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#1434566 - 21/09/2017 12:51 September 21st onwards, possible record heat during September 2017
DerekHV Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 841
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Worthy of it's own thread now.
Many locations, including the state record now on notice.


Edited by Seabreeze (01/10/2017 14:23)
Edit Reason: added year

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#1434569 - 21/09/2017 13:10 Re: September 21st onwards, possible record heat during September 2017 [Re: DerekHV]
Rob G Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/07/2003
Posts: 673
Loc: Porters Retreat NSW
The forecast high for Saturday here is 25C. Around this area official weather station are few and their observations are not continuous. Nonetheless 25.6C in Oberon town on September 24th 1965 and 23.9C at Gurnang on September 26th 1965 are stand outs.

The following histogram shows the frequency of 20C+ September days recorded at Bathurst Ag each decade since 1908 inclusive (one cross represents 10 days). The big spike includes the Millennium Drought 2000-2006. There certainly seems to have been a step shift in September climate since the turn of this century - at least in this part of NSW.
Code:
         +
         +
         ++
  +      ++
 ++      ++
 +++   + ++
+++++ +++++
+++++++++++
+++++++++++
+++++++++++

Looks like it will be almost as hot again around the middle of next week. Odd increasingly favour a more humid, moist October the longer these patterns drag on.

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#1434571 - 21/09/2017 13:18 Re: September 21st onwards, possible record heat during September 2017 [Re: DerekHV]
DerekHV Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 841
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Heat is building in the NW area of the state, many centres now forecasting 40C on Saturday.
Singleton in the Hunter Valley going for 37C on Saturday.
After a brief cool down on Sunday, there could be a 2nd crack at the record by mid next week as well.

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#1434572 - 21/09/2017 13:24 Re: September 21st onwards, possible record heat during September 2017 [Re: DerekHV]
kizz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2002
Posts: 1868
Loc: Beacon Hill, Sydney 152m asl
A snippet from one of the news feeds on this site quoting a hotel proprietor in Bourke.

"Out here it gets to 50 degrees in summer, so 40 doesn't scare us. "

Now has someone told the BoM about these 50 degree temperatures? I'm sure people like Blair would be interested in this? poke

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#1434573 - 21/09/2017 13:25 Re: September 21st onwards, possible record heat during September 2017 [Re: DerekHV]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9844
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Dust off the shorts n thongs smile

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#1434574 - 21/09/2017 13:29 Re: September 21st onwards, possible record heat during September 2017 [Re: DaveM]
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4346
Loc: NSW Port Stephens
Originally Posted By: DaveM
Dust off the shorts n thongs smile


Did that 6 weeks ago!!
_________________________
Rainfall
MTD 15.9mm
YTD 1110.3mm
https://www.flickr.com/photos/eddygroot/
YNWA

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#1434593 - 21/09/2017 15:39 Re: September 21st onwards, possible record heat during September 2017 [Re: kizz]
DerekHV Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 841
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Originally Posted By: kizz
A snippet from one of the news feeds on this site quoting a hotel proprietor in Bourke.

"Out here it gets to 50 degrees in summer, so 40 doesn't scare us. "

Now has someone told the BoM about these 50 degree temperatures? I'm sure people like Blair would be interested in this? poke



Yes I am sure the hotel owner has recorded 50C under his front porch or verandah.
Just not an official weather station though.
But 40C will be impressive if it gets there.
Birdsville and the Qld channel country look to crack it first on Friday, then the heat will track into NSW.

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#1434615 - 21/09/2017 19:38 Re: September 21st onwards, possible record heat during September 2017 [Re: DerekHV]
DerekHV Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 841
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Saturday now upgraded to 37C locally, easily a record.
Wanaaring now going for 40C on Saturday and next Wednesday.

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#1434675 - 22/09/2017 11:11 Re: September 21st onwards, possible record heat during September 2017 [Re: DerekHV]
Steve777 Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3597
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
OH has nearly made its forecast max (28), having reached 26.8 a little while ago, but the sea breeze is trying to get going there.

Beautiful outside, warm, clear sky, gentle breezes.

September sunshine hours are tracking at 9.6 per day. Apart from being rainless, it's been almost cloudless.

It's now looking very dry around here. Good rain in early June kept lawns and gardens healthy for a while but I think that's all been used up.


Edited by Steve777 (22/09/2017 11:15)

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#1434686 - 22/09/2017 11:53 Re: September 21st onwards, possible record heat during September 2017 [Re: Steve777]
DerekHV Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 841
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Originally Posted By: Steve777
OH has nearly made its forecast max (28), having reached 26.8 a little while ago, but the sea breeze is trying to get going there.

Beautiful outside, warm, clear sky, gentle breezes.

September sunshine hours are tracking at 9.6 per day. Apart from being rainless, it's been almost cloudless.

It's now looking very dry around here. Good rain in early June kept lawns and gardens healthy for a while but I think that's all been used up.


I don't think this event is going to penetrate the coast by the looks of it.
Certainly no records in danger in Sydney city, other than outer western suburbs, Hunter Valley and inland areas of the state.

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#1434689 - 22/09/2017 12:57 Re: September 21st onwards, possible record heat during September 2017 [Re: DerekHV]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9844
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Nice little diurnal range here today - min of about -1 and so far up to 25.

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#1434716 - 22/09/2017 14:45 Re: September 21st onwards, possible record heat during September 2017 [Re: DerekHV]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Incredibly dry here today, 25 at Moss Vale with 12% humidity. But down to single digits in the west of the state like 4-5% humidity in some places. So amazingly dry airmass.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1434759 - 22/09/2017 16:34 Re: September 21st onwards, possible record heat during September 2017 [Re: DerekHV]
Steve777 Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3597
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
The September Equinox in Sydney is tomorrow, Saturday, 23 September 2017 at 6:02 am AEST. If we had a record for the hottest Spring equinox, tomorrow would be set to break it.

OH's max forecast for tomorrow remains at 33, Penrith and Richmond have been bumped up to 37, a new record for September if it comes off.

Sunday has been bumped up to 33 for OH, 35 at Penrith and Richmond.


Edited by Steve777 (22/09/2017 16:35)

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#1434760 - 22/09/2017 16:35 Re: September 21st onwards, possible record heat during September 2017 [Re: DerekHV]
J Pabo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/10/2012
Posts: 347
Loc: Clydesdale NSW
Originally Posted By: DerekHV
Singleton in the Hunter Valley going for 37C on Saturday.


What happened to spring????

I think the seasons for us is now as follows:

July to September - Windy Wind
October to December - Hot as Hell
January to March - Sun's Surface
April to June - Water wishing

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#1434779 - 22/09/2017 19:01 Re: September 21st onwards, possible record heat during September 2017 [Re: J Pabo]
DerekHV Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 841
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Originally Posted By: J Pabo
Originally Posted By: DerekHV
Singleton in the Hunter Valley going for 37C on Saturday.


What happened to spring????

I think the seasons for us is now as follows:

July to September - Windy Wind
October to December - Hot as Hell
January to March - Sun's Surface
April to June - Water wishing


Yep, the seasons are a changing.
Seems we do not have genuine shoulder seasons anymore, which is usually the best time of the year imo.
Tomorrow is going to be interesting, esp after a 30C diurnal range in Singo today, and 27C here. I will be working in Whittingham tomorrow.
Newcastle (Nobbys Head) also going for 33C on Sat and 34C on Sun, could get close to a record on that headland station as well.

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#1434792 - 22/09/2017 22:09 Re: September 21st onwards, possible record heat during September 2017 [Re: DerekHV]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
I would not rule out a 39C in Sydney tomorrow, maybe not at Obs Hill, but in the west. Provided the NW winds completely mix down. 38C (with possible 39) should be a given at home if the NWer takes over. Will be 31C here at least. Records will be axed far and wide tomorrow!! A historic day coming up.


Edited by Wave Rider (22/09/2017 22:10)
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1434798 - 22/09/2017 22:43 Re: September 21st onwards, possible record heat during September 2017 [Re: DerekHV]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Btw "here" is Bowral.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1434808 - 23/09/2017 07:56 Re: September 21st onwards, possible record heat during September 2017 [Re: DerekHV]
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4346
Loc: NSW Port Stephens
I wonder how much of this cloud will spoil the party??

I thought I heard the storm bird the other morning and I was right, he was going off his tree at 4.30am this morning.
_________________________
Rainfall
MTD 15.9mm
YTD 1110.3mm
https://www.flickr.com/photos/eddygroot/
YNWA

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#1434816 - 23/09/2017 08:17 Re: September 21st onwards, possible record heat during September 2017 [Re: DerekHV]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Yeah pretty cloudy here in the Highlands too Eddy, hopefully it doesn't spoil today's potential.

Will be some very impressive diurnal ranges today. Goulburn down to -0.3 this morning and should reach 30C and Canberra about 1 degree. Even Camden down to 6.5C this morning and should get up to 38C today, so diurnal ranges of above 30!

Very warm here despite cloud, already up past 20C and with 9% humidity and dew point of -13.6C.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1434826 - 23/09/2017 09:32 Re: September 21st onwards, possible record heat during September 2017 [Re: DerekHV]
Steve777 Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3597
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Something we haven't seen much of lately - an overcast sky. The cloud must have arrived around dawn, given that places that get inversions had pretty chilly (single figure) minima. Judging by the Satellite, the cloud has been back building since then.

The BOM's updated the forecast at 8:19 to 'morning cloud clearing' and is still going for 33 / 37 for OH / Penrith. The 'look out the window' test would disagree. Not only is it cloudy but there's very little wind about. Wind observations are all over the place.

That being said, there's warm air about, it's already 22 at Mt Boyce, equivalent to 29 at sea level. The flags on the Harbour Bridge show a brisk NW'er.

We shall see.

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