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#1457735 - 18/03/2018 13:09 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1260
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Could be and interest day?
Back around Melb rh has dropped away with
The sun out and plenty of wind

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#1457737 - 18/03/2018 13:17 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1260
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Big big winds here now swirling all directions here

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#1457738 - 18/03/2018 13:17 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 786
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Very Strong SWly here. Some drizzle cleared quickly. A fire start just SW of me caused a few minutes of frenetic activity ... fire quickly declared "safe".

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#1457743 - 18/03/2018 13:26 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Dawoodman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 1230
Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
yundool watch and act
_________________________
The storms are always beyond the horizon, behind the trees or parting above your head

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#1457748 - 18/03/2018 14:07 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1260
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Suns out wind is unbelievable!!

Would have to be easily 70-80km

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#1457749 - 18/03/2018 14:08 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1260
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
This will test fires for sure

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#1457751 - 18/03/2018 14:19 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 786
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
You'd be right I think Dooga. Wind not so bad here atm but I see from radar stronger wind at stations to my west - so i guess it's on the way. Let's hope Seaview controls hold. And will be interesting to see if Tamboritha holds. But the day is far from over I think in the SW of Vic.

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#1457752 - 18/03/2018 14:28 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1260
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
At 2pm nilma gusting to 80km
Hogan island 132km
Yanakie 107km

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#1457789 - 18/03/2018 17:31 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2521
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
I thought get smoke from SW and didn't.

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#1457794 - 18/03/2018 18:00 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2521
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
A fire that has burnt out thousands of hectares in the south-west and killed scores of livestock started near a ‘rotten’ power pole, a farmer says. So my saying power companies fault for not replacing rotten pole for safety.

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#1457799 - 18/03/2018 18:30 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1028
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
So sad seeing so much destruction from fires, as someone who has followed fires for years I have never seen such rapid development of multiple fires since Black Saturday.

Between 920 and 10pm last night the number of fires went from no to more than dozen. Listening to it on the scanner was amazing/shocking.

Things seem to be much quieter now, but it will take years for the area to rebuild - damage all caused in just a few hours.
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1457805 - 18/03/2018 18:57 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 786
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
The main fires in the south-west have been mapped and are on the emergency.vic site. They are fully classical western district grass fire shape. They show very little north-easterly escape which is superb and , if it's the result of fire-fighting strategies it is, under the atrocious circumstances, a superb outcome.

I'll write more tonight about western district fire behaviour when I've a chnce and located some books I've got on it.

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#1457815 - 18/03/2018 20:11 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
dlcat1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 901
Loc: Melbourne (NE burbs)
Look forward to it TB

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#1457817 - 18/03/2018 20:21 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: ThunderBob]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1028
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Originally Posted By: ThunderBob
The main fires in the south-west have been mapped and are on the emergency.vic site. They are fully classical western district grass fire shape. They show very little north-easterly escape which is superb and , if it's the result of fire-fighting strategies it is, under the atrocious circumstances, a superb outcome.

I'll write more tonight about western district fire behaviour when I've a chnce and located some books I've got on it.


Yes they definitely do, i think the main reason for the lack of North Eastern movement was the rain which fell around 6am, all reports were that especially at the Terang and Garvoc fire is that there was very little activity during the day at all.

As one volunteer friend i quickly spoke to said "when the sun went down there was no fire, when it came up again it was all over but a wift of smoke in air"

Maps also show come lucky escapes:

Cobden - fire stayed about 2km west of town.
Garvoc - the fire only hit the eastern side missing the majority of homes
Camperdown fire - Lake prevented spread to SE otherwise it too would have more than likely run 20km SE
Hawkesdale - Fire was stopped less than 2km north of Town and was on a direct line to impact.
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1457819 - 18/03/2018 20:36 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 786
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Continuing re western district grass fires: the is a book: The Fires of 12 February 1977 in the Western District of Victoria by McArthur (the developer of the FDI we now use), Cheney and Barber. They produced a report on these 1977 fires and published through the CSRIO. The book is held by the National Library: https://trove.nla.gov.au/work/23146514?selectedversion=NBD2419457

The 1977 fires burned at Byaduck, Pura Pura, Penshurst, Tatyoon-Stretham, Gelengower-Creswick, Wallinduc-Cressy, Beeca,Mingay-Lismore, Little River, Waubra. The fires on Feb 12 burned approx 100,000 ha

What is remarkable if you look at the maps of this weekend's fires and aerial photos and maps published in this book re 1977 is the near identical shape.

What is missing, though, from the 2018 fires is the north-easterly break-aways. The authors of the book make as a major recommendation that the wind-change and break-aways be anticipated and prepared for. I believe that it was from their recommendation that this approach to (particularly grass fire) fire-fighting in Victoria and elsewhere came.

For anyone interested in the history of bushfire in Victoria and esp in western Victoria, the book makes reference and comparison with the grass fires in the Western District on January 14, 1944 - fires which burned 440,000 ha in a day between Hamilton and Geelong.

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#1457821 - 18/03/2018 20:38 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 786
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Thanks Logansi. I wrote and posted my second post about fire shape before I had seen yours (You obviously posted as I was writing.)

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#1457877 - 19/03/2018 11:45 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2521
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Lighting is very hard to confirm did start the fires as i checked https://www.lightningmaps.org/blitzortung/oceania

That the lighting about 200 stokes at wrong time and wrong place when very dry and windy at same time.

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#1457915 - 19/03/2018 16:45 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2007
Loc: Sale, NthGippsland, S/E VIC
Pleasing that our dooga' ( and others of course) came out the scenario in his locale w/o to much impact other than some grey hair grin

Vic. was very lucky to have zero human fatality from the S/W fires -(according to Premiers news report today.)



Edited by samboz (19/03/2018 16:46)
_________________________
2018 RAINFALL. JAN-53.4MM FEB-14MM MARCH-18MM APRIL-7.5MM MAY-28MM JUN-11MM to 0900 18th

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#1457925 - 19/03/2018 17:51 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1260
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Thanks s👍

My opinion with the Seaview fire is that I think
They pretty much had it all under controll and
We're be over cautious with the warning and information
They gave out which is a good thing.
If it were a true 'going' fire it would have ran and
Jumped out big time sat/sat night and yesterday
With the wind that was thrown at it.

Feel very sad for those in the south west
Was an incredible bad night down there!!

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#1460725 - 03/04/2018 18:02 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7000
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
..way out there, but if GFS is to be believed, we Vic's might have to endure another late season fire risk day next Wednesday??



...hope the dept of scorched earth dont have too many planned burns underway in risky areas ahead of this!

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