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#1434547 - 21/09/2017 08:03 SE QLD/NE NSW - Fire risk/severe heat/inland raised dust/poss severe storm - 22-30th Sep 2017
Ken Kato Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4683
The start/end dates for this thread are a bit open-ended...and not all of the phenomena will occur through this whole period.

In short:
- The most dangerous fire risk looks like being in NSW and inland southern QLD...but our region will probably still see elevated risk as well.
- Fire risk will obviously be lower if there's less firebugs out and about (although it is school holidays I guess), if fires are contained quickly enough, there's no dry lightning, or if there's enough recent rainfall from showers/storms.
- The heat could approach, or break records in some places... although may not be as hot along the coastline if seabreezes can get in early enough.
- Raised dust possible mainly in far inland NSW/far inland southern QLD/northeastern SA. Prolonged dry conditions (also reflected in NDVI anomalies in these regions), very strong winds over those regions and frontal forcing could help to kick up some dust.
- For today/overnight, the slight chance of some very hit & miss showers or thunderstorms with low rainfall near the northern and northwestern parts of SE QLD (maybe more around the Burnett region if anything).
- For tomorrow, I think most things look good for storms in our region, some possibly severe.
If you really wanted to play devil's advocate and look on the pessimistic side of things, you could argue that any cloud cover/precip from previous activity overnight or early morning could interfere (although models currently suggest there should still be enough clear periods), there's no southerly change to help things, or that shear is a bit on the weak side. But I still think there'll be storms.

Strengthening N to NW winds dragging down very hot air over these regions ahead of a cold front sweeping across SE Australia with gusty W to SW winds behind it.

Here's some script outputs.
Note that for the fire one, it doesn't factor in whether areas have little to no vegetation to burn (e.g. desert areas).
Also, for the thunderstorm one for Friday, it goes from midnight Thu to midnight Fri so it naturally covers the early morning hours of Friday as well... not just the daytime):











Edited by Seabreeze (24/09/2017 12:33)
Edit Reason: date extended from 26th to 30th

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#1434551 - 21/09/2017 08:47 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Fire risk/severe heat/inland raised dust/poss severe storm - 22-30th Sep 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5079
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Many thanks Ken. Guess you'll also be posting these on Facebook so we can share? Looks like the fire one is missing.

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#1434552 - 21/09/2017 09:06 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Fire risk/severe heat/inland raised dust/poss severe storm - 22-30th Sep 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4683
Oops sorry, here's the fire one:

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#1434559 - 21/09/2017 11:32 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Fire risk/severe heat/inland raised dust/poss severe storm - 22-30th Sep 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 616
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Thanks Ken for your professional input.If these are going to be high based thunderstorms, what can make them severe is it wind gusts and can high based thunderstorms spawn decent lightning?

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#1434561 - 21/09/2017 11:52 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Fire risk/severe heat/inland raised dust/poss severe storm - 22-30th Sep 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Colin Maitland Offline
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Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2383
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
Just having a look at another modelling system and Brisbane currently has a dust particle reading of 3.9 g/m3 but out west they are recording 74.2g/m3. It is not ultra high but could be enough to trigger some respiratory problems or those with a COPD to struggle. It is building as the day progresses.
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#1434568 - 21/09/2017 13:03 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Fire risk/severe heat/inland raised dust/poss severe storm - 22-30th Sep 2017 [Re: Colin Maitland]
Nature's Fury Offline
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Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1878
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Tomorrow looks a lot better for storms than it did a few days ago, but still some issues.

Noticeably there are winds backing with height, which suggests to me that supercells might not be out of the question. Lots of instability in the atmosphere with up to 1500 CAPE over Brisbane by late afternoon. Seabreeze pushes the surface trough back toward Toowoomba in the late afternoon. Plenty of surface heating with temps reaching up to 30 with very cold uppers.

A few things I don't like though. Still feels very dry with dewpoints in the low teens, although the seabreeze does inject some moisture into the lower levels. Steering is from the NW, which makes it hit/miss for Brisbane itself, especially as the stronger storms will move E/NE. Looks like some cloud cover in the morning but clearing around midday.

All models have precipitation tomorrow afternoon. GFS keeps it entirely in the Sunshine Coast, Access-R across SEQ but with heavier falls in SC and EC has a good spread across SEQ.

Really interested to see what kind of storms develop tomorrow, if any. Some excellent severe storm conditions but they'll have to contend with the dryness.

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#1434570 - 21/09/2017 13:16 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Fire risk/severe heat/inland raised dust/poss severe storm - 22-30th Sep 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4683
Did you mean to say steering is from the SW?
ACCESS-R currently has steering (for the non-severe cells) from the WSW which takes on a more SSW component tomorrow night... obviously if any severe cells managed to develop, they'd take on a different track like you said.

Steering winds are a bit on the weak side though so I'm not expecting the more garden variety storms to race along... although if a cell or two managed to start becoming severe over the Scenic Rim ranges, it could take on that typical more northerly track (if it's a left mover) up into SE QLD.

Tweedstorm: I'd expect most storms inland of the coast to be high-based (the usual threat with these would be the gusty winds) but if any manage to come close enough to the coast, the seabreeze front and more moisture, their bases would become lower and maybe start trying to develop some shelf cloud structure.
If enough rich high-dewpoint air manages to get ingested into the storms closer to the coast then I don't think you'd be able to rule out hail either given the sufficiently cool midlevels... although that's only a bit of speculation on my part (I haven't had a detailed look yet).


Edited by Ken Kato (21/09/2017 13:17)
Edit Reason: added stuff

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#1434579 - 21/09/2017 14:41 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Fire risk/severe heat/inland raised dust/poss severe storm - 22-30th Sep 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 616
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Thanks Ken . .the hinterland might be a good place for starters for me tomorrow. . Beaudesert maybe

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#1434584 - 21/09/2017 15:18 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Fire risk/severe heat/inland raised dust/poss severe storm - 22-30th Sep 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5187
Loc: Diamond Valley
Ahem, do I see some activity building west of Maleny? Or am I hallucinating after so long without rain?
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#1434589 - 21/09/2017 15:34 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Fire risk/severe heat/inland raised dust/poss severe storm - 22-30th Sep 2017 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Nature's Fury Offline
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Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1878
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Stapylton back up! Don't know how we ever survived all those years with Marburg.

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#1434591 - 21/09/2017 15:36 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Fire risk/severe heat/inland raised dust/poss severe storm - 22-30th Sep 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4683
ACCESS-R has a fair bit of instability aloft tonight/overnight/early Fri morning around our region (CAPE around 800 to 1000J/kg) above the capping but doesn't want to drop much precip except for in the north and a bit to the west.

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#1434597 - 21/09/2017 16:21 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Fire risk/severe heat/inland raised dust/poss severe storm - 22-30th Sep 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Steve O Offline
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Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 2931
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
GFS forecast sounding for Bris tomorrow afternoon and seems to be the easiest data to view has really nice lapse rate plenty of instability and low level capping. If only the shear was abit better would be looking pretty nasty. The low humidity overall and weakish shear I think is leading to the low precip percentage.

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#1434598 - 21/09/2017 16:34 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Fire risk/severe heat/inland raised dust/poss severe storm - 22-30th Sep 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
tsunami Offline
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Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1044
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
So. Ken is it possible for a few spits or a rumble over night tonight
It seems the forcast doesnt reflect that but the maine pt dangerdoes
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#1434606 - 21/09/2017 18:14 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Fire risk/severe heat/inland raised dust/poss severe storm - 22-30th Sep 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
LightningGus Offline
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Registered: 12/05/2012
Posts: 1121
Loc: Kingaroy QLD 434m ASL
A small cell is currently passing just south of here, can see the sheets of rain in the evening light, must be a bit of moisture in the air as its certainly reaching the ground.
The last time we had over 2mm in one go was 67 days ago so even a couple of mm tomorrow would be awesome.
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#1434607 - 21/09/2017 18:19 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Fire risk/severe heat/inland raised dust/poss severe storm - 22-30th Sep 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
cookiemonsta Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 86
Loc: Mount Hallen, QLD
Can't wait for some rain/storms and glad Mt Stapy is back in time for some action. Getting very dry here, running my bore pump almost daily is going to lead to a big power bill. Hope everyone gets a drink tomorrow arvo, particularly the farmers out here.

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#1434610 - 21/09/2017 18:48 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Fire risk/severe heat/inland raised dust/poss severe storm - 22-30th Sep 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
PlumbBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/05/2011
Posts: 512
Loc: Ashmore Gold Coast
Nice Thread, Ken, & a very informative start well wrapped.

A rather dry trough line in the low & surface levels tomoro arv, with some moist onshores from the NE tho not quite making it to the trough, but better moisture in the 700's hpa with between 90% & upto 98% Relative Humidity in along the trough in places.
In saying that, the good moisture is only in a thin layer which would indicate high cloud bases that should form.
From there up, is going to be interesting, keeping my eyes open :-)
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#1434616 - 21/09/2017 19:53 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Fire risk/severe heat/inland raised dust/poss severe storm - 22-30th Sep 2017 [Re: tsunami]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4683
Originally Posted By: tsunami
So. Ken is it possible for a few spits or a rumble over night tonight
It seems the forcast doesnt reflect that but the maine pt dangerdoes

I'd still say unlikely....maybe just a bit of localised stuff near the SW corner, northern and coastal fringe/offshore overnight or during the wee hours.

ACCESS-R still suggests patchy early morning cloud may decrease as we head later into the morning (unless any overnight/early morning activity is more extensive than forecast).

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#1434623 - 21/09/2017 21:36 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Fire risk/severe heat/inland raised dust/poss severe storm - 22-30th Sep 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1878
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Tonight's GFS shows a pretty big storm cell developing on the southern SC and offshore tomorrow evening. Up to 25+ mm.

The wind fields are pretty interesting for that particular area. Comparing the 4 and 7 pm a noticeable convergence from NE'lies on the 2m and 950 and increased wind speeds to 20-25 kts develop. Wind speeds on the 850 increase to 25 kts and 700 to 35 kts.

Not sure if GFS is picking up winds that help spawn the storm or if this is the inflow/shear of the cell itself. And of course it's GFS... Either way, it just goes to show that it's a dynamic environment tomorrow.

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#1434626 - 21/09/2017 21:52 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Fire risk/severe heat/inland raised dust/poss severe storm - 22-30th Sep 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4683
ACCESS-C has a similar feature (enhanced convection with outflow boundary) developing over central and northern parts of SE QLD tomorrow evening but it almost vanishes the associated precip later in the evening. Typically when you see these individual convective features in a high resolution model like ACCESS-C, they have a fair bit of precip with them but not this particular feature.

Having said that, I don't usually pay too much attention to the individual storms that a model forecasts (except if it's a dedicated convection-allowing model like HRRR used in the US) but ACCESS-C is getting better at replicating these and the latest version is in the process of becoming a nowcasting tool for severe thunderstorm forecasting/warning among other things.

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#1434639 - 22/09/2017 08:08 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Fire risk/severe heat/inland raised dust/poss severe storm - 22-30th Sep 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
CirrusFibratus Offline
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Registered: 17/09/2015
Posts: 299
Loc: Strathpine, QLD
Stapylton radar down again at the moment.
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