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#1436033 - 04/10/2017 07:30 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7050
Originally Posted By: Kino
It’s that bad they’re starting to talk about water restrictions....


Damn that sucks, it has been many years since water restrictions. I remember them from when I was a young kid around 2005 but no water restrictions since then.
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#1436037 - 04/10/2017 09:09 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Jimi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/03/2004
Posts: 999
Loc: Cammeray
It's a soupy atmosphere this morning. Doesn't feel like October.

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#1436039 - 04/10/2017 09:56 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Rob G Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/07/2003
Posts: 750
Loc: Porters Retreat NSW
Full sunshine out here - a gorgeous spring morning. It is the first morning this month that we've not had a frost. Plenty of green pasture, but without decent rain soon it will turn into a tough season. Currently 14°C.

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#1436040 - 04/10/2017 10:11 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
EddyG Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5129
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Beautiful morning here in SWR, even had some early morning fog.
Time for some stand up paddle boarding in the creek.
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#1436048 - 04/10/2017 12:30 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1798
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
A lot of cumulus clouds trying to get going here since 11am,time will tell though out the day if they develop enough for a shower or storm.a light NE wind blowing.


Edited by Stormy3 (04/10/2017 12:30)
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#1436050 - 04/10/2017 13:20 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: GringosRain]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2886
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Originally Posted By: GringosRain
Originally Posted By: CoastalStorm22
Originally Posted By: GringosRain
Originally Posted By: Stormy3
Yes.We could take that amount here,but no more.Jimi


Id take 250 in a day or 350mm over 3 days. Hurry up and send it! not even chasing soaking rain.....want a bundaberg flood. had soaking rain earlier in the year and it did nadda for the dams.


Are you dam's bone dry?


One dam is almost empty and I have never seen it empty. One dam has dropped 1/3 from being almost full at the end of June (only a small dam).
My main water supply dam is back at its record lowest level now leading into summer....might be 35% full. That might sound ok, but its terrible because if it goes dry there is no back up. Without some big rain in the next few month we are going to be in strife. The evaporation rates have been incredible.
The only benefit I can see is that the vast swathes of lantana that have taken over the area in the last few years have almost been knocked off. They have no leaves and about half the stems are dry but there is enough green in the main trunk to reboot if it wets up shortly. hopefully at least some of it has been knocked off properly.

I can see some areas of eucalypts where the bedrock is shallow under stress also (saw that around 2005/06 too). They wont make it through summer without rain. you know its dry when the gum trees start dying....

We had some rain earlier in the year, but it wasnt anything like what the coastal areas received, so we are in deficit from a much lower base. Double how dry it appears in Sydney/CC/Illawarra and thats how bad it is here.....probably double it again for the upper Hunter....


Sounds terrible. Even here were loosing mature trees, especially the ones planted in shallow garden beds, but even some gum trees are showing signs of stress and as you say the leaf drop is very noticeable.

The westerlies are gone now so things are slowly turning around.
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#1436051 - 04/10/2017 13:20 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
GringosRain Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1666
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
Best we can hope for is a little less evaporation Stormy. Still not our time yet. Nothing that amazing coming up either....but it is looking slightly better.

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#1436052 - 04/10/2017 13:49 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6040
Loc: Dural
As others and I have said.......eventually such a dry spell like this ends in flooding rains, or at least above average rains.
It's not a certainty and I have no science to back my theory up, just 4 decades of weather watching.
I really hope this will be the case this time as well. Not just for me, but for all of us suffering from this extended dry.

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#1436053 - 04/10/2017 13:54 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Homer]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2841
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Homer
As others and I have said.......eventually such a dry spell like this ends in flooding rains, or at least above average rains.
It's not a certainty and I have no science to back my theory up, just 4 decades of weather watching.
I really hope this will be the case this time as well. Not just for me, but for all of us suffering from this extended dry.


Agree, the greater the deficit the greater the bounce back I've found. Eg 1982/83 El Nino was savage; the corresponding year was mega-wet:





Edited by Kino (04/10/2017 13:56)

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#1436054 - 04/10/2017 13:58 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Homer]
Jimi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/03/2004
Posts: 999
Loc: Cammeray
Originally Posted By: Homer
As others and I have said.......eventually such a dry spell like this ends in flooding rains, or at least above average rains.
It's not a certainty and I have no science to back my theory up, just 4 decades of weather watching.
I really hope this will be the case this time as well. Not just for me, but for all of us suffering from this extended dry.


I don't think you need much evidence for this. A long term average is rarely met on a consistent basis when it comes to rainfall in these parts.

It's like stock market returns. The average return might be 8% but there would be hardly any 8% years. It's made up of plenty of years around +15% and -10% though. I wonder if we have ever had 3 months in a row of rainfall within, say, 10mm of average.

It'll come, eventually. The risk is it gets worse before it gets better.

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#1436055 - 04/10/2017 14:15 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4490
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
This quote appears in the BOM's summary for September in Sydney:

"It's been 59 days since at least 2 mm was recorded at Observatory Hill, making it the longest dry spell of its kind since 22 August to 24 October 1989"

Sydney in September 2017

We're now up to 61 days. This reference prompted me to check out what the following months in 1989-90 were like in Sydney. Here's how it panned out for rainfall:

- November - the rain returned but still a little below average
- December - wet (about 2 * average)
- January - average
- February - ridiculously wet (630 mm)
- March to May - wet.

The Summer of 1989-90 was average to a little below average for maximum temperatures, which in the context of recent Summers would be cool.

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#1436056 - 04/10/2017 14:25 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Steve777]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2841
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Steve777
This quote appears in the BOM's summary for September in Sydney:

"It's been 59 days since at least 2 mm was recorded at Observatory Hill, making it the longest dry spell of its kind since 22 August to 24 October 1989"

Sydney in September 2017

We're now up to 61 days. This reference prompted me to check out what the following months in 1989-90 were like in Sydney. Here's how it panned out for rainfall:

- November - the rain returned but still a little below average
- December - wet (about 2 * average)
- January - average
- February - ridiculously wet (630 mm)
- March to May - wet.

The Summer of 1989-90 was average to a little below average for maximum temperatures, which in the context of recent Summers would be cool.


Sure was...






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#1436057 - 04/10/2017 14:44 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Jimi]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6040
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Jimi
Originally Posted By: Homer
As others and I have said.......eventually such a dry spell like this ends in flooding rains, or at least above average rains.
It's not a certainty and I have no science to back my theory up, just 4 decades of weather watching.
I really hope this will be the case this time as well. Not just for me, but for all of us suffering from this extended dry.


I don't think you need much evidence for this. A long term average is rarely met on a consistent basis when it comes to rainfall in these parts.

It's like stock market returns. The average return might be 8% but there would be hardly any 8% years. It's made up of plenty of years around +15% and -10% though. I wonder if we have ever had 3 months in a row of rainfall within, say, 10mm of average.

It'll come, eventually. The risk is it gets worse before it gets better.


Yep. And I don't remember averages or stats that much, but love reading them on here. I don't generally have the time to do the research so I really appreciate the effort others put in here to provide them.
And I like your comparison to the stock market. Very similar actually.
Good years and bad years and works out as a constant average.
The rains will come, no doubt. Whether that is sooner rather than later, who knows?
And Kino is talking about possible water restrictions for the Illawarra. Quite surprised at that. Warragamba is currently around 90% capacity. I'd have thought the Illawarra catchment would be somewhat similar?

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#1436058 - 04/10/2017 14:54 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2841
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
http://www.illawarramercury.com.au/story...writes-records/

Quote:
Illawarra households will be spared water restrictions – for now – despite the region’s ongoing dry and unseasonably-warm weather.

The decision by Sydney Water not to impose any water-use restrictions comes as the Shoalhaven faces a return to usage limits for the first time in seven years.

Shoalhaven City Council last week warned stage one water restrictions were just six weeks away, due to a lack of rainfall affecting flows in the Shoalhaven River.

However, Sydney Water’s hydraulic operations manager Robert Ius said there were “no plans to introduce water restrictions to our area of operations in the Illawarra in the near future”.

“Currently dam levels across our area of operation are at 87.9 per cent,” Mr Ius said.

Woronora Dam is at 92.4 per cent.


Not sure why they are now that I read that article - LOL dam's at 90%...not sure we're going to run out any time soon...the Shoalhaven on the other hand isn't looking good.


Edited by Kino (04/10/2017 14:58)

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#1436059 - 04/10/2017 15:05 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
GringosRain Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1666
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
what was ENSO doing at the time? October 89 through March 90?


Edited by GringosRain (04/10/2017 15:06)

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#1436060 - 04/10/2017 15:10 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: GringosRain]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2841
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: GringosRain
what was ENSO doing at the time? October 89 through March 90?
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/lnlist/

having a looksie.


Edited by Kino (04/10/2017 15:11)

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#1436061 - 04/10/2017 15:13 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2841
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Looks like Neutral after big La Nina in 1988-89.

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#1436062 - 04/10/2017 15:16 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Kino]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6040
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Kino
http://www.illawarramercury.com.au/story...writes-records/

Quote:
Illawarra households will be spared water restrictions – for now – despite the region’s ongoing dry and unseasonably-warm weather.

The decision by Sydney Water not to impose any water-use restrictions comes as the Shoalhaven faces a return to usage limits for the first time in seven years.

Shoalhaven City Council last week warned stage one water restrictions were just six weeks away, due to a lack of rainfall affecting flows in the Shoalhaven River.

However, Sydney Water’s hydraulic operations manager Robert Ius said there were “no plans to introduce water restrictions to our area of operations in the Illawarra in the near future”.

“Currently dam levels across our area of operation are at 87.9 per cent,” Mr Ius said.

Woronora Dam is at 92.4 per cent.


Not sure why they are now that I read that article - LOL dam's at 90%...not sure we're going to run out any time soon...the Shoalhaven on the other hand isn't looking good.


Yeh well, the Shoalhaven should be dry. Ish. But I'm surprised it'd be any different to Sydney.
I suppose it's a bit different up here because we have that wonderful govt infrastructure called a de-sal plant which will back up any shortfall.
What a great spend of billions of taxpayers money that was!!


Edited by Homer (04/10/2017 15:17)

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#1436063 - 04/10/2017 15:22 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2886
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Could always be worse I suppose. crazy

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#1436064 - 04/10/2017 15:23 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: CoastalStorm22]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2841
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: CoastalStorm22
Could always be worse I suppose. crazy



The great Federation drought? Good point.

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