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#988015 - 07/05/2011 21:29 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seina]
S .O. Offline
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Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 1540
Loc: Southern Victoria
Yeah , Today In Vicco , it just looked Ominous . Alot cooler than SA too . Note Hobarts max Tomorrow , and probably even cooler Wed/Thurs .

As of yet the Action off NW hasn't really fed in ? Maybe we'll be in for a Surprise ....
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#988021 - 07/05/2011 22:35 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seina]
Seina Offline
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Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7769
Loc: Adelaide Hills
To clarify:
Originally Posted By: -Cosmic- (naz)
There seem to be warning signs [of rainfall] from this system...for tomorrow.

We've had rain, fall...today smile!

...just haven't checked yet.


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (07/05/2011 22:37)

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#988023 - 07/05/2011 22:45 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: S .O.]
Seina Offline
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Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7769
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: Southern Oracle
Maybe we'll be in for a Surprise ....

That would be nice.

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#988138 - 08/05/2011 19:19 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seina]
Seina Offline
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Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7769
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: -Cosmic- (naz)
To clarify:
Originally Posted By: -Cosmic- (naz)
There seem to be warning signs [of rainfall] from this system...for tomorrow.

We've had rain, fall...today smile!

...just haven't checked yet.

0.1 mm yesterday, 0.3 mm today..so far smile!

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#988161 - 08/05/2011 21:29 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seina]
S .O. Offline
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Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 1540
Loc: Southern Victoria
Yes , unfortunately from what I'm seeing of it , only east of a line from Warnambool (VIC) to Parkes (NSW) , will see any interaction of Southern Cold air with Moisture interactions .
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#988175 - 08/05/2011 22:20 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: S .O.]
Seina Offline
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Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7769
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: Southern Oracle
Yes , unfortunately from what I'm seeing of it , only east of a line from Warnambool (VIC) to Parkes (NSW) , will see any interaction of Southern Cold air with Moisture interactions .

Agreed, this isn't the system I thought it was (35-40 mm).

Edit:

It doesn't help explain the middle-level displays of altocumulus (very apparent) spanning the northwest quadrant about midday on the 6th and earlier in the, day directly overhead.


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (08/05/2011 22:22)

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#988182 - 08/05/2011 23:02 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seina]
S .O. Offline
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Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 1540
Loc: Southern Victoria
I would have thought it hinted at being the system to actually draw up this Very Cold Air, that's ( uniquely ) slid into a S/N trajectory as I Type , over Vic . As for you getting Rain ( Real Falls ) , that will come Midweek . Very hard to predict when , but the complexity of the Fronts ' ( yes Plural ) and the ability for a Cut off Low to spin up in Bass straight . It's matter of Only a few hundred KM's that will see it Seed either West of Tassie , on the Border of SO/ Bass or east actually on the Tasman/Bass Junction .

Obviously if we see it start to favour the west side , then the Adelaide Hills and as far Nth as Arkaroola are a good chance of decent falls (10+mm's).One model I've seen supports this .
As i mentioned the timing is almost Impossible , but the West/East aspect will be reasonably easier with a watch of whether the Trough in
QLD/N-NSW spins up and hogs alot of the High level Moisture or it takes awhile to organise and we see it drift a little further sth and enabling a further South Tasman Interaction when further fronts arrive as the week progresses .
A retrograde/ sw movement will help , one to monitor .
And if it nears atleast Sth of Ulladulla and closer to Eden we may see the interaction bridge From one side of Bass Straight to the other . Hence a much further west precipitous area .


Edited by Southern Oracle (08/05/2011 23:05)
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#988252 - 09/05/2011 13:03 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: S .O.]
Seina Offline
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Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7769
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Judging by the GFS 18Z08may2011 to 06Z16may2011 run, streamflow is predicted to increase 7-8 fold by the 11th...with maybe 30 mm on that day. Looks like it'll be pretty cold. Was 13 C late this morning if that wasn't cold enough...with another trickle (0.3 mm).


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (09/05/2011 13:05)

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#988380 - 09/05/2011 23:16 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seina]
Seina Offline
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Registered: 27/08/2003
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Loc: Adelaide Hills
0 Degrees Celsius @ 10:40 pm CST.

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#988388 - 10/05/2011 00:29 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seina]
S .O. Offline
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Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 1540
Loc: Southern Victoria
Out of interest , when was the last time you got snow in mid/late Autumn in the Flinders ranges / Adelaide Hills / Fleurieu . ?
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#988535 - 10/05/2011 17:40 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: S .O.]
Seina Offline
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Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7769
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: Southern Oracle
Out of interest , when was the last time you got snow in mid/late Autumn in the Flinders ranges / Adelaide Hills / Fleurieu . ?

You're talking 1999-2000. In 1996 there was definitely snow.

To be honest minuses are not that uncommon up here...last night's low was the 8th at or below 2 C since Saturday the 23rd, last month. Today top was 20 C.

Edit:

The day I witness another flood like that of 1995 and 1996,...that will be interest given how much the landscape has changed since then!


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (10/05/2011 17:47)

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#988540 - 10/05/2011 17:51 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seina]
Seina Offline
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Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7769
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Most of the photographs/videos presented here don't give a full appreciation of the scale of the floods of the mid-to-late 1990s.

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#988553 - 10/05/2011 18:29 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seina]
Seina Offline
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Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7769
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Light-to-moderate rain here smile. Drizzle-to-light since about 5 (this arvo).


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (10/05/2011 18:32)

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#988558 - 10/05/2011 18:37 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seina]
S .O. Offline
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Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 1540
Loc: Southern Victoria
Photo's videos above ????

And current Temps with precip ?
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#988616 - 10/05/2011 22:24 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: S .O.]
Seina Offline
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Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7769
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: -Cosmic- (naz)
Most of the photographs/videos presented here [in this thread] don't give a full appreciation of the scale of the floods of the mid-to-late 1990s.


Originally Posted By: Southern Oracle
And current Temps with precip?

20 C/0 C (today) , 2.1 mm (today), 88% humidity (6:30 pm).
70% humidity (~7:30 pm), 82% (now). 9 C (now).


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (10/05/2011 22:31)

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#988713 - 11/05/2011 11:07 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seina]
Seina Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7769
Loc: Adelaide Hills
If we're after significant runoff...I don't think intermittent mostly light showers are going to be sufficient.

I still have that "it'll be months before we see signficant runoff again" ringing in my ears. That was back in March.

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#989110 - 12/05/2011 13:14 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seina]
Seina Offline
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Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7769
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Longer-term we're actually exceeding our 1990-2005 annual average total (to date) by about 70 mm, March this year being an excessively wet month.

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#989322 - 13/05/2011 13:51 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seina]
Seina Offline
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Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7769
Loc: Adelaide Hills
I can use rainfall variables and proxies to model monthly streamflow (mm/day) relatively well (concurrently), and daily flows to a lesser extent...

I am also aware of lags between rainfall in the region and climate phenomena, however the correlations for the lags are currently not significant enough to generate longer-term forecasts.

More research to be done smile .

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#989640 - 15/05/2011 14:33 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seina]
Seina Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7769
Loc: Adelaide Hills
The prssure increased 9 hPa from Friday to yesterday, streamflow noticeably increased last night at about 6pm, the pressure up to ~1028 (another 6 hPa higher), and is still hovering around 1027 hPa. I think this is quite high for the area.

Just looking at the satellite map animation (BoM), I might be inclined to think the next few months (Winter) is going to particularly wet, with a major rain event later on this month (~20th-22nd)...will see smile .

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#990239 - 19/05/2011 13:08 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seina]
Seina Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7769
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: -Cosmic- (naz)
Just looking at the satellite map animation (BoM), I might be inclined to think the next few months (Winter) is going to particularly wet, with a major rain event later on this month (~20th-22nd)...will see smile .

I think major is quite an adequate description at this point.

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