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#1435407 - 28/09/2017 19:31 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18424
Loc: Burnett Heads
Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: Mega
If the outlook charts are anything to go by, I'd say the tide is about to slowly start turning for some parts of the country very very soon.


I think were seeing it now tbh with our first nw cloud band & trough this season?

Small steps, models are also starting to look more unstable to me too.


Yeah it looks like it is on.
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#1435415 - 28/09/2017 21:45 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
snowbooby Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 187
Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: Footsoldier
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
There have been moderate low pressure anomalies over much of Australia for about a week now.

The forecast of extreme westerly anomalies in the far east has been shifted back and is still a week away, as it was several days ago when I previously commented. However more moderate westerly anomalies are in place. SSTs in this region look to be warming in response. While I had been speculating this may happen due to NE Pacific incluence being more important as summer approaches I have noticed that as well as the obvious NE Pacific influence there is also a large cutoff low in the middle of the South East Pacific ridge which I think is also contributing.

Forecasts for 7-14 days suggest westerly anomalies extending further west, which seems to relate to convection returning to the SH. This far out the forecast is quite speculative, and chopping and changing, but it seems the general trend is that the coral sea low pressure systems that do pop up are mostly a long way east, which is what was happening earlier in the year.


What does all that mean Mike? I'm a lurker in here and try and interpret what everyone is saying but it's hard at times to decipher. What's the layman's interpretation?


Hes having his usual each way bet with the underlying tenet being its not cooling its warming were having another El Nio


Nope footsoldier that's not what he said.

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#1435416 - 28/09/2017 21:48 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: snowbooby]
Footsoldier Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/12/2002
Posts: 169
Loc: Brisbane
Originally Posted By: snowbooby
Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: Footsoldier
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
There have been moderate low pressure anomalies over much of Australia for about a week now.

The forecast of extreme westerly anomalies in the far east has been shifted back and is still a week away, as it was several days ago when I previously commented. However more moderate westerly anomalies are in place. SSTs in this region look to be warming in response. While I had been speculating this may happen due to NE Pacific incluence being more important as summer approaches I have noticed that as well as the obvious NE Pacific influence there is also a large cutoff low in the middle of the South East Pacific ridge which I think is also contributing.

Forecasts for 7-14 days suggest westerly anomalies extending further west, which seems to relate to convection returning to the SH. This far out the forecast is quite speculative, and chopping and changing, but it seems the general trend is that the coral sea low pressure systems that do pop up are mostly a long way east, which is what was happening earlier in the year.


What does all that mean Mike? I'm a lurker in here and try and interpret what everyone is saying but it's hard at times to decipher. What's the layman's interpretation?


Hes having his usual each way bet with the underlying tenet being its not cooling its warming were having another El Nio


Nope footsoldier that's not what he said.


I gathered. This is why it's hard to follow this thread - too much BS. Pity for those who are after some education....terrible. *Sigh*

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#1435417 - 28/09/2017 21:52 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Footsoldier]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7503
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Last time I checked (a day or so ago) the ENSO outlook (meter) on the Bureau's website had, in big letters -- INACTIVE, which means there is room to discuss other phenomena as well smile !
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#1435423 - 29/09/2017 07:25 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Footsoldier]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3160
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Footsoldier


What does all that mean Mike? I'm a lurker in here and try and interpret what everyone is saying but it's hard at times to decipher. What's the layman's interpretation?


Westerly wind anomalies are currently occurring in much of the east pacific. The wind is still blowing from the east, but weaker than normal. These winds are causing the east pacific to warm and become less La Nina like.

At the same time the trade winds are stronger than normal close to us. These winds are causing cooling closer to us, and making the West pacific more La Nina like.

The west pacific is more important than the east (more impact on our rainfall, and more impact on atmospheric circulation changes the reflect La Nina or El Nino), so this is good. However changes in trade wind seem to have a stronger impact in the east.

Short term forecasts suggest the westerly anomalies may become very strong, and that they may spread to the west Pacific.

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#1435432 - 29/09/2017 09:34 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10134
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Well explained Mike, that helps me understand more as well what you are analysing and how you come to your view.

I'don't know who is "right" or "wrong" but it's good to see the reasoning behind the views.

This recent season and the coming months/year seems to be a little difficult for everyone to nail down. Perhaps another time Mum nature plays with us smile

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#1435435 - 29/09/2017 09:50 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2812
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Strong cooling trend taking place again in the Indian Ocean again! frown
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#1435436 - 29/09/2017 09:54 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: CoastalStorm22]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1593
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
which part? post a link. east is bad, west is good....which is it?

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#1435437 - 29/09/2017 10:06 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: GringosRain]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2812
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Originally Posted By: GringosRain
which part? post a link. east is bad, west is good....which is it?


You talking to me?
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#1435438 - 29/09/2017 10:11 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: CoastalStorm22]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2328
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: CoastalStorm22
Originally Posted By: GringosRain
which part? post a link. east is bad, west is good....which is it?


You talking to me?


He quoted your post, so good chance they are....

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#1435439 - 29/09/2017 10:18 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12969
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
I think he's comparing this:



to this:



Has cooled a bit off WA, nice to see the Coral Sea continue warm up.
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#1435441 - 29/09/2017 10:29 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1593
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
thanks Raindammit. Doesnt seem very significant in the IO and not in a critical spot? I guess you cant tell over such a short time frame. Seems north west moisture feed is improving if anything.

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#1435442 - 29/09/2017 10:30 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Raindammit]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2290
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Originally Posted By: Raindammit
nice to see the Coral Sea continue warm up.


The coral sea was warm all last year and look what that got us.

Warm water does not mean increased convection.

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#1435443 - 29/09/2017 10:31 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12969
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
This is the last 4 months:

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Bilyana FNQ

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#1435445 - 29/09/2017 10:38 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7062
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Not really liking the warming of the Pacific and the cooling of the Indian of the last week, hope it's just temporary:



EC / GFS have fairly slack trade winds from about mid-next week compared to the last month or two as well. Not saying La-Nina is aborting again like last year but it's definitely slowed down a bit recently.

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#1435454 - 29/09/2017 10:58 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2328
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
No surprises re: Indian cooling given there's been a tropical wave activity in the area with persistent storm activity.

The Indian Ocean's influence starts to wane significantly from hereon so eyes turn east - need Coral to warm now.

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#1435455 - 29/09/2017 11:02 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mega]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2328
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mega
Not really liking the warming of the Pacific and the cooling of the Indian of the last week, hope it's just temporary:



EC / GFS have fairly slack trade winds from about mid-next week compared to the last month or two as well. Not saying La-Nina is aborting again like last year but it's definitely slowed down a bit recently.


That chart is a little misleading as it shows the variance to last week. Best off looking at the bigger picture.


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#1435459 - 29/09/2017 11:22 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7062
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: Mega
Not really liking the warming of the Pacific and the cooling of the Indian of the last week, hope it's just temporary:



EC / GFS have fairly slack trade winds from about mid-next week compared to the last month or two as well. Not saying La-Nina is aborting again like last year but it's definitely slowed down a bit recently.


That chart is a little misleading as it shows the variance to last week. Best off looking at the bigger picture.



Not sure how that chart is misleading?

I never said it wasn't still cold, all I said was the cooling has evidently slowed for now...as you can see on that chart.

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#1435460 - 29/09/2017 11:45 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2812
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Originally Posted By: Kino
No surprises re: Indian cooling given there's been a tropical wave activity in the area with persistent storm activity.

The Indian Ocean's influence starts to wane significantly from hereon so eyes turn east - need Coral to warm now.


Don't forget the southern ocean influences either.


Edited by CoastalStorm22 (29/09/2017 11:45)
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#1435461 - 29/09/2017 11:46 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2328
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
My point is 1 week in a cycle a trend doesn't make. I'm sure that there'll be ups and downs (which CFS did forecast). Looking at the bigger picture helps identify a trend.

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