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#1434463 - 20/09/2017 11:07 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10168
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Correct RP.

I suspect this summer won't be as consistently hot as last year. Have a feeling it might be wetter this year. At least I hope so smile

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#1434471 - 20/09/2017 11:55 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7236
Yeah I think the odds are stacked against a hot, dry summer since it happened last summer. You wouldn't expect it happen 2 years in a row.
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#1434482 - 20/09/2017 12:52 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10168
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
That's my thinking too.

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#1434490 - 20/09/2017 14:36 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10168
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
EQUINOX looming, apparently Friday night/Sat morning.

Daylight saving 11 days away?

Winter thoughts rapidly receding.

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#1434491 - 20/09/2017 14:39 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3266
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Yeah I think the odds are stacked against a hot, dry summer since it happened last summer. You wouldn't expect it happen 2 years in a row.


For mine: hot dry spring, than a cooler daytime/warmer nighttime wet summer and autumn.

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#1434501 - 20/09/2017 15:09 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2952
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Spring so far has not been hot apart from a day or two, dry yes, very dry. Moving into October the indication at the moment is cooler/wetter but that may change.
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#1434503 - 20/09/2017 15:14 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4909
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
I think that this season is likely to go like 2013/14. That featured a warm dry late Winter and early Spring, climaxing with heatwaves (and serious bushfires) in October. The weather broke in late October to a milder pattern, with average or slightly above average temperatures. November was very wet but the Summer was still fairly dry in Sydney. Late Winter & Spring 2013 were, however, not nearly as dry as this season.

I also did an analysis of the correlation between monthly maximum anomalies in Bankstown a few years ago. I'll see if I can find it. Basically, there was no correlation between Spring and Summer. A warm September was likely to be followed by a warm October, there was a weak correlation with November and none with Summer. I think it's got something to do with a flip to a more maritime/ Easterly pattern in late Spring.

Sydney has been nearly rainless since August 5. I can't see that continuing for too much longer. Dry spells in Sydney tend to finish with a lot of rain.


Edited by Steve777 (20/09/2017 15:15)

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#1434504 - 20/09/2017 15:49 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10168
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
I am also working on the theory that on "average" we should not finish the year toooooo far behind the "normal" rainfall.

We should be about 450mm by end September & about 630mm for the full year.

CURRENTLY YTD we're on about 200mm.

It seems our lowest EVER annual rain was 1982 with about 215mm

I reckon we must SURELY have SOME sort of catch up.

If we end up with say HALF the annual average, we must still receive another say 115mm in the next 3 months

Any more than half the annual means we MUST have a period of some pretty decent rain.

If we actually get anywhere near the average annual rain - it's gunna be bloody wet!!! smile

Suspect we might end up with about 3/4 average for the year if we are lucky - woeful.

It will do what it wants despite our wishing and whining grin

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#1434509 - 20/09/2017 16:26 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Wave Rider]
J Pabo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/10/2012
Posts: 429
Loc: Clydesdale NSW
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Wow J Pabo I wonder if that still happens?? And you're talking about the ambo station on Emerson Rd right, next to the freeway bridge? If so, that's quite a distance to carry a snake from Mt Brown to there!!


Yeap, that was the Ambo station! It was only about a one and a half km walk from the mountain top (depending where you caught it). But we did put the snake is a thick hessian bag.

The poor Ambo officers thought that we were bringing in dead ones to be used as specimens for identifying them, but freaked out when the bag was moving on its own accord.

I wonder if they still have the specimen jars in their station of all the snakes and spiders and such they had for display and teaching purposes.


Edited by J Pabo (20/09/2017 16:27)

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#1434510 - 20/09/2017 16:30 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4909
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Just looked at the new forecast:

Sydney / Paramatta / Richmond have been 'upgraded' to 33 / 34 / 36 on Saturday. The 36 at Richmond will be a new September record for both the old and new RAAF sites (old record 35.9, 30/9/1980).

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#1434511 - 20/09/2017 16:38 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
DerekHV Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 1257
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Going for 36C now on Saturday.
With no long term records at Maitland Airport, it could go close to a record at Tocal, which is standing at 36.2C from Sept 2003.
This should also beat the old Maitland record at Maitland Visitors Centre, which is 10Ks away mind you, (35.2C)
Singleton going for 37C, also a record.
Those snakes will well and truly be awake and out by then!

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#1434514 - 20/09/2017 17:41 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
isaY Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 100
Loc: ORANGE NSW 900m asl
Orange highest September record 24c
Forecast for Saturday 28c

That's smashing the record
Like the snow that never showed we'll see if it happens

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#1434536 - 21/09/2017 00:37 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7236
Well 25.7 has been recorded at the Ag station but even in that case it would still be smashing the record. I would believe the forecast, will go higher than that if anything I reckon.

Tell you what, I'd be inclined to start forecasting a few 38's around the Sydney basin now.

J Pabo, I don't think much happens at the ambo station these days so they probably don't have any of that. I've certainly never heard of it.


Edited by Wave Rider (21/09/2017 00:38)
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#1434539 - 21/09/2017 04:50 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8783
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
I really can't see obs hill getting to 25C today and 28C tomorrow with NE'lys on the coast, which are fairly cold for this time of year. 21-22C perhaps unless it's an early spike. Saturday different story as the W'lys take over.

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#1434542 - 21/09/2017 07:01 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Long Road Home]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4909
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Originally Posted By: Long Road Home
I really can't see obs hill getting to 25C today and 28C tomorrow with NE'lys on the coast, which are fairly cold for this time of year. 21-22C perhaps unless it's an early spike. Saturday different story as the W'lys take over.

I agree. This morning's synoptic chart shows Eastern NSW under a high pressure area, with a weak General W-NW circulation developing. There'll be no resistance to the NE'er. Yesterday OH struggled to 19 late morning then hovered around 17-18 all afternoon.

Tomorrow the NW circulation will be a bit stronger but I can't see it getting higher than the low 20s near the coast.

The NW'ers arrive in force Sunday and might keep the sea breeze out long enough for 36 (and a new September record) across the Sydney Basin. Cloud won't be an issue, nor Southerlies and 850 temps over Sydney will be a Summer-like 20.


Edited by Steve777 (21/09/2017 07:09)
Edit Reason: Last para

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#1434546 - 21/09/2017 07:50 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Wave Rider]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10633
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Well 25.7 has been recorded at the Ag station but even in that case it would still be smashing the record. I would believe the forecast, will go higher than that if anything I reckon.
Orange has a September record of 30.0C at one of its previous sites at the Post Office, recorded on Sept 26th 1965 (12 years of high max temp records available, 1957-1968. Pre-1957 data is yet to be digitised).
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_063065_All.shtml
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South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
April 2019 Rainfall: 161.4mm (April Avg. 169.3mm) // April 2019 Raindays: 19 (April Avg. 12.9 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 422.0mm (Jan-Apr Avg. 666.4mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 57 (Jan-Apr Avg. 55.6 raindays)

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#1434553 - 21/09/2017 09:32 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3944
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
That 1965 number for Orange is impressive (even given that the town's warmer than the airport). Bathurst got 29.3 that day, 0.1 below its September record (which probably won't survive Saturday).

Current forecast guidance indicates September record highs on Saturday over much of the northern half of NSW west of the ranges.

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#1434554 - 21/09/2017 10:06 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
DerekHV Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 1257
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
State record also on notice for Saturday:

Highest 39.6C at
Wanaaring in 2004

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#1434558 - 21/09/2017 11:08 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
EddyG Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5428
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Beautiful day, no wind no clouds. Looking forward to this warmth.

Was watering the yard this morning, something that rarely gets done and I noticed the soil is becoming hydrophobic!!
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2018 - 1145.9mm
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#1434560 - 21/09/2017 11:43 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10168
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Warm air aloft, already warmer at Sunny corner (near Yetholme) at elevation approx 1200m - over 20 degrees while Bathurst is 19. Orange also slightly warmer than Bathurst.

Heat will mix down and we will pass them soonish I suspect.

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