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#1435970 - 03/10/2017 15:36 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2261
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
BoM thinks otherwise. I think most of us still leaning toward cool-neutral, as we've said many times.

Quote:
Tropical Pacific Ocean cooling expected to continue
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is neutral. However, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have cooled in the central to eastern tropical Pacific since mid-winter. These SSTs are currently cooler than average but within the neutral range. Waters beneath the surface are also slightly cooler than average. Other indicators of ENSO, such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and trade winds, also remain at neutral levels.

All international climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest further cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean is likely. Five of the eight models suggest SSTs will cool to La Niña thresholds by December 2017, but only four maintain these values for long enough to be classified as a La Niña event.

While unusual, it is not unheard of to see La Niña develop this late in the year—the Bureau will keep a close watch for further, or sustained, cooling of the equatorial Pacific. Of the late-developing La Niña events, their effect on summer rainfall has been mixed, with some leading to widespread wet conditions across eastern Australia, and others having minimal effect.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral and the model consensus suggests it will remain so. Three of the six climate models surveyed suggest positive IOD thresholds may be reached during spring, but it may now be too late to become an event. If a positive IOD eventuated it would be short-lived, as events typically decay by December.


Edited by Kino (03/10/2017 15:42)

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#1435972 - 03/10/2017 15:43 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18406
Loc: Burnett Heads
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
As far as I can remember you have not made any specific forecasts of La Nina.



...and you'd be right. I was leaning towards a warm neutral and said as much .

It doesn't really matter. What matters is that people be allowed to have a punt and perhaps more so acknowledge the input that makes the thread great.

I read most of your technical posts up until a few months ago and it wasn't the actual content that I had issue with but the way you ploughed through all year without getting involved in the actual discussion and then set on Johnno. I feel this is why people jumped up and down at you.

I have little doubt you have a reasonably good understanding of what's happening out there but when you tripped up many were waiting for it for the aforementioned reason.

Truth is the rather predictable cycle of ENSO development hasn't been very predictable at all the past few years. By the end of July a few years back you could pretty much see where ENSO was heading.

Not anymore, and despite the numerous lengthy technical comments and the more broad discussion of other influences such as the PDO, SAM, IOD and Cosmic Naz's recent offering no-one can say with certainty they knew where things were headed. No-one !

I haven't looked at the charts from a year ago but if memory serves correctly I do recall plenty of discussion , particularly from Chris regarding a LaNina and was quick to point out that there is no guarantee of one forming. Also if memory serves me correctly there was a second warm tongue at around 15 degs north extending off the South American coast from the "super ElNino" which was part waters that were several degrees above average that aided one of the strongest, if not the strongest hurricane recoded in the eastern Pacific .

So with that I also believe it was the delayed breakdown of those waters that stopped the onset of LaNina in its tracks last Spring. This year the waters are simply nowhere near as warm so the impact will likely be less. How much less? Who really knows?

Whilst ENSO is measured at 3.4 it is the waters just east of PNG that matter most here in North Eastern Australia (and why Modoki El Nino is so damaging to us) and right now the cool tongue has spread well west of the dateline. Not surprisingly there has been an exceptional response around the Wide Bay and inland southern Qld as a result . What's more interesting to myself is that it was all triggered once again by a Nth West cloud band with moist tropical air colliding with the cold air aloft ahead of the band.

A few years ago there was a farmer in here from Nth West Victoria who was continually pushing a set routine for ENSO .He definitely had an agenda . It was actually through watching him carry on and then seeing him wriggling out when it went pear that made it crystal clear to me that there is no pattern. It's chaos and if you are forunate enough to make an accurate prediction six months out then it is good luck, not good management. There are simply so many variables. It even tripped the world's best climate computers up this year.

Which brings me to another point. Before it began to appear you may have called ElNino too prematurely I was attacked for highlighting the fact of how reactive the climate models are by yourself. I agree that to some extent all model forecasts are as they have to be to function, whether for localised weather or much broader events, however I feel they have a long, long way to go where ENSO is concerned and not even your favourite has been too good of late.

My point is you have done the same to others . Let's all reset and discuss the actual events unfolding. There's no shame in admitting you're wrong . I named the very first ENSO thread "I predict a moderate LaNina" and it went the other way. That's the weather for you.
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#1435973 - 03/10/2017 15:47 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2261
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
My point is you have done the same to others . Let's all reset and discuss the actual events unfolding. There's no shame in admitting you're wrong . I named the very first ENSO thread "I predict a moderate LaNina" and it went the other way. That's the weather for you.


I wish there was a like button on this forum. Very. well. said. The reason why I am so skeptical of climate models is because they have no dealt with the last few years very well at all. They all need to be dumped and start again.

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#1435976 - 03/10/2017 15:50 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Locke Offline
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Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4457
Loc: Brisbane
Until someone consistently good predictions several months out without the inclusion of weasel words, then I'll take any predictions with a pinch of salt.

I don't think the science at the moment is up to the task. Too many variables whose interplay is not fully understood.
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1435977 - 03/10/2017 15:54 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Locke]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2261
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Locke
Until someone consistently good predictions several months out without the inclusion of weasel words, then I'll take any predictions with a pinch of salt.

I don't think the science at the moment is up to the task. Too many variables whose interplay is not fully understood.


Absolutely agree. I think it's also inbuilt biases in the models that are failing. Meanwhile there is something going on in the southern hemisphere that is not being explained.

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#1435978 - 03/10/2017 16:08 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
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Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1790
Loc: Kingaroy
What happened last year was that there was so much heat left over from the last El Nino that it practically smothered any developing La Nina and triggered strong El Ninolike impacts in summer of that year, even if La Nina criteria isn't met La Ninalike impacts can still be felt. Has there ever been a neutral followed by a La Nina the following year?


Edited by Chris Stumer (03/10/2017 16:10)

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#1435979 - 03/10/2017 16:10 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3123
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: ColdFront


I read most of your technical posts up until a few months ago and it wasn't the actual content that I had issue with but the way you ploughed through all year without getting involved in the actual discussion and then set on Johnno. I feel this is why people jumped up and down at you.


I've suspected as such in your case. I pointed out that Johnno had 'rubbished' a warming prediction made by the models (my one regret in that episode was not finding a less inflammatory word such as 'criticised'), and that the Pacific had warmed as predicted. Johnno was highly offended, and you leapt in asking me to 'come clean' and suggesting that I had some particular agenda. And it seems that ever since then you've taken every opportunity to give me a hard time.

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#1435982 - 03/10/2017 16:21 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3123
Loc: Buderim
On model performance, the performance expected of a model is that the actual result is somewhere within the range predicted. Here is the worst forecast from EC from April. May was about the same. March and June had a lower bottom end so that actual performance was within the predicted range.



There are one or two other cases of similar cases outside the range of EC, but they are quite rare, and in the large majority of the cases actual results are within the range as should be expected.

Of course in a better world the range would be a bit smaller, and it is a bit frustrating to deal with a prediction that can be as wide in some cases as EC's March forecast for somewhere between about -0.5 and +3 for September.

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#1435984 - 03/10/2017 16:32 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Pete R Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/02/2002
Posts: 56
Loc: Mendooran
I'm Sorry, But if that is all that is expected of a model then the expectation is, in my opinion, crap. If they only have to be in a range then anyone could make a model that is right all the time.

I remember very clearly years ago when the BOM forecast an 80% of exceeding median rainfall one winter only for it to be one of the driest on record. Thats fine, but then they defended it saying "well that means there is a 20% chance of it being below". I got the feeling that they were saying they werent wrong. Saying a model only has to be in its range to be correct is the same thing. It can be so wrong and yet its right. I just personally think its the biggest load of hogwash.

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#1435985 - 03/10/2017 16:44 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Pete R]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2261
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Pete R
I'm Sorry, But if that is all that is expected of a model then the expectation is, in my opinion, crap. If they only have to be in a range then anyone could make a model that is right all the time.

I remember very clearly years ago when the BOM forecast an 80% of exceeding median rainfall one winter only for it to be one of the driest on record. Thats fine, but then they defended it saying "well that means there is a 20% chance of it being below". I got the feeling that they were saying they werent wrong. Saying a model only has to be in its range to be correct is the same thing. It can be so wrong and yet its right. I just personally think its the biggest load of hogwash.


Hear, hear! That model is hardly within "range" it clearly shows extensive warming while there was cooling. A totally opposite mechanism. It got it dead wrong. No ifs or buts or excuses.

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#1435986 - 03/10/2017 16:46 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2261
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
On model performance, the performance expected of a model is that the actual result is somewhere within the range predicted. Here is the worst forecast from EC from April. May was about the same. March and June had a lower bottom end so that actual performance was within the predicted range.



There are one or two other cases of similar cases outside the range of EC, but they are quite rare, and in the large majority of the cases actual results are within the range as should be expected.

Of course in a better world the range would be a bit smaller, and it is a bit frustrating to deal with a prediction that can be as wide in some cases as EC's March forecast for somewhere between about -0.5 and +3 for September.


I'm sorry but that's clearly not accurate or true.

It's not like the model was 0.5c out showing cooling. It is showing rapid warming when rapid cooling took place. That's a total and opposite affect. The model is grossly wrong. 2 runs, out of what 30?, showed *slight* cooling only.

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#1435993 - 03/10/2017 18:29 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Pete R]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18406
Loc: Burnett Heads
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
And it seems that ever since then you've taken every opportunity to give me a hard time.


Actually I've shown a fair bit of restraint particularly on your attack on my comments re-north west cloud bands. I have evidence to the contrary but simply could not be bothered getting into it with you Mike. Instead it was sent to other members via PM.

I suspect some of your comments / beliefs may be due to where you spend your time in your local weather thread of choice and tend to repeat a fair bit of RWM's views. No disrespect intended by the way. Not to you or RWM. I read a lot of his stuff with great interest.

GOIMO.

Originally Posted By: Pete R

I remember very clearly years ago when the BOM forecast an 80% of exceeding median rainfall one winter only for it to be one of the driest on record.


In defence of BoM, they use models and historical data for similar ENSO status. This is the best available at present and they must work with it. Unfortunately there are many industries that demand long range forecasting and doing so outside of a few days is risky at the best of times.

There will likely never be a solid long range forecast that always holds as there is so much chaos going on. The models have gotten a lot better but are nowhere close to being perfect and outside a couple of days they will likely never be 100% accurate.
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#1435999 - 03/10/2017 19:11 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Pete R]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 170
Originally Posted By: Pete R
I'm Sorry, But if that is all that is expected of a model then the expectation is, in my opinion, crap. If they only have to be in a range then anyone could make a model that is right all the time.

I remember very clearly years ago when the BOM forecast an 80% of exceeding median rainfall one winter only for it to be one of the driest on record. Thats fine, but then they defended it saying "well that means there is a 20% chance of it being below". I got the feeling that they were saying they werent wrong. Saying a model only has to be in its range to be correct is the same thing. It can be so wrong and yet its right. I just personally think its the biggest load of hogwash.


I never take much notice of the "x% chance of exceeding(or being in deficit of) the median". Isn't it just a repackaging of data from a model. It might be more useful to make it "%chance of exceeding or being in deficit by x %".

But does that apply to all model outputs? ENSO variability is a particularly hard nut to crack so you might expect that the models would reflect this from time to time.

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#1436005 - 03/10/2017 19:30 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Pete R]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3123
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Pete R
I'm Sorry, But if that is all that is expected of a model then the expectation is, in my opinion, crap. If they only have to be in a range then anyone could make a model that is right all the time.


The point is to try and make the range a bit smaller so that it is useful. Obviously if you forecast ENSO between -4 and +4 you are going to be right (nearly?)all the time. The only alternative to expecting models to be within a range is to expect the models to be perfect and that is impossible.

Originally Posted By: Pete R

I remember very clearly years ago when the BOM forecast an 80% of exceeding median rainfall one winter only for it to be one of the driest on record. Thats fine, but then they defended it saying "well that means there is a 20% chance of it being below". I got the feeling that they were saying they werent wrong. Saying a model only has to be in its range to be correct is the same thing. It can be so wrong and yet its right. I just personally think its the biggest load of hogwash.


If the BOM make one forecast of 80% chance of X, then X or not X, it is hard to tell whether they are wrong or right.

But if they make 100 forecasts of 80% chance of X then you would expect that 80 of these forecasts would be 'right' and 20 'wrong'.

If they made 100 forecasts of 80% chance of X, and X happened 100 times then they would be clearly wrong.

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#1436008 - 03/10/2017 19:38 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2095
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Massive warm anomalies annihilating all those cool surface temps that looked so promising in 3.4 region. Very broad cool subsurface regions though so will need to see what happens when the westerlies stop.

Still a nice cool tongue extending into the western Pacific which is apparently still slightly cooling. CS and northern Aus is now starting to heat up big time. In the end this may be the only point of relevance for us regardless of whatever happens in 3.4. Still don't like the minor cooling trend in the IO off WA though.

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#1436010 - 03/10/2017 20:00 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 170

I’d like to give another plug to https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/jmsj1965/70/5/70_5_975/_pdf

I realise the authors’ proposition is all about external forcing of enso variability from the stratosphere and most of the discussion here is usually about intra and inter seasonal enso region factors, or the influence of adjacent regions. Well, the stratosphere is a very proximal region to all this.

The phase of maximum wind shear is a centrepiece to their proposition of a QBO influence on ENSO variability. The current state of the QBO seems to mirror the phase of maximum easterly windshear(or close to it) as depicted in Fig 2 p978 of their paper.

They propose that this easterly shear maxima will align to maxima +ve height anomalies@200hPa and the centre of enso warm events(westerly shear, -ve height anomalies, aligned to centre of nina events).

In their reasoning the only thing likely to prevent serious nino would be the lack of a fully charged warm pool(whether last years has fully discharged - a moot point?)

One other interesting thing to think about here might be the unusual behaviour of the QBO in late 2015. Had it not occurred then it might be expected that the QBO wouldn’t currently be in the easterly shear zone phase in the middle stratosphere at all , and, by extension, the outcome ahead might have been quite different.

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#1436011 - 03/10/2017 20:36 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7466
Loc: Central Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: snowbooby
Forecasting on this thread can be a pretty cruel and dangerous sport - at times it's been "take no prisoners".

If contributors had to put a disclaimer at the very end of their posts, and were consistent about it, I think it would be quite a different approach smile .

Originally Posted By: snowbooby
I'd like to ask everyone, on behalf of the many who enjoy this thread, that the temptation to get into a slanging match again is resisted.

I agree smile .

I can kind of find a sense of humour in all the discourse grin , yay laugh !


Edited by Seira (03/10/2017 20:42)
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#1436027 - 03/10/2017 23:55 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
S .O. Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 1540
Loc: Southern Victoria
i for one have used the word La Nina and still am in some circles .
I also clarified that worst case would be a Neutral slightly cool neutral .
For all the reasons others have mentioned above , last year a La Nina could not counteract the lingering warm surface waters in both The Nth and Sth Eastern Pacific mid latitudes .

This has pretty much disappeared in at least the Sth Eastern Pacific , the north east may still have some warm patches just north of the Equatorial region . but we are fast approaching a time when this region will not have an influence on Austral waters influence on Austral atmospherics .

Going on the myriad of failed forecasts of westerly anomalies that have been broadcast this year i see this perceived atmospheric pause as just that for ENSO's influence on our wet season .

There has to be a counter balance to the energy that was released in the last El Nino and for mine if it isn't a strong reflex , then it would have to come in the form of disrupted / sporadic pulses that will stretch out over a longer period . Lets not forget that proxies in late last century showed much more random fluctuations in ENSO related decadel trends , than the Black and White - cooling /wet transition to drying warm of the 1940-2000 period .

The science is infantile , reactive and this drives the models outcomes . To be read with a pinch of salt , no more than the elderly farmer in a paddock .


Edited by S .O. (03/10/2017 23:57)
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#1436103 - 05/10/2017 09:13 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3123
Loc: Buderim
GFS now going for enhanced trade winds moving into the central Pacific which should start the central Pacific cooling again.

The actual westerly anomalies so far measured by TAO are quite underwhelming compared to what had been suggested in the forecasts. If I'd seen a more accurate forecast I would probably not have predicted getting back to warm neutral, but we still seem to have got there (perhaps briefly though).

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#1436116 - 05/10/2017 10:40 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
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Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2805
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
I have to say I'm shocked at how much warm water is erupting along the equator after such a brief easing of the trades! The water surfacing west of the Galapagos is 3c above normal, yet you look in the sub surface and there are no warm pools to be seen. Where the hell is all this warm water coming from then?
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