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#1460009 - 01/04/2018 00:12 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18399
Loc: Burnett Heads
Last NAVGEM would empty supermarkets right down the central coast smile

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...018033106&fh=18
_________________________
"When it comes to the weather, "occasionally" is better than "not at all".

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#1460010 - 01/04/2018 00:26 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: nimbuss1]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 1836
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Originally Posted By: nimbuss1
50 bucks she's an NZ fizza!
I'll take that bet nimbuss1
West to Port Douglas/ Daintree, slowly south over two or three days down the coastline, then off to wander the CS for a week or two before eventually heading off to the grave yard.

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#1460011 - 01/04/2018 00:30 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: marakai]
ifishcq Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2018
Posts: 76
Loc: Rockhampton
Originally Posted By: marakai
Originally Posted By: nimbuss1
50 bucks she's an NZ fizza!
I'll take that bet nimbuss1
West to Port Douglas/ Daintree, slowly south over two or three days down the coastline, then off to wander the CS for a week or two before eventually heading off to the grave yard.


Iíll back a non result and heading to NZ

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#1460012 - 01/04/2018 00:34 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: ifishcq]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18399
Loc: Burnett Heads
Originally Posted By: ifishcq


Iíll back a non result and heading to NZ


That's a good result. Bring on Winter, we've had enough rain .
_________________________
"When it comes to the weather, "occasionally" is better than "not at all".

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#1460014 - 01/04/2018 00:55 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
White Squall Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 22/01/2011
Posts: 34
Loc: Sarina
Cat 1 crossing between St Lawrence and Shoal water bay on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.

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#1460015 - 01/04/2018 01:06 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: White Squall]
ifishcq Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2018
Posts: 76
Loc: Rockhampton
Originally Posted By: White Squall
Cat 1 crossing between St Lawrence and Shoal water bay on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.


Disagree, sub tropical low crossing near Cardwell

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#1460016 - 01/04/2018 01:11 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 1836
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Look's to be more westerly than NW movement on radar over the last few hours.

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#1460017 - 01/04/2018 01:32 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Wrasse42 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2013
Posts: 318
Loc: Gladstone, Queensland
Started to move south now by the looks

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#1460019 - 01/04/2018 05:21 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
WANDJINA G'vale Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/03/2006
Posts: 2359
Loc: Gordonvale - Qld
East of Cooktown - sure went north along way
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Wandjina - Cloud and rain spirits from Australian Aboriginal dreaming

Daisey Bates - The passing of the aborigines.

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#1460022 - 01/04/2018 06:56 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
snowmad Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/06/2005
Posts: 917
Loc: Bowen
Looking much healthier this morning and commenced southward motion. Gusts to 45knots on Flinders Reef.

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#1460023 - 01/04/2018 06:58 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Wrasse42]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12960
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Originally Posted By: Wrasse42
Started to move south now by the looks


Not according to the radar, although she has become slow moving (as forecast).
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Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1460024 - 01/04/2018 06:58 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
breezy04 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/01/2014
Posts: 457
Loc: whitsundays
Bom has upgraded the chance of reformation on Tuesday to moderate.
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#1460025 - 01/04/2018 07:01 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12960
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 5:08 am EST on Sunday 1 April 2018
for the period until midnight EST Tuesday 3 April 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
None.

Potential Cyclones:

At 5:00am EST Sunday, ex-tropical cyclone Iris was located near latitude 15.1 degrees south, longitude 149.5 degrees east, about 450 km east-northeast of Cairns. The low is currently moving northwest at about 5 km/h.

The system is likely to remain slow moving for much of today before adopting a more southwesterly track and moving closer to the tropical or central Queensland coast on Monday and Tuesday.

The system is expected to remain a subtropical low until Tuesday, when the system moves into a more favourable environment and the chance of further development increases to moderate.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Sunday:Very low
Monday:Low
Tuesday:Moderate
_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1460026 - 01/04/2018 07:02 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
snowmad Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/06/2005
Posts: 917
Loc: Bowen
Interesting this morning models runs all deepen the system to at least cat 1/2

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#1460034 - 01/04/2018 07:50 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5225
Loc: Diamond Valley
Yes, and the JTWC has become interested in its recent development as well:

Quote:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 17P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.1S 150.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.9S 149.6E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 311159Z AMSU-B 89GHZ IMAGE SHOW A FULLY EXPOSED, WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH LIMITED FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE PERIPHERY IN THE NORTH.
A 311200Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A BROAD SWATH OF 20 KT WINDS ENCIRCLING THE DISTURBANCE, AND PATCHES OF 25 KT WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, WITH LIMITED DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AND AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE TO THE SOUTH SUPPRESSING CONVECTION, AND MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-30 KNOTS). HOWEVER, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) ARE WARM. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY ASSESSED AS SUBTROPICAL DUE TO ITS EXPANSIVE BUT CONTRACTING WIND FIELD AND AN AMSU RADIAL CROSS-SECTION DEPICTING A COLD OVER WARM OVER COLD ANOMALY PATTERN. HOWEVER, THE TOTAL RECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT HAS BEEN INCREASING OVER RECENT HOURS IN THE CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE, WHICH COULD BE INDICATIVE OF INCREASING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. IN THE NEAR TERM, GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE REMNANTS OF 17P WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD. HOWEVER, AFTER SEVERAL DAYS, THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE; SOME DEPICT MODERATE DEVELOPMENT IN LATER TAUS, WHILE OTHER MODELS MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM AROUND 34 KTS OF WIND SPEED. ADDITIONALLY, A COMPLICATED STEERING ENVIRONMENT MAKES THE PREDICTED DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT UNCLEAR AFTER SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
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#1460035 - 01/04/2018 07:53 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Tempest Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2001
Posts: 3585
Very interesting IW, two days ago I thought it had no chance, heavy showers atm here in the nth beaches of Mackay, its going to be along week.

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#1460040 - 01/04/2018 08:28 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
ifishcq Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2018
Posts: 76
Loc: Rockhampton
It will miss qld though, just go around and disappear

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#1460042 - 01/04/2018 08:40 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
LonglifeMilk Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/01/2011
Posts: 200
Loc: Edmonton, Qld
Ummm - question.....BOM says will track south west....JTWC says south east?? Anybody know - is this a typo?

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#1460045 - 01/04/2018 09:21 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25272
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
for those who want rain, you want the system to remain weak, if it intensifies it will go SE and quickly. if it remains weak will remain slow moving.
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Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
March 2018 total - 296mm (194mm)
April 2018 total - 12.4mm (66mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 794.4mm (1107mm)

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#1460046 - 01/04/2018 09:34 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5225
Loc: Diamond Valley
Spot on analysis, Mick.
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The original donut hole

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