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#1436117 - 05/10/2017 10:46 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: CoastalStorm22]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 159
Originally Posted By: CoastalStorm22
I have to say I'm shocked at how much warm water is erupting along the equator after such a brief easing of the trades! The water surfacing west of the Galapagos is 3c above normal, yet you look in the sub surface and there are no warm pools to be seen. Where the hell is all this warm water coming from then?


Got any link to that?

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#1436119 - 05/10/2017 10:55 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2790
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html

Have a look at the trend in the last 7 days.


Edited by CoastalStorm22 (05/10/2017 10:56)

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#1436120 - 05/10/2017 10:56 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: CoastalStorm22]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3059
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: CoastalStorm22
I have to say I'm shocked at how much warm water is erupting along the equator after such a brief easing of the trades! The water surfacing west of the Galapagos is 3c above normal, yet you look in the sub surface and there are no warm pools to be seen. Where the hell is all this warm water coming from then?


Water out that way can be near 20 deg C due to constant upwelling of water from below. Interrupt this upwelling and the tropical sun will try to push this water to 30 deg C like the rest of the tropics.

At the same time as the surface has warmed subsurface anomalies as high as +10 at 10 N have eased back substantially. This warm pool would be trying to rise and spread out, which would oppose the equatorial upwelling, and perhaps this effect is strong enough to have made a substantial difference in this case.

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#1436121 - 05/10/2017 10:56 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: CoastalStorm22]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6976
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: CoastalStorm22
I have to say I'm shocked at how much warm water is erupting along the equator after such a brief easing of the trades! The water surfacing west of the Galapagos is 3c above normal, yet you look in the sub surface and there are no warm pools to be seen. Where the hell is all this warm water coming from then?


Exactly what I was thinking last night. No idea where all that warm water is coming from.

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#1436122 - 05/10/2017 10:58 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2032
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
The Americans, on the other hand, are thinking a La Nina has/will develop and continue:

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2017-2018-us-winter-forecast/70002894


Edited by Kino (05/10/2017 10:59)

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#1436123 - 05/10/2017 10:59 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: snowbooby]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 159
Originally Posted By: snowbooby
Originally Posted By: CoastalStorm22
I have to say I'm shocked at how much warm water is erupting along the equator after such a brief easing of the trades! The water surfacing west of the Galapagos is 3c above normal, yet you look in the sub surface and there are no warm pools to be seen. Where the hell is all this warm water coming from then?


Got any link to that?


I dont have any easy access from my present location and without knowing if westerlies have been present north of enso region, but if what you've noticed is significant and remembering an earlier post about warm pool to the north-east - might it be driven by Ekman forcing? A lot of ifs to that I realise.

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#1436128 - 05/10/2017 11:49 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2790
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Originally Posted By: Kino
The Americans, on the other hand, are thinking a La Nina has/will develop and continue:

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2017-2018-us-winter-forecast/70002894


I think the Americans even called one last year. I think a threshold of 0.5c is to low I mush prefer BOM's 0.8c tbh.

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#1436129 - 05/10/2017 11:52 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: CoastalStorm22]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2032
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: CoastalStorm22
Originally Posted By: Kino
The Americans, on the other hand, are thinking a La Nina has/will develop and continue:

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2017-2018-us-winter-forecast/70002894


I think the Americans even called one last year. I think a threshold of 0.5c is to low I mush prefer BOM's 0.8c tbh.


The Americans are far more advanced on ENSO then we ever will be, given the $$ they spend and the papers they've produced. However, 1+2 & 3 are far more important to them than 3.4 & 4 which are to us.

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#1436176 - 06/10/2017 01:35 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Online   content
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Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1740
Interesting at the headings the US are already running with for their Winter

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-n...0GNmtE.facebook
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#1436181 - 06/10/2017 08:27 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: CoastalStorm22]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 159
Originally Posted By: CoastalStorm22
http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html

Have a look at the trend in the last 7 days.


Thanks for that

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#1436188 - 06/10/2017 10:16 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: _Johnno_]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2032
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: _Johnno_
Interesting at the headings the US are already running with for their Winter

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-n...0GNmtE.facebook


Already posted above.....

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#1436195 - 06/10/2017 12:57 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1552
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
subsurface seems to be getting colder. Westerlies abating. La nina show not necessarily over....? Only the weekly trend that looks bad.
I dont understand that trend map anyway....as it looks like a + 3 degree temp change in a week over a large area. The water in that area wasnt even -3 on the anomaly map, so it should all be back to white or light yellow colouring on the anomaly map if the temp has risen that much in a week... or were the anomalies purple and dark purple a week ago?

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#1436199 - 06/10/2017 13:11 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1552
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
referring to the top maps on this page http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html

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#1436227 - 06/10/2017 17:50 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 585
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Most regions have warmed. On way back down yesterday . EC 850 forecast and ssta data Twitter

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#1436273 - 07/10/2017 03:27 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 1829
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
How can anybody anywhere rely on models that continually have to be hindcast to fit current observations ?
Time and again we see predictions based upon the current best methods, that invariably turn out to be incorrect, and then re-adjusted to fit what has gone before.

I might be wrong myself, but is it not one of the basic tenets of Science that predictive skill be a dominating factor of any theory ?

I may well be wrong here but as far as I am aware, not too long ago nearly all models were pointing towards an El-Nino for this current period of time.

What happened?

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#1436274 - 07/10/2017 06:50 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3059
Loc: Buderim
Two other basic tenets of science are check the data, and that nothing is ever perfect.

The first prediction made by EC for October has a majority of its members in el nino, but spreads downward well into neutral. Every forecast by EC since this date has included cool neutral in its spread.



This is pretty much the worst performing forecast by EC I have ever seen. The majority look more like:



You can easily check for yourself the accuracy of past forecasts.

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#1436275 - 07/10/2017 07:45 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4446
Loc: Brisbane
Interesting checking the past forecasts. It doesn't seem to handle transitions too well which too me is a weakness.

It took 3 months for the model range to catch on to the shift to cool neutral.
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1436285 - 07/10/2017 10:36 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 159
Googling some of the difficulties with enso modeling-

.(northern )spring predictability barrier

.model noise which masks forcing of atmospheric transients and promotes error growth

.computational grid in models in general cant resolve fine details - possibly significant factors in enso evolution.

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#1436288 - 07/10/2017 11:05 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: snowbooby]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2032
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: snowbooby
Googling some of the difficulties with enso modeling-

.(northern )spring predictability barrier

.model noise which masks forcing of atmospheric transients and promotes error growth

.computational grid in models in general cant resolve fine details - possibly significant factors in enso evolution.


+ inherent model biases

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#1436293 - 07/10/2017 13:06 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
S .O. Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 1540
Loc: Southern Victoria
Yes for those wondering about that warm water surge of last week you need to go through SST animations to see what happens .

As snowbooby correctly pointed out its a very simple Ekman transport correction , once we see enough cool upwelling and the corresponding atmospheric link in the Far East you will see sea surface heights continue to gain a height differential Between west of the Galapagos and the whole region up to the Mexican coast .

So if the Sth American coastal SST Ďs are aligned as close to the upwelling temps , then you have a conveyor of southern Ekman feed combined with the cold upwelled Equatorial waters will sequester the warm waters down fro the North east .

The animations show this quite clearly , in every strong trade burst warm waters get dragged into these Eddies. And for some it looks like there are warm waters appearing from no where in the Oni 2 & 3 regions . It will also skew the data a little .

I must admit I donít look at or even take much interest in models outputs for ENSO , I used to watch Jamstec a bit . Falling short of saying a bias is present , I would say that they often favour the current trend.
If one month out thanh are favouring a particular movement , then beyond hat they will follow that movement if that first month movement is in the positive direction then it will ramp up in the following / second and third months of the forecast .
Then if an rarely there is a negative trend itíll generally go out to the third month and inva riable will forecast a curtail .
Never seen a runaway negative trend forecast , atleast in the last few years .

But I think Iíll stick to averages off raw SST patterns and animations to make my own decisions . That and a periodic pendulum pattern that eventually sees an opposite correction . So the longer a particular pattern stays , the higher the chance it will swing as it continues .


Edited by S .O. (07/10/2017 13:09)
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