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#1435581 - 30/09/2017 16:59 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Enhanced rainfall - 1st to 4th Oct 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
pabloako Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 30/03/2007
Posts: 1619
Loc: Ocean View, Queensland
Here is an extract of the forecast application I use (excellent little program called WXSim), which uses GFS data. It has been quite consistent for the last four days.




NB: This is for my location in Ocean View, so temperatures have been adjusted for my elevation.

_________________________
Ocean View, QLD. (Alt. 412m)

GFS + Long Range - http://www.OceanViewWeather.com.au/GFS
Satellite Images - http://www.OceanViewWeather.com.au/Satellite

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#1435587 - 30/09/2017 17:43 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Enhanced rainfall - 1st to 4th Oct 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2904
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
This high cloud to the SW makes an amazing sunset. Nice graphs pablo, thanks for putting it up.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (30/09/2017 17:45)

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#1435601 - 30/09/2017 20:57 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Enhanced rainfall - 1st to 4th Oct 2017 [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1878
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Looks like GFS has turned on us and finally joined the others. Model agreement that the big falls will be up in WBB and northern SC.

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#1435602 - 30/09/2017 20:59 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Enhanced rainfall - 1st to 4th Oct 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
BIG T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 982
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
September always sux for rain , our family has a longstanding bet with another about if Lismore will receive an inch or more in sept. Our mob take less and are way up. It's like taking corn from blind chooks. Been going in 40 yrs.

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#1435612 - 01/10/2017 06:28 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Enhanced rainfall - 1st to 4th Oct 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Blowin' Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 854
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
Well that's an upgrade, last night bom forcast was up to 35mm here, now up to 120mm!!!

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#1435614 - 01/10/2017 06:59 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Enhanced rainfall - 1st to 4th Oct 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2904
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Early christmas pressie, that amount in two days will fill our dam, yipee.

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#1435615 - 01/10/2017 07:32 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Enhanced rainfall - 1st to 4th Oct 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1455
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
Told you the rain would come in October, but i was going for mid October. But have to say very unusual setup for October and fairly rare to to see a low develop (if it does ) off Fraser island this time of year.
_________________________
If it's Flooded - FORGET IT

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#1435618 - 01/10/2017 08:07 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Enhanced rainfall - 1st to 4th Oct 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4683
So did a lot of other people as well as modelling paulcirrus poke

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#1435619 - 01/10/2017 08:13 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Enhanced rainfall - 1st to 4th Oct 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1087
Loc: Toowoomba
Thaks Ken

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#1435620 - 01/10/2017 08:43 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Enhanced rainfall - 1st to 4th Oct 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2904
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Frogs are going off their head, green frogs coming out of all the hidyholes.

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#1435630 - 01/10/2017 10:02 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Enhanced rainfall - 1st to 4th Oct 2017 [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4361
Loc: Brisbane
Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
Early christmas pressie, that amount in two days will fill our dam, yipee.


Even with the amounts forecast it will make little difference. It will take 100mm just to get some runoff given how dry everything is.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1435635 - 01/10/2017 11:07 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Enhanced rainfall - 1st to 4th Oct 2017 [Re: Locke]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2904
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
I meant the Dam on our place.
Those others need 200mm+.
Nearly all property dams around are bone dry.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (01/10/2017 11:12)

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#1435637 - 01/10/2017 12:06 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Enhanced rainfall - 1st to 4th Oct 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
redbucket Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 265
Loc: Regency Downs, Lockyer Valley
Itís nice to have something to follow. Fingers crossed for an inch or two.

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#1435643 - 01/10/2017 14:08 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Enhanced rainfall - 1st to 4th Oct 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5187
Loc: Diamond Valley
The latest Access-R has shifted the heavier rain a little north towards the WBB again. However, as you can see from the radar, this is a real time event now so we can make own observations.
_________________________
The original donut hole

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#1435644 - 01/10/2017 14:20 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Enhanced rainfall - 1st to 4th Oct 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10204
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
There were heavy showers on the Coffs Coast this morning. At BOM's gauges, 98mm fell at Sawtell, Coffs Airport 60.8mm (but for whatever reason it isn't showing it on the rainfall page but the figure is legitimate and fits in with other obs reported from the area), 42mm Bray St and 30mm Gundagai St.
Posted by Graham in the Sept Rain/Temp summary thread in General Weather at 8am this morning (Location is Boambee East, a few kms SW of Coffs Airport AWS):
Originally Posted By: Graham M
It began raining here at 2 am/3 am last night and hasn't stopped. 69 millimetres so far. The BoM had predicted a 20% chance of 0 to 6 millimetres. This ended a dry spell of 77 days, 6 hours and 10 minutes.

In September, like August, we received no rain. (And we only got 7 millimetres in July.) We've never before had two successive months without rain.

We set several other records for September, including highest maximum and minimum temperatures. Details here.
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South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
November 2017 Rainfall: 90.2mm (Nov Avg. 115.9mm) // November 2017 Raindays: 17 (Nov Avg. 11.7 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1458.0mm (Yearly Avg. 1491.2mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 145 (Yearly Avg. 137.4 raindays)

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#1435646 - 01/10/2017 14:33 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Enhanced rainfall - 1st to 4th Oct 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2904
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Wouldnt those falls be welcome here Seabreeze, fingers crossed.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (01/10/2017 14:34)

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#1435653 - 01/10/2017 16:17 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Enhanced rainfall - 1st to 4th Oct 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
wet sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/10/2015
Posts: 626
Loc: NENSW-Wet Subtropics
NSW BoM going for 45-70mm range tomorrow, and 60 to 90mm for Tuesday for tweed heads. But my question for anyone is why? I thought most models were predicting the low to be well north on the sunshine coast. Cheers.

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#1435655 - 01/10/2017 16:49 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Enhanced rainfall - 1st to 4th Oct 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Lani Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1059
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
Looking at the radar at the moment it looks much better down south. Kyogle looks to be getting a good drop. We've had light showers for a couple of hours at Jimbour. The ground is not really wet yet. Going to need a LOT more if we're to come close to predicted totals. Smells lovely at least.
_________________________
Jimbour rain: 2017-483.5, Jan-103.5, Feb-67.5, Mar-118.5, April-0, May-7, June-21.5, July 33.5, Aug-2.5, September-1, Oct-112, Nov-21

2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

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#1435657 - 01/10/2017 17:26 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Enhanced rainfall - 1st to 4th Oct 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1663
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Hi all, Not a lot for Roma only 9.6 mm so far .Forecast was 30 to 40mm .I was expecting 15 to 20 mm lol.
_________________________
Cheers Doug. 491 Doug/ uhf ch50 and ch40 When severe weather
BOM Stormspotter G0388 Roma S W Queensland Formerly Redcliffe.
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IQUEENSL852

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#1435660 - 01/10/2017 17:55 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW - Enhanced rainfall - 1st to 4th Oct 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
CirrusFibratus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/09/2015
Posts: 299
Loc: Strathpine, QLD
Rain has managed to avoid us so far here, guess tomorrow will be the go then.
_________________________
Wunderground station ID: IQUEENSL296

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