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#1434643 - 22/09/2017 08:33 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Fire risk/severe heat/inland raised dust/poss severe storm - 22-30th Sep 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4683
I wouldn't expect anything less of the Mt Stapylton radar on a day like today laugh

1st map below - raised dust concentrations from EC for 10am Sat.
2nd map below - sane as above except for 10pm Sun.
3rd map below - updated thunderstorm script output for today (til midnight).

Still thinking highest thunderstorm risk will be slightly inland of the coast (e.g. Sunshine Coast hinterlands, Lockyer Valley, etc) due to the fairly weak WSW steering....but more coastal places like Brisbane metro still in with a chance.

Shear also still looks fairly weak on latest ACCESS-R which is a shame and a waste because the thermodynamics look great (including the 500hpa temps which are more than cold enough to support large hail but if we had stronger shear, this would greatly boost the large hail risk).
Maybe still just enough shear together with the seabreeze front to help with a bit of organisation.

Mainly sunny morning skies which should help.

But no coastal southerly change.

So given all that, there'll definitely be storms in our region but I'm thinking the majority of them will be non-severe and a bit pulsey with the outside chance that a small proportion of them might become severe:







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#1434651 - 22/09/2017 08:59 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Fire risk/severe heat/inland raised dust/poss severe storm - 22-30th Sep 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Colin Maitland Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2383
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
Yeah Ken that dust per g/m3 (micrograms per cubic meter) has risen sharply from this time yesterday. Last night it hit 794.4 g/m3 to this morning of 1074g/m3 with the latest run.

To put it into perspective the Red Dawn dust storm on 22 and 23 September 2009, the concentration level measured near Sydney was 15,366 μg/m3 with Visibility down to 400M. But still 1074g/m3 is not pleasant and will leave a film of dust everywhere and people coughing, sneezing or wheezing. As it is our cars have a layer over them everyday. Just hoping that the NW winds can keep that dust to the south of us.
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#1434665 - 22/09/2017 10:40 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Fire risk/severe heat/inland raised dust/poss severe storm - 22-30th Sep 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1663
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Hi all. Yes conditions are ripe for dust storms .It is very dusty here its so dry and have wind from the South West between 20 and 38kmh ,Forecast to be from the West North west .33 degs already.
Have been in 3 dust storms 2 on the coast and one out here.
On a funny note 20 years ago family out here were having lunch and just all got our bowls of ice cream ,And we watches a large dust devil coming down the middle of the road .We were all watching and starting to eat ice cream then it hung a left and hit the house and veranda,It left us all covered in dirt and mud for ice cream .We had to laugh lol
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#1434669 - 22/09/2017 10:53 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Fire risk/severe heat/inland raised dust/poss severe storm - 22-30th Sep 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
wet sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/10/2015
Posts: 626
Loc: NENSW-Wet Subtropics
Both NSW and QLD BoM going for 'possibly severe' storms today.

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#1434676 - 22/09/2017 11:13 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Fire risk/severe heat/inland raised dust/poss severe storm - 22-30th Sep 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2904
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Bring it on!

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#1434681 - 22/09/2017 11:29 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Fire risk/severe heat/inland raised dust/poss severe storm - 22-30th Sep 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
AnnerleyX1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/01/2013
Posts: 54
Looks like more heat late next week as well as this weekend. Pretty crazy how we're having a 3 month early summer up here, while down south they're having the best end to a snow season in 20 years.

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#1434683 - 22/09/2017 11:40 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Fire risk/severe heat/inland raised dust/poss severe storm - 22-30th Sep 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
wet sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/10/2015
Posts: 626
Loc: NENSW-Wet Subtropics
This year summer ended in March and is starting in September it seems. We're taking a leaf out of Darwin's book.

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#1434684 - 22/09/2017 11:50 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Fire risk/severe heat/inland raised dust/poss severe storm - 22-30th Sep 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
pabloako Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 30/03/2007
Posts: 1619
Loc: Ocean View, Queensland
Here is a copy of today's 00z Sounding from Brisbane.
http://www.oceanviewweather.com.au/Soundings/Chart00ZSounding.aspx
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#1434687 - 22/09/2017 12:04 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Fire risk/severe heat/inland raised dust/poss severe storm - 22-30th Sep 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 2931
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Thanks for that solid cap but 32c should do it?

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#1434688 - 22/09/2017 12:29 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Fire risk/severe heat/inland raised dust/poss severe storm - 22-30th Sep 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
CirrusFibratus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/09/2015
Posts: 299
Loc: Strathpine, QLD
Stapy back up again now, must have been som last minute maintenance for today.
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#1434690 - 22/09/2017 13:00 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Fire risk/severe heat/inland raised dust/poss severe storm - 22-30th Sep 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Coxy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 1044
Loc: Jindalee, QLD
And so it begins... cells firing up on the range

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#1434691 - 22/09/2017 13:08 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Fire risk/severe heat/inland raised dust/poss severe storm - 22-30th Sep 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2904
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Clouds building nicely to the west

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#1434692 - 22/09/2017 13:15 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Fire risk/severe heat/inland raised dust/poss severe storm - 22-30th Sep 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Colin Maitland Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2383
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
Storm tracker lighting up quickly with the Crows Nest cell and Blenheim Cell.
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#1434693 - 22/09/2017 13:27 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Fire risk/severe heat/inland raised dust/poss severe storm - 22-30th Sep 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2904
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Beautiful black looking, yeay!

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#1434695 - 22/09/2017 13:28 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Fire risk/severe heat/inland raised dust/poss severe storm - 22-30th Sep 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Colin Maitland Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2383
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
Fire Weather Warning

IDQ20035
Fire Weather Warning
for the Channel Country, Maranoa and Warrego and Darling Downs and Granite Belt forecast districts

Issued at 10:48 am EST on Friday 22 September 2017.
Weather Situation

A vigorous trough moving slowly eastwards across central Australia today will reach far southwestern Queensland on Saturday. Hot and dry conditions with fresh to strong and gusty northwesterly winds to the east of the trough will result in enhanced fire dangers over the southern interior on Saturday, mainly from the late morning until the early evening.
For Saturday 23 September:

Extreme Fire Danger is forecast for the following forecast district:
Maranoa and Warrego

Severe Fire Danger is forecast for the following forecast districts:
Channel Country and Darling Downs and Granite Belt
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VK4FCDM (Amateur radio call sign)

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#1434700 - 22/09/2017 13:41 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Fire risk/severe heat/inland raised dust/poss severe storm - 22-30th Sep 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Foehn Correspondent Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/11/2001
Posts: 550
Loc: Bardon 4065
Air Services Australia Web Camera at Toowoomba Airport showing the Crows Nest Cell nicely. Link to the menu and select Toowoomba.

http://www.airservicesaustralia.com/WeatherCam/

Looks like they have installed a few more cameras as well that might be useful.
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If at first you dont succeed call it Version 1.0

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#1434703 - 22/09/2017 13:46 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Fire risk/severe heat/inland raised dust/poss severe storm - 22-30th Sep 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2904
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Thanks for posting F.C. very nice.
Rumbling going on out here.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (22/09/2017 13:47)

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#1434706 - 22/09/2017 14:03 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Fire risk/severe heat/inland raised dust/poss severe storm - 22-30th Sep 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mike Hauber Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2758
Loc: Buderim
Sunshine coast doing well in a NW setup? Never thought I'd see the day.

Still got to see if there is enough shear to get them down from the hills.

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#1434707 - 22/09/2017 14:10 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Fire risk/severe heat/inland raised dust/poss severe storm - 22-30th Sep 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2904
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Damn storm bombed just past our place, bugger!

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#1434708 - 22/09/2017 14:14 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Fire risk/severe heat/inland raised dust/poss severe storm - 22-30th Sep 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Colin Maitland Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2383
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
Just received an Ewn for warning.

BoM warning

Severe Thunderstorm Warning - Southeast Queensland
for DAMAGING WINDS and LARGE HAILSTONES

For people in parts of Ipswich, Somerset, Lockyer Valley, Sunshine Coast, Brisbane City and Moreton Bay Council Areas.

Issued at 2:01 pm Friday, 22 September 2017.

The Bureau of Meteorology warns that, at 2:05 pm, severe thunderstorms were detected on the weather radar near the area south of Esk and the area north of Woodford. These thunderstorms are moving towards the east to southeast. They are forecast to affect Lowood, Fernvale and Peachester by 2:35 pm and Woodford, Mount Beerwah and Beerwah by 3:05 pm.

Damaging winds and large hailstones are likely.

Small hail has occurred at Crows Nest and Gatton.
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