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#1436464 - 09/10/2017 17:30 SA - Rain/Storms Oct 10-12 2017
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1655
Loc: Uleybury
Could this well be Adelaide's first storms for the season?

A broad trough of low pressure is set to move through the state later Tuesday following a cold front early Wednesday morning bringing potential storms and a decent band of rain.

Tomorrow, the BoM are going for a possible thunderstorm with gusty winds at night and continue early hours before consolidating into a rain band by morning.

Unfortunately, it is poor timing of the system as not in the afternoon/evening for best results, but we will take what we get.

City should see 6 to 20mm with isolated heavier falls, and up to 30mm in the hills.


IMO storm wise, it's touch and go but hopefully we do see some action Late tomorrow/Early Wednesday and develop as a rain-band by sunrise.

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#1436486 - 09/10/2017 20:23 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Oct 10-12 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 567
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Covered all bases well there Stormcapture grin
_________________________
"When the storm starts,
The drops start dropping.
When the drops stop dropping
Then the storm starts stopping"
... Dr Seuss

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#1436493 - 09/10/2017 22:18 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Oct 10-12 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7395
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
I suspect dewpoints will be quite high, temperatures mild smile .
_________________________
Silence can be beautiful because it is an avenue to peace of mind. Knowing oneself requires autonomy, an ability to laugh, and an acknowledgement one does not have all the answers...

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#1436495 - 09/10/2017 22:57 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Oct 10-12 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 567
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Likely so Seira... Look at those storms out to the NW over WA creeping into SA, looking insane!!

I would even go as far as to say looking at that, things could get very interesting here locally come this time tomorrow night with a bit of luck.
_________________________
"When the storm starts,
The drops start dropping.
When the drops stop dropping
Then the storm starts stopping"
... Dr Seuss

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#1436523 - 10/10/2017 10:41 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Oct 10-12 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17554
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Looks pretty wet Wednesday for sure. Nice storms out west today and tonight. Probably chance a shower central areas late tonight but not sure sparks will make it this far. If so would be pretty isolated.

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#1436548 - 10/10/2017 14:24 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Oct 10-12 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1631
Loc: Bridgewater
need a good rain

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#1436550 - 10/10/2017 14:59 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Oct 10-12 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14881
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Complex setup this one, big dynamic lift aloft from jetstream and upper trough further west with a good solid surface cold front. The jet aloft will promote elevated thunderstorms to freely form all night out west (big ones sfc based and elevated forming in Bight and NW Pastoral atm)...very lightning active and given the shear profiles, likely severe out there with damaging wind certainly the main threat.

As the whole system moves east it gradually weakens overnight, but will maintain scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms out west, spreading to more rainband as it moves east with more isolated or embedded thunderstorms. The timing of the activity into the Adelaide longitude is pretty ordinary, about as bad as possible really because almost everything else is excellent. Front passes around 11am tomorrow give or take an hour. By then the system will be tending more rainband than pure shower and thunderstorm as the uppers gain more cloud but definitely a chance of some thunder as it goes by before too much thickening occurs.

But out west is the go, west coast of EP will get an absolute shellacking and brilliant light show tonight across EP as well and the pastorals, heaviest of the rain seems to pass mostly N of Adelaide atm....Prob see initial isolated showers from very late arvo or early evening into the western spencer gulf, more likely towards middle of gulf into YP....prob first bolts over spencer will be after about 11pm or so....be struggling to see any bolts into the st vincent gulf till at least 130am but things can surprise when worked off the jet...the good thing is we have a strong low level jet forming ahead of the front tonight caused by the big lift aloft and good shear profiles to maintain storms that do form....also we have steep lapse rates atop a very warm low layer, quickly cooling into the mids with near dry adibat lapse rates where cloud level will be which is classic for rapidly forming mid-level storms...

TS cool

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#1436551 - 10/10/2017 15:03 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Oct 10-12 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 567
Loc: North Brighton, SA
I assume Tim your basing our storm chances tonight on Model data not current observations?
Clearly looks like storms approaching the metro area later along the coast from through Pt Lincoln way.

We'll See I guess my friend 😀


Edited by Jet entrance (10/10/2017 15:04)
_________________________
"When the storm starts,
The drops start dropping.
When the drops stop dropping
Then the storm starts stopping"
... Dr Seuss

Top
#1436552 - 10/10/2017 15:18 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Oct 10-12 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 567
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Excellent write up TS, looks like anything is possible looking at that, many many ways in which a storm could form across a large area grin
_________________________
"When the storm starts,
The drops start dropping.
When the drops stop dropping
Then the storm starts stopping"
... Dr Seuss

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#1436561 - 10/10/2017 17:03 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Oct 10-12 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17554
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
South Australia
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Severe Weather Warning
for DAMAGING WINDS
For people in Adelaide Metropolitan, Mount Lofty Ranges, Lower Eyre Peninsula, Yorke Peninsula, Mid North and parts of Eastern Eyre Peninsula, Flinders and Murraylands districts.

Issued at 4:11 pm Tuesday, 10 October 2017.
Weather Situation: A rain band with embedded thundertstorms associated with a vigorous cold front will move quickly eastwards across the State during Wednesday.
North to northwesterly winds are forecast to increase ahead of the cold front early Wednesday morning. Damaging wind gusts in excess of 90 km/h are possible over Eyre Peninsula from early Wednesday morning then extending eastwards to central districts, including Adelaide from around sunrise. Damaging wind gusts will be mostly associated with showers and thunderstorms, and over elevated ground.
Locations which may be affected include Adelaide, Port Lincoln, Port Pirie, Clare, Maitland and Jamestown.

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#1436563 - 10/10/2017 17:06 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Oct 10-12 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17554
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Originally Posted By: Jet entrance
I assume Tim your basing our storm chances tonight on Model data not current observations?
Clearly looks like storms approaching the metro area later along the coast from through Pt Lincoln way.

We'll See I guess my friend 😀


Both.
Basically along same thinking as TS above... good chance you'll see a flash or two overnight but just the timing along with a gradual tend towards embedded rain band is not good for us in terms of widespread storms.

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#1436588 - 10/10/2017 18:40 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Oct 10-12 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7395
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
The rainfall forecast from an empirical model on hand has increased since yesterday.

The forecast description is now (for the Hills):
"Moderate-to-heavy rain, possible very heavy rain."

I think a lot of that has to do with the moisture influx and surface air pressure.


Edited by Seira (10/10/2017 18:43)
_________________________
Silence can be beautiful because it is an avenue to peace of mind. Knowing oneself requires autonomy, an ability to laugh, and an acknowledgement one does not have all the answers...

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#1436595 - 10/10/2017 20:07 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Oct 10-12 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Stargate Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/09/2003
Posts: 730
Loc: Daveron Park, Northern Suburb...
All I know is the bull ants around me have built there hills on top of stilts..

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#1436599 - 10/10/2017 20:55 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Oct 10-12 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7395
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Ants on Hills trails too...for days.
_________________________
Silence can be beautiful because it is an avenue to peace of mind. Knowing oneself requires autonomy, an ability to laugh, and an acknowledgement one does not have all the answers...

Top
#1436604 - 10/10/2017 22:07 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Oct 10-12 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
*jr* Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/01/2011
Posts: 89
Just on the phone to someone in semaphore. Lightning incoming.

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#1436607 - 10/10/2017 22:40 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Oct 10-12 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17554
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Yer was a one bolt wonder.

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#1436613 - 10/10/2017 23:41 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Oct 10-12 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1631
Loc: Bridgewater
who turned the forcefield on?

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#1436632 - 11/10/2017 08:54 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Oct 10-12 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14881
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
No surprises with the dying of storms, it was expected but certainly not before they basically even reached EP....too much moisture in uppers which hasn't helped. Trough/front is still west so still unstable ahead of it but seems Upper SE and below KI are best areas atm. Rainband thickening for us now 8-15mm prob from it, still potential for a storm to get up amongst the rain but nothing much for the cameras sadly. If only this came through in the evening or late arvo....things might have been very different.

TS cool


Edited by Thunderstruck (11/10/2017 08:55)

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#1436646 - 11/10/2017 09:37 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Oct 10-12 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 567
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Between now and the main rain band in a couple of hours is our window for a decent storm to go up. Watch the skies, very unstable!
_________________________
"When the storm starts,
The drops start dropping.
When the drops stop dropping
Then the storm starts stopping"
... Dr Seuss

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#1436658 - 11/10/2017 12:02 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Oct 10-12 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14881
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
NNE-SSW aligned band of convection coming in, fairly defined core in it so def bolt worthy and heavy precip. Cells being forced up ahead of it moving over ranges and off towards the Mallee.

TS cool

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