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#1456662 - 11/03/2018 16:40 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: ashestoashes]
nimbuss1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/11/2013
Posts: 298
Loc: Kamerunga, Cairns
Originally Posted By: ashestoashes
What are the factors that make Tropical lows/cyclones so hard to predict?

For a cyclone to form several preconditions must be met:
1. Warm ocean waters (of at least 26.5C) throughout a sufficient depth (unknown how deep, but at least on the order of 50 m). Warm waters are necessary to fuel the heat engine of the tropical cyclone.
2. An atmosphere which cools fast enough with height (is "unstable" enough) such that it encourages thunderstorm activity. It is the thunderstorm activity which allows the heat stored in the ocean waters to be liberated for the tropical cyclone development.
3. Relatively moist layers near the mid-troposphere (5 km). Dry mid levels are not conducive for allowing the continuing development of widespread thunderstorm activity.
4. A minimum distance of around 500 km from the equator. Some of the earth's spin (Coriolis force) is needed to maintain the low pressure of the system. (Systems can form closer to the equator but it's a rare event)
5. A pre-existing disturbance near the surface with sufficient spin (vorticity) and inflow (convergence). Tropical cyclones cannot be generated spontaneously. To develop, they require a weakly organised system with sizeable spin and low level inflow.
6. Little change in the wind with height (low vertical wind shear, i.e. less than 40 km/h from surface to tropopause). Large values of wind shear tend to disrupt the organisation of the thunderstorms that are important to the inner part of a cyclone.

Having these conditions met is necessary, but not sufficient as many disturbances that appear to have favourable conditions do not develop.

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#1456665 - 11/03/2018 16:49 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
Storm across the topend originates and drops down from the indonesian archipelago. Totally different from the two that EC spins up in the coral sea.



Edited by Rossby (11/03/2018 16:51)

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#1456670 - 11/03/2018 17:24 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Rossby]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
Originally Posted By: Rossby
Storm across the topend originates and drops down from the indonesian archipelago. Totally different from the two that EC spins up in the coral sea.




00Z UKMET drops it down from the archipelago and sends east. A big split between the two bests models atm

https://imgur.com/6THpfB6

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#1456675 - 11/03/2018 17:53 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 405
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Thanks for that Nimbuss1

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#1457022 - 13/03/2018 18:54 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 808
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Bom 4 day charts show a low bringing the monsoon closer to north qld...good region to watch as TC linda is not gonna do a great deal by the looks of it.
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Travelling - Current location= Toomulla

MTD (July 2018]: 0.9mm
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#1457125 - 14/03/2018 10:17 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3207
Loc: Buderim
GFS definitely considering that another system is possible.

but at day 14....

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#1457127 - 14/03/2018 10:21 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Mike Hauber]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 808
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
GFS definitely considering that another system is possible.

but at day 14....


I wouldnt take any notice..GFS'long range modelling has been quite bad this year.
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Nikko

Travelling - Current location= Toomulla

MTD (July 2018]: 0.9mm
JUNE 2018: 0.9mm

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#1457128 - 14/03/2018 10:30 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5300
It's terrible at long range every year lol

May be entertaining to watch and provide a talking point (like that supposed "twin cyclone bomb" it was going to hit SE QLD with), and may or may not come off but the deterministic version of GFS is close to using a dartboard at that range.

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#1457129 - 14/03/2018 10:36 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3207
Loc: Buderim
I think GFS in week 2 has been ok in identifying general trends in tropical activity. But arguably no better than using the MJO forecasts which suggests MJO in westpac at that range.

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#1457131 - 14/03/2018 10:40 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
ol mate Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/03/2010
Posts: 1141
Loc: Ingham, North Qld
so much for the 'SCAREY' cyclone...
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#1457137 - 14/03/2018 12:09 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: ol mate]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4142
Loc: El Arish
Originally Posted By: ol mate
so much for the 'SCAREY' cyclone...


Yeah, and also...

Weather guru predicts cyclone will cross Qld coast
by Olivia Grace-Curran, Townsville Bulletin
15th Feb 2018 1:45 PM
A TROPICAL cyclone set to impact Queensland will develop in the Coral Sea in the next fortnight, according to one long-range weather forecaster


https://www.sunshinecoastdaily.com.au/ne...3336187/?ref=hs

Police are onto it....
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#1457143 - 14/03/2018 13:06 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mad Elf #1.5 Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3423
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
That GFS 14 day map looks interesting, on a dart board.
Nevertheless, something to amuse & cause discussion.
Ex Linda still a nice looking feature on Himawari.

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#1457153 - 14/03/2018 14:34 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4466
Loc: Brisbane
Linda's still generating some strong winds with Cato Island recording a gust of 111kmh just before midday.
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1457156 - 14/03/2018 15:20 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Aussea Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2012
Posts: 52
Loc: Taree, Nsw
Is this thing heading back to the SE Coast after a bit of a loopy de loop?

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/meteye/

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#1457158 - 14/03/2018 15:36 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Phantom Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/01/2009
Posts: 204
Loc: Buckendoon, NSW. 2472
A long way away but it looks like circulation beginning at about 170 - 180 degrees x 5degrees south on the Himawari-8 sat, around about where Yasi came from;)

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#1457173 - 14/03/2018 18:15 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 808
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Originally Posted By: @_Yasified_shak
Originally Posted By: ol mate
so much for the 'SCAREY' cyclone...


Yeah, and also...

Weather guru predicts cyclone will cross Qld coast
by Olivia Grace-Curran, Townsville Bulletin
15th Feb 2018 1:45 PM
A TROPICAL cyclone set to impact Queensland will develop in the Coral Sea in the next fortnight, according to one long-range weather forecaster


https://www.sunshinecoastdaily.com.au/ne...3336187/?ref=hs

Police are onto it....


They will still claim they predicted it right.
_________________________
Nikko

Travelling - Current location= Toomulla

MTD (July 2018]: 0.9mm
JUNE 2018: 0.9mm

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#1457180 - 14/03/2018 19:17 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3194
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
The thing is HSC never actually said the systen would impact QLD as a TC they planted the thoughts into the viewers head with possibility and uncertainty to keep em on the edge of the seat and people being so stupid they started creating a scenario and the sheep ate it up. The actual un-hyped forecast in the subscription that you pay and I guess they think they've gotten something informative that they could of just got for free on FB or various and many other websites etc. Mean while thats another hyped up non event and 10000 more followers and everyone talking about them.

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#1457183 - 14/03/2018 19:29 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23688
Loc: Townsville
Bull [censored]

He posted a picture with an arrow pointing straight at Brisbane.
Then wouldnt tell anyone about the possibilites unless they signed up.
Complete Grubbyness. Thomas is just as bad the little girl.
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2015/16 Storms
13 Storms 2500km travelled

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#1457184 - 14/03/2018 19:30 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23688
Loc: Townsville
75% model shift towards SE QLD apparently too!

he needs to lay off the drugs. Quickly.

I hope theres another public drug rant comin!
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2015/16 Storms
13 Storms 2500km travelled

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#1457185 - 14/03/2018 19:34 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7115
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
Bull [censored]

He posted a picture with an arrow pointing straight at Brisbane.
Then wouldnt tell anyone about the possibilites unless they signed up.
Complete Grubbyness. Thomas is just as bad the little girl.



lmao he really did that? Wow that takes the cake.

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