Page 77 of 78 < 1 2 ... 75 76 77 78 >
Topic Options
#1432473 - 02/09/2017 09:40 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1804
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Next Friday looking interesting, could be some good rain in it.
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept-26mm Oct-18mm to 0900 20th.

Top
#1432956 - 06/09/2017 06:38 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1804
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Next Tuesday 12/9 is looking pretty handy for some rain, don't hold the breath though, anything can and does happen grin
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept-26mm Oct-18mm to 0900 20th.

Top
#1433954 - 13/09/2017 22:36 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Anthony Violi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2001
Posts: 2321
Loc: Soon to be Mt Barker - SA
Hi Guys, I am back. It looks like the cold and wet Spring is going to roll on, just though I would let you all know.
_________________________
https://avweather.net/

Top
#1434129 - 15/09/2017 21:27 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5791
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
After weeks of waiting, it seems like the Battle of the Air Masses is FINALLY getting ready to swing into action across Southeastern Australia! Hip-hip hurray!!! =D

Expect wintry weather to linger over Victoria tomorrow, but conditions are expected to moderate as a high moves in during the weekend. smile

Then the warmth finally starts arriving State-wide (not just north of the Great Dividing Range) on Monday as the high retreats and winds veer blustery northerly ahead of the next impending cold front; Melbourne's likely to hit 22C. Expected showers and maybe a stray thunderstorm as the front swings across the State. Then colder on Tuesday, with alpine snow to 1400m. smile

Then things start getting more and more exciting! The next high muscles in from the west immediately behind the front on Wednesday, and it looks to be quite large, strong, and slow-moving. But it sets the stage for what could be the next potentially MAJOR winter storm event, and just in time for the 2017 Spring Equinox! grin

The high's slow movement across Eastern Australia into the South Pacific late next week will allow a persistent northerly airflow to become established across Victoria from Thursday onwards. This should bring an extended run of gloriously warm weather, and it could become quite hot across the Northwest/Mallee region, with Mildura going for 32C next Friday!

A cold front slips by to the south on Thursday, deflected by the high. Behind it though, ACCESS and GFS have an enormous, deepening Antarctic low pressure system and more powerful cold front charging northbound across the Southern Ocean en route to Southern Australia. The winter storm enters the Bight next Friday and links up with a developing trough over the WA Pilbara (the Pre-Monsoonal Buildup has now started firing up across the Outback and tropical Northern Australia).

Expect the northerly airflow to strengthen (possibly to gale-force) across Victoria by Saturday week as the storm bears down on us, could be the risk of bushfire in parts of the State. eek

BSCH has instability for Saturday as the cold front and trough strike, so maybe our first widespread severe thunderstorm outbreak for the season? wink

Top
#1434231 - 17/09/2017 09:12 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1804
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Have to love GFS 16 day extended forecast locally, 113mm on 2nd October.......... smile

http://ozforecast.com.au/cgi-bin/weather.cgi?location=Boisdale.VIC&forecast=gfsext
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept-26mm Oct-18mm to 0900 20th.

Top
#1434234 - 17/09/2017 10:07 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Anthony Violi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2001
Posts: 2321
Loc: Soon to be Mt Barker - SA
Yeah GFS has a huge cut off at the end of the extended run. Wont happen of course.
_________________________
https://avweather.net/

Top
#1434270 - 17/09/2017 18:38 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6550
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
....but you never know!

....the good thing about weather forecast watching, ...its always interesting what may, or may not, be ahead.

....and there's a shi#t load of snow to melt in a rush up in the alps just waiting for such an "X factor"!

Also AV - what would a South Aussie know about central Victorian weather anyhow!! wink


Edited by Petros (17/09/2017 18:39)

Top
#1434279 - 17/09/2017 21:21 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Anthony Violi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2001
Posts: 2321
Loc: Soon to be Mt Barker - SA
Yeah Petros without moisture at 500mb it will struggle, I think we may see a straight line upper trough instead just outside the 10 days and that will leave no moisture behind it.

I do have rain forecast in week 3, however I am not buying the big indeed just yet.
_________________________
https://avweather.net/

Top
#1434293 - 18/09/2017 08:50 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Anthony Violi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2001
Posts: 2321
Loc: Soon to be Mt Barker - SA
The one in the end of the second week wont happen, but the one at the end of next weekend will.

Will all depend on moisture of course, the European isn't as bullish but GFS is now starting to think about a big event, similar to what EC has initially.

Looking much better this morning.
_________________________
https://avweather.net/

Top
#1434296 - 18/09/2017 09:57 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1804
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Thanks AV, would really appreciate any other site addresses you use.

I look at GFS, ACCESS of course but have some reservations about accuracy of EC at this location - https://www.yr.no/place/Australia/Victoria/Maffra/


Edited by samboz (18/09/2017 10:00)
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept-26mm Oct-18mm to 0900 20th.

Top
#1435994 - 03/10/2017 18:34 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6550
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Frustratingly for mid spring, ......move on - nothing to see here!

Top
#1436002 - 03/10/2017 19:24 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1804
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Promise of rain (with an optimistic view) for Fri-Tues P, models wandering a fair bit but once again time will tell.

Minimal fire danger at home, nothing to burn !!
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept-26mm Oct-18mm to 0900 20th.

Top
#1436476 - 09/10/2017 19:00 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5791
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Still looking promising for this week's upcoming rain/storm event... but ACCESS and GFS seem to be hinting that a potentially EPIC Battle of the Air Masses could be striking Victoria next week! grin

A large, sluggish high moves across Southern Australia behind the looming trough/frontal system later this week, and becomes the dominant feature for an extended period... until about mid/late next week, when the high starts clearing the East Coast and retreating into the South Pacific.

As the high crosses over Southeastern Australia the winds will gradually turn into a warm/hot northerly airflow across Victoria by early next week, which will strengthen as a trough over the WA Pilbara dips south and links up to the next potentially major winter storm for 2017. The models differ on the scenarios coming up, but both ACCESS and GFS have a ferocious cold front and enormous, deep low from Antarctica charging northbound across the Southern Ocean; the storm should be in the Bight in around 10 days's time.

Still too early to tell if it's likely to happen, but hopefully it does... and hopefully it brings some very, VERY stormy mid-spring weather!! =D


Edited by aussiestormfreak (09/10/2017 19:02)

Top
#1436581 - 10/10/2017 18:15 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6550
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Keep us updated please ASF!

Top
#1436829 - 12/10/2017 19:01 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Anthony Violi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2001
Posts: 2321
Loc: Soon to be Mt Barker - SA
In the short term, a blocking set up will bring warm and stable weather.

After that it will turn, and a fair portion of cold air is headed our way.
_________________________
https://avweather.net/

Top
#1436872 - 12/10/2017 23:22 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5791
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Still looks promising for next week! The models and synoptic charts seem to be hinting that something interesting brewing. smile

As Anthony pointed out, a stubborn blocking high will dominate the weather across Southeastern Australia until mid next week. A weak cold front brushing past Tassie should bring a few showers to Southern Victoria tomorrow, but otherwise the outlook for the upcoming 7 day period. Dry and mostly sunny with cool/cold mornings at first but becoming increasingly warmer as the high moves through.

Expect a warm to hot and increasingly humid northerly airflow to spread across Victoria by Monday as the high retreats Eastern Australia for the South Pacific, by which time the stage is set and ready to go for next week's possible rain and storm event.

A trough will brew over the WA Pilbara as the Pre-Monsoon Buildup continues to gain momentum over the Outback and tropical Northern Australia.

And the next potentially major winter storm for 2017 is still locked-in; a deep low and intense cold front from Antarctica will head northbound across the Southern Ocean, reaching Southwest WA by Monday. The trough dips south from the Pilbara into the Bight and interacts with the approaching polar storm, with the northerly airflow strengthening as the storm bears down on Southeastern Australia. Forecast tops of 30C for Melbourne and 34C for Mildura next Wednesday.

Likely to see widespread heavy rain and possibly severe thunderstorms late next week, which would be very, VERY welcome! grin

Fingers crossed... wink

Top
#1436907 - 13/10/2017 10:15 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6550
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Maybe stormy as the trough arrives to break a string of warm days ASF? - reckon its time for a thread!


Top
#1436991 - 13/10/2017 21:37 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Anthony Violi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2001
Posts: 2321
Loc: Soon to be Mt Barker - SA
GFS is on a different plane Petros, it has some merit because of its a surface trough and the blocks is at 500.

Still will need to be convinced, the Canadian throws up the upper cold pool which drives the moisture North and away. Time will tell, another 24 hours should be clearer, as it stands I am thinking, and forecasting, unsettled spell with high dew points possibly moving in on Wednesday and Thursday.
_________________________
https://avweather.net/

Top
#1437119 - 14/10/2017 18:41 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6550
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Ta for that AV.

The storm aspect has tempted me to start a thread on this potential wet frontal change.

Top
#1437133 - 14/10/2017 19:04 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Anthony Violi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2001
Posts: 2321
Loc: Soon to be Mt Barker - SA
Dewpoints are good, trigger lacking however
_________________________
https://avweather.net/

Top
Page 77 of 78 < 1 2 ... 75 76 77 78 >


Who's Online
8 registered (Pete R, DerekHV, StormSpottersAu, Steve777, Kino, 3 invisible), 280 Guests and 4 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
Evil Kitty, Jake, ka0tik_pengwin, Nullamanna WX, shaunandwendy, stormygirl
Forum Stats
29389 Members
32 Forums
23700 Topics
1465736 Posts

Max Online: 2925 @ 02/02/2011 22:23
Satellite Image