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#1434307 - 18/09/2017 11:26 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9744
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
evillaugh

Not just normal salt then smile

Yep clearly moving well into Spring patterns now. We've already had several nights of not bothering to light the fire.

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#1434311 - 18/09/2017 12:24 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Rob G Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/07/2003
Posts: 673
Loc: Porters Retreat NSW
Wow! Meteye predicts temperatures to reach 40 around far north coast this Sunday - between Yamba and Evans Head. shocked

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#1434346 - 18/09/2017 23:15 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6295
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
I would agree with that given what the models say. I have actually noticed that GFS nails these heat events, I remember it nailed the one on Feb 11th this year from a week out.

It may be moved to different days etc, but one thing for certain is that there will be some extreme heat some point in the near future. Could certainly be some September heat like never seen before in recorded history. NSW has never seen at 40C day in September (highest 39.6 @ Wanaaring), and given current models that will easily be achieved. 41-42 at Bourke at this stage so even if the heat downgrades a bit, there's still a chance at 40C.
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#1434652 - 22/09/2017 09:03 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1012
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Models are all starting to hint at a decent deep trough / NW clooudband next week (Wed/Thursday). Most have substantial falls west of the ranges with GFS the only one bringing decent wetness over the hills. Something worth keeping an eye on as it signals the IOD tentacles finally weakening it's hold over us.

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#1434656 - 22/09/2017 09:23 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9744
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Fingers crossed smile

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#1434671 - 22/09/2017 10:56 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Rob G]
DerekHV Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 813
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Originally Posted By: Rob G
Wow! Meteye predicts temperatures to reach 40 around far north coast this Sunday - between Yamba and Evans Head. shocked


Evans Head definitely has a shot, as it also has the highest August temp for the coastal strip.
Yamba unlikely to happen, and unlikely they will get such a record ever. poke

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#1435325 - 28/09/2017 09:40 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1012
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
OK - well looking like a very interesting start to October, with 2 deep troughs/ECL's on the cards with substantial falls fro most of NSW IF the models come off.

All main 3 models are running with the scenario - just with a few tweaks in timings. EC-10D & 15-D are VERY bullish about a double whammy scenario from 5 Oct through the following week with 50 - 75mm and 100mm isolated falls across nearly all of western NSW. The coast doesn't get as heavy falls but still some decent 25 - 50mm if it comes off.

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#1435327 - 28/09/2017 10:19 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9744
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Yep Kino - agree 100% that interesting modelling occurring at last smile

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#1435329 - 28/09/2017 10:23 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: DaveM]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1012
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: DaveM
Yep Kino - agree 100% that interesting modelling occurring at last smile


Yay hey! As soon as I see those big falls in Central Aus around Alit Splings I know that some decent weather won't be far away - means that the Indian is finally pulling it's weight and dropping a load or 5 off for us.

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#1435330 - 28/09/2017 10:24 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: DaveM]
snowforus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 05/07/2012
Posts: 372
Loc: Lithgow 945m a.s.l. (Central T...
Meanwhile, the 1 mm we've had here in Lithgow from this event is a bit of an encouragement.
Temperature is about 16.
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#1435659 - 01/10/2017 17:49 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1012
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Long suffering east coasters of NSW our drought may finally be broken this week *if* EC comes off.

An upper cold pool, combining with a vigorous jet aloft, a thermal trough at the surface and very healthy DPís of late teens and low 20ís along the leading edge should see widespread severe storms with large hail possible!

If EC stabilises on this scenario it will warrant a thread, prob tomorrow AM. Something is brewing!

CAPE is miserable at this stage but thatís on the single run, the deterministic runs are far more bullish on this. Widespread 20-50mm with a further 10-30mm on the low wrap-around IF it happens.


Edited by Kino (01/10/2017 17:52)

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#1435845 - 02/10/2017 18:47 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Kino]
Rsav Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2016
Posts: 56
Originally Posted By: Kino
thatís on the single run, the deterministic runs are far more bullish on this.

What's the difference between the two?

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#1435846 - 02/10/2017 18:48 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Rsav]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1012
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Rsav
Originally Posted By: Kino
thatís on the single run, the deterministic runs are far more bullish on this.

What's the difference between the two?


Hi RSAV - the Deterministic models take an average of a number of runs, tend to be more accurate as they smooth out the perturbations/outliers that can tend to happen on single runs.

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#1435848 - 02/10/2017 18:50 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Rsav Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2016
Posts: 56
Wow, quick reply! Thanks for that. smile

Where can I see deterministic models?

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#1435849 - 02/10/2017 18:53 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1012
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
If you have WeatherZone Pro they are available under the Models tab; otherwise tropicaltidbits I think also have them. They're called EC-D and EC-E on WxZone.

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#1435850 - 02/10/2017 18:54 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Rsav Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2016
Posts: 56
Thanks again!

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#1435851 - 02/10/2017 18:59 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1012
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
I see EC has cooled a tad but ACCESS-G has upgraded significantly, almost aligning with the previous EC runs. GFS not so interested.

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#1435947 - 03/10/2017 11:57 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1012
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
And no surprises all models have dropped any real precip or activity for Thurs, Fri & Sat frown now focusing most action for Mid-north coast and North Coast.

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#1435952 - 03/10/2017 12:19 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1405
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
A lot of cumulus developing around here this morning it is the best looking sky I have seen here for months,we had a few spits last night,but it just wet the road.
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#1436071 - 04/10/2017 17:34 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1012
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Well it's totally died in the ass for coastal peep; still looks good for the northern tablelands folk. 2 months now since decent rain; and it looks like another week at least before anything even over 5mm.

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