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#1435530 - 30/09/2017 09:50 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
CirrusFibratus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/09/2015
Posts: 299
Loc: Strathpine, QLD
Something I always remember is when I was a kid living in Brisbane if you had a real hot day in summer, especially if it was humid, you'd have a storm. It was almost a given.

Whenever I have a conversation about storms with people older than myself they always seem to say the same thing as well.

I don't know if it is just nostalgia or if there really was such a high likelihood of storms under such circumstances in the past.

To me it definitely feels like the last few years (even the last 5 years) have only seen a couple actual storms come out of the season, whereas in the past it would be a part of life for quite a few months.

Anyway, hardly scientific but I figured I'd share my anecdote as it seems to be a universally held opinion amongst the people I talk to in the area.
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#1435556 - 30/09/2017 12:08 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: CirrusFibratus]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1878
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Only been following storms since the early 2000s. They don't seem to have changed much over that time. Seasons are hit and miss, activity significantly higher and more severe in November and practically dropping down to minimal in the new year, sometimes a second mini storm season in autumn. Those are my observations and they seem to strongly contrast the way storms used to be according to you guys in previous decades.

I have noticed some differences in rain events though. There weren't really any significant rain events that I can recall from the mid-90s until the early 10s other than the 1996 upper low. But this decade has seen a glut of insane rain events - 2010/2011 La Nina/floods, 2013 Oswald, 2015 May ECL, 2017 Debbie. Long spells of dry weather before a rain event of epic proportions. And looking at future predictions it seems like this will become the new norm.


Edited by Nature's Fury (30/09/2017 12:08)

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#1435557 - 30/09/2017 12:12 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1878
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
I was also wondering how did people use to track storms and storm chase back in old days before the mobile network, Stapylton, easy access to modelling and so on? It must have been very difficult and hit-and-miss?

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#1435560 - 30/09/2017 12:21 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4681
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Only been following storms since the early 2000s. They don't seem to have changed much over that time. Seasons are hit and miss, activity significantly higher and more severe in November and practically dropping down to minimal in the new year, sometimes a second mini storm season in autumn. Those are my observations and they seem to strongly contrast the way storms used to be according to you guys in previous decades.


Might be because we were referring to longer ago (30 years ago and longer).

The contrast between then and now is a lot more obvious.

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#1435562 - 30/09/2017 12:52 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Rod H Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 01/05/2006
Posts: 24
Loc: Maudsland
I have lived in Maudsland Gold Coast hinterland for 53 years and have noticed a definite change in the pattern of travel of CB's.
Until about 15 years ago the CB's would always form on the Southern end of Mt Tamborine and track right over us. Then they started to change course either to the South or North but not over us.
It became very pronounced as the years went by and almost always veered away from here.
When I thought about it I realised that they were tracking away from all of the huge new housing areas that are springing up and were following the tree line/ vegetation areas which are cooler and contain moisture. It is so predictable now and always seems to follow this pattern. It's so easy to follow this by the BOM radar and is very constant.
I firmly believe the heat / dryness from these vast New estates has everything to do with this. It does make a lot of sense. .


Edited by Rod H (30/09/2017 12:53)

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#1435563 - 30/09/2017 12:55 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6621
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
I can't comment on the frequency of storms 30+ years ago as I'm only 30, but as a kid growing up in the 90s I remember (at least up here) there were more thunderstorms during the night hours than there have been in the last 20 years or so. These days we'll be lucky to get a storm once the sun goes down as everything just dies once it comes off the range.

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#1435572 - 30/09/2017 14:16 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1878
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Only been following storms since the early 2000s. They don't seem to have changed much over that time. Seasons are hit and miss, activity significantly higher and more severe in November and practically dropping down to minimal in the new year, sometimes a second mini storm season in autumn. Those are my observations and they seem to strongly contrast the way storms used to be according to you guys in previous decades.


Might be because we were referring to longer ago (30 years ago and longer).

The contrast between then and now is a lot more obvious.


That's what I meant. Storms back in the 60s/70s/early 80s seem to be so different to now. Wish I had seen some of the action back then.

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#1435573 - 30/09/2017 15:01 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 613
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
I remember the 70's and 80's being of the dinosaur vintage.Down in Sydney even late spring and summer thunderstorms were very common and packed a real punch and they would arrive up this way like clockwork the next day.However the difference being that we never had these warm to hot spells late winter early spring.The snowfields down south had great coverage a lot longer into spring and I think those factors have a huge bearing on the spring/summer season that follows

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#1435574 - 30/09/2017 15:23 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Prozerpyne23 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/09/2010
Posts: 238
Loc: Proserpine
I know up here in Proserpine, NQ we used to have many dry storms this time of year and the occasional decent storm, rarely with hail sadly apparently too warm most times but the last few years we seem to just get thundery rain.
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“The storm starts, when the drops start dropping
When the drops stop dropping then the storm starts stopping.” - Dr. Seuss

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#1435589 - 30/09/2017 18:19 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10204
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
The Millennium Drought was one of the events that contributed to the trend of decreasing rainfall in our part of the world in recent decades.
The super La Nina in 2010/2011 was one of the events which bucked that overall trend.

You can easily see from the below maps that the decreasing rainfall trend is a lot stronger in recent decades compared to earlier:




Looks like SEQLD's pain is the Mid North Coast's gain. The strongest of the positive trend in the local region during the 1970-2016 period is actually pretty much centred here over the Macleay Valley.

On the subject of storms, Dad's spent most of his life here in the Macleay Valley area (born in the mid 1950s), and hasn't noticed much change with thunderstorms. Much like current times, some years were stormy, others were more quiet. He does note though that in the early 90s during several very dry years (1991-1994) there were particularly violent electrical storms.
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South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
November 2017 Rainfall: 90.2mm (Nov Avg. 115.9mm) // November 2017 Raindays: 17 (Nov Avg. 11.7 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1458.0mm (Yearly Avg. 1491.2mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 145 (Yearly Avg. 137.4 raindays)

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#1435593 - 30/09/2017 19:31 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10204
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Kempsey and Coffs AWS's have officially finished September with no rain at all during the month.
In the combined history of the three main Coffs sites (1900-present), there has only been a rain-free September once before (in 1907). This follows August (2017) at Coffs which only brought 0.2mm, the equal driest August since a rain-free one in 1919.
In the combined history of the two main Kempsey sites (1882-present), this September joins the other Sep's in 1907, 1928 and 2003 as being rain-free.



Kempsey hasn't recorded any rain since August 5th when 0.2mm fell (56 days ago). Coffs hasn't recorded rain since August 26th when 0.2mm fell (35 days ago). Coffs has only recorded 0.2mm over the past 76 days (since July 16th). Dorrigo has received just 0.8mm since July 16th.

If I get some spare time tonight or tomorrow, I'll have a closer look at Coffs and Kempsey's extensive daily rainfall history to see if there are comparable dry periods to current one being experienced (e.g. a couple millimetres or less over a 60+ day period).

July-September is the driest time of the year on average for the NENSW coast. July-Sept this year has been exceptionally dry though. It was the driest on record for much of the NENSW coast. For example, Coffs received 8.2mm over the Jul-Sep period, easily beating the previous lowest on record Jul-Sep total of 24.8mm in 1980 (combined records since 1900).



Edited by Seabreeze (30/09/2017 19:42)
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
November 2017 Rainfall: 90.2mm (Nov Avg. 115.9mm) // November 2017 Raindays: 17 (Nov Avg. 11.7 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1458.0mm (Yearly Avg. 1491.2mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 145 (Yearly Avg. 137.4 raindays)

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#1435604 - 30/09/2017 21:21 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1878
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
I'm just amazed at how dry and dead everything seems to be at the moment. There are huge gum trees with just sticks for branches and no leaves. Carpets of dried-out brown leaves cover everything. Even the lantana is dead, and you know when weeds are dying you're in trouble.

Was it like this during the 00s drought?

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#1435607 - 30/09/2017 22:02 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Colin Maitland Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2383
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
As a kid in the 60's and early 70's, during the spring/summer storm season, every afternoon a storm would roll through around 3:00 pm (15:00) storm for about 30 minutes then dissipate and you would watch the steam raise of the road. From 73 on wards into the 80's they weren't as frequent but became wilder, darker, big CG's, CCs, night crawlers etc. The hail was more frequent and getting larger, around the 20cents piece size at times and more damaging wind and multi coloured fronts from purple,grey, black green etc. Also we had the 1973 tornado hit not far from where we lived at Rainworth. https://youtu.be/s1EBVb9AHvc

The original. https://youtu.be/HURlLa1CFWo

My father was a builder and doing a lot of work over that way and was blown away with the damage he saw on Monday the 5th. We went for a drive and and got to see a only a bit of the damage due to exclusion zones set up.

One day we had a storm that hit Rainworth State school and I remember everyone sitting in the middle of the classroom away from the windows, although the verandahs were quite wide the wind was howling, we had our fingers in our ears, it was deafening from the roar of the hail pounding the port racks, after it passed the teacher let us look outside and the hail was like half bricks, I had not seen anything that big before and not until the 1985 Hailstorm did I see it bigger. https://youtu.be/9DN0n3fF1u4

Nearly every Friday afternoon during storm season you could count on a storm as we played cricket against other schools. We always had to make a run for it.
The other thing was the Cicadas would go mad and you could count on a storm rolling through.
They were good old days.
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VK4FCDM (Amateur radio call sign)

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#1435608 - 30/09/2017 22:52 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Colin Maitland]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1878
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs

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#1435613 - 01/10/2017 06:58 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2755
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
I'm just amazed at how dry and dead everything seems to be at the moment. There are huge gum trees with just sticks for branches and no leaves. Carpets of dried-out brown leaves cover everything. Even the lantana is dead, and you know when weeds are dying you're in trouble.

Was it like this during the 00s drought?


I've been noticing patches of dieing weeds and the occasional shrub or small tree as well in places where the soil is shallow/stony/sloped etc. Possibly lost one or two year old citrus trees despite weekly watering. I think the heat over the last few days after such a long period of no rain has been quite challenging for plant life.

At least on the sunshine coast I don't think the 00s drought had short term dry periods as bad as this, it was more an issue of going 5+ years without significant flood rain to fill the dams. My parents did not run empty on tank water during that period but have just a couple weeks ago. I remember in particular in 2003 I was married at my parents place and regular storms in the few weeks leading up to it kept the place in nice condition.

edit: last year pre-Debbie was pretty hard on the garden here, and I actually suspect that the problem back then was that the previous summer had no really heavy rain events to charge the really deep soil. When Debbie came through I was wondering if it was enough to fully recharge deeper soil moisture, and I think it might not have been. Did some seriously deep digging - about 1.5 meters deep a month or so ago and it was very dry. High on a slope though.


Edited by Mike Hauber (01/10/2017 07:04)

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#1435727 - 02/10/2017 09:01 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Namarrkun]
DarrylS Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2011
Posts: 113
Loc: Camp Hill, QLD
Originally Posted By: Namarrkun
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
It will rain again. Maybe even this year.
Garry Youngberry on 9 news, was just saying it'll rain in 3 weeks time (28th of September he reckons)...so mark it on your calender...lol


I remember seeing this as well. I think we should give Garry Youngberry credit for being out by just 3 days with the forecast of a rain event that he made the call on three weeks ago. It's easy for things to be slowed down by that much when looking at models from that early.
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Camp Hill, Brisbane
View live weather station data: http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=IQUEENSL152

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#1435730 - 02/10/2017 09:07 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: DarrylS]
Namarrkun Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2012
Posts: 339
Loc: Salisbury
Originally Posted By: DarrylS
Originally Posted By: Namarrkun
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
It will rain again. Maybe even this year.
Garry Youngberry on 9 news, was just saying it'll rain in 3 weeks time (28th of September he reckons)...so mark it on your calender...lol


I remember seeing this as well. I think we should give Garry Youngberry credit for being out by just 3 days with the forecast of a rain event that he made the call on three weeks ago. It's easy for things to be slowed down by that much when looking at models from that early.
i'd forgotten all about that call he made...lol...seems he was pretty close

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#1436007 - 03/10/2017 19:34 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Namarrkun]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1878
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
We have definitely turned the corner. Rain/storm opportunities for SEQ for most of the week ahead, with coastal areas particularly promising for Friday and Tuesday action.

Looking ahead CFS has wet signals in SEQ for the next six weeks with ext GFS showing incoming fronts and instability across the next two.

Now the question is what will the storm season look like - wet stuff or the severe kind. And will November deliver epic storms?

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#1436016 - 03/10/2017 21:55 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Whisper Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 180
Loc: Gympie
Garry Youngberry was so good with his prediction. I asked would we get a public holiday for the special rain event and we did! haha

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#1436034 - 04/10/2017 08:17 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Lani Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1057
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
Next couple of weeks looking pomising for follow up rain. That would be amazing if we get it.
_________________________
Jimbour rain: 2017-483.5, Jan-103.5, Feb-67.5, Mar-118.5, April-0, May-7, June-21.5, July 33.5, Aug-2.5, September-1, Oct-112, Nov-21

2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

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