Page 4 of 18 < 1 2 3 4 5 6 ... 17 18 >
Topic Options
#1442119 - 23/11/2017 16:49 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 746
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Samboz: grass is dry(ish)- green(ish) is some gullies etc, dry on many slopes. The bush is crackling dry: under the right conditions the bush would be explosive.

Got a cell out btwn Stratford and Bairnsdale atm which (he checks radar) is er, er ...evaporating. Everything is going Ne today.

Massive number of lightning shrikes east and north of Orbost. Fair number of fire starts in that area but, as I said earlier, would expect there will be more.

Top
#1442123 - 23/11/2017 17:21 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1026
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
ATM main fire is the HOTHAM HEIGHTS - DARGO RD fire which has 8 aircraft working on it. Numerous aircraft have been rushed into service today to cover the state. Currently 8 fires over the high country, however aircraft are up now so more may come in. An aircraft responding to the Hotham fire just found the Seaton fire on route.


Edited by logansi (23/11/2017 17:22)
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

Top
#1442132 - 23/11/2017 18:48 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1936
Loc: Sale, NthGippsland, S/E VIC
Some big fires come out of that (H/H - Dargo Rd) area loganski, pretty much inaccessible except for aircraft.

Steep country so it travels uphill with rapidity when favourable
conditions present.
_________________________
2018 RAINFALL. JAN 53.4MM FEB 14MM MARCH 18MM APRIL-

Top
#1442134 - 23/11/2017 19:04 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: ThunderBob]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1936
Loc: Sale, NthGippsland, S/E VIC
Originally Posted By: ThunderBob
Samboz: grass is dry(ish)- green(ish) is some gullies etc, dry on many slopes. The bush is crackling dry: under the right conditions the bush would be explosive.

Got a cell out btwn Stratford and Bairnsdale atm which (he checks radar) is er, er ...evaporating. Everything is going Ne today.

Massive number of lightning shrikes east and north of Orbost. Fair number of fire starts in that area but, as I said earlier, would expect there will be more.


Sounds like here TB, on the turn.

After numerous "rain threatening radar pics" have hit about 1mm.

Still conditions, lots of thunder, almost constant and down to 22C, didn't see therm. today but close to 33C'ish at guess.
_________________________
2018 RAINFALL. JAN 53.4MM FEB 14MM MARCH 18MM APRIL-

Top
#1442138 - 23/11/2017 19:38 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1235
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Fires popping up everywhere now north of
Here around mt Tanjil north west of willow
Grove! And another start up north of rawson.

Are we looking at any more widespread rain
Over the next 3-4 days or just more hit
Miss storms?

Top
#1442197 - 24/11/2017 11:16 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 746
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
A number of new spots emerging this morning north of Bairnsdale around Deptford area.CFA have been monitoring but now all handed over to DEWLP.

Top
#1442199 - 24/11/2017 11:33 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: ThunderBob]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1026
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Originally Posted By: ThunderBob
A number of new spots emerging this morning north of Bairnsdale around Deptford area.CFA have been monitoring but now all handed over to DEWLP.


Yep Birdog 393 is up in the area now so don't be surprised if a few more pop up. Air Attack this morning is focused on the Hotham Heights and Crooked River fires with 10 aircraft between them


Edited by logansi (24/11/2017 11:36)
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

Top
#1442202 - 24/11/2017 11:43 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 746
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Thanks Logansi. Conditions have been more-or-less calm and quite humid. But N/NW is starting to intermittently pick up a bit here. Bush, as I said yesterday, is very dry.

Top
#1442203 - 24/11/2017 11:46 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 746
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Seem to be picking up smoke on BoM radar at or near mapped site of fire listed as "14 km north of Crooked River". If that is right it may mean that that fire is getting a head.

Top
#1442204 - 24/11/2017 12:05 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: ThunderBob]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1026
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Originally Posted By: ThunderBob
Thanks Logansi. Conditions have been more-or-less calm and quite humid. But N/NW is starting to intermittently pick up a bit here. Bush, as I said yesterday, is very dry.
I think biggest concern is the number of fires (with lightning forecast for many days ahead) ultimately you end up stretching you resources to much and cant deal with everything - then a hot windy day comes along and you still have untracked fires. This is what happened during the great alpine fires (2003-4 and 2006-7) those events saw 90+ fires ignited and around 80% of them were contained but the 10 or so that weren't became the long running fires


Edited by logansi (24/11/2017 12:05)
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

Top
#1442207 - 24/11/2017 12:20 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 746
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
You're right, Logansi.

Top
#1442230 - 24/11/2017 14:44 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1235
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Fire South east of noojee jumped out a
Fair bit today out to 10ha, started at 1ha
I think.

Can see smoke from the above fire and the
Fire just north of mt Tanjil

Top
#1442322 - 25/11/2017 19:03 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1026
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
The number of lightning strike fires detected across the east has exploded in the last couple of hours with 18 fires classed as Not Yet Under Control and another 15 contained or controlled. Aircraft ops are currently focused on the Matlock fire and cluster of fires just north of Cann River. 3 Fire spotting planes are up trying to cover as much ground before last light.
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

Top
#1442323 - 25/11/2017 19:16 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1235
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Logansi - how are u seeing this summer
Shaping up fire wise?

Talking to a few people around my area
And seeing all these starts up in the bush
It's pretty dry this early on!

But they are also talking La Niņa event?
So it's very interesting

Top
#1442465 - 27/11/2017 16:29 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 746
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Dooga, I'll put in my two bob's worth. I don't think there's any way to know whether or not it'll be a significantly bad year: the only time you can say that is when you're entering summer in a long drought (viz: '39, 83, 07) but even then you need the "blowup day".

But, in terms of central and east Gippsland, as I've said before, there's a very large moisture deficit; the past week has made no difference. I was in the bush east of Cann River last week, in bush that supposed to be rain forest: the ground was dusty and the vegetation crunchy.

But things can change: see what happens this Fri/Sat: if we got heavy falls and then Dec was a "normal" Dec, the situation might change.

All I can say is, at this stage, given the current conditions and if the season continues as it has for the past few months, this part of the state has the *potential* for a very bad fire season.


Edited by ThunderBob (27/11/2017 16:30)

Top
#1442480 - 27/11/2017 17:55 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1235
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Thanks 'tb'👍
Yeah I'm thinking this next front later this
Week could be crucial to how things
Shape up moving forward!(in terms of how
Early it starts)

Top
#1442541 - 28/11/2017 08:05 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: doogasnow]
Dawoodman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 1229
Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
Originally Posted By: doogasnow
Thanks 'tb'👍
Yeah I'm thinking this next front later this
Week could be crucial to how things
Shape up moving forward!(in terms of how
Early it starts)


tbh it has already started. We have already had the Buchan fire. I am not a fan of the "this is going to be a bad bushfire year" as they have said that for the past 3 years and, apart from some rather small in comparison events such as lorne and lancfield, not much has happened in the way of major bushfires. Fortunately it has been fairly benign but people will soon get to the point of complacency and it will be in a bad fire year. I prefer to say, this year has a higher fuel load than the previous year and we have had below average rainfall and victoria is prone to bushfires so the risk is increasing in places that haven't had a fire. I agree with TB, you need the blow up day. You can have a terrible bushfire in a year with low risk and you can have no bad incidents in a prone season.

Tomorrow may be an interesting day with the heat but we have been lucky and we aren't getting the windy days lining up with the peak of the heat
_________________________
The storms are always beyond the horizon, behind the trees or parting above your head

Top
#1442543 - 28/11/2017 08:12 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1936
Loc: Sale, NthGippsland, S/E VIC
Last three posts spot on IME.

The constant harping by the Emerg Services Comm. is a pita, the reality is that pretty much every Summer in Vic has the potential to be a "bad Fire Season".

Some rain, anything over an inch, this coming event would be handy.
_________________________
2018 RAINFALL. JAN 53.4MM FEB 14MM MARCH 18MM APRIL-

Top
#1442902 - 30/11/2017 14:41 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1026
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
The rain may arrive soon but today is turning into a very active fire day, numerous major jobs, including Stawell and fires near Cann River. 25 of 28 aircraft online are currently active, ironically including 2 choppers doing fire spotting which were brought online for flood watch and surveillance. Deep Lead/Stawell fire is currently getting 4 strike teams - lots of new starts in the west thanks to lightning.

Only in Victoria would you need to evacuate due to a fire one day and flooding the next.


Edited by logansi (30/11/2017 14:43)
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

Top
#1442940 - 30/11/2017 17:26 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1026
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
This Watch & Act message is being issued for Tamboon, Wingan River, Cann River, and Noorinbee.

There is a bushfire at 16KM ESE CANN RIVER that is not yet under control.
The bushfire is travelling in a south westerly direction towards Thurra Road.
Don't wait, leaving now is the safest option - conditions may change and get worse very quickly. Emergency Services may not be able to help you if you decide to stay.
What you should do:
When you leave remember to take your pets, mobile phone and medications.
Travel to the home of family or friends that are away from the warning area.
Keep the roads clear so emergency services can respond.
If you are away from home do not return.
Monitor conditions for changes in the situation.
Impacts in your area:
The following roads are closed: East Wingan Road, West Wingan Road, Stony Peak Road, Thurra Road with possibility of Point Hicks Road being closed too.


- Expect the Princess HWY to be closed soon too
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

Top
Page 4 of 18 < 1 2 3 4 5 6 ... 17 18 >


Who's Online
6 registered (DarrylS, Raindammit, Kino, Aussea, 2 invisible), 346 Guests and 3 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
Pickles
Forum Stats
29543 Members
32 Forums
23882 Topics
1489328 Posts

Max Online: 2925 @ 02/02/2011 22:23
Satellite Image