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#1436943 - 13/10/2017 15:16 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Scattered Thunderstorms, some possibly severe 5th-13th October 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Befour Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2015
Posts: 172
Loc: Summer Hill (Sydney)
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato

First of all, the main peak of the rainfall was always forecast to occur between this Friday & next Monday - it was never forecast to occur before then.
Whether it'll come off as advertised or not, we'll just have to wait and see.

I don't have a problem with people venting their frustrations with missing out on some kind of weather event as long as that doesn't become the only thing people talk about... I do it myself (especially during that seemingly endless ridiculous dry heat that started in mid "winter" and lasted for ages). It's a natural reaction after all.

Having said that, I do find it tiring when people endlessly judge an event on just one particular location or even district (depending on the size of the event) then extrapolating that to everywhere else and give the impression (unintentional or otherwise) that the whole event was a failure.
Warwick, nor the Downs in general does not equal the entire area covered by an event.
It's like saying Brisbane only got to 33C instead of the predicted 37C due to a seabreeze so therefore, the heatwave predicted for the whole of southern QLD was a failure. Or 75% of a region got the 200mm of rain that was forecast but because that remaining 25% only got 50mm, the event was a failure.

Not saying people should constantly heap praise on forecasts or think they're always right because they're not.... and no-one's saying that areas with bad rainfall deficiencies missing out on good rains is trivial or not annoying.... but I like to judge events on their merits by acknowledging the areas that lived up to expectations and areas that didn't, rather than judging whether the whole event itself was a "success" or "failure" simply based on what happened in just a certain or favourite location/area.




I think this entire post should be printed then framed and hung up in every class room, RSL and government building in the country.


Edited by Befour (13/10/2017 15:18)

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#1436945 - 13/10/2017 15:18 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Scattered Thunderstorms, some possibly severe 5th-13th October 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
WeatherNut96 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/11/2015
Posts: 60
Loc: Cleveland, Brisbane
something has to give today, so humid!

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#1436946 - 13/10/2017 15:24 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Scattered Thunderstorms, some possibly severe 5th-13th October 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Bone Dry Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2017
Posts: 81
Loc: Wolvi
Hopefully the BOM get their act together on the warnings a bit better. We just got smashed only to get a warning about it 40 minutes after the fact.
_________________________
Guaranteed weather forecast for tonight: Dark.

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#1436949 - 13/10/2017 15:39 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Scattered Thunderstorms, some possibly severe 5th-13th October 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Colin Maitland Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2383
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
STW for North SEQ


Severe Thunderstorm Warning - Southeast Queensland
for HEAVY RAINFALL and LARGE HAILSTONES

For people in parts of Gympie, Somerset and South Burnett Council Areas.

Issued at 2:09 pm Friday, 13 October 2017.

The Bureau of Meteorology warns that, at 2:15 pm, severe thunderstorms were detected on the weather radar near Kingaroy, the area south of Kingaroy and Toolara Forest. These thunderstorms are moving towards the north to northeast. They are forecast to affect the area northwest of Kingaroy and the area east of Nanango by 2:45 pm and Elgin Vale, Tin Can Bay and Bauple by 3:15 pm.

Heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding and large hailstones are likely.

_________________________
(coltan)


VK4FCDM (Amateur radio call sign)

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#1436952 - 13/10/2017 15:49 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Scattered Thunderstorms, some possibly severe 5th-13th October 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1087
Loc: Toowoomba
BEFOUR from Sydney
Why have you rehashed this subject? As I have said I was talking about a particular area of the Downs which really seems to miss a lot and after listening the Bureau forecaster on the ABC Toowoomba on Wednesday morning I thought it was reasonable to conclude that it was going to be a good event but for some, it was not. Did you read my reply to Ken. Unfortunately, it seems anyone who dares question the brilliant elite get surgically and brutally destroyed. I was silly and rude enough to start doing the same but realized what a terrible mistake I had made. posting on these forums actually, makes me physically ill but if everybody will drop It will be happy to just give reports from our nice new home in toowoomba.
Cheers

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#1436953 - 13/10/2017 16:03 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Scattered Thunderstorms, some possibly severe 5th-13th October 2017 [Re: NotsohopefulPete]
Befour Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2015
Posts: 172
Loc: Summer Hill (Sydney)
Originally Posted By: Hopefull
BEFOUR from Sydney
Why have you rehashed this subject? As I have said I was talking about a particular area of the Downs which really seems to miss a lot and after listening the Bureau forecaster on the ABC Toowoomba on Wednesday morning I thought it was reasonable to conclude that it was going to be a good event but for some, it was not. Did you read my reply to Ken. Unfortunately, it seems anyone who dares question the brilliant elite get surgically and brutally destroyed. I was silly and rude enough to start doing the same but realized what a terrible mistake I had made. posting on these forums actually, makes me physically ill but if everybody will drop It will be happy to just give reports from our nice new home in toowoomba.
Cheers


Hopefull of Toowoomba, wasn't aimed at you mate, that is why I also removed your quote from my post.

More so at a broader problem of people calling an event as a whole fizzers because they didn't actually see anything themselves at their place when the broader forecast area receives closer to what was forecast, as was addressed in Ken's post.

Enjoy your new home and I hope you get some rain!

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#1436956 - 13/10/2017 16:13 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Scattered Thunderstorms, some possibly severe 5th-13th October 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6623
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Absolutely smashing it down here now.

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#1436957 - 13/10/2017 16:16 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Scattered Thunderstorms, some possibly severe 5th-13th October 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1087
Loc: Toowoomba
Thanks Befour. I have always said I am very happy with what I have received. I KNOW THE NEXT EVENT IS GOING TO BE HUGE. I have seen this set up a few times in my life.

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#1436958 - 13/10/2017 16:23 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Scattered Thunderstorms, some possibly severe 5th-13th October 2017 [Re: Mega]
one drop Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 15/04/2014
Posts: 22
Loc: maryborough
Originally Posted By: Mega
Absolutely smashing it down here now.


gympie had a nice drop too. smile
looks like plenty more on the way.

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#1436960 - 13/10/2017 16:29 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Scattered Thunderstorms, some possibly severe 5th-13th October 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Befour Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2015
Posts: 172
Loc: Summer Hill (Sydney)
No worries, I look forward to seeing your updates and I do genuinely hope you get something. smile

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#1436962 - 13/10/2017 17:18 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Scattered Thunderstorms, some possibly severe 5th-13th October 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
kg8 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/10/2014
Posts: 96
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD and brisbane
Some big storms have popped up in the Beaudesert area but they are just sitting there, not moving at all?

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#1436963 - 13/10/2017 17:20 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Scattered Thunderstorms, some possibly severe 5th-13th October 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4361
Loc: Brisbane
If this is a pre-cursor to the rain event were up for a very wet 3-4 days.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1436964 - 13/10/2017 17:32 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Scattered Thunderstorms, some possibly severe 5th-13th October 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
fraccinstein Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/01/2013
Posts: 137
Loc: Burrum Heads
I love friday the 13th , when your gutters which are empty of leaves , cant handle the intensity, its a special kind of magic event, when the tanks and the dam are overflowing after 6 months of nothing , its priceless.Is there an aussie definition of a meteorological mid range point between La Nina and El Nino?, here in Burrum Heads it could be ,'yeh mate , its gunna be a bit wet with a bit of dry , depending on where you live, eh?

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#1436968 - 13/10/2017 18:51 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Scattered Thunderstorms, some possibly severe 5th-13th October 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Blowin' Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 854
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
Good to hear fracc.

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#1436972 - 13/10/2017 19:53 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Scattered Thunderstorms, some possibly severe 5th-13th October 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
LightningGus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/05/2012
Posts: 1121
Loc: Kingaroy QLD 434m ASL
We copped an absolute beauty at 2-2.30 this arvo. Formed right over the top of Kingaroy and dumped its load before moving off. Rain was torrential, causing plenty of flash flooding but geez the lightning was insane, CG's dropping like bombs left right and center. Closest strike must have been >20 meters away, but that was just one of many brown undies moments! sick poke Power was out of course and a big thanks to ergon for getting it on within 1 hour of the storm passing. No hail or damaging winds (which is fine by me) so I'm gonna call it as one of the best storms I've seen here in 11 years.

51mm at my place, yet the airport (approx 800m from my place) only received 25mm and a mates place a few k's south of town only got 8mm. Brings our October total up to a huge 138.8mm!
_________________________
2016 Rainfall: 604mm
2017 Rainfall: 565mm ytd

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#1436977 - 13/10/2017 20:31 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Scattered Thunderstorms, some possibly severe 5th-13th October 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
DNO Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/02/2003
Posts: 480
Loc: Ellesmere, Qld
I was just east of Nanango and they copped a good one too Gus. I'd just finished my job & standing under a steel carport. Was a bit winky making the 5 metre dash to the vehicle as the lightning was so rapid. There was a bit of small hail and Nanango was awash.

Got home to Ellesmere and not a drop here. smile

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#1436981 - 13/10/2017 20:53 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Scattered Thunderstorms, some possibly severe 5th-13th October 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
LightningGus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/05/2012
Posts: 1121
Loc: Kingaroy QLD 434m ASL
Yeah DNO I heard Nanango got belted as well. Had to go there myself after work and plenty of creeks up around the place. Shame you didn't get any rain but it came down that hard and fast much of it just ran straight off. Tanks and dams around here are full for the first time since ex-debbie anyway smile
_________________________
2016 Rainfall: 604mm
2017 Rainfall: 565mm ytd

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#1436983 - 13/10/2017 20:57 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Scattered Thunderstorms, some possibly severe 5th-13th October 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2904
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Bit of lightning earlier, Stapy showing a halfbaked cell trying to find its way along Gatton Esk Rd.

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#1437004 - 13/10/2017 23:42 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Scattered Thunderstorms, some possibly severe 5th-13th October 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 778
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Kararra and Leyburn area west-northwest of here is taking a beating from nearly stationary storms in the area. I would not be surprised to see a month or two worth of rain in few hours.
Nothing here today, but checking out a great light show.


Edited by Warwick Eye2Sky (13/10/2017 23:44)
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1437006 - 13/10/2017 23:49 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Scattered Thunderstorms, some possibly severe 5th-13th October 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 778
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Storms now developing closer to our area from the SW...
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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