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#1436652 - 11/10/2017 10:45 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 109
Are there hints that QBO easterly phase may soon continue its descent into the lower stratosphere? In recent weeks I thought the east phase was looking a bit stuck about 30-35hPa.

First time Iíve noticed a break in the rock solid unwavering westerly phase at 50hPa. (Sorry but the link I had times out) For those inclined go to http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/READYcmet.php
put in Singapore co-ordinates and look for extended forecast(240-384hours) Windrose.

I don't know that itís sure to happen - the westerly pattern is occassionally faltering to the south on some model runs rather than switching directly east.

This ties back into the work of Gray, Sheaffer and Knaff that Iíve sighted before concerning QBO easterly phase windshear in the lower stratosphere - and subtle changes which follow from their hypothesis - one of which is for convection activity to tend to shift equatorwards in the WPWP region.



Edited by snowbooby (11/10/2017 10:47)

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#1436654 - 11/10/2017 11:28 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4368
Loc: Brisbane
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Latest weekly nino values from BOM:

nino 3.4 -0.01
nino 3 +0.01

Can't get any more neutral than that.



So are you predicting future warming, cooling or neutral for the remainder of the year Mike?

My prediction is for a developing La Nina as the year draws to a close based on significant cool anomalies in the subsurface, increasing SOI values and current GFS forecasts showing solid trades across most of the equatorial Pacific at least for the coming 2 weeks.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1436660 - 11/10/2017 12:42 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Locke]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1398
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Locke
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Latest weekly nino values from BOM:

nino 3.4 -0.01
nino 3 +0.01

Can't get any more neutral than that.



So are you predicting future warming, cooling or neutral for the remainder of the year Mike?

My prediction is for a developing La Nina as the year draws to a close based on significant cool anomalies in the subsurface, increasing SOI values and current GFS forecasts showing solid trades across most of the equatorial Pacific at least for the coming 2 weeks.


LOL you already know the answer to that grin

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#1436662 - 11/10/2017 12:49 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Locke]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2785
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Locke


So are you predicting future warming, cooling or neutral for the remainder of the year Mike?

My prediction is for a developing La Nina as the year draws to a close based on significant cool anomalies in the subsurface, increasing SOI values and current GFS forecasts showing solid trades across most of the equatorial Pacific at least for the coming 2 weeks.


Despite the presence of the cool subsurface a period of westerly anomalies caused about the same warming as the cooling created by a stronger, more extensive and longer lasting surge in trade winds previously.

Current trade winds seem to coincide with a forecast for a very strong MJO signal emerging in phase 4, and then progressing to stage 5. Stage 5 is some risk of substantial WWB in my opinion, and if it gets to stage 6 the risk gets fairly high. Perhaps the MJO won't amplify at all and we won't get the forecast trade wind surge. Perhaps it will collapse early before it can get far into stage 5 or further.

The switch I commented on: My thoughts is that the NE Pacific may have switched to favouring cool ENSO, but that the NW Pacific may have switched to favouring warm ENSO. I also think that NW Pacific is more about tropical convection, and NE Pacific more about the high pressure belt, and that Cool ENSO is more about high pressure belt, and warm ENSO more about tropical convection. So that previous situation was more NE Pacific holding back La Nina, and NW Pacific holding back El Nino, but now NW is pushing hard for el nino and NE pushing hard for La Nina, so more potential for larger swings either way, and with cool ENSO looking to have first bite at the cherry.

Most ENSO events peak very early in the year, and start decaying. All models currently suggest that the cool conditions will start decaying early next year, although a couple members of the NASA ensemble go for peak cooling to be maintained to maybe March or so before the decay sets in. On this basis I think there is not enough time to get enough cooling for a proper La Nina.

Current TAO obs show some westerly anomalies in the far west the last couple of days. Not really in the forecast and may be a sign the NW Pacific is about to fire up after a long period of quiet. Lots of warm water in the western warm pool capable of supporting substantial convection, and maybe contributing to Kelvin waves if it can get closer to the equator. Currently the warm subsurface is mostly to the north with the slice along the equator pretty close to average.

Prediction: more cooling for the rest of the year, but probably another significant interruption and well short of La Nina, and warming early next year.

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#1436697 - 11/10/2017 19:00 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18058
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Interesting forecast for eastern Queensland over coming days. Whether or not we reach "official" La Nina status is purely academic . The atmosphere it would seem is responding to the cooling that has occurred along the equator the past several weeks. This is reflected strongly in the surge in SOI values for the 90 day centre to above La Nina fresholds. No surprise then that some international forecasters are calling it "likely".

Locally we are already sitting on record October rainfall after a prolonged dry .Hopefully the forecast holds and the rest of Eastern Qld can get a good drenching too.
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#1436699 - 11/10/2017 19:10 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
mammatus meestrus Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 20/11/2008
Posts: 42
Loc: lennox head
Exactly.

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#1436723 - 12/10/2017 07:52 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1398
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Meanwhile, the Southern Hemisphere oceans continue to cool with a cold Humbolt feeding colder water into ENSO zones.


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#1436728 - 12/10/2017 08:04 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2785
Loc: Buderim


Wiplash with strong easterlies followed by big westerly wind burst.

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#1436729 - 12/10/2017 08:06 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2785
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Kino
Meanwhile, the Southern Hemisphere oceans continue to cool with a cold Humbolt feeding colder water into ENSO zones.





Looks like most of the southern hemisphere oceans have been warming to me. Four week change found at link is similar.


Edited by Mike Hauber (12/10/2017 08:07)

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#1436731 - 12/10/2017 08:11 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2785
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Interesting forecast for eastern Queensland over coming days. Whether or not we reach "official" La Nina status is purely academic . The atmosphere it would seem is responding to the cooling that has occurred along the equator the past several weeks. This is reflected strongly in the surge in SOI values for the 90 day centre to above La Nina fresholds. No surprise then that some international forecasters are calling it "likely".

Locally we are already sitting on record October rainfall after a prolonged dry .Hopefully the forecast holds and the rest of Eastern Qld can get a good drenching too.


La Nina atmosphere + cool nino regions means that the ocean-atmosphere feedbacks are likely to hold the atmospheric pattern for a period of several months. La nina atmospehre + neutral ocean = rain now, but no guarantee of how long the atmospheric pattern will hold.

Recent wet has been much stronger along the coast, but a mixed bag west of the ranges - Southern Qld doing well, but central Qld and much of NSW missing out. Normal ENSO impact is strong west of the ranges and weaker east of the range.

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#1436736 - 12/10/2017 08:22 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1644
Loc: Kingaroy
CFS is predicting another dry summer for large portions of eastern and northern Australia. That chart that Mike posted would to indicate that the atmosphere is sloshing backwards and forwards for some reason. Perhaps we're still feeling the after affects of the 2015/2016 El Nino.


Edited by Chris Stumer (12/10/2017 08:31)

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#1436752 - 12/10/2017 09:35 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18058
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Normal ENSO impact is strong west of the ranges and weaker east of the range.


There's that word again ,"normal". There is no "normal" ENSO impact as most events behave differently and are highly variable .
_________________________
"Don't steal. The government hates competition."

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#1436754 - 12/10/2017 09:42 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1398
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: Kino
Meanwhile, the Southern Hemisphere oceans continue to cool with a cold Humbolt feeding colder water into ENSO zones.





Looks like most of the southern hemisphere oceans have been warming to me. Four week change found at link is similar.


You're the only one - all the US guys say it's cooling as well.


Edited by Kino (12/10/2017 09:45)

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#1436755 - 12/10/2017 09:46 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1398
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber


Wiplash with strong easterlies followed by big westerly wind burst.


Still waiting for the massive westerly burst that you've predicted for last 9 months?

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#1436757 - 12/10/2017 09:53 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1398
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Looks like most of the southern hemisphere oceans have been warming to me. Four week change found at link is similar.


This is simply untrue. Both your claims re: westerlies and also that they are warming - this is the last 3 months:


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#1436768 - 12/10/2017 11:14 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2785
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Kino


Still waiting for the massive westerly burst that you've predicted for last 9 months?


Claiming I have been forecasting a massive westerly burst for the last 6 months is nonsense.

The last wind burst I commented that it was quite extreme in the forecast, that the extremity was reason for skepticism. It was not as strong as forecast, but it was still able to undo about 6 weeks of cooling in the space of 2 weeks.

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#1436770 - 12/10/2017 11:22 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2785
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Looks like most of the southern hemisphere oceans have been warming to me. Four week change found at link is similar.


This is simply untrue. Both your claims re: westerlies and also that they are warming - this is the last 3 months:



What has happened between July and September has nothing to do with my claim that the last 4 weeks (starting mid September) has seen warming in most of the southern hemisphere. This is clearly shown in page 9 of what I linked to. Not sure which claim I have made recently about westerlies you think you are disproving here? My claim that GFS is forecasting a large WWB? Again what you post has nothing to do with it.

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#1436771 - 12/10/2017 11:32 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1398
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Claiming I have been forecasting a massive westerly burst for the last 6 months is nonsense.

The last wind burst I commented that it was quite extreme in the forecast, that the extremity was reason for skepticism. It was not as strong as forecast, but it was still able to undo about 6 weeks of cooling in the space of 2 weeks.


I've been a member for exactly 2 months now and you have been forecasting wwb & warming (despite the contrary) throughout that whole period. I can dig back further and provide further specific examples if you wish?

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#1436773 - 12/10/2017 11:36 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1398
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
What has happened between July and September has nothing to do with my claim that the last 4 weeks (starting mid September) has seen warming in most of the southern hemisphere. This is clearly shown in page 9 of what I linked to. Not sure which claim I have made recently about westerlies you think you are disproving here? My claim that GFS is forecasting a large WWB? Again what you post has nothing to do with it.


Again, simply untrue. That graphic I provided *shows* month-by-month variation/anomalies. You can see the difference between August and September, the period you claim was warming, has not warmed at all other then the Coral Sea and far east Indian (which we all have noted but does not contribute to ENSO).

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#1436803 - 12/10/2017 16:02 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 109
As I understand it the claim is for the last 4 weeks, not for the longer period. Also the charts provided above might be most relevant to enso, but, again, the claim was oceans of the southern hemisphere.

We all want this thread to continue.

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