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#1433477 - 10/09/2017 11:38 Another two cold snowy blasts 13/9 - 17-9
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 994
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Hey guys,

I didn't think I'd be starting another thread
Such as this one, but once again the models
Are throwing up two more cold snowy blasts
With possibly more low level snow.
Definitely a couple of systems to keep an
Eye on😀

The first front moves through on Wednesday
With a vigorous Sw air stream, it shows
Some 528 thickness over vic!

Following front moves through Friday night Saturday period,
With once again 528 thickness hanging around
With a cold unstable airstream!!

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#1433554 - 10/09/2017 18:55 Re: Another two cold snowy blasts 13/9 - 17-9 [Re: doogasnow]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5764
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Hey Doogasnow! smile

Yeah, looks like the next two potentially major winter storms for 2017 are locked in and ready to roll for the coming week! grin

Currently we have a high pressure system controlling the weather across much of Australia, but it should retreat into the South Pacific over the coming 24 hours. A low pressure trough is starting to form over the WA Pilbara, and it's linking up to a cold front over the Bight, which should brush past Victoria tomorrow.

Then the trough moves in from the northwest, and a strengthening, mild to warm northerly airflow will build across Victoria as an even stronger cold front and an associated deepening low pressure system from Antarctica charge northbound across the Southern Ocean en route to Southern Australia.

The looming storm system should strike on Wednesday, introducing a very cold, un-springlike southwesterly airstream; this will be reinforced by another powerful cold front on Friday/Saturday!

For tomorrow:

Morning fog and frost in the east. Scattered light showers over the Western & Central districts contracting east during the morning, then cloud increasing with showers redeveloping over the west at night. A mild to warm day with moderate/fresh northwest/northerly winds tending westerly late in the day. Forecast tops of 19C for Melbourne and 28C for Mildura.


For Tuesday:

Scattered showers (isolated in the Northwest and far Southeast), tending to rain over the Southwest and south Central, easing during the afternoon. A mild to warm day with moderate/fresh northwest/northerly winds tending westerly. Forecast tops of 18C for Melbourne and 29C for Mildura.


For Wednesday:

Cloud increasing with showers and thunderstorms developing and spreading across the State. Local hail, and snowfalls down to 600m late in the day and at night. A cool to cold day with moderate/fresh northwest/northerly winds shifting gusty west/southwesterly. Forecast tops of 16C for Melbourne and 17C for Mildura.


For Thursday:

Showers mostly affecting southern and mountain areas, falling as snow above 600m at first then rising to 1100m later in the day. Local hail contracting eastwards, and thunderstorms over the southeast. Cold with moderate/fresh, gusty westerly winds. Forecast tops of 14C for Melbourne and 17C for Mildura.


So happy that Spring 2017 has finally arrived, even though the warmth is taking a while to penetrate south of the Great Dividing Range. But the Pre-Monsoon Buildup is now firing up across the Outback and tropical Northern Australia, and with the Spring Equinox closing in fast, the Battle of the Air Masses will soon be ready to swing into action! And with it, the promise of warmth/heat and increasingly stormy weather!! =D

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#1433624 - 11/09/2017 09:52 Re: Another two cold snowy blasts 13/9 - 17-9 [Re: doogasnow]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5764
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 8.3C, currently around 14C. A windy, mostly cloudy start to the day (the winds started arriving around 12:30am last night), and we had some light rain this morning. Kinda feels like we may get a thunderstorm later today! smile

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#1433664 - 11/09/2017 17:05 Re: Another two cold snowy blasts 13/9 - 17-9 [Re: doogasnow]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 994
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Bom going for snow to 600m later Wednesday
Into Thursday morning!

Late winter early spring just keeps on
Delivering the white stuff to low levels👍👍

Maybe a flurry for me🤔🤔

Ruckle more of a chance 😀

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#1433665 - 11/09/2017 17:06 Re: Another two cold snowy blasts 13/9 - 17-9 [Re: doogasnow]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 994
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Although further out, the Saturday system
Also looking like snow to around that 600m
Mark as well

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#1433667 - 11/09/2017 17:57 Re: Another two cold snowy blasts 13/9 - 17-9 [Re: doogasnow]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2247
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Lovey warm of 19.5c no Bean hat to cap hat. and working outdoor feel hot.

Wont be long back to bean hat next few days.

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#1433670 - 11/09/2017 18:14 Re: Another two cold snowy blasts 13/9 - 17-9 [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6511
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Thanks Dooga - Friday night looks like a 10cm+ chance. Happy extended season for the snow skiers.

....also a chance of a good flush for the Gippsland lakes system if we get a rain event in the next couple of weeks!

GFS:


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#1433807 - 13/09/2017 00:03 Re: Another two cold snowy blasts 13/9 - 17-9 [Re: doogasnow]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5764
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
The past 24 hours have been bizarre in that the nights were not colder but warmer than the days! eek crazy

On Monday it peaked at 16.7C, and it was breezy, unsettled, and mostly cloudy. But all that came of it was mere light showers; no storms unfortunately.

The temperature dropped a couple of notches around dinnertime, but no thanks to warm, gusty northerly winds after nightfall it then started to rise, peaking at 18.7C just before midnight!

Yesterday's high of 18.1C was just after midnight, before dropping to slow of 11.0C early in the morning.

The rest of the day was mostly around 15C. The trough brought a band of rain that lasted until lunchtime, and then it was mostly sunny until mid-afternoon, and then it turned mostly cloudy again.

Collected 1.1mm of rain in the 24 hours to 9am yesterday, followed by another 4.2mm since then. Currently around 15C.

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#1433825 - 13/09/2017 08:48 Re: Another two cold snowy blasts 13/9 - 17-9 [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6511
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Foggy and calm here this morning.

Todays change looks to have the same timing predicted by GFS as posted above a couple of days ago.

Would love to hear a rumble of thunder this arvo .....after the golf sticks are packed away!


Edited by Petros (13/09/2017 08:50)

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#1433935 - 13/09/2017 18:50 Re: Another two cold snowy blasts 13/9 - 17-9 [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6511
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
A mild morning 21.5C turned nasty, with several showers and temps dropping to 14C with a SW'ly change while we played golf this arvo. No thunder.

Tipped out 1mm from my gauge before. Expecting several brief showers here overnight. Should be a snow accumulator by the feel of this event.

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#1433942 - 13/09/2017 19:47 Re: Another two cold snowy blasts 13/9 - 17-9 [Re: doogasnow]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 994
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Already down to 5.6c up here!
Could be an interesting night ahead for
Possibly a flurry?
Temps out west are falling away nicely 👍

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#1433983 - 14/09/2017 09:59 Re: Another two cold snowy blasts 13/9 - 17-9 [Re: doogasnow]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5764
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
My report for yesterday...

Overnight low of 12.4C, followed by a high of 16.6C. The morning felt kinda mild, but the afternoon and evening were icy! By the time I arrived home from work around 7pm it was around 8C. eek crazy

Windy and mostly cloudy with showers, most of them from about midday (around the time the change moved through). Some of the showers were quite heavy, but I didn't witness any thunderstorms or hail. I saw a few nice rainbows though! smile

As for today...

Overnight low of 3.6C, at the last check it was around 10C. Chilly and partly cloudy.

Collected 6.3mm of rain in the 24 hours to 9am (2.1mm up until midnight, and a further 4.2mm since midnight). smile

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#1434036 - 14/09/2017 18:58 Re: Another two cold snowy blasts 13/9 - 17-9 [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6511
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Cold and showery here now.

Glimpses of low level snow visible here and there on my way to work this morning.

More snow to come tomorrow night???:



Local BOM put out a flood watch for Gippsland this arvo. They must think that a lot of "up top" precipitation is going to be rain??

A flood to arrive into Maffra would be bizarre. We are dry as the proverbial wooden tit around this local area.

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#1434040 - 14/09/2017 19:09 Re: Another two cold snowy blasts 13/9 - 17-9 [Re: doogasnow]
Anthony Violi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2001
Posts: 2315
Loc: Soon to be Mt Barker - SA
Hi Petros, EC is very wet there locally. And then tops it up on Monday with a further 10 - 20 mm.

West Gippsland looks the wettest I think, and the Upper Yarra.
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#1434041 - 14/09/2017 19:26 Re: Another two cold snowy blasts 13/9 - 17-9 [Re: doogasnow]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 994
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Max of 8c up here today with a snowy low
Of 1.9c this morning😀 Few flurries on the
Hill this morning very fresh!!

25mm in the bucket to go with the snow
Flurries!

Look forward to this next little cold blast
Later tommoz into sat!! Could be even colder
Set up than the last ??

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#1434053 - 14/09/2017 21:32 Re: Another two cold snowy blasts 13/9 - 17-9 [Re: doogasnow]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5764
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Reached a top of 13.2C here in Belgrave today, certainly a mostly cloudy, chilly old day but with sunny breaks. No additional rainfall measured in the gauge since 9am, but no doubt there have been some light showers about, and still a bit of activity in my area on the Broadmeadows radar right now. smile

Tomorrow's cold front should certain reinforce and revitalise the southwesterly airstream behind the yesterday's frontal system. My September 2017 rainfall total is currently at 45.1mm, so an additional 10-20mm (or more) worth of rain to finish off the first half of the month would be a bonus! Fingers crossed that we can make it to the magic 100mm mark by the end of the month for the first time since February 2017 (132.9mm). wink

Things could get a touch frosty on Sunday morning across parts of Melbourne in the wake of the looming polar blast, then a brief mild spell before becoming windy and stormy ahead of another vigorous cold front set to strike on Tuesday. Probably collect another 10mm or so from it. smile

Then late next week the Battle of the Air Masses looks ready to finally swing into action, and just in time for the 2017 Spring Equinox on Saturday September 23rd!

A strong high builds into Southeastern Australia on Wednesday and establishes a persistent northerly airflow across Victoria, which gains momentum and strengthens ahead of what could be the next potentially major winter storm system from Antarctica! Should be a very nippy start to Wednesday, then gloriously warm spring weather floods the State, with 22C for Melbourne on Thursday! In fact temperatures could soar to around 32C as soon as next Thursday/Friday across the Mallee region!

Quite an intense polar blast scheduled for the weekend of the Equinox according to ACCESS, with damaging northerly gales building ahead of it! BSCH also has instability and possibly our first severe thunderstorm outbreak for next Friday! grin

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#1434082 - 15/09/2017 10:29 Re: Another two cold snowy blasts 13/9 - 17-9 [Re: doogasnow]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5764
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 9.6C, currently around 13C and cloudy. Awaiting the forecasted showers to arrive.

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#1434103 - 15/09/2017 15:39 Re: Another two cold snowy blasts 13/9 - 17-9 [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1763
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Some weather about according to the BOM.

http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/warnings/flood/floodwatch-westsouthgippsland.shtml

Nothing here so far but ominous look to the West, ACCESS modelling 10mm to 20mm / 3hr rain rate round midnight tonight, don't see that here to often.
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept22.5mmto0800 17/9.(YTD <200mm)

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#1434105 - 15/09/2017 16:01 Re: Another two cold snowy blasts 13/9 - 17-9 [Re: doogasnow]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 641
Loc: Knox, Melbourne, VIC
Some nice quick heavy downpours and a few flashes and rumbles in the CBD!

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#1434112 - 15/09/2017 18:38 Re: Another two cold snowy blasts 13/9 - 17-9 [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6511
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Eke'd out 0.25mm before to take us to 2.5mm for this pair of events. Heard this morning that Fish Creek in S Gippy has had 6 inches so far this month! . Only 18mm here so far and we are in semi drought conditions, and amazing difference for only an hours drive up and over the Strezleckkis from here to there. Why? no easterly systems.


So naturally Dooga/Samboz/ThunderBob/Petros are cheering on AccR for tonight!!:



.and boos to a miserly GFS  :



Either scenario, its been a dramatic turn from near drought to plugged boggy paddocks for those farming from Wonthaggi to Yarram over the past month!!

...not to mention a continuation of a memorable snow season! (oops! - nearly made a comment on Ross Garnauts climate predictions then - stopped myself just in time).

Got light rain falling here now hope it continues tonight, we need it!



Edited by Petros (15/09/2017 18:44)

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