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#1448753 - 14/01/2018 14:40 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 805
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
For real...yeah its not ment to form til next week. No use predicting where its gonna go yet. And I remember yasi 2 weeks out was forecast to hit brissy as cat 5 too. Some fb weather group causes a scare publishing that model run...morons. at least in here we can talk and hope but no one is stupid enough to make end of thw world speeches
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Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Apr 2018]: 10mm (Ave 136mm)
Mar 2018: 679.9mm (avg 329.6mm)
YTD 2018 1787.3mm (Avg 1952.1mm)

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#1448764 - 14/01/2018 16:24 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4453
Loc: Brisbane
00Z GFS now has the system headed towards SE QLD.

EC has a similar synoptic set up to the GFS run at 10 days with the beginnings of the system starting to be seen around the Solomons.

Within the next couple of days we'll get to see how well EC begins to line up with GFS or not.
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1448771 - 14/01/2018 16:45 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Wrasse42 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2013
Posts: 318
Loc: Gladstone, Queensland
They will change with every run until a week out, one thing for sure is that it definitely looks like some CS action is finally on the cards, conditions are favourable with SSTís primed in the coral sea basin. Something to keep an eye on anyway. I do enjoy looking at the last few frames on extended model runs when they look like this, itís like weather porn. Lol.

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#1448772 - 14/01/2018 16:55 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
bundybear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/12/2010
Posts: 2230
Loc: Between Bundy and Gladstone
Oh no. I am going to die. A cyclone.
I wonder if I can buy a tanker of milk? Better buy an extra freezer for bread.

Ok. Silliness over.

I wish everyone up north a nice mild cyclone that will then be directed by the weather gods to head outback providing them all with the drink they need. It will then proceed in a track south exiting the country at about Adelaide. Hey, I did say 'wish'.

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#1448777 - 14/01/2018 17:30 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 805
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Lol i have said it before but that latest run is like the original Yasi setup....gfs had it going to seqld....we all k ow that changed. Ut who k ows it might hit seqld. At that strengrh I hope not. Brisbane would be wrecked.
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Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Apr 2018]: 10mm (Ave 136mm)
Mar 2018: 679.9mm (avg 329.6mm)
YTD 2018 1787.3mm (Avg 1952.1mm)

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#1448787 - 14/01/2018 18:34 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3334
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Something to watch at last.
Coast hugger all the way down to here please & then hang around just west of Fraser for a few days!


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (14/01/2018 18:35)

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#1448795 - 14/01/2018 19:17 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 805
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
We need it up here more then you guys down there. You guys dont have as much shortage of water. Its always flooding down there.
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Apr 2018]: 10mm (Ave 136mm)
Mar 2018: 679.9mm (avg 329.6mm)
YTD 2018 1787.3mm (Avg 1952.1mm)

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#1448800 - 14/01/2018 20:28 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3334
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Rainthisway, mate, hope it works out for you. Hope it crosses around Cairns & hugs the line

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#1448807 - 14/01/2018 21:57 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
drivenunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2010
Posts: 2063
Loc: Kewarra Beach, Cairns
I don't want it. If it does form and stay out in the CS - it will take all the rain with it. Hope it does not form...
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Bring on the rain!!!

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#1448808 - 14/01/2018 22:10 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: drivenunder]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5087
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Originally Posted By: drivenunder
I don't want it. If it does form and stay out in the CS - it will take all the rain with it. Hope it does not form...


But then if we have no lows and cyclones and just hot clear weather then the reef will get cooked yet again. Unfortunately(or fortunately depending on your point of view) cyclones are an integral and important part of the natural cycle up here. Like fires down south

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#1448809 - 14/01/2018 22:21 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23684
Loc: Townsville
Stuff the reef.

Its natural. If it cooks it cooks, we need rain.
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2015/16 Storms
13 Storms 2500km travelled

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#1448810 - 14/01/2018 22:31 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25272
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
We get a cyclone with flooding then they will whinge there is too much fresh water going onto the reef. There is always something.
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Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
March 2018 total - 296mm (194mm)
April 2018 total - 12.4mm (66mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 794.4mm (1107mm)

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#1448811 - 14/01/2018 23:02 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 805
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Interesting run the latest gfs. Has our low forming in the CS and another forming in the GoC....
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Apr 2018]: 10mm (Ave 136mm)
Mar 2018: 679.9mm (avg 329.6mm)
YTD 2018 1787.3mm (Avg 1952.1mm)

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#1448814 - 14/01/2018 23:43 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3334
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Looks like the wheels are finally turning.

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#1448815 - 15/01/2018 07:31 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23684
Loc: Townsville
Anything in the CS will go SE and anything in the Gulf will go west.

Will have to wait till Febuary now for a chance of rain.
_________________________
2015/16 Storms
13 Storms 2500km travelled

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#1448830 - 15/01/2018 09:45 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
ol mate Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/03/2010
Posts: 1140
Loc: Ingham, North Qld
you cant half tell we've been in cyclone/rain withdrawals - at the slight sign of anything we're jumping at it like a fat kid on cake!
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Ingham - Golden Gumboot holder of the Northern Region - cuz we steal Townsville's Rain!

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#1448835 - 15/01/2018 10:29 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3092
Loc: Buderim
Two runs in a row GFS sends it towards NZ. Current scenario would be a major event for surfers maybe with a large and moderately strong system in swell generating range of SEQ. GFS forecasts the hated ridge to weaken and so let it easily slide away SE. System still beyond EC 10 day, but end of EC 10 day has a stronger ridge which would give more hope to north Qld maybe?

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#1448836 - 15/01/2018 10:38 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 805
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Still long way out...i mean look at debbie even a day out was all over the joint. I am still hoping for something this wet but i mean we usually only get one landfall a year from the CS. So maybe this o e is not the crosser.
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Apr 2018]: 10mm (Ave 136mm)
Mar 2018: 679.9mm (avg 329.6mm)
YTD 2018 1787.3mm (Avg 1952.1mm)

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#1448843 - 15/01/2018 11:31 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
E-J Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/04/2006
Posts: 626
Loc: Innisfail (Mourilyan)
What I find weird is that GFS 500hPa modelling is not matching up with its surface modelling. I cannot see this eventuating. I think more of a shallow surface feature is likely so as not to be influenced by the uppers if a coastal impact is to happen. Rain likely for Mackay area for mind. But things change rapidly in the CS as we all know
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'Building a perpetual motion machine is easy - keeping the thing running is the hard bit"

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#1448846 - 15/01/2018 11:45 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5181
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Longer EC ensembles at the 10 to 15 day range show lower pressures in the Coral Sea, hanging around before deepening bu then starting to move off to the E / SE with an upper trough across E NSW pushing it away from the QLD coast. There have been runs with some good uppers but they seem to have gone over the last few days...which in turn result I suspect be the reason why models are now sending the feature off to the east. Worst case scenario for rain - a whole heap develops in the Coral Sea but then moves away from the coast. Still...long way off and still way enough time for models to flip back again.

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