Looks like there is some sort of rain
Sliding over those sw fires atm?
Hopefully that helps a little

Situation sounds complicated and difficult around Timboon/Scotts Crk.

Individual fire in the Terang/Cobden was listed as 11,000 ha at 3 am.Westerly winds look to be across the fire grounds now.

Terrible fire situation in S/W Vic, hoping for the best outcomes for residents.

This issue of fires starting from power lines and huge numbers of trees coming down every windy event bears close examination!

In Sale, almost calm, warm night min round 24C. Sprinkled rain didn't register in gauge.

So far, looking OK for McDonalds Track fire near ELLINBANK. 7kph at Nilma Nth from WSW BOM Obs.

Yep samboz, fire didn't escape which is a good
Effort by all concerned so u would say
It should be all fine now?
Fair bit of wind still to come today but it's
A lot cooler so hopefully it's fine.

Few spots of rain here now.

Fire is burning up near gembrook which
Has a watch and act on it

Will have to wait a bit I reckon. Its increasingly windy here (NE burbs) last 30 minutes.

Looking at the BOM forecast dooga, only 15C @ 11am when the wind builds to 54kph from the W. RH reasonable also, WATL says 5-10mm.

Any outbreak has a good chance of happening in the first hour ('ish) maybe 1/2hr, could be a lot worse.

Analyse the BOM site below, gusts as you mentioned some time back will be quite high, 70kph+ prob.

The biggest unknown is the state of the fire ground at McDonalds Track - been plenty of time to manicure it into preparedness for this well known bit of mongrel weather.

Will keep fingers crossed for your neck of the woods.


http://www.bom.gov.au/places/vic/ellinbank/forecast/detailed/#d2018-03-18

Raining here now which is just wetting the ground
Nothing special

Very curious to see how today plays out,what
Effect this bit of rain has on the fires and when
This wind really gets hold again even tho it's cooler
Will it still have any effect?

Two new starts south of Licola (north of Heyfield). Presumably lightning starts.

Look at the RH and when it starts to change. Your forest fuels take several hours + to react to that change in RH as it slowly works it's way in, so any light rain or extra humidity will have no effect on fire behaviour for a few hours.

I don't have the calculations open in front of me but I suspect it's so dry that the difference between 20 and 30C won't be particularly significant to the end result if the fire is already flaming given the wind. If it hasn't broken out several hours after the humidity comes up I'd be a lot more willing to say it's not going to be a problem today.

Spot on TB, comparing EmergVic and the Lightning maps they line up.

Sprinkle of rain and dash of wind in Sale, heard the thunder about the time of those lightning strikes.

Guessing the rain will maintain RH a bit later into the day dooga.

WINd very very strong all of a sudden here now!!
Swung westerly and can now smell smoke

Larritts Lane, Glenburn is a Make Tankers 15 Grass and Scrub, - air support requested - started as a shed fire thats why it's listed as structure

UPDATE: MAKE TANKERS 20, STRIKE TEAMS X4 AND 4X HELITACKS

Could be real issues, area has already deployed strike teams to the west and large number of aircraft already committed

^^ Watch and Act for Above fire

This Watch & Act message is for residents in Larritts Lane, Glenburn.

There is a fast moving grassfire at Larritts Lane, Glenburn that is not yet under control.
This grassfire is travelling in a easterly direction towards Devlins Bridge.

How did the fire started???? By overnight lighting or by silly people.

The SW fires were mostly powerlines down I believe. EMV have the perimeters for some up now. Don't know how old.

6mm here with that rain band.
noticed a fair amount of lightning came
Through with that as well

Going OK so far dooga', based on Nilma Nth BOM Obs, wind abated a little this stage.

NilmaNth - 14.4C, RH 91, WNW 19k gusting 28k & 6.2mm rain.

BawBaw 28 gusting 46

Hoping yr obs are along these lines d'.

Yep 6mm up here but sun has just
Came out and really starting to blow
Big time in last 5min samboz