Page 7 of 15 < 1 2 ... 5 6 7 8 9 ... 14 15 >
Topic Options
#1428822 - 25/07/2017 12:11 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1859
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
Don't hold your breathe Dave.
The sheer frustration of opening a synoptic page and seeing a summer like heatwave pattern superimposed on July. Pretty out there. If there is no flip soon it is going to be one hell of a fiery spring/summer. Its just so damn dry. Looking back at the spurt of cool, windy and wet that happened way back in April. It got ones hopes up for a solid winter with oodles of fronts. Wind. Rain and snow from Vic alps to southern QLd. Sigh
_________________________
The deep blue skies of youth are unlike any other.

Top
#1428831 - 25/07/2017 13:38 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9740
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
I hear you.

Honestly, today feels SPRING LIKE here already. I do think this winter will be one of the driest ever for out here. It would take a crazy turnaround in the patterns to change that.

I reckon we will PROBABLY see one half decent change in August but that might be "it".

We've had a cold winter here as far as night temps go. Averaging about -2 for nights - ca good 2 degrees colder than average.

BUT THE DAYS!!! - boy have they been just warm and sunny, cloudy days here this winter are like hens teeth.

Who knows - Spring may go cool and wet, who can tell!! smile

I feel (hope) the "dry" switch may get flicked off in either Spring or early Summer. Surely we couldn't have another Summer like last year straight up. frown

Out here only one weather word is on peoples lips, RAIN - really really needed inland.

Top
#1428833 - 25/07/2017 14:21 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6291
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
I see where you guys are coming from. The big dry is becoming really concerning, and I don't understand why there is just no moisture.

And high 20's for the coast like what could happen this weekend, in July is ****** up. But, from my point of view, I can't deny being excited about such warmth in winter. Possible 20-21C in Bathurst is weird to consider though.. It will feel HOT.


Edited by Wave Rider (25/07/2017 14:22)
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

Top
#1428836 - 25/07/2017 14:54 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9740
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Yep shorts, thongs and singlet weather grin

Top
#1428838 - 25/07/2017 15:10 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Wave Rider]
orangeroughy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/08/2012
Posts: 658
Loc: Orange, NSW
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
I see where you guys are coming from. The big dry is becoming really concerning, and I don't understand why there is just no moisture.


A consecutively very dry June and July simply has no precedent in rainfall records in this district. Its been a 'perfect storm' with the seasonal alignment of negative oceanic and atmospheric factors (neutral EPO; neutral-positive EIO; +SAM; Strong Blocking Highs). Sure, this has occurred before, but to see it sustained for so long over winter is notable.

The Cotton mob aren't that hopeful of much change soon, according to their latest summary of the long term modelling:

"Latest weather and climate news:
Neutral ENSO conditions likely for the spring of 2017, however the Indian Ocean Dipole forecast still leaning towards drier phase
Multi-week models showing little in terms of rainfall through to the second half of August - coupled with higher temperatures
Seasonal climate models showing the spring dry signal diminishing at the start of 2017 summer crop plant."

A small glimmer of light at the end. But that's way out at the lower edge of probability.

Maybe they're relying on the law of averages, aka, its gotta switch over to moisture sometime!

If you're a glass-half-full type then each dry day brings us one closer to rain. cool
_________________________
NW Orange NSW 860m asl

Top
#1428839 - 25/07/2017 15:32 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
kizz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2002
Posts: 1860
Loc: Beacon Hill, Sydney 152m asl
The weekend hair dryer could be tempered by cloud cover in parts of NSW.
GFS says middle / high cloud cover on both Saturday and Sunday morning with a clear slot for both afternoons in Sydney at least. The potential is there for records to be broken.

Having said that I'm fearful of standing lee-wave cloud and greater high cloud coverage ruining any chance of maximum heating potential.
That and the 0900 temperature on Saturday could steal any record high minimum for Sunday.

Top
#1428840 - 25/07/2017 16:30 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1859
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
Temps ratcheted today out west. A few approaching 27. Might see 30's within a few days in some places. Possibly some records. A subtle wind shift can change things though.
As so often happens during a heat dragging hot spell you can still have the heat under a high cloud pre frontal cloud structure. Wonder if that even tempers the heat when is a paper thin high cloud sky.
One issue not talked about much is the greater sun exposure people in these latitudes are subjecting themselves to in a month that is traditionally the cover up month. 25 or 26 make it reasonably comfortable to barbecue yourself at the beach.
_________________________
The deep blue skies of youth are unlike any other.

Top
#1428845 - 25/07/2017 17:25 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Knot]
Steve777 Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3499
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
The BOM are now going for a max of 26 across the metro area on Sunday, a 'courageous' forecast which would be a new record at OH if 26.0 is reached. The record at Sydney Airport is 27.0, set last year. At Bankstown it is 26.7 (80.0F) set on 24/7/1990, at Richmond it is 27.6, set at the old site on the same day.

Originally Posted By: Knot
...
The sheer frustration of opening a synoptic page and seeing a summer like heatwave pattern superimposed on July. Pretty out there.

Like it is for a Summer lover when they look at the synoptic chart in the warmer months and see a huge high plonked down in the Bight, low pressure in the Northern Tasman and long-fetch SE winds forecast to continue forever.

Originally Posted By: Knot
If there is no flip soon it is going to be one hell of a fiery spring/summer.

The pattern reminds me of late August 1995. That was during a record dry spell that lasted 47 days at OH, plus record high temps for August. It was followed by a cool wet September (average max 19.3, compared to 21.3 in August). The Summer that followed was pretty woeful as I recall, especially in December - cool, cloudy although not particularly wet, so probably lots of Bight highs and SE winds.

That might not happen. My 'feeling' is that we are in for a warm Spring, with a 'flip' occuring later in Spring when the highs slip South.

In the immediate future, GFS is showing a reasonable cool down in 7 days' time (like it always has recently), followed by more fronts in the second 8 days. We'll see how it looks later this week.

Top
#1428846 - 25/07/2017 17:55 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1859
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
Originally Posted By: Steve777


Like it is for a Summer lover when they look at the synoptic chart in the warmer months and see a huge high plonked down in the Bight, low pressure in the Northern Tasman and long-fetch SE winds forecast to continue forever.



Touche`

Do you know Steve what each day would have to reach from now till the 31st in Sydney for an averaged max temp to be beaten? Is July 2013 the current record holder?


Edited by Knot (25/07/2017 18:00)
_________________________
The deep blue skies of youth are unlike any other.

Top
#1428853 - 25/07/2017 18:22 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Knot]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6291
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Originally Posted By: Knot
Originally Posted By: Steve777


Like it is for a Summer lover when they look at the synoptic chart in the warmer months and see a huge high plonked down in the Bight, low pressure in the Northern Tasman and long-fetch SE winds forecast to continue forever.



Touche`

Do you know Steve what each day would have to reach from now till the 31st in Sydney for an averaged max temp to be beaten? Is July 2013 the current record holder?


I'm not Steve but I did some calculations (on excel because I'm lazy) and the last 6 days would have to average at least 22.6 degrees for the record to be broken and 22.0 for it to be matched. And yes 2013 is the record at 19.5 degrees.

And yep orangeroughy, so not a good combo of climate drivers.


Edited by Wave Rider (25/07/2017 18:29)
Edit Reason: missing word
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

Top
#1428854 - 25/07/2017 18:34 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1859
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
Great stuff WR. Could be touch and go.
Thursday and Monday slated to be coolest of the following 6 days so that leaves 4 chances of reaching target with of course whopper Sunday decreasing the need for the other 3 to reach 22.6 Opticast now backing 26 for Sydney Sunday. Tends to be a little more on the money daytime temps wise. Hope no shannagins with the temp. You know, bobble t.v head rounding numbers up.
One more bit of pop quiz. Which year has the July with most days 20 or above?


Edited by Knot (25/07/2017 18:35)
_________________________
The deep blue skies of youth are unlike any other.

Top
#1428860 - 25/07/2017 18:48 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3499
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
I'll just add to WR's calculation that if the remaining days of July are as forecast, OH will just miss out on a record monthly average (i.e. 19.4 vs 19.5). If each day is a bit over a degree warmer on average than the forecast (entirely possible), the record will be equalled.

The average minimum, if remaining nights are as forecast, will be 8.5, still above the average (8.1) but slightly below recent averages (8.7, 1981-2010). So the monthly average (of min max) will be high but not a record.

Record number of 20+ days in July? I think we'll need someone from the BOM to answer that.

Top
#1428862 - 25/07/2017 18:59 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6291
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
I'm in the process of going through every year to determine that lol. Will take a while but I'm interested and determined.

I reckon Obs Hill won't top the record for average max in July 2017. Tomorrow is forecasted to be 22 but will likely only reach 20C, but perhaps that will get cancelled out in later days. For example Saturday's 22C forecast could reach 27 or 28 and add a couple for Sunday as well. But the elephant in the room is Monday 31st where it could be sub 15C, so (28+15)/2 = 21.5 so these days will cancel one another out anyway, at this stage.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

Top
#1428865 - 25/07/2017 19:20 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1859
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
Interesting WR and Steve.
A lot of Julys to wade thru WR.
I look fwd to the most days in July 20 or over stats.

Anymore word on this Sam index thingie?
_________________________
The deep blue skies of youth are unlike any other.

Top
#1428875 - 25/07/2017 20:09 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5184
Loc: Dural
Love reading all these stats guys. Appreciate all the work you guy's put in.
I think we'll miss out on the max July average because from an amateurs point of view, the days are struggling to reach the max's due to the morning's still being so cold. The warmer air from the NW hasn't kicked in yet, so night time minimum's are remaining cold.

I've been really enjoying these crystal clear winter days with stunning blue skies. The reason I'm enjoying them so much is that there has not been any controlled burning so far this winter. I would have thought these were ideal conditions.

Well, lo and behold, I just heard on the news that Sydney is expected to become quite smoky in the next few days due to controlled burning commencing. The area stated was the north west of the metro. My area.
Just spiffing.

Top
#1428876 - 25/07/2017 20:10 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8323
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
OCF spot on today, 20.6C just as forecast. Done pretty well in recent days, so willing to put some faith in it. 22.0C Sat and 25.6C for Sun. Cloud cover will be another factor, plenty of it around over the w'end before setting in proper on Monday.

Top
#1428877 - 25/07/2017 20:18 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Homer]
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4332
Loc: NSW Port Stephens
Originally Posted By: Homer
The reason I'm enjoying them so much is that there has not been any controlled burning so far this winter. I would have thought these were ideal conditions.

Well, lo and behold, I just heard on the news that Sydney is expected to become quite smoky in the next few days due to controlled burning commencing. The area stated was the north west of the metro. My area.
Just spiffing.


Its probably better to burn at this time of the year than say late October or November!!

And yes we have a schedule burn for Hawks Nest tomorrow. frown

But agreed these days have been crystal clear.


Edited by EddyG (25/07/2017 20:19)
_________________________
Rainfall
MTD 15.9mm
YTD 1110.3mm
https://www.flickr.com/photos/eddygroot/
YNWA

Top
#1428879 - 25/07/2017 20:52 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6291
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Well I sifted through all 158 July's and there are a few key points and some stats that surprised me. 20+ degree days are expected in July and it is unusual for them to not occur. Also, the most amount of July day's over 20 were not neccessarily recent.

Unsurprisingly July 2013 took top spot with 12 days.

Top July's for number of temps over 20:
2013- 12 days
2005- 10 days
1921- 9 days
1928, 1975, 1988- 8 days



Some other key points:
- The last July with no 20+ degree days was back in 1984.
- July's below 20 were common before 1918.
- Since 1918, there have only been 13 Julys which haven't hit 20.
- Before 1918, 36 Julys had no 20 degree days (maybe due to site change?)
- There have been quite a few 25 degree days, as early as 1926 & 1931
- In the last 20 years there's been an average of 5 days over 20.
- So about one-sixth of the month should have days in the 20's.

_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

Top
#1428883 - 25/07/2017 21:00 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3499
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Meanwhile, Perth is doing its best impression of Sydney in March (if rather colder), with measurable rain on 20/26 days in July so far and sunshine hours tracking under 5 per day.

EDIT: Good stuff WR.

EDIT2: July 2017 for Sydney has 7 20+ days so far, with 4 to go if the forecast comes off. So it comes second.

EDIT3: when I was young and degrees were Fahrenheit, 70 in June and July in Sydney was unusual. Now it's commonplace.


Edited by Steve777 (25/07/2017 21:08)

Top
#1428885 - 25/07/2017 21:12 Re: NSW / ACT - Possible future events [Re: Steve777]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5184
Loc: Dural
I back up Steve's sentiments. Nice work WR!!! Thanks, and interesting.

Eddy, no complaints about the controlled burning, although I have done so before.
I was more making the point that it has been a far more pleasant winter without them. The stunningly beautiful blue skies have not been spoilt like they have in the past this winter.


Edited by Homer (25/07/2017 21:12)

Top
Page 7 of 15 < 1 2 ... 5 6 7 8 9 ... 14 15 >


Who's Online
8 registered (DerekHV, StormSpottersAu, Steve777, Kino, Warwick Eye2Sky, 3 invisible), 290 Guests and 4 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
Evil Kitty, Jake, ka0tik_pengwin, Nullamanna WX, shaunandwendy, stormygirl
Forum Stats
29389 Members
32 Forums
23700 Topics
1465736 Posts

Max Online: 2925 @ 02/02/2011 22:23
Satellite Image