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#1451880 - 08/02/2018 08:57 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Just monsoon trough convection id say
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#1451909 - 08/02/2018 14:17 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: nimbuss1]
Squeako_88 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2005
Posts: 458
Loc: Elimbah 4516
Yep, it's now invest 99P. Models have it moving away.
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#1451913 - 08/02/2018 15:40 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 524
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Invest 97SH may be one to watch. It is a lot further east (beyond New Caledonia) and models suggest going east then turning back. No sign yet of any interest for Qld, but coming back a long way and so will be interesting to watch nonetheless. Albeit it is just a model speculation at present.
http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/southernhemisphere/2018/sh972018/

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...018020718&fh=30

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#1451923 - 08/02/2018 17:40 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25302
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Comes back along way but too far south. Certainly one to watch as you say. Good pick up.
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July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
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#1451926 - 08/02/2018 18:16 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7208
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Gotta love how the NZ / Tasman Sea trough magically reappears as soon as that TC gets close to the Aussie AOR. Classic.

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#1451945 - 09/02/2018 00:22 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23688
Loc: Townsville
Just like clockwork.

Im sure there is some sort of connection. Has to be.
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#1451946 - 09/02/2018 02:23 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25302
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
i remember the days when February cyclones had no steering at all laugh
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/kelvin.shtml
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Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

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#1451947 - 09/02/2018 04:52 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1863
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Wow Kelvin was all over the place.
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#1451948 - 09/02/2018 05:45 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 219
Latest GFS run has an interesting result crossing around Hervey Bay, as a Topical Depression or Cat 1 at around day 15. In terms of time, it's a long time between models and there's a substantial amount of time which allows the model inputs to change and alter the proposed course. Nonetheless, subsequent model runs have resulted in a more northern track being proposed in the model.


Edited by MangroveJack70 (09/02/2018 05:52)

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#1451951 - 09/02/2018 07:09 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4478
Loc: Brisbane
I've been noticing that the model runs have been shifting that system a little further west with each passing run.

12z was the first run to bring it back onto the QLD coast.
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1451952 - 09/02/2018 07:41 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 524
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
EC model also aligning to GFS

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#1451966 - 09/02/2018 09:50 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12986
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Latest GFS run has it barrelling towards NSW before dying in the Tasman Sea as it heads to NZ.
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#1451967 - 09/02/2018 09:55 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Raindammit]
ifishcq Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2018
Posts: 81
Loc: Rockhampton
Originally Posted By: Raindammit
Latest GFS run has it barrelling towards NSW before dying in the Tasman Sea as it heads to NZ.


NZ seems to get more cyclones that Qld & NT combined

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#1451987 - 09/02/2018 14:26 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7208
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Just two of GFS's 18z ensemble members even bring it back towards the coast at all.

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#1451994 - 09/02/2018 15:07 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
My prediction is it will be a coast hugger from harvey bay towards townsville but before it reachs tsv it will turn east and bugger off lol

Seriously. All models are aligning so far for that system to turn to the west. They differ on speed and t4ack but deffo all agree on the system coming back towards the Queensland coast.


Edited by rainthisway (09/02/2018 15:14)
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#1452024 - 09/02/2018 17:51 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Steve O Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3225
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Yea well that will be a first for me, I've never seen one come from there and make it close to our coast (im sure its happened before just not in the past 10 years that I can remember) That low models had going to NZ which seems more plausible. On another note and I don't want to bring it up but I had to laugh about Higgins not happy about the media talking it up lol


Edited by Steve O (09/02/2018 17:55)

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#1452046 - 09/02/2018 20:04 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1556
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
Stevo, quite a few times cyclones have come out from very far east (off the charts ) and barrelled into the coast and some to south-east qld. Not unusual and i think it was common in the eighties
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#1452074 - 10/02/2018 08:02 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23688
Loc: Townsville
I would never say it was common.
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#1452076 - 10/02/2018 08:05 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1556
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
Dawgggg , compared to now buddy.
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#1452093 - 10/02/2018 12:40 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
I had a look back in the eighties and your right. A few did hit the queensland coast in various locations and they came out from way east. Its uncommon but not impossible.
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