 10:00)

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#1434159 - 16/09/2017 10:12 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2785
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Kino
...

These climatic cycles are entirely natural, and can tell us nothing about the effect of Voldemort.

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#1434161 - 16/09/2017 10:39 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2785
Loc: Buderim


North Pacific has an enhanced trough running from near California towards the nino 4 region, attempting to push westerlies in towards the equator, while the SE high is strong, and working to enhance the trades. GFS forecast seems to think that the North Pacific should be making significant headway with some westerly anomalies in the central east Pacific, but TAO seems to think the South Pacific is winning with enhanced trades almost throughout, but some westerly anomalies 5-10 deg north of equator.

The low pressure anomalies just west of the dateline with high near PNG is also a potential warming/westerly signal, but its only one day, and it has been the opposite mostly the last week or more.

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#1434162 - 16/09/2017 10:59 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1398
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber


North Pacific has an enhanced trough running from near California towards the nino 4 region, attempting to push westerlies in towards the equator, while the SE high is strong, and working to enhance the trades. GFS forecast seems to think that the North Pacific should be making significant headway with some westerly anomalies in the central east Pacific, but TAO seems to think the South Pacific is winning with enhanced trades almost throughout, but some westerly anomalies 5-10 deg north of equator.

The low pressure anomalies just west of the dateline with high near PNG is also a potential warming/westerly signal, but its only one day, and it has been the opposite mostly the last week or more.


Personally I think a one-day sea level pressure anomaly chart is almost useless. It relates to weather and not climate and quite *disingenuous*.


Edited by Kino (16/09/2017 10:59)

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#1434172 - 16/09/2017 13:52 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
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Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1704
Mega love your work the other day showing the difference of UKMET last 3 months NINO 3.4 temps. ECMWF has now updated.. If you can do the same show the difference the last three months that would be awesome. There is a HUGE difference from July's run til now September's run.
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#1434177 - 16/09/2017 15:48 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
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Registered: 28/01/2010
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It won't be long and we will be on La Nina Watch soon.

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#1434178 - 16/09/2017 15:53 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Chris Stumer]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1398
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
It won't be long and we will be on La Nina Watch soon.


You'd have to think so, though our BoM are far more conservative and Voldemort friendly, and don't they want a 3-month average before they'll even consider it?

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#1434187 - 16/09/2017 16:41 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
ColdFront Offline
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Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18058
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Originally Posted By: Kino
want a 3-month average before they'll even consider it?


5 month centred I believe (3 months of 90 day SOI above threshold ) .
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#1434189 - 16/09/2017 17:11 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: _Johnno_]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6665
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: _Johnno_
Mega love your work the other day showing the difference of UKMET last 3 months NINO 3.4 temps. ECMWF has now updated.. If you can do the same show the difference the last three months that would be awesome. There is a HUGE difference from July's run til now September's run.


Here we go:


[Sorry about the gap between last pic and text, it's an issue with the image] Check out all that cold water suddenly appear in the September run lol. JAMSTEC looks virtually the same as this. Now-casting at its finest. CFSv2 & POAMA somehow sniffed this cooling out months ago.

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#1434192 - 16/09/2017 17:39 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1398
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Such a HUGE variation in only 2 months. Climate models are only as good as the data and biases programmed. Clearly, they need to start again.

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#1434193 - 16/09/2017 17:53 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6665
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber


North Pacific has an enhanced trough running from near California towards the nino 4 region, attempting to push westerlies in towards the equator, while the SE high is strong, and working to enhance the trades. GFS forecast seems to think that the North Pacific should be making significant headway with some westerly anomalies in the central east Pacific, but TAO seems to think the South Pacific is winning with enhanced trades almost throughout, but some westerly anomalies 5-10 deg north of equator.

The low pressure anomalies just west of the dateline with high near PNG is also a potential warming/westerly signal, but its only one day, and it has been the opposite mostly the last week or more.


I've noticed this trough too, I just don't know how much of an effect it will have on the equatorial pacific. In fact GFS Ext and EC have westerly anomalies appearing very close to the equator in the 4 region. What all this means though, hopefully someone can explain. Here's what I'm talking about:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017091600/gfs_mslp_uv850_cpac_47.png - you can see a long stretch of westerlies appearing just north of the equator.

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#1434197 - 16/09/2017 18:17 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2785
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
It won't be long and we will be on La Nina Watch soon.


You'd have to think so, though our BoM are far more conservative and Voldemort friendly, and don't they want a 3-month average before they'll even consider it?


BOM are more conservative about ENSO events than NCEP, with several past events called el nino or la Nina by NCEP but described as neutral by BOM.. They also consider atmospheric indicators when calling an enso event as opposed to NCEP who require a 3 month running average of nino 3.4.

What could this possibly have to do with Voldermort?

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#1434199 - 16/09/2017 18:25 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1398
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
...BoM more conservative....What could this possibly have to do with Voldermort?


Don't you work at the BoM?

And aguamenti!

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#1434200 - 16/09/2017 18:30 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mega]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2785
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Mega


I've noticed this trough too, I just don't know how much of an effect it will have on the equatorial pacific. In fact GFS Ext and EC have westerly anomalies appearing very close to the equator in the 4 region. What all this means though, hopefully someone can explain. Here's what I'm talking about:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017091600/gfs_mslp_uv850_cpac_47.png - you can see a long stretch of westerlies appearing just north of the equator.


Its the North Pacific Meridonal Mode and is a driver towards el nino. Obviously being outweighed by other factors. I suspect it is related to the +ve PDO index. Currentlys its the longest run of +ve PDO index monthly values recorded in the entire 100+ years. If we complete this cool event without it going -ve (or if you count the current event as separate to last years) it would be the first time I can find a major el nino event where pdo has not gone -ve in the subsequent cool ENSO period, although the two years after 82/83 were close. PDO was only +0.1 last month so it would seem likely to go -ve in coming months.

I do think NH is still in warm ENSO mode and SH in cool ENSO mode. I think as we head towards summer NH will increase its influence, and SH influence will reduce. I think a similar pattern has been in play since 2014. If the SH driven cooling can take a hold of the equator far enough that ENSO feedbacks lock in the cooling then the NH warm enso influence may not be able to have an impact until the traditional breakdown period early next year. I would guess this requires significant cooling of nino 4 - cooling waters further east cools waters that are already too cool to drive tropical convection, so little impact on patterns of tropical convection. Or spreading of the cool water further north into the warmer waters 5-10 deg north of the equator, these are also warm enough to support tropical convection in normal conditions, and cooling them down would be a major disruption to the warm North Pacific Meridonal Mode (which is also driven by variations in strength of North East Pacific high pressure).

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#1434203 - 16/09/2017 20:37 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6665
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Thanks Mike.

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#1434229 - 17/09/2017 09:02 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1398
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Finally some good news, looks like an active pulse of the MJO is headed our way and set to finally push on the higher pressure anomalies and lower pressure right across the Country. This hopefully this should encourage moister e/ne winds being sucked into thermal troughs across the Country.

The switch to a summer zonal pattern is happening with the Heat Low starting to take hold and convective activity returning to northern Australia. The SAM is going positive and the polar vortex is weakening. This should pull back these freakin cold bursts (sorry snow lovers but hey you've had a great run!). Looks like a potential wet end to September ahead fingers crossed


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#1434232 - 17/09/2017 09:39 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
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Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1644
Loc: Kingaroy
As long as we don't get a westerly wind burst associated with it like what happened back in 2003.

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#1434241 - 17/09/2017 11:49 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 109
Originally Posted By: Kino
The SAM is going positive and the polar vortex is weakening. This should pull back these freakin cold bursts


Spring weakening of the polar vortex - in contrast to final warming - is often associated with increased cold outbreaks.

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