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#1354762 - 24/12/2015 12:16 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seina]
Seina Offline
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Registered: 27/08/2003
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Loc: Adelaide Hills
Falls exceeding 100 mm in the Daintree in the 24 hours to 9 am local time this morning smile .

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#1355375 - 27/12/2015 14:01 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seina]
adon Offline
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Registered: 19/08/2004
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So I have been keeping an eye on the rain echoes over the Warrego river. Just wondering what are the chances of some flows coming from there? Hopefully this will will be a primer for a bigger event coming down from the Gulf.

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#1355518 - 27/12/2015 21:37 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seina]
Seina Offline
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Loc: Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: adon
So I have been keeping an eye on the rain echoes over the Warrego river. Just wondering what are the chances of some flows coming from there? Hopefully this will will be a primer for a bigger event coming down from the Gulf.

If the low affects areas around Boulia enough, for long, there could [and I emphasise could] be flows down the QLD streams of the Warrego Basin, into NSW [maybe even down into SA’s far northeast] … but I would think the rains would have to be sustained, and at times heavy, around the New Year smile . I just waited for another model run of GFS to pass, and low-and-behold, the area of highest precipitation for the low around the 31st changed! We basically need to save every run from here till the 31st to get a “track map” or average for the highest probability of where and when rain in that NT/QLD/SA border region will fall [if it does].

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#1355528 - 27/12/2015 22:08 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seina]
adon Offline
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It looks like some sort of force field(feeling the Star Wars love haha) breve ting much coming south. Hope that goes away.

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#1355533 - 27/12/2015 22:18 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seina]
Seina Offline
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Registered: 27/08/2003
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Loc: Adelaide Hills
If the Monsoon Trough activity makes it to Cairns and dumps up to the 150-200 mm it could in the next few days, it could tap more into Coral Sea moisture and winds, leading it to veer south.

Also, yes, I agree, there appear to be stronger southerly continental winds pushing against the higher 500-1000 mb thickness across the interior. The ridge to the south west really needs to weaken.


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (27/12/2015 22:22)

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#1355954 - 29/12/2015 17:39 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seina]
Seina Offline
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Registered: 27/08/2003
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Loc: Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: -Cosmic- (naz)
If the Monsoon Trough activity makes it to Cairns and dumps up to the 150-200 mm it could in the next few days, it could tap more into Coral Sea moisture and winds, leading it to veer south.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning out of Cairns area for heavy rainfall (4:14 pm local time) over several hours (as well as flood warnings for some streams). Tropical low showing signs of movement smile .

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#1355980 - 29/12/2015 19:22 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seina]
Seina Offline
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Loc: Adelaide Hills
On the off chance GFS is accurate 4 days out, could see 50-100 mm rainfall in the Warrego Basin by the 2nd.

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#1356097 - 30/12/2015 12:47 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: adon]
Seina Offline
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Loc: Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: adon
It looks like some sort of force field(feeling the Star Wars love haha) breve ting much coming south. Hope that goes away.

The front near Perth is asking a lot of questions smile .

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#1356108 - 30/12/2015 13:58 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seina]
Seina Offline
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Registered: 27/08/2003
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Loc: Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: -Cosmic- (naz)
Originally Posted By: adon
It looks like some sort of force field(feeling the Star Wars love haha) breve ting much coming south. Hope that goes away.

The front near Perth is asking a lot of questions smile .

Regardless of the questions it raises about the trajectory of any moisture, I hope the MDB gets a drenching, and that that drenching feeds into areas which most need it. A recent report I heard about mentions the fauna and flora is not doing too well in the Basin. How accurate it is is another matter, but if it means extensive, long-lasting and moisture-sapping drought is necessarily followed by flooding rains so be it!

From fire to flood.

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#1356544 - 02/01/2016 17:17 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seina]
Seina Offline
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Registered: 27/08/2003
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Loc: Adelaide Hills
Written 1st of January 3:15 pm ACDT:

The ITCZ troughing near the equator appears to be disrupted due to the tropical low moving south across the continental interior...it now looks like this low will pass by NSW and VIC, with rain affecting areas as far west as Berri and Loxton, then across towards Yarrawonga and the GDR. Chances of rain (specifically) seem to deteriorate beyond these areas, while thunderstorm probability increases near higher terrain. There is no apparent southerly track for this low in the next few days south of TAS (due to ridging in the south), so the chance of the isobaric gradients become stronger is higher along coastal fringes. Lower falls scattered 0-4 mm, higher isolated 50-100.

From the Bureau (VIC):
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
for HEAVY RAINFALL, LARGE HAILSTONES and DAMAGING WIND
For people in the
North East and parts of the
Northern Country and
North Central Forecast Districts.
Issued at 5:02 pm Saturday, 2 January 2016.
Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding, large hailstones and damaging winds in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Wodonga, Wangaratta, Bright, Mansfield, Falls Creek and Mt Hotham.

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#1356549 - 02/01/2016 17:42 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seina]
Seina Offline
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Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7768
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Again, please follow official warnings smile if you are in an area likely to be affected.

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#1356705 - 03/01/2016 13:41 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seina]
Seina Offline
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Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7768
Loc: Adelaide Hills
50-150 mm falls in the upper Warrego Basin to midday today. Flows meters starting to respond. Thunderstorm activity continues in Victoria, and seems to be spreading.

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#1356813 - 03/01/2016 22:33 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seina]
adon Offline
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Registered: 19/08/2004
Posts: 5338
Loc: Not tellin!
Good news! Hopefully the rains continue! Everywhere needing a good drink!

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#1357314 - 05/01/2016 21:47 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: adon]
Seina Offline
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Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7768
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: adon
Good news! Hopefully the rains continue!

Let's hope so smile .

Originally Posted By: adon
Everywhere needing a good drink!

Agreed.

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#1357843 - 09/01/2016 16:24 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seina]
Seina Offline
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Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7768
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Fire and flood, from one side of the country to the other, in a week.

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#1358949 - 17/01/2016 12:16 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seina]
Seina Offline
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Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7768
Loc: Adelaide Hills
16/11/2015 20:31:

Originally Posted By: -Cosmic- (naz)
There has been an increase in the local river water level in the last few days, of maybe half a metre, and the river is actually flowing. No rain has fallen that could explain this.

Spring-flow was most likely. This seems like good news smile . Plausibly meaning rain down the track.


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (17/01/2016 12:20)

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#1359604 - 21/01/2016 22:18 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seina]
Seina Offline
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Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7768
Loc: Adelaide Hills
The remote possibility of decent rain might not be so remote after all [judging by the local radar].


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (21/01/2016 22:19)

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#1359730 - 22/01/2016 13:08 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seina]
Seina Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7768
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: -Cosmic- (naz)
The remote possibility of decent rain might not be so remote after all [judging by the local radar].

11.6 mm early this morning grin smile . Likely more to come early afternoon with a STW issued nearby...maybe even some run-off grin .

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#1359857 - 22/01/2016 18:31 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seina]
Seina Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7768
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Minimal run-off.

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#1360014 - 23/01/2016 14:30 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seina]
Seina Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7768
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Blackwood River at Boyup Flax Mill has reached and is now falling from minor flood level in Southwest WA after significant 50-150 mm falls 18th-22nd. Some places recorded up to 75-100 mm in 24 hours [Bureau].

One station (Pemberton (DAFWA)*) recorded 174 mm in 24 hours to 9 am on the 19th, however discontinued recording after this.


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (23/01/2016 14:36)

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