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#1456492 - 10/03/2018 09:56 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 279
Loc: Golden Beach
Seabreeze predicting 18ft waves on Wednesday. Must be a close encounter on the way according to their modelling. That is some serious waves!

https://www.seabreeze.com.au/weather/wind-forecast/qld-sunshine-coast


Edited by Snapper22lb (10/03/2018 09:57)

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#1456502 - 10/03/2018 11:52 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Steve O]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
Originally Posted By: Steve O
Just seems odd to post only graphics with no explanation and only a handful of posts and images that anyone can view on a website.


Was just heads up post of what the guidance is showing. Forums
are not really the platform i use these days (twitter). Size really should not matter unless your a woman laugh...

You guys being hardcore i did not think the graphics need any explanation anyway.





What was displayed on 90P graphic you pointed at was the
nrl image of the large mid-level gyre MG solomon sea.

Where the or how many surface vort's form within the gyre is
anyone's guess atm. Look to guidance consensus there.

One thing for/sure is the westerlies are are cranking in the gyre.


Hasta la Vista.

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#1456506 - 10/03/2018 12:40 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
whynot Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/10/2001
Posts: 539
Loc: Brisbane
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
... GFS is absolutely TERRIBLE at long range compared to some of the other models...


True. But, in defence of GFS, for many years it was the only decent numerical model available in the public domain for free. Quite a few of us cut our amateur weather forecasting teeth on it, and over time learnt to understand its strengths and weaknesses. On more than one occasion, I used GFS computer models to explain to Senior Executives what some of the severe weather scenarios looked like. Back in 2010, I sought a quotation for ECWMF to cover south east Queensland and surrounds, and they came back with a price of $250K per annum. GFS is not perfect, but it is sure better than nothing, and it is hard to argue with the price.

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#1456507 - 10/03/2018 12:54 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5169
whynot: Yep I agree that itís great that itís free especially back on the days before data from some of the other models started becoming more widely available publicly. And it still has some good points in that it does particularly well in short-range TC track performance once a TCís formed and its intensity has steadied off.
It has less of an advantage now though with all sorts of variables from more reliable models like the ECMWF being freely available in the public domain from a range of websites. Itís also become a bit of a double edge sword as well in this day and age of clickbait media with so many media outlets sharing a doomsday GFS map for some TC hitting the coast 14 days out.

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#1456517 - 10/03/2018 14:54 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 218
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
whynot: Yep I agree that itís great that itís free especially back on the days before data from some of the other models started becoming more widely available publicly. And it still has some good points in that it does particularly well in short-range TC track performance once a TCís formed and its intensity has steadied off.
It has less of an advantage now though with all sorts of variables from more reliable models like the ECMWF being freely available in the public domain from a range of websites. Itís also become a bit of a double edge sword as well in this day and age of clickbait media with so many media outlets sharing a doomsday GFS map for some TC hitting the coast 14 days out.



Spot on Ken. I am constantly amazed at how quickly the media can 'jump on the bandwagon', only to have a number of Models in front of me thinking, "really". It's beyond embarrassing.

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#1456528 - 10/03/2018 17:07 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: whynot]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6988
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: whynot
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
... GFS is absolutely TERRIBLE at long range compared to some of the other models...


True. But, in defence of GFS, for many years it was the only decent numerical model available in the public domain for free. Quite a few of us cut our amateur weather forecasting teeth on it, and over time learnt to understand its strengths and weaknesses. On more than one occasion, I used GFS computer models to explain to Senior Executives what some of the severe weather scenarios looked like. Back in 2010, I sought a quotation for ECWMF to cover south east Queensland and surrounds, and they came back with a price of $250K per annum. GFS is not perfect, but it is sure better than nothing, and it is hard to argue with the price.


I still remember using the old AVN plotter program back in the early - mid 00's to download GFS data from NOAA before we had BSCH and all the others. Ah, those were the days.

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#1456551 - 10/03/2018 20:22 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5169
Originally Posted By: nimbuss1
Correct me if im wrong Ken, but is there a difference in MT plotting?
And if so, its quite an unpredictable time??
Love tropical times in the far north!
Sorry still not sure what you mean.
The first chart you posted were forecast charts starting from the following day while the second chart was the analysis chart for that current day. So it's impossible to compare the two because one was forecast and the other was observed.

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#1456557 - 10/03/2018 21:13 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1538
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
OMG, Whats people thoughts for next week....
_________________________
If it's Flooded - FORGET IT

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#1456558 - 10/03/2018 21:16 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3132
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
0% chance of anything

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#1456565 - 10/03/2018 21:55 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1147
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Brisbane has been hit by cyclones in the past but not for a long time.
It will happen again and itll be caos
_________________________
Wynnum SE Brisbane

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#1456567 - 10/03/2018 22:02 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
windy poon Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 11/02/2011
Posts: 1
Be prepared then relieved when nothing happens. Ready for a weather event should it occur here in Yeppoon

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#1456569 - 10/03/2018 22:13 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Dan101 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/03/2011
Posts: 312
Loc: Mackay, QLD
Just started a new thread for Invest 90P: http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthrea...018#Post1456568

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#1456573 - 10/03/2018 22:24 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: paulcirrus]
gawain Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2007
Posts: 465
Loc: Highgate Hill Brisvegas
As Mathew used to say it's 50% 50%

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#1456583 - 10/03/2018 23:39 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: gawain]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6789
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
Yeah that what I am thinking at the moment.

Good point.


Edited by Mathew (10/03/2018 23:46)
_________________________
Rs tl 2017/18 Wet Season.
Aug 8/16/17->> 11/23/17 8:00am p 24 h 27.17mm
12/17/17 Dec 7:52pm GR 0.00mm > 24 past 0.00mm > 0.00mm

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#1456584 - 10/03/2018 23:44 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Mathew]
Dan101 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/03/2011
Posts: 312
Loc: Mackay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Mathew
Yeah that what I am thinking at the moment.

Good point.


Gold! Good to see you back, Mathew. 😊👍🏻

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#1456586 - 10/03/2018 23:51 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Dan101]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6789
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
Thanks you.

I am also watching an another low might developing into some things big in the Pacific.

It's might do some things.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscol.html
_________________________
Rs tl 2017/18 Wet Season.
Aug 8/16/17->> 11/23/17 8:00am p 24 h 27.17mm
12/17/17 Dec 7:52pm GR 0.00mm > 24 past 0.00mm > 0.00mm

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#1456588 - 11/03/2018 00:07 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 337
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
What are the factors that make Tropical lows/cyclones so hard to predict?

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#1456614 - 11/03/2018 10:37 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: paulcirrus]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Originally Posted By: paulcirrus
OMG, Whats people thoughts for next week....

I'm thinking East coast TC off to NZ and then GOC and Coral Sea initiates two Cyclone to move across into WA. Thanks guys. cheers poke
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1456644 - 11/03/2018 14:32 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Dan101 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/03/2011
Posts: 312
Loc: Mackay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Popeye
Originally Posted By: paulcirrus
OMG, Whats people thoughts for next week....

I'm thinking East coast TC off to NZ and then GOC and Coral Sea initiates two Cyclone to move across into WA. Thanks guys. cheers poke


If Popeye was the woman, and Qld was the dog...


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#1456658 - 11/03/2018 16:23 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 805
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Coastal crossing is out the question me thinks...all models agree with heading for seqld then off to graveyard
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Apr 2018]: 10mm (Ave 136mm)
Mar 2018: 679.9mm (avg 329.6mm)
YTD 2018 1787.3mm (Avg 1952.1mm)

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