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#1436083 - 04/10/2017 20:41 SEQLD/NENSW - Scattered Thunderstorms, some possibly severe 5th-13th October 2017
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10204
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
An increasing chance of storms tomorrow from later in the afternoon and onwards out in the western parts (e.g. Tamworth, Moree, Goondiwindi). It looks like places near the SEQLD coastal ranges and about the Borderlands may also offer the chance of a storm in the afternoon, but don't hold your breath.
Most of the SEQLD/NENSW region will have the potential to see a thunderstorm on Friday (the 6th). It is also possible that storm activity may continue into Saturday morning in far NENSW & far SEQLD (including Brisbane).
At this stage, afternoon and evening storm potential on Saturday will likely tend to favour the inland and northern areas of the SEQLD region.
Btw, dates of this thread can be extended if needed.

Some pre-event discussion has already occurred in the day-to-day thread: e.g. http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthrea...eat#Post1436041


Edited by Seabreeze (10/10/2017 19:13)
Edit Reason: date extended from the 10th to the 13th
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
November 2017 Rainfall: 90.2mm (Nov Avg. 115.9mm) // November 2017 Raindays: 17 (Nov Avg. 11.7 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1458.0mm (Yearly Avg. 1491.2mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 145 (Yearly Avg. 137.4 raindays)

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#1436130 - 05/10/2017 12:02 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Scattered Thunderstorms, some possibly severe 5th-13th October 2017
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4683
It's been looking good for storms later tomorrow (Friday) and night, especially in southern & western parts of our region where some could become severe (somewhat less chance further north).

A front with a much cooler airmass behind pushes up the NE NSW coast later tomorrow, and then up the SE QLD coast overnight/early Sat morning (timings per ACCESS-R).

A reasonable amount of morning sunshine for the region according to latest EC/ACCESS-R which is encouraging (although there might be some areas of low cloud around early on).
I just hope any overnight activity continuing over the Downs doesn't spread convective debris over us by the morning.

Shear has improved in the latest runs of ACCESS-R, there's no shortage of instability in those southern and western parts, steering looks ok, and moisture isn't a problem either (although some drier air in the lower levels in some areas may encourage strong wind gusts under some storms).

So given the general broadscale setup looks good for storms, I think it's now down to the usual factors like storm-scale interactions, the current less-than-ideal timing of the change for SE QLD but better for NE NSW (although I always prefer changes to be late rather than too early if I had to choose between the two), and any unforecast morning cloud cover/activity as to exactly who gets what tomorrow.

Here's a preliminary thunderstorm map for 6am Fri to 6am Sat (I've extended the end time to cover any possible overnight activity) - this map will no doubt change a bit by tomorrow:

P.S. and of course there's also some thunderstorm potential on some of the days early-mid next week as well



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#1436132 - 05/10/2017 12:14 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Scattered Thunderstorms, some possibly severe 5th-13th October 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2904
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Thanks for putting up the map Ken, any follow up rain would be tremendous.

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#1436134 - 05/10/2017 12:47 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Scattered Thunderstorms, some possibly severe 5th-13th October 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Befour Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2015
Posts: 172
Loc: Summer Hill (Sydney)
Thanks Ken!


I hope there are some decent showers in it!

Just out of curiosity how far down the coast does the thunderstorm potential look to go?

That orange patch between Brissy and Coffs almost looks like a warped map of Australia with Tassie still attached to the mainland - sorry had to poke

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#1436136 - 05/10/2017 13:02 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Scattered Thunderstorms, some possibly severe 5th-13th October 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4683
No worries Mad Elf and Befour.

Befour, I haven't run that script to cover down much past Coffs for tomorrow but one thing to note is that GFS has often had a tendency to extend instability too far south behind a coastal southerly change (even if there's little surface or elevated CAPE present in other models or analyses). Sometimes that excessive southerly extension does actually come off while other times it doesn't.

I think the MNC is going to be tricky tomorrow (far trickier than areas further north) because it'll be a race as to whether there'll be enough time for instability to reach sufficient levels before the coastal change surges through. The further south you go, the earlier the change arrives and therefore the lower the thunderstorm potential.
Then there's another potential complicating factor where if storms manage to form over higher terrain inland of the MNC coast on the western edge of that change then get advected onto the coast... or if it'll be too dry.


Edited by Ken Kato (05/10/2017 13:03)
Edit Reason: added stuff

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#1436137 - 05/10/2017 13:16 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Scattered Thunderstorms, some possibly severe 5th-13th October 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Befour Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2015
Posts: 172
Loc: Summer Hill (Sydney)
Thanks heaps for that!

Will just have to watch tomorrow and see how it goes.

I am mainly hoping for a bit of follow up rain in South West Rocks (which is that little cape sticking out at the very bottom of your map)

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#1436139 - 05/10/2017 13:42 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Scattered Thunderstorms, some possibly severe 5th-13th October 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
CirrusFibratus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/09/2015
Posts: 299
Loc: Strathpine, QLD
Nothing better than a Friday storm, here's hoping we get something during the daylight hours here.
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#1436140 - 05/10/2017 13:56 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Scattered Thunderstorms, some possibly severe 5th-13th October 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2904
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Some interesting looking cloud formations to the south and west atm.

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#1436148 - 05/10/2017 15:16 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Scattered Thunderstorms, some possibly severe 5th-13th October 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 778
Loc: Warwick, QLD
A couple of low top towering cumulus giving us about 8 drops a short while ago.
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Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1436169 - 05/10/2017 21:32 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Scattered Thunderstorms, some possibly severe 5th-13th October 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Lani Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1059
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
YR giving some amazing totals for Saturday night for us. Won't come off but looks nice.
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Jimbour rain: 2017-483.5, Jan-103.5, Feb-67.5, Mar-118.5, April-0, May-7, June-21.5, July 33.5, Aug-2.5, September-1, Oct-112, Nov-21

2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

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#1436178 - 06/10/2017 08:02 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Scattered Thunderstorms, some possibly severe 5th-13th October 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1087
Loc: Toowoomba
An Early morning surprise for Warwick.

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#1436179 - 06/10/2017 08:08 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Scattered Thunderstorms, some possibly severe 5th-13th October 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 778
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Yes indeed Hopefull. Pissing down at the present time with a few good rumbles.
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1436182 - 06/10/2017 08:37 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Scattered Thunderstorms, some possibly severe 5th-13th October 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 778
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Sun is now shining bright. Time to destabilise the atmosphere even more! Only a few mm with this cell, but it was a nice little surprise.
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1436183 - 06/10/2017 08:40 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Scattered Thunderstorms, some possibly severe 5th-13th October 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1087
Loc: Toowoomba
Wonderful;
Listened again on the ABC this morning. Sounds exciting.

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#1436186 - 06/10/2017 10:08 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Scattered Thunderstorms, some possibly severe 5th-13th October 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2904
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Warm 28C atm, bit of an E breeze & low cloud almost dissapeared.
Let the heating begin.

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#1436189 - 06/10/2017 10:27 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Scattered Thunderstorms, some possibly severe 5th-13th October 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4683
Even IF storms are initially confined to southern & western parts of SE QLD later today (due to less instability further north), there's another smaller window of opportunity overnight as the southerly change arrives along the SE QLD coast... although being overnight, the instability and therefore storm chances won't be as promising.

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#1436194 - 06/10/2017 12:50 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Scattered Thunderstorms, some possibly severe 5th-13th October 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1455
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
A line developing now out near Stanthorpe, good to see smile Earlier than i expected, may be in luck and get two rounds this afternoon smile Bring on some gorilla hail smile
_________________________
If it's Flooded - FORGET IT

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#1436198 - 06/10/2017 13:08 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Scattered Thunderstorms, some possibly severe 5th-13th October 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2904
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Yeah, right over Windsor, just for you Paul ;~}.
Clouds gathering nicely to our west over the ranges. Hot NW breeze.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (06/10/2017 13:08)

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#1436200 - 06/10/2017 13:13 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Scattered Thunderstorms, some possibly severe 5th-13th October 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 616
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Looking like the storm magnets have been carefully positioned around Warwick today

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#1436205 - 06/10/2017 14:10 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Scattered Thunderstorms, some possibly severe 5th-13th October 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
signalman Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/03/2010
Posts: 65
Loc: Warwick (Qld)
Not terribly powerful magnets Tweedstorm. As previously mentioned by Warwick Eye2Sky a bit of action with little rain. What has just passed Warwick delivered 4mm in North Warwick. We wait and watch. Cheers

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