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#1434877 - 23/09/2017 15:58 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Can't Beleive i'm starting this thread in September but the first Watch and Act alert has been issued for a bushfire near Buchan South. Aircraft have been deployed in what I believe is the earliest dispatch of Aircraft for a bushfire in Victorian History.

Quote:
This Watch & Act message is being issued for Buchan, Buchan South, Double Bridges, Nowa Nowa, Timbarra.

There is a bushfire at Buchan South that is not yet under control.
Don't wait, leaving now is the safest option - conditions may change and get worse very quickly. Emergency Services may not be able to help you if you decide to stay.
What you should do:
When you leave remember to take your pets, mobile phone and medications.
Travel to the home of family or friends that are away from the warning area.
Keep the roads clear so emergency services can respond.
If you are away from home do not return.
Monitor conditions for changes in the situation.
Impacts in your area:
Smoke can be seen from nearby communities.
Bushfires can spread quickly and are extremely dangerous.
This message was issued by the Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning.
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#1434891 - 23/09/2017 18:07 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
2 more fires at Watch and Act now:

LAKE VICTORIA RD, NEWLANDS ARM

Quote:
This Watch & Act message is being issued for Newlands Arm.

There is a bushfire at LAKE VICTORIA RD, NEWLANDS ARM that is not yet under control.
The bushfire is travelling in a southerly direction towards Banksia Peninsula.
Don't wait, leaving now is the safest option - conditions may change and get worse very quickly. Emergency Services may not be able to help you if you decide to stay.
What you should do:
When you leave remember to take your pets, mobile phone and medications.
Travel to the home of family or friends that are away from the warning area.
Keep the roads clear so emergency services can respond.
If you are away from home do not return.
Monitor conditions for changes in the situation.
Impacts in your area:
The following roads are closed: Lake Victoria Rd


And

LOWER DARGO

Quote:
This Watch & Act message is for Black Snake Creek, Budgee Budgee, Cowa, Dargo, Hawkhurst, Maguires, Miowera, Waterford.

There is a grassfire at LOWER DARGO that is not yet under control
This grassfire is travelling in a south-easterly direction towards Lower Dargo.
Don't wait, leaving now is the safest option - conditions may change and get worse very quickly. Emergency Services may not be able to help you if you decide to stay.
What you should do:

The best protection from radiant heat is distance.



Aircraft have been requested from NSW to support fire opps in Eastern Victoria
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Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1434895 - 23/09/2017 18:48 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1873
Loc: Gippsland, S/E VIC
Thanks for those reports loganski.
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mmSept-26mmOct-87mm Nov-30mm Dec-135mm =475mm

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#1434933 - 23/09/2017 22:26 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
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Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 675
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Was (as I wrote on the other thread) a wild day. Logansi has covered things well above. (Thanks for creating the thread!).

But I just realized that the fire at Timbarra (NW of Buchan) is at 1252 ha. South of that is the Buchan South fire at (latest report) 144 ha. A 1200 ha fire at this time of year is a bit beyond belief.

A gale force SWly went through here after dark tonight. No rain. I think these fires will not easily be rounded up.

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#1434951 - 24/09/2017 06:57 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
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Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1873
Loc: Gippsland, S/E VIC
Things have expanded overnight TB, that gale force sounds like the S/W here just before 1900hrs, roared in the Red Gums and expected branches down.

Timbarra 2700+. That one near The Twins is in some steep country if it creeps over the S/E side, been some big fires come from Hotham area. Not many tracks thru' some of the large areas there.

Buchan South 400+.

At least a much cooler day is forecast.
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mmSept-26mmOct-87mm Nov-30mm Dec-135mm =475mm

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#1434986 - 24/09/2017 12:51 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
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Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1873
Loc: Gippsland, S/E VIC
Timbarra fire, 7,400h, not hot but WINDY !

eg - Gelantipy not that far away gusting to 70kph

Saw 23C home, blowing N/W, NNW moderate to strong winds.



Edited by samboz (24/09/2017 12:55)
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mmSept-26mmOct-87mm Nov-30mm Dec-135mm =475mm

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#1434990 - 24/09/2017 14:04 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Most of that run was Yesterday and last night, lack of aircraft meant no accurate size data.

Amazing now 3 fires over 100ha with the new start at Marlo up to 350ha, Dargo fire also making a run so it may be the 4th.

CFA/FFMV are struggling to seem to be underprepared, lack of aircraft (tenders are still out!), lack of crew on standby etc.
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#1434991 - 24/09/2017 14:30 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
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Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 675
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Hard to blame CFA/FFMV for not being quite ready I guess - Sept 24th!!! FFMV won't even have its project firefighters signed up as yet I'm presuming.

Logansi -any info you get on Dargo is (selfishly) of interest to me. Thanks for your work!

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#1434992 - 24/09/2017 14:53 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Yeah too right, I know a couple of seasonal guys who are in Eastern Metro who have been called up 2 do there 3 day refresher course this week so they can be deployed ASAP. We expecting to start in 1st week of November.

Will do, not hearing much as all my usual sources haven't started yet this year!

This must come as a major warning to Victoria especially you guys out East, during the last 2 seasons we haven't seen many fires through the high country due to high moisture levels never getting into critical levels - this year they are there and its September. Watch out every time storms hit the rangers.

Couple of guys have said it feels like the 02/03 and 06/07 seasons

Edit Dargo fire just got downgraded to Advice

Also this is from ABC Gippsland:

Quote:
A big bushfire north west of Buchan is being fanned by strong, swirling winds. It's already burnt 7,400 hectares and has a 50km perimeter of running fire. "It's burning very readily in the forested country, " Ben Rankin, incident controller.


Edited by logansi (24/09/2017 14:57)
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#1434994 - 24/09/2017 15:18 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
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Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 675
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Thanks Logansi.

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#1434995 - 24/09/2017 15:20 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Dawoodman Offline
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Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 1216
Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
The curing maps weren't starting until October so no FDRs until then as well!
_________________________
The storms are always beyond the horizon, behind the trees or parting above your head

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#1434998 - 24/09/2017 15:44 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: Dawoodman]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Originally Posted By: Dawoodman
The curing maps weren't starting until October so no FDRs until then as well!


Nope
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#1435010 - 24/09/2017 17:28 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Blair Trewin Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3726
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
I seem to recall a largish fire in East Gippsland (between Orbost and Cann River) in September a few years ago.

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#1435013 - 24/09/2017 18:00 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: Blair Trewin]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Originally Posted By: Blair Trewin
I seem to recall a largish fire in East Gippsland (between Orbost and Cann River) in September a few years ago.



You are correct, there was also the Lancefield fires in 2015, however, both those fires were escaped burns what makes these fires unique is they are self-starts (lightning) its much easier for a big burn to get out and burn a few hundred Hectares that a small tree fire caused by lightning.
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#1435022 - 24/09/2017 19:55 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: Blair Trewin]
ThunderBob Offline
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Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 675
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Originally Posted By: Blair Trewin
I seem to recall a largish fire in East Gippsland (between Orbost and Cann River) in September a few years ago.


Hi Blair. I don't remember - but you are probably right.

Yesterday was a extraordinary day followed by a very windy night and windy again today ... but, even so, I think the current fire situation in East Gippsland is indicative of a a very large moisture deficit. A significant deficit.

I'll write more tomorrow but have had a long day. Very appreciative of our opportunities to converse and collaborate on this site.

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#1435030 - 24/09/2017 20:37 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Here are some Ground Moisture details from BOM

They use Drought Factor and KBDI

For those that don't know

Drought Factor is:
Drought Factor, which ranges from 0 to 10. If this is multiplied by 10 and called a percent, it gives the percentage of fine fuel that would be removed by a fire under the current conditions.
The DF is based on recent rainfall and on the Byram-Keetch Drought Index. The BKDI is the number of mm of rain needed to saturate the soil, and ranges up to a maximum of 200mm.

KBDI is:
The KBDI is expressed as a scale from 0–200, where the number represents
the amounts of rainfall (in millimetres) to return the soil to saturation.

COMBIENBAR:
DF: 9.3
KBDI: 92

BAIRNSDALE AIRPORT
DF:8.3
KBDI:59

MT MOORNAPA AWS
DF:7.2
KBDI: 36

Orbost:
DF:8.6
KBDI:69

Those figures are massive (Mildura also has an extraordinary DF of 10 and KBDI of 132), they are what you would expect to see in Mid January not the first month of Spring. This is all on the back of lack of rain, for example, Orbost has had 4 months in a row where rainfall failed to reach 50% of the average with July being only 13.5mm a record low. Mildura has had a whole sum of 6mm in the last 30 days, in terms of impact on fuel moisture - nothing.
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#1435066 - 25/09/2017 08:55 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
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Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1873
Loc: Gippsland, S/E VIC
If this respite in weather was mid fire season it would be a gift from the gods.
Good things will get done as the weather moves further east - Hopefully !! - ACCESS a little iffy re exact rainfall, in any event it will be cooler, you'd have to say cloudy and a strong chance of rain during the week.

Didn't research "wind", have to hit the road.
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mmSept-26mmOct-87mm Nov-30mm Dec-135mm =475mm

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#1435180 - 26/09/2017 16:16 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Finally came across some fire maps for you guys

TIMBARRA:


upload photos to the internet

Marlo:

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Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1435192 - 26/09/2017 18:01 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6757
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Thanks Logansi

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#1435197 - 26/09/2017 20:40 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 675
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Thanks Logansi for all the info you send our way. The DF info really makes a point - I've been talking of a "moisture deficit" but the 8.5s really do make a point.

And thanks for the maps. The Timbarra fire certainly did make a good SEly run. Interesting for a fire in that steep forested country.

Things are much quieter now - the few mm on the fire grounds wouldn't be significant in summer but (surely!)in Sept will make a difference.

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#1435278 - 27/09/2017 17:44 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
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Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1873
Loc: Gippsland, S/E VIC
Re rainfall 2017, 225mm for this calendar year, barely one third annual with 3 months left !!

You are quite right TB, "moisture deficit".

Pretty much every WATL model or similiar has a low rainfall over us this year.

So for 2017 - 225mm, the 2016 annual rainfall was 779.5mm a very good year.

Annual av. is round 620mm.
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mmSept-26mmOct-87mm Nov-30mm Dec-135mm =475mm

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#1435303 - 27/09/2017 22:46 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
This is footage from the TIMBARRA. You can see how this fire was spotting like mad. Spoke to a guy today who was up there with the CFA, they had no idea what was going on, without aircraft it was impossible for them to even work out where the front of the fire was let alone attack it.

https://www.facebook.com/ABCGippsland/vi...XmtJrSbVY7YUQ0k
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#1435315 - 28/09/2017 08:21 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1873
Loc: Gippsland, S/E VIC
Conditions and fire behaviour like that - stay safe, don't get in front of it.
No doubt that was soon worked out on the day.
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mmSept-26mmOct-87mm Nov-30mm Dec-135mm =475mm

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#1435316 - 28/09/2017 08:21 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
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Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 675
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
It's fortunate the Timbarra fire didn't result in tragedy. There were a number of camping parties in the area apparently and the fire broke out and spread unseasonably and unexpectedly - and so quickly.

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#1435352 - 28/09/2017 12:22 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
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Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 675
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Originally Posted By: logansi
This is footage from the TIMBARRA. You can see how this fire was spotting like mad. Spoke to a guy today who was up there with the CFA, they had no idea what was going on, without aircraft it was impossible for them to even work out where the front of the fire was let alone attack it.

https://www.facebook.com/ABCGippsland/vi...XmtJrSbVY7YUQ0k


Thanks Logansi.

A longer version of this video can be found at:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rtX-QhHFmIM



Edited by ThunderBob (28/09/2017 12:23)

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#1435356 - 28/09/2017 13:18 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: ThunderBob]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1873
Loc: Gippsland, S/E VIC
Originally Posted By: ThunderBob
It's fortunate the Timbarra fire didn't result in tragedy. There were a number of camping parties in the area apparently and the fire broke out and spread unseasonably and unexpectedly - and so quickly.


Good quality exit tracks to the west in that country, I suppose inexperienced campers exited down wind of the fire not knowing what they were doing.
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mmSept-26mmOct-87mm Nov-30mm Dec-135mm =475mm

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#1435387 - 28/09/2017 17:06 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 675
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
I don't know that area too well Samboz and not sure where they were - so can't judge.

Forecast late Friday and Saturday is not too good - winds from the NW eventually around to the SW up to 45kph. Chance of showers - and it IS Sept after all - but conditions might get difficult on the Timbarra fire as well as the ones further north (east from Benambra).

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#1435891 - 02/10/2017 22:42 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
First Grassland Curing map of the season out today:
Quite normal for the most areas of the state for start of early October but East Gippsland is well ahead of normal - around 2 months compared to 2015 and 2016.

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#1435896 - 02/10/2017 23:25 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Daniel Hayward Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 19/11/2013
Posts: 39
Loc: Rowville, VIC
Originally Posted By: logansi
Finally came across some fire maps for you guys

TIMBARRA:


upload photos to the internet

Marlo:



How can we acess these maps? Been looking all over the CFA Site/VicEmergency Sites for these overlays.

Cheers smile
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Daniel Hayward

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#1435912 - 03/10/2017 08:02 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: Daniel Hayward]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Originally Posted By: TC Daniel
Originally Posted By: logansi
Finally came across some fire maps for you guys

TIMBARRA:


upload photos to the internet

Marlo:



How can we acess these maps? Been looking all over the CFA Site/VicEmergency Sites for these overlays.

Cheers smile


They were posted onto the CFA Gippsland Facebook Page and later on the CFA Facebook page.

The CFA and FFMV facebook pages are good sources for extra information
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1435950 - 03/10/2017 12:04 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2374
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
WE need more rain, as September is well under average rain 15mm out of 54.2mm and hope October bring rain back..

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#1435980 - 03/10/2017 16:14 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Daniel Hayward Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 19/11/2013
Posts: 39
Loc: Rowville, VIC
Originally Posted By: logansi
Originally Posted By: TC Daniel
Originally Posted By: logansi
Finally came across some fire maps for you guys

TIMBARRA:


upload photos to the internet

Marlo:



How can we acess these maps? Been looking all over the CFA Site/VicEmergency Sites for these overlays.

Cheers smile


They were posted onto the CFA Gippsland Facebook Page and later on the CFA Facebook page.

The CFA and FFMV facebook pages are good sources for extra information


Cheers Logansi smile
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Daniel Hayward

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#1437095 - 14/10/2017 15:39 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Dawoodman Offline
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Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 1216
Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
FDP starting on Monday for Wellington Shire and East Gippsland Shire.
_________________________
The storms are always beyond the horizon, behind the trees or parting above your head

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#1437109 - 14/10/2017 17:31 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: Dawoodman]
ThunderBob Offline
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Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 675
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Originally Posted By: Dawoodman
FDP starting on Monday for Wellington Shire and East Gippsland Shire.


Yeah, Dawood. I have no memory of FDP starting anywhere near this early in Gippsland.

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#1437118 - 14/10/2017 18:29 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6757
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
....and the President of Royal Maffra, told me to keep my matches in check this evening!!

Normally at this time of the year, I'd be waiting for the chance for burn piles from blown down branches to dry enough to light!!

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#1437523 - 16/10/2017 16:28 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 675
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Fire 80ha+ just west of the Cobberas (far NE Vic). Not sure how it would have started - (no lightning?) and it's deep in bush, not abutting farmland where it could have been started by a burn-off. Will be very difficult to round up. Several bombers working on it.

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#1437546 - 16/10/2017 17:22 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Yes very odd one, going to be a challenge over the next few warm days. Hotspots from satellite were picked up in the area so I suspect it was burning overnight but not detected until morning
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#1439399 - 27/10/2017 16:11 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Sunday looking like becoming our first TFB for the season with Servere FDI currently forecast for the Mallee
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Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1439493 - 28/10/2017 17:05 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Dawoodman Offline
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Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 1216
Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
yep TFB Declared for the Mallee for 29/10/2017 between 0001 and 2359. Not the earliest but its a reminder that we are drier than last year.
Going to be interesting with the stiff breeze that is also forecast.

Tassie will be the place to watch with the St Helens fire burning and the warm weather also expected down there.
_________________________
The storms are always beyond the horizon, behind the trees or parting above your head

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#1439610 - 29/10/2017 16:54 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Dawoodman Offline
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Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 1216
Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
Got a 40-50ha fire in the plantations at Cape Bridgewater
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The storms are always beyond the horizon, behind the trees or parting above your head

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#1439611 - 29/10/2017 16:56 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Yep been speaking to family back home in Portland was lots of smoke around earlier but gone now. A number of smaller fires around the state today. With this wind i expect a lot of drying is occurring today
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1439612 - 29/10/2017 17:09 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2374
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Can see smoke in upper level.

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#1440640 - 07/11/2017 02:50 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Daniel Hayward Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 19/11/2013
Posts: 39
Loc: Rowville, VIC
For the first real time this season we will possibly see some dangerous fire conditions coming into next week. Low Humidity and High Temps with possible gusty winds to affect South Australia, Victoria and New South Wales. Gusty winds more likely just ahead of the cool change to impact mid-next week. Just checked the grassland curing maps from same time last year and we are a lot drier and that does not look to good heading into a complex set up of VERY HOT weather with a possible gusty cool change later that week. All eyes I can safley say will be on fire apps and VicEmergency website that is for sure.
_________________________
Daniel Hayward

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#1440703 - 07/11/2017 15:25 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2374
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Just checked from Friday all way next week warm to hot 30c to 35c in North "over the divide ranges.

Looks like surface will dry up fast.

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#1441108 - 13/11/2017 20:32 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Couple of fires around today including a few starts up in the high country from lightning - also are large fire involving tires at Strathmerton.

TFB for Mallee Tommorrow

Also as a type this just had a make tankers 20 in CURRAN RD TOWAN - North of Swan Hill - 300 acre wheat crop fire. Quiet surprising considering the time but still around 30 up there

Edit now make tankers 30 - 400 acres going strong


Edited by logansi (13/11/2017 20:35)
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#1441109 - 13/11/2017 20:43 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
NSW resouces now responding also. Crews on the ground just said "Fire going like hell, jumping numerous roads, multiple properties under threat."

Now make tankers 40

Update: 500 acres, multiple fronts


Edited by logansi (13/11/2017 20:52)
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#1441110 - 13/11/2017 20:58 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Control Requesting Emergency Warning for Nyah West
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#1441112 - 13/11/2017 21:15 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1094
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Wow that not good logansi!!

Hopefully they can controll it tonight
Before a bad day temp and wind wise
Up there tommoz!!

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#1441113 - 13/11/2017 21:16 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Strike Teams forming up now

This Watch & Act message is for Chinkapook, Cocamba, Miralie, Nyah West, Nyrraby, Towan, Wood Wood, Yarraby.

There is a grassfire at YARRABY ROAD, NYAH WEST that is not yet under control
This grassfire is travelling in a westerly direction
Don't wait, leaving now is the safest option - conditions may change and get worse very quickly. Emergency Services may not be able to help you if you decide to stay.
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1441117 - 13/11/2017 22:05 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Fire now contained - 900-1000 acres burnt - Crews will be blacking out all night. Fire held at Chinkapook-Nyah West Road, conditions have improved. Going to need a lot of work to keep it from flaring up tomorrow. Sounds like it was caused by a header like most fires up that way.
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#1441231 - 15/11/2017 14:11 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Got strike teams going to the fire on the SOUTH GIPPSLAND HWY WOODSIDE, right near the Omega Tower

Watch and Act in place:

This Watch & Act message is for Woodside.

There is a grassfire at SOUTH GIPPSLAND HWY, WOODSIDE that is not yet under control
This grassfire is travelling in a northerly direction towards the South Gippsland Highway.
Firefighters have been able to stop the spread of the fire. Staying close to shelter is the safest option, in case conditions change again suddenly. Continue to stay informed and monitor conditions.


Edited by logansi (15/11/2017 14:12)
_________________________
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#1441233 - 15/11/2017 14:17 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Now a make Tankers 15 on Mathers Rd, Yalca - requesting an additional aircraft
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Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1441771 - 20/11/2017 14:26 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Victorian grasslands continue to dry out, here is a GIF of the last month to today


Based on last year we are about 2 weeks ahead.

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#1441775 - 20/11/2017 14:45 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Twister1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 534
Loc: Chadstone Vic
Sure after widespread 30-50mm in NW Vic that will green a bit in the next update.

LOVE the GIF keep it coming
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Bring on the STORMS

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#1441777 - 20/11/2017 15:11 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: Twister1]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Originally Posted By: Twister1
Sure after widespread 30-50mm in NW Vic that will green a bit in the next update.

LOVE the GIF keep it coming


The rain, especially up north, will have very little effect on grasslands, you have to remember that curing is a seasonal occurrence. Once it reaches a point it wont go back until the next season. Also up north it is so dry all that rain would have been soaked right up. The biggest effect of the rain will be on slowing down the process in other areas but with another warm/hot week I doubt it will have much impact at all.

A couple of years back I remember seeing a grass fire on a hot windy day burming very well despite the fact we had 50mm 2 days before and the paddock still had standing water in it as the grass had already died of (this was middle January)

Of course the effect of the rain in forested areas especially in ground/leaf matter will be much greater.


Edited by logansi (20/11/2017 15:14)
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#1441991 - 22/11/2017 15:21 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1094
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Something going on fire wise out west north
West of Warragul? Big plume of smoke
Coming from out in the rangers in that
Direction

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#1442001 - 22/11/2017 18:03 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Large fire in Bunyips - I was flying out your way today and saw it blow up, leaving Moorabbin it was a small smoke column, by the time we were passing it it was a very large plume, was even more coming back about and hour ago.
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#1442025 - 22/11/2017 22:57 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Twister1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 534
Loc: Chadstone Vic
Yeah good point Logansi
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Bring on the STORMS

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#1442088 - 23/11/2017 14:03 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 675
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
A couple (so far) lightning starts to north of Bairnsdale and NE of Orbost. Expect more but conditions are not conducive to any rapid spread.

And a new one about 20km north of Samboz. Again, expect more.


Edited by ThunderBob (23/11/2017 14:05)

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#1442098 - 23/11/2017 15:19 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1873
Loc: Gippsland, S/E VIC
Your country round home still green TB?

Here is holding green but these consecutive warm days are
impacting !

Be nice if the big cell to our S/W wandered over and dumped
a heap grin
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mmSept-26mmOct-87mm Nov-30mm Dec-135mm =475mm

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#1442119 - 23/11/2017 16:49 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 675
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Samboz: grass is dry(ish)- green(ish) is some gullies etc, dry on many slopes. The bush is crackling dry: under the right conditions the bush would be explosive.

Got a cell out btwn Stratford and Bairnsdale atm which (he checks radar) is er, er ...evaporating. Everything is going Ne today.

Massive number of lightning shrikes east and north of Orbost. Fair number of fire starts in that area but, as I said earlier, would expect there will be more.

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#1442123 - 23/11/2017 17:21 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
ATM main fire is the HOTHAM HEIGHTS - DARGO RD fire which has 8 aircraft working on it. Numerous aircraft have been rushed into service today to cover the state. Currently 8 fires over the high country, however aircraft are up now so more may come in. An aircraft responding to the Hotham fire just found the Seaton fire on route.


Edited by logansi (23/11/2017 17:22)
_________________________
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#1442132 - 23/11/2017 18:48 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1873
Loc: Gippsland, S/E VIC
Some big fires come out of that (H/H - Dargo Rd) area loganski, pretty much inaccessible except for aircraft.

Steep country so it travels uphill with rapidity when favourable
conditions present.
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mmSept-26mmOct-87mm Nov-30mm Dec-135mm =475mm

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#1442134 - 23/11/2017 19:04 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: ThunderBob]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1873
Loc: Gippsland, S/E VIC
Originally Posted By: ThunderBob
Samboz: grass is dry(ish)- green(ish) is some gullies etc, dry on many slopes. The bush is crackling dry: under the right conditions the bush would be explosive.

Got a cell out btwn Stratford and Bairnsdale atm which (he checks radar) is er, er ...evaporating. Everything is going Ne today.

Massive number of lightning shrikes east and north of Orbost. Fair number of fire starts in that area but, as I said earlier, would expect there will be more.


Sounds like here TB, on the turn.

After numerous "rain threatening radar pics" have hit about 1mm.

Still conditions, lots of thunder, almost constant and down to 22C, didn't see therm. today but close to 33C'ish at guess.
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mmSept-26mmOct-87mm Nov-30mm Dec-135mm =475mm

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#1442138 - 23/11/2017 19:38 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1094
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Fires popping up everywhere now north of
Here around mt Tanjil north west of willow
Grove! And another start up north of rawson.

Are we looking at any more widespread rain
Over the next 3-4 days or just more hit
Miss storms?

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#1442197 - 24/11/2017 11:16 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 675
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
A number of new spots emerging this morning north of Bairnsdale around Deptford area.CFA have been monitoring but now all handed over to DEWLP.

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#1442199 - 24/11/2017 11:33 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: ThunderBob]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Originally Posted By: ThunderBob
A number of new spots emerging this morning north of Bairnsdale around Deptford area.CFA have been monitoring but now all handed over to DEWLP.


Yep Birdog 393 is up in the area now so don't be surprised if a few more pop up. Air Attack this morning is focused on the Hotham Heights and Crooked River fires with 10 aircraft between them


Edited by logansi (24/11/2017 11:36)
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1442202 - 24/11/2017 11:43 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 675
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Thanks Logansi. Conditions have been more-or-less calm and quite humid. But N/NW is starting to intermittently pick up a bit here. Bush, as I said yesterday, is very dry.

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#1442203 - 24/11/2017 11:46 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 675
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Seem to be picking up smoke on BoM radar at or near mapped site of fire listed as "14 km north of Crooked River". If that is right it may mean that that fire is getting a head.

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#1442204 - 24/11/2017 12:05 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: ThunderBob]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Originally Posted By: ThunderBob
Thanks Logansi. Conditions have been more-or-less calm and quite humid. But N/NW is starting to intermittently pick up a bit here. Bush, as I said yesterday, is very dry.
I think biggest concern is the number of fires (with lightning forecast for many days ahead) ultimately you end up stretching you resources to much and cant deal with everything - then a hot windy day comes along and you still have untracked fires. This is what happened during the great alpine fires (2003-4 and 2006-7) those events saw 90+ fires ignited and around 80% of them were contained but the 10 or so that weren't became the long running fires


Edited by logansi (24/11/2017 12:05)
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#1442207 - 24/11/2017 12:20 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 675
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
You're right, Logansi.

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#1442230 - 24/11/2017 14:44 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1094
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Fire South east of noojee jumped out a
Fair bit today out to 10ha, started at 1ha
I think.

Can see smoke from the above fire and the
Fire just north of mt Tanjil

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#1442322 - 25/11/2017 19:03 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
The number of lightning strike fires detected across the east has exploded in the last couple of hours with 18 fires classed as Not Yet Under Control and another 15 contained or controlled. Aircraft ops are currently focused on the Matlock fire and cluster of fires just north of Cann River. 3 Fire spotting planes are up trying to cover as much ground before last light.
_________________________
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#1442323 - 25/11/2017 19:16 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1094
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Logansi - how are u seeing this summer
Shaping up fire wise?

Talking to a few people around my area
And seeing all these starts up in the bush
It's pretty dry this early on!

But they are also talking La Niña event?
So it's very interesting

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#1442465 - 27/11/2017 16:29 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 675
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Dooga, I'll put in my two bob's worth. I don't think there's any way to know whether or not it'll be a significantly bad year: the only time you can say that is when you're entering summer in a long drought (viz: '39, 83, 07) but even then you need the "blowup day".

But, in terms of central and east Gippsland, as I've said before, there's a very large moisture deficit; the past week has made no difference. I was in the bush east of Cann River last week, in bush that supposed to be rain forest: the ground was dusty and the vegetation crunchy.

But things can change: see what happens this Fri/Sat: if we got heavy falls and then Dec was a "normal" Dec, the situation might change.

All I can say is, at this stage, given the current conditions and if the season continues as it has for the past few months, this part of the state has the *potential* for a very bad fire season.


Edited by ThunderBob (27/11/2017 16:30)

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#1442480 - 27/11/2017 17:55 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1094
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Thanks 'tb'👍
Yeah I'm thinking this next front later this
Week could be crucial to how things
Shape up moving forward!(in terms of how
Early it starts)

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#1442541 - 28/11/2017 08:05 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: doogasnow]
Dawoodman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 1216
Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
Originally Posted By: doogasnow
Thanks 'tb'👍
Yeah I'm thinking this next front later this
Week could be crucial to how things
Shape up moving forward!(in terms of how
Early it starts)


tbh it has already started. We have already had the Buchan fire. I am not a fan of the "this is going to be a bad bushfire year" as they have said that for the past 3 years and, apart from some rather small in comparison events such as lorne and lancfield, not much has happened in the way of major bushfires. Fortunately it has been fairly benign but people will soon get to the point of complacency and it will be in a bad fire year. I prefer to say, this year has a higher fuel load than the previous year and we have had below average rainfall and victoria is prone to bushfires so the risk is increasing in places that haven't had a fire. I agree with TB, you need the blow up day. You can have a terrible bushfire in a year with low risk and you can have no bad incidents in a prone season.

Tomorrow may be an interesting day with the heat but we have been lucky and we aren't getting the windy days lining up with the peak of the heat
_________________________
The storms are always beyond the horizon, behind the trees or parting above your head

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#1442543 - 28/11/2017 08:12 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1873
Loc: Gippsland, S/E VIC
Last three posts spot on IME.

The constant harping by the Emerg Services Comm. is a pita, the reality is that pretty much every Summer in Vic has the potential to be a "bad Fire Season".

Some rain, anything over an inch, this coming event would be handy.
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mmSept-26mmOct-87mm Nov-30mm Dec-135mm =475mm

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#1442902 - 30/11/2017 14:41 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
The rain may arrive soon but today is turning into a very active fire day, numerous major jobs, including Stawell and fires near Cann River. 25 of 28 aircraft online are currently active, ironically including 2 choppers doing fire spotting which were brought online for flood watch and surveillance. Deep Lead/Stawell fire is currently getting 4 strike teams - lots of new starts in the west thanks to lightning.

Only in Victoria would you need to evacuate due to a fire one day and flooding the next.


Edited by logansi (30/11/2017 14:43)
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#1442940 - 30/11/2017 17:26 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
This Watch & Act message is being issued for Tamboon, Wingan River, Cann River, and Noorinbee.

There is a bushfire at 16KM ESE CANN RIVER that is not yet under control.
The bushfire is travelling in a south westerly direction towards Thurra Road.
Don't wait, leaving now is the safest option - conditions may change and get worse very quickly. Emergency Services may not be able to help you if you decide to stay.
What you should do:
When you leave remember to take your pets, mobile phone and medications.
Travel to the home of family or friends that are away from the warning area.
Keep the roads clear so emergency services can respond.
If you are away from home do not return.
Monitor conditions for changes in the situation.
Impacts in your area:
The following roads are closed: East Wingan Road, West Wingan Road, Stony Peak Road, Thurra Road with possibility of Point Hicks Road being closed too.


- Expect the Princess HWY to be closed soon too
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1443077 - 01/12/2017 11:46 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 675
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Ironic in the current circumstances ... but the Cann River fire is really doing a runner!
_____________________________________

This Watch & Act message is being issued for Point Hicks, Furnell, Peachtree Creek Campsite, Choof Choof, and Tamboon

There is a bushfire at 16KM SE CANN RIVER that is not yet under control
This fire is over 2500 ha's in size
The bushfire is travelling rapidly in a south westerly direction towards Point Hicks Road
______________________________________

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#1443078 - 01/12/2017 11:51 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: ThunderBob]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Originally Posted By: ThunderBob
Ironic in the current circumstances ... but the Cann River fire is really doing a runner!
_____________________________________

This Watch & Act message is being issued for Point Hicks, Furnell, Peachtree Creek Campsite, Choof Choof, and Tamboon

There is a bushfire at 16KM SE CANN RIVER that is not yet under control
This fire is over 2500 ha's in size
The bushfire is travelling rapidly in a south westerly direction towards Point Hicks Road
______________________________________


Yep quote from the ground is its going like hell and spotting up to 1.8km ahead of the front. Sounds like its close to 4000ha now

Most aircraft are now grounded due to the weather to the west. Smoke ironically is clearly showing up on radar and satellite





Edited by logansi (01/12/2017 11:54)
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#1443080 - 01/12/2017 12:03 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 675
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Thanks Logansi. At this rate, it'll probably get to the coast this arvo. Current conditions at Orbost: 32C 35RH N 24/43kph

I spent a few beautiful days camped at Thurra River just two weeks ago. Will probably burn out this arvo!

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#1443082 - 01/12/2017 12:10 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: ThunderBob]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Originally Posted By: ThunderBob
Thanks Logansi. At this rate, it'll probably get to the coast this arvo. Current conditions at Orbost: 32C 35RH N 24/43kph

I spent a few beautiful days camped at Thurra River just two weeks ago. Will probably burn out this arvo!


Crews are trying to protect some of the camp site areas, but overall sounds like they will just let it burn until the rain comes - no property in the way.
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#1443084 - 01/12/2017 12:20 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 675
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
"no property in the way." No, that's right.

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#1443085 - 01/12/2017 12:27 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 675
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Interesting ... WZ Radar is showing CGs and CC in smoke plume from the Cann River fire!

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#1443086 - 01/12/2017 12:29 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: ThunderBob]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Originally Posted By: ThunderBob
Interesting ... WZ Radar is showing CGs and CC in smoke plume from the Cann River fire!


Sure is! Currently the most lightning-active storm in Victoria.... Is a smoke plume
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#1443136 - 01/12/2017 16:44 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
talking around 8000ha now although rain has arrived so doubt it will grow much if any more
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#1443142 - 01/12/2017 16:57 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Also NOORINBEE NORTH fire at 510ha
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#1443145 - 01/12/2017 17:13 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 675
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Thanks Logansi. Was going to post that Cann River had exceeded 5K but obviously much bigger than that now. Yes, the rain will definitely stop or slow their spread now.

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#1444661 - 12/12/2017 17:01 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
TFB tomorrow in Wimmera and Mallee
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#1444662 - 12/12/2017 17:23 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1094
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yeah, I just checked the local bom
Forecast for the Gippsland area and there
Is a very warm dry stretch over the next
7 days with a 36c tommoz and finishes
With 39c next Monday!!

So it's a big drying out period over the next
Week, things will be as dry as before we
Had the big rain event, if not dryer?
Makes next Tuesday's front very important
For another good dose of rain!

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#1444739 - 13/12/2017 15:23 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
2 Major fires going in the states west

his Emergency Warning is being issued for Balmoral.

There is a bushfire at the Recreation Reserve on HARROW RD, BALMORAL that is not yet under control.
The bushfire is travelling in a southerly direction and may impact Balmoral.
You are in danger, act now to protect yourself. It is too late to leave. The safest option is to take shelter indoors immediately.
What you should do:

A Neighbourhood Safer Place is located at Balmoral Memorial Hall and Bowls Club Grounds corner of Stirling Street (Natimuk Hamilton Road) an Glendinning Street, Balmoral.


and

his Watch & Act message is being issued for Mooralla, Mona Park.

There is a bushfire in Blue Gum Plantation near Craigs Road and CARTERS RD, MOORALLA that is not yet under control.
The bushfire is travelling in a south-easterly direction towards Henty Highway.
This fire will come out of the Blue Gum Plantation and may become a fast running grass fire.


Large air tankers (first day of operation) and 30 other aircraft are currently in use.
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#1444769 - 13/12/2017 20:42 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6757
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Ta Logansi

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#1444773 - 13/12/2017 21:27 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
The main fire is still the Mooralla fire, which is now up to 800ha which is still at Watch and Act level, about 14 aircraft worked right up until last light including the 2 large air tankers. Had a quick look at least years thread and for the second year in a row the LAT's were used on their first day of contract -although it may have been brought forward 1 day this year as normal they start on the 14th.

I am starting to grow more a more worried about this season, the La Nina may bring a little more or at least average rainfall but it also increases the risk of extended hot spells and most importantly spike days with very strong NW winds followed by the wind change. Also much of the state had a wettish start to winter but dry end and dry spring meaning both longer than normal grass and a very dry bush - its normally one of the other.


Edited by logansi (13/12/2017 21:28)
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#1444775 - 13/12/2017 21:43 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 675
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Originally Posted By: logansi
Also much of the state had a wettish start to winter but dry end and dry spring meaning both longer than normal grass and a very dry bush - its normally one of the other.


Agree Logansi. I concur with Dooga re the recent rain seeming to make surprisingly small difference - bush around here is "dry as" already. But we don't have the longer than normal grass - still short though with a touch now of green but I think will very quickly brown off with little added growth.

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#1444777 - 13/12/2017 21:58 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Photo of the Mooralla Fire



By Wayne Rigg (Air Attack Supervisor Birdog 376)/CFA
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#1444836 - 14/12/2017 14:35 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 675
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Thanks Logansi. Folks might like to note there are maps now for the Mooralla fire and for the two fires near Cann River on emergency.vic.gov.au site.

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#1444901 - 14/12/2017 23:15 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 675
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Next Tuesday (19/12) has the potential of a very bad day: temperature and wind. It might be that the timing is a positive factor with peak wind and the front crossing most of Victoria before peak potential heat.

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#1445257 - 19/12/2017 18:32 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Numerous lightning strike fires nothing big atm. Storms causing serious issues for aircraft reponding to fires with multiple aircraft being forced to return and divert
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#1447270 - 04/01/2018 16:41 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Saturday has already been declared a statewide total fire ban, while official warnings have Mallee and Wimmera at Extreme, South West, Central, Northern Country and North Central on Severe and the other at Very high, Raw data is suggesting that many of those Severe areas could jump to extreme and all but the far east to Severe. There are even some specs of Code Red showing up in the Mallee area.

Another major detail i have noticed is that some areas on the North West could see FDI levels above Severe for longer than 10 hours - something i have personally never seen.

All things considered Saturday is looking like our worst day in the last 2 years, just a little more wind and it could be our worst in 5 or so.



Edited by logansi (04/01/2018 16:50)
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#1447273 - 04/01/2018 16:51 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Also 40 trucks + Aircraft working on Bamganie fire
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#1447277 - 04/01/2018 17:22 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1094
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yep will be a very hot windy day Saturday
I reckon! The day def has that look about
It and could be nasty!!

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#1447390 - 05/01/2018 14:43 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Extreme now for Mallee, Wimmera, South West and Central.
Severe for North Central and Northern Country
Very High for the rest
Statewide TFB
Some Areas will be borderline Code Red/Catastrophic with SE areas of South Australia reaching this limits.
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#1447405 - 05/01/2018 16:02 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Tommorrow will officially see some of the highest FFDI's in a number of years in Victoria

The Grey/Black in this is FFDI 100+ - Code Red, however Wimmera and Mallee use the Grass Fire Danger Index shown second








Edited by logansi (05/01/2018 16:02)
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#1447415 - 05/01/2018 16:35 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1094
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Thanks for those chars logansi👍
Yeah looking pretty bad for the west
Of the state especially

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#1447529 - 06/01/2018 09:11 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Fire Danger is flying up across the state, it has already hit Severe across the Wimmera and Mallee. Melbourne Airport has hit Severe Grass Fire Danger Index. While Mt Gellibrand has already hit Extreme for Grass Fire Danger index thanks to gusts up to 70kph.

Stay Safe all
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#1447532 - 06/01/2018 09:47 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1094
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yep just checked the BoM obs and
It's looking very hot and windy so early!!

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#1447535 - 06/01/2018 09:52 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: doogasnow]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Originally Posted By: doogasnow
Yep just checked the BoM obs and
It's looking very hot and windy so early!!


Yep some based on CFA paging seems like BOM has informed them that conditions are going to be worse than forecast, apparently Wimmera and South West are now expected to reach Code Red status - although public data wont be altered
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#1447538 - 06/01/2018 10:02 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1094
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yeah dosent suprise me at all logansi!
Wind starting to gust up here now

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#1447542 - 06/01/2018 10:08 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 675
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Thanks Logansi for all of the info. To get an indication of how things are shaping (and yes, seems might well be worse than forecast) have a look at what's happening in Mount Lofty Ranges and abouts. RH is dropping drastically as well as temps and wind rising.

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#1447558 - 06/01/2018 12:05 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Most of the western half of the state has now hit Severe FDI's with many areas getting close to extreme.

No fires to 12pm
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#1447583 - 06/01/2018 14:53 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Dawoodman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 1216
Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
Sherwood in SA with an emergency warning frown
_________________________
The storms are always beyond the horizon, behind the trees or parting above your head

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#1447586 - 06/01/2018 15:09 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Blue Wren Rise, Carrum Downs, make tankers 20, pumpers 5. emergency warning requested for Darnley Rd, houses under ember attack, homes under immediate threat

Edit Make Pumpers 8

Rapid Response Strike Teams responding


Edited by logansi (06/01/2018 15:12)
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#1447587 - 06/01/2018 15:15 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Carrum Downs fire now make Pumpers 10, strike teams 4
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#1447588 - 06/01/2018 15:15 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1094
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Looks like the glenormiston fire
Out south west vic is causing some trouble
Logansi?? 10 trucks now on it

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#1447589 - 06/01/2018 15:16 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: doogasnow]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Originally Posted By: doogasnow
Looks like the glenormiston fire
Out south west vic is causing some trouble
Logansi?? 10 trucks now on it


Said to be spreading slowly on the scanner - things very busy right now

Edit: May have just had a make tankers 20 so may have heard wrong


Edited by logansi (06/01/2018 15:18)
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#1447591 - 06/01/2018 15:18 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1094
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Fire wise the day is starting now

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#1447592 - 06/01/2018 15:21 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Dawoodman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 1216
Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
Cranbourne Botanic Gardens going up too. Buy the sounds of the resources being used a fire in these two location will be a test
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The storms are always beyond the horizon, behind the trees or parting above your head

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#1447593 - 06/01/2018 15:23 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: Dawoodman]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Originally Posted By: Dawoodman
Cranbourne Botanic Gardens going up too. Buy the sounds of the resources being used a fire in these two location will be a test


make tankers 10

this is the Carrum Downs fire

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#1447594 - 06/01/2018 15:23 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
CARTERS RD MOORALLA (Fire from a few weeks ago) make tankers 15
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#1447595 - 06/01/2018 15:25 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1094
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
There are fires popping up everywhere
All around that Carrim Fire?? Is the fire
Creating new spot fires everywhere ?

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#1447596 - 06/01/2018 15:26 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: doogasnow]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Originally Posted By: doogasnow
There are fires popping up everywhere
All around that Carrim Fire?? Is the fire
Creating new spot fires everywhere ?


Most of them are false alarms - people calling in smoke
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#1447597 - 06/01/2018 15:30 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1094
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
I can't keep up with it all now!
Gone from nothing to fires popping up
All round the place!

22 trucks now on the glenorminston
Fire

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#1447598 - 06/01/2018 15:31 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
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#1447599 - 06/01/2018 15:32 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
^^ house now allight
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#1447601 - 06/01/2018 15:35 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1094
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
😨😨

Emergency warning for glenmiston
Fire

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#1447602 - 06/01/2018 15:37 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Absolute hell in Carrum Downs, Incident Controler just said "All units responding grab a house and protect it if you can, if not fall back now"

Also AV required urgently for injured family
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#1447603 - 06/01/2018 15:40 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1094
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
[censored]!!

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#1447604 - 06/01/2018 15:41 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1094
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
6 trucks to silvan near mon bulk
Dandenong rangers

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#1447605 - 06/01/2018 15:42 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1873
Loc: Gippsland, S/E VIC
Looked like an evaporative air con as initial point of fire on the roof of the house.

Fire is certainly spotting well.
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mmSept-26mmOct-87mm Nov-30mm Dec-135mm =475mm

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#1447608 - 06/01/2018 15:51 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Fire has now crossed McClelland Drvie
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#1447609 - 06/01/2018 15:58 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
SANDHILLS LANE NUGGETTY make tankers 15
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#1447611 - 06/01/2018 16:06 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1094
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yep few popped up around that fire
Logansi

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#1447621 - 06/01/2018 16:56 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2374
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
So how did fires started bloody humans firebug right..Carrum Downs

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#1447624 - 06/01/2018 17:21 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1094
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
12 trucks on a fire near Hastings!

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#1447630 - 06/01/2018 17:30 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
^^ Takers 15 on that one now
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#1447638 - 06/01/2018 18:28 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 675
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
This Watch & Act message is for Eynesbury, Mount Cottrell.

There is a grassfire at COBBLEDICKS FORD RD, MOUNT COTTRELL that is not yet under control
This grassfire is travelling in a northerly direction towards Eynesbury township.

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#1447649 - 06/01/2018 19:08 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2374
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Can see smoke from West with wind change
http://satview.bom.gov.au/

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#1447671 - 06/01/2018 21:12 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
CFA saying significant damage to 1 house and 3 sheds in the Carrum Downs Fire, also an abandoned farmhouse was destroyed at the Glenormiston South fire.

Despite this I'd say we were lucky today, the fire conditions were the worst we have seen in at least 2 years. There were very few fires reported which was lucky.

Some extremely high FDI's out there

Top Forrest Fire Danger Index's
Mt Gellibrand 131
Hopetoun 107
Avalon 96

Top Grass Fire Danger Index's
Mt Gellibrand 241 - Told This may be the highest individual GFDI since Black Saturday
Nhill - 128
Avalon - 118

Today will have caused significant drying to those areas not yet dried out.

Still some small areas of Severe FDI tomorrow in the far North
East but not enough to trigger whole district. Also some change of storms in the east tomorrow.


Edited by logansi (06/01/2018 21:13)
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#1447675 - 06/01/2018 21:26 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1094
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Impressive figures logansi!!
Some areas of the state def escaped
Some serious fire potential.

Yep, big dry out day and no real rain
(Substantial) on the horizon? Maybe a
Little on Monday/Tuesday and then possibly
Turning quiet warm again by the end of next
Week(according to tonight's gfs run)

Could be some half decent rain end of next
Week but who knows?

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#1447678 - 06/01/2018 21:31 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1094
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
The cool changes aren't really that cool
Neither. We stay in the higher 20's tommoz
And Monday, then Tuesday back to low
20's then it heats up again

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#1447756 - 07/01/2018 12:14 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2374
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
A 15-year-old girl has been charged with deliberately sparking an out-of-control fire in Melbourne’s southeast yesterday, which took 300 firefighters to fight. Now we know firebug.

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#1447776 - 07/01/2018 13:55 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
COACH RD WINTON - Make Tankers 15 - Crossing WINTON-LURG RD
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1447795 - 07/01/2018 14:16 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
^^ Make Tankers 30 now - that'll include strike teams

Watch and Act current:

This Watch & Act message is for Winton.

There is a grassfire at COACH RD, WINTON that is not yet under control
This grassfire is travelling in a towards Winton - Lurg Road.
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1447802 - 07/01/2018 14:36 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
EMERGENCY WARNING - FIRE
Incident Location: COACH RD, WINTON
Incident Name: COACHRD
Issue Date: Sunday 07 January 2018, 02:34 pm
Next Update: Sunday 07 January 2018, 06:30 pm

This Emergency Warning is being issued for Lurg, Winton.

- There is a grassfire at COACH RD, WINTON that is out of control.
- The grassfire is along the Winton - Lurg Road between Greta Road and Grant Road.

You are in danger, act now to protect yourself. It is too late to leave. The safest option is to take shelter indoors immediately.

More details at
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1447807 - 07/01/2018 14:55 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 675
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
This Emergency Warning is being issued for Glenrowan West, Lurg, Winton.

There is a grassfire at COACH RD, WINTON that is out of control.
The grassfire is along the Winton - Lurg Road between Greta Road and Grant Road.
Firefighters have been unable to stop the fire and it has now crossed Wattle Creek road and is moving towards Properties in the Glenrown west Area.

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#1447814 - 07/01/2018 15:22 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 675
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
This Watch & Act message is for Glenrowan West, Lurg, Winton.

There is a 100 hectare grassfire at COACH RD, WINTON that is Contained but not yet under control
This grassfire is travelled in a easterly direction towards propeties in the Wattle Creek.
This is an updated warning that replaces the Emergency warning issued at 4.50pm.
Firefighters have been able to stop the spread of the fire. Staying close to shelter is the safest option, in case conditions change again suddenly. Continue to stay informed and monitor conditions.

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#1448151 - 09/01/2018 18:23 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1094
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
What's people's thoughts on potential
Fire conditions this coming Friday?

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#1448244 - 10/01/2018 09:05 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6757
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
I'd expect a bit more humidity along with the heat over Vic on Friday, should have some sort of moderating effect on fire index?

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#1448284 - 10/01/2018 13:44 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 675
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Dooga, I agree with Petros. There'll be some heat and some wind but as far as I'm seeing not sustained fresh/strong N/NWlies. And the humidity will be elevated.

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#1448299 - 10/01/2018 16:54 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Dawoodman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 1216
Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
Only going severe in the Mallee and the Wimmera so probably TFBs there but the heat its coming with a bit of moisture, more like some of the hot humid setups we had a few weeks ago? at the start of summer
_________________________
The storms are always beyond the horizon, behind the trees or parting above your head

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#1448310 - 10/01/2018 21:00 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
rstewart84 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/01/2007
Posts: 2080
Loc: Kalangadoo,South Australia
Once again i am border hopping into Victoria for a quick squiz seeing as the SA forum is dead as a door nail so g'day to everyone first off last weekend was a real stinker here in SE South Australia with temps reaching as high as 44 degrees up at Keith to about 41 in Mount Gambier

No extremely hot day is not without its sobering reminders of the ever present hazard that we continously face summer after summer with a quite nasty g&s fire popping up just near Keith at Sherwood causing a fair bit of damage including 4 houses, 2000 livestock not to mention it moved at a frightening speed much likened to the Pinery Bushfires several years ago

With a fire of that magnitude happening so early in 2018 adding another sizeable grassie just near Lucindale about 2 days later only sets the stage for more to come in late January and early February

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#1448370 - 11/01/2018 14:21 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 675
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Welcome to drop by rstewart84!

Fire at Advice level se of Dargo. One north of Shelford is now under control.

The Dargo (Mt Djoandah) fire is in fairly rugged country: some rock, dryish but often heavy bush. They have a number of bombers on it and 7 vehicles listed.

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#1448371 - 11/01/2018 15:04 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
New one further north at Talbotville-Moroka Junction Tr also getting air support
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1448373 - 11/01/2018 15:12 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 675
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Yeah, Logansi. I think we must be seeing starts from the lightning of a few days ago. This area has been humid with heavy cloud cover the past couple of days but today is sunny with some lowering of humidity.

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#1448375 - 11/01/2018 15:14 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: ThunderBob]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Originally Posted By: ThunderBob
Yeah, Logansi. I think we must be seeing starts from the lightning of a few days ago. This area has been humid with heavy cloud cover the past couple of days but today is sunny with some lowering of humidity.


Yep, Club Terrace - Pikes Hill, Pikes Hill now has aircraft too.

Yeah spotting planes couldn't even get up yesterday due to the cloud - don't be surprised if we see some new ones pop up
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1449092 - 17/01/2018 14:15 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Tommorrow 18/01/2018 has been declared a day of Total Fire Ban for Mallee, Wimmera and South West

and

Friday 19/01/2018 has been declared a day of Total Fire Ban for Mallee, Wimmera, South West, North Central and Central
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1449209 - 18/01/2018 14:42 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Fire at MUMBANNAR in the states SW at Emergency Level


This Emergency Warning is being issued for Mumbannar, Wanwin.

There is a bushfire at 17KM WEST OF DARTMOOR that is out of control.
The bushfire is travelling in a south-easterly direction towards Mumbannar and Wanwin.
This message is for residents in the Wanwin and Mumbannar areas.


Very major 2 days, with BOM/CFA issuing a warning for dry lightning on Friday Afternoon and Saturday. Stay Safe guys!
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1449305 - 19/01/2018 10:49 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Rapidly developing fire at LANGI KAL KAL, Make tankers 20 and additional air support needed
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1449311 - 19/01/2018 11:28 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
^^ Now 3 Helitacks, 2 small bombers, 2 Large Air tankers and 4 opps Aircraft working or on route to the Langi Kal Kal fire, fire is inaccessible on a large hill, also around wind farms.

Hadfield Rd, Upper Plenty was a shed fire which has no spread to grass and is make tankers 10 and aircraft requested.

Currently more than 25 aircraft in the air working on different fires.


Edited by logansi (19/01/2018 11:29)
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1449352 - 19/01/2018 16:36 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Kellalac fire, south of Warracknabeal at Watch and Act level, latest on the scanner puts fire are up to 5km long with known width and going very hard. Also lightning just detected in SA just west of Boarder up around Pinnaroo

Tommorrow is again a TFB for Mallee - 3rd day running


Edited by logansi (19/01/2018 16:38)
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1449354 - 19/01/2018 17:11 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 675
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
That lightning if unfortunate. It's now moved into Vic NW of Nhill. One hopes it does not continue too long or too far.

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#1449453 - 20/01/2018 15:40 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
CRESWICK-NEWSTEAD RD SMEATON escalating rapidly, make tankers 20, more strike teams and more air support. Requested Large Air Tankers but they are on deployment to NSW.
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1449631 - 22/01/2018 08:23 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Quite a bit of dry lighting across the North West and East overnight, already a number of fires showing up in the east especially near Mt Beauty. Considering aircraft are only just getting up and fire towers are yet to be manned i expect more to pop up during the day.

Edit: MT BEAUTY - SIMMONS GAP fire now has 3 helitacks, 2 bombers and 2 Opps Aircraft deployed.



Edited by logansi (22/01/2018 08:31)
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1449649 - 22/01/2018 10:22 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Massive State wide Aircraft deployment now:

BIG DESERT RED BLUFF TRACK x9
MT BEAUTY - SIMMONS GAP x7
TALBOTVILLE MT VALENTIA x4
DANDONGADALE - BUGGERY TRACK x1
KANCOONA STH - MORGAN CREEK x1
NSW deployment x3


Edited by logansi (22/01/2018 10:22)
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1449673 - 22/01/2018 13:39 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Current Aircraft Dispatch - large air tankers also now up

_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1449800 - Yesterday at 14:33 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Reports fire in YOU YANGS is developing a large smoke column, make tankers 10 and at least 2 aircraft
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1449807 - Yesterday at 15:15 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
2 watch and acts current:

This Watch & Act message is being issued for Kyneton.

There is a grassfire at CALDER FWY, KYNETON between Edgecomb Road and Ebden Street that is not yet under control
This grassfire is travelling in a northerly direction .
If you live directly next to grassland quickly move two or more streets away from the fire. Grass fires are unlikely to spread past the first row of houses.




This Watch & Act message is for Bookaar, Gnotuk, Skibo.

There is a grassfire at DARLINGTON RD, BOOKAAR that is not yet under control
This grassfire is travelling in a north-westerly direction towards Lake Bookaar.
Don't wait, leaving now is the safest option - conditions may change and get worse very quickly. Emergency Services may not be able to help you if you decide to stay.
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1449809 - Yesterday at 15:25 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1094
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Getting a little busy again logansi and its
Not even a bad weather day

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