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#1436515 - 10/10/2017 09:30 QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4063
Loc: El Arish
Hot off the press.....

Outlook by region
The outlook indicates that a typical number of tropical cyclones is most likely in the Australian region and all sub-regions for 201718.
The Australian region has a 56% chance of having more tropical cyclones than average, meaning a 44% chance of having fewer tropical cyclones than average. Typically, around four tropical cyclones cross the Australian coast in a season. Outlook accuracy for the Australian region is high.
The Western region is likely to experience an average number of tropical cyclones this season, with the likelihood of more than average at 52%. The chance of fewer than average is 48%. Typically between about 15% and 40% of tropical cyclones in the Western region create coastal impacts. Outlook accuracy for the Western region is low.
The Northwestern sub-region has a 56% chance of more tropical cyclones than average and a 44% chance of fewer tropical cyclones than average. Typically, five cyclones form in or pass through this area each season. Around 40% of tropical cyclones, or their associated tropical lows, effect coastal areas of the Northwestern sub-region. Outlook accuracy for this region is moderate.
The Northern region outlook suggests an average number of tropical cyclones with a 53% chance of more tropical cyclones than average and a 47% chance of fewer tropical cyclones than average. In a typical year the Northern region experiences around three cyclones, and one or two tropical lows that later become cyclones after moving into the Western or Eastern regions. About three-quarters of the tropical cyclones in the Northern region impact coastal regions. Outlook accuracy for this region is very low.
The Eastern region outlook shows a near average season is most likely, with a 54% chance of more tropical cyclones than average and a 46% chance of fewer. About a quarter of tropical cyclones in the Eastern region make landfall. Outlook accuracy for this region is low.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/cyclones/australia/
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#1436622 - 11/10/2017 07:43 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Simmo FNQ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2012
Posts: 1406
Loc: Mareeba
Thanks for sharing ys.

Does anyone know how the accuracy for the Australian region is high when the accuracy for the 4 regions has 1 moderate, 2 lows and 1 very low.
Does it mean, we usually get the total number of cyclones right but have no idea where they will be.
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MTD: 95.0mm
YTD: 840.6mm

Mareeba
2016: 491.4mm
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#1438211 - 20/10/2017 14:44 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
DDstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 168
Loc: Tallai, QLD
Ok, not sure if this fits the rules or is welcome here. I only post occasionally in SEQ thread, but I have followed this guy for a few years and he just posted this, hope all you cyclone freaks and others like it and find it interesting.
Enjoy or let me know to bugga off with this kind of weather. DD
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fm6Y5mETVk4
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#1438260 - 20/10/2017 21:21 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
DDstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 168
Loc: Tallai, QLD
Well, my previous post has been up for 6+ hrs and had nearly a hundred views without comment.
Anyone feel there's any merit in Ben's stats?
Have I put this in the wrong thread??


Edited by DDstorm (20/10/2017 21:34)
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