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#1434877 - 23/09/2017 15:58 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1107
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Can't Beleive i'm starting this thread in September but the first Watch and Act alert has been issued for a bushfire near Buchan South. Aircraft have been deployed in what I believe is the earliest dispatch of Aircraft for a bushfire in Victorian History.

Quote:
This Watch & Act message is being issued for Buchan, Buchan South, Double Bridges, Nowa Nowa, Timbarra.

There is a bushfire at Buchan South that is not yet under control.
Don't wait, leaving now is the safest option - conditions may change and get worse very quickly. Emergency Services may not be able to help you if you decide to stay.
What you should do:
When you leave remember to take your pets, mobile phone and medications.
Travel to the home of family or friends that are away from the warning area.
Keep the roads clear so emergency services can respond.
If you are away from home do not return.
Monitor conditions for changes in the situation.
Impacts in your area:
Smoke can be seen from nearby communities.
Bushfires can spread quickly and are extremely dangerous.
This message was issued by the Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning.
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1434891 - 23/09/2017 18:07 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1107
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
2 more fires at Watch and Act now:

LAKE VICTORIA RD, NEWLANDS ARM

Quote:
This Watch & Act message is being issued for Newlands Arm.

There is a bushfire at LAKE VICTORIA RD, NEWLANDS ARM that is not yet under control.
The bushfire is travelling in a southerly direction towards Banksia Peninsula.
Don't wait, leaving now is the safest option - conditions may change and get worse very quickly. Emergency Services may not be able to help you if you decide to stay.
What you should do:
When you leave remember to take your pets, mobile phone and medications.
Travel to the home of family or friends that are away from the warning area.
Keep the roads clear so emergency services can respond.
If you are away from home do not return.
Monitor conditions for changes in the situation.
Impacts in your area:
The following roads are closed: Lake Victoria Rd


And

LOWER DARGO

Quote:
This Watch & Act message is for Black Snake Creek, Budgee Budgee, Cowa, Dargo, Hawkhurst, Maguires, Miowera, Waterford.

There is a grassfire at LOWER DARGO that is not yet under control
This grassfire is travelling in a south-easterly direction towards Lower Dargo.
Don't wait, leaving now is the safest option - conditions may change and get worse very quickly. Emergency Services may not be able to help you if you decide to stay.
What you should do:

The best protection from radiant heat is distance.



Aircraft have been requested from NSW to support fire opps in Eastern Victoria
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1434895 - 23/09/2017 18:48 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2077
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Thanks for those reports loganski.

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#1434933 - 23/09/2017 22:26 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 801
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Was (as I wrote on the other thread) a wild day. Logansi has covered things well above. (Thanks for creating the thread!).

But I just realized that the fire at Timbarra (NW of Buchan) is at 1252 ha. South of that is the Buchan South fire at (latest report) 144 ha. A 1200 ha fire at this time of year is a bit beyond belief.

A gale force SWly went through here after dark tonight. No rain. I think these fires will not easily be rounded up.

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#1434951 - 24/09/2017 06:57 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2077
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Things have expanded overnight TB, that gale force sounds like the S/W here just before 1900hrs, roared in the Red Gums and expected branches down.

Timbarra 2700+. That one near The Twins is in some steep country if it creeps over the S/E side, been some big fires come from Hotham area. Not many tracks thru' some of the large areas there.

Buchan South 400+.

At least a much cooler day is forecast.

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#1434986 - 24/09/2017 12:51 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2077
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Timbarra fire, 7,400h, not hot but WINDY !

eg - Gelantipy not that far away gusting to 70kph

Saw 23C home, blowing N/W, NNW moderate to strong winds.



Edited by samboz (24/09/2017 12:55)

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#1434990 - 24/09/2017 14:04 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1107
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Most of that run was Yesterday and last night, lack of aircraft meant no accurate size data.

Amazing now 3 fires over 100ha with the new start at Marlo up to 350ha, Dargo fire also making a run so it may be the 4th.

CFA/FFMV are struggling to seem to be underprepared, lack of aircraft (tenders are still out!), lack of crew on standby etc.
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1434991 - 24/09/2017 14:30 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 801
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Hard to blame CFA/FFMV for not being quite ready I guess - Sept 24th!!! FFMV won't even have its project firefighters signed up as yet I'm presuming.

Logansi -any info you get on Dargo is (selfishly) of interest to me. Thanks for your work!

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#1434992 - 24/09/2017 14:53 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1107
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Yeah too right, I know a couple of seasonal guys who are in Eastern Metro who have been called up 2 do there 3 day refresher course this week so they can be deployed ASAP. We expecting to start in 1st week of November.

Will do, not hearing much as all my usual sources haven't started yet this year!

This must come as a major warning to Victoria especially you guys out East, during the last 2 seasons we haven't seen many fires through the high country due to high moisture levels never getting into critical levels - this year they are there and its September. Watch out every time storms hit the rangers.

Couple of guys have said it feels like the 02/03 and 06/07 seasons

Edit Dargo fire just got downgraded to Advice

Also this is from ABC Gippsland:

Quote:
A big bushfire north west of Buchan is being fanned by strong, swirling winds. It's already burnt 7,400 hectares and has a 50km perimeter of running fire. "It's burning very readily in the forested country, " Ben Rankin, incident controller.


Edited by logansi (24/09/2017 14:57)
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1434994 - 24/09/2017 15:18 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 801
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Thanks Logansi.

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#1434995 - 24/09/2017 15:20 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Dawoodman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 1234
Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
The curing maps weren't starting until October so no FDRs until then as well!
_________________________
The storms are always beyond the horizon, behind the trees or parting above your head

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#1434998 - 24/09/2017 15:44 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: Dawoodman]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1107
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Originally Posted By: Dawoodman
The curing maps weren't starting until October so no FDRs until then as well!


Nope
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1435010 - 24/09/2017 17:28 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3825
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
I seem to recall a largish fire in East Gippsland (between Orbost and Cann River) in September a few years ago.

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#1435013 - 24/09/2017 18:00 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: Blair Trewin]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1107
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Originally Posted By: Blair Trewin
I seem to recall a largish fire in East Gippsland (between Orbost and Cann River) in September a few years ago.



You are correct, there was also the Lancefield fires in 2015, however, both those fires were escaped burns what makes these fires unique is they are self-starts (lightning) its much easier for a big burn to get out and burn a few hundred Hectares that a small tree fire caused by lightning.
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1435022 - 24/09/2017 19:55 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: Blair Trewin]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 801
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Originally Posted By: Blair Trewin
I seem to recall a largish fire in East Gippsland (between Orbost and Cann River) in September a few years ago.


Hi Blair. I don't remember - but you are probably right.

Yesterday was a extraordinary day followed by a very windy night and windy again today ... but, even so, I think the current fire situation in East Gippsland is indicative of a a very large moisture deficit. A significant deficit.

I'll write more tomorrow but have had a long day. Very appreciative of our opportunities to converse and collaborate on this site.

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#1435030 - 24/09/2017 20:37 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1107
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Here are some Ground Moisture details from BOM

They use Drought Factor and KBDI

For those that don't know

Drought Factor is:
Drought Factor, which ranges from 0 to 10. If this is multiplied by 10 and called a percent, it gives the percentage of fine fuel that would be removed by a fire under the current conditions.
The DF is based on recent rainfall and on the Byram-Keetch Drought Index. The BKDI is the number of mm of rain needed to saturate the soil, and ranges up to a maximum of 200mm.

KBDI is:
The KBDI is expressed as a scale from 0200, where the number represents
the amounts of rainfall (in millimetres) to return the soil to saturation.

COMBIENBAR:
DF: 9.3
KBDI: 92

BAIRNSDALE AIRPORT
DF:8.3
KBDI:59

MT MOORNAPA AWS
DF:7.2
KBDI: 36

Orbost:
DF:8.6
KBDI:69

Those figures are massive (Mildura also has an extraordinary DF of 10 and KBDI of 132), they are what you would expect to see in Mid January not the first month of Spring. This is all on the back of lack of rain, for example, Orbost has had 4 months in a row where rainfall failed to reach 50% of the average with July being only 13.5mm a record low. Mildura has had a whole sum of 6mm in the last 30 days, in terms of impact on fuel moisture - nothing.
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1435066 - 25/09/2017 08:55 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2077
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
If this respite in weather was mid fire season it would be a gift from the gods.
Good things will get done as the weather moves further east - Hopefully !! - ACCESS a little iffy re exact rainfall, in any event it will be cooler, you'd have to say cloudy and a strong chance of rain during the week.

Didn't research "wind", have to hit the road.

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#1435180 - 26/09/2017 16:16 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1107
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Finally came across some fire maps for you guys

TIMBARRA:


upload photos to the internet

Marlo:

_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1435192 - 26/09/2017 18:01 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7378
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Thanks Logansi

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#1435197 - 26/09/2017 20:40 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 801
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Thanks Logansi for all the info you send our way. The DF info really makes a point - I've been talking of a "moisture deficit" but the 8.5s really do make a point.

And thanks for the maps. The Timbarra fire certainly did make a good SEly run. Interesting for a fire in that steep forested country.

Things are much quieter now - the few mm on the fire grounds wouldn't be significant in summer but (surely!)in Sept will make a difference.

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