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#1436515 - 10/10/2017 09:30 QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4076
Loc: El Arish
Hot off the press.....

Outlook by region
The outlook indicates that a typical number of tropical cyclones is most likely in the Australian region and all sub-regions for 2017Ė18.
The Australian region has a 56% chance of having more tropical cyclones than average, meaning a 44% chance of having fewer tropical cyclones than average. Typically, around four tropical cyclones cross the Australian coast in a season. Outlook accuracy for the Australian region is high.
The Western region is likely to experience an average number of tropical cyclones this season, with the likelihood of more than average at 52%. The chance of fewer than average is 48%. Typically between about 15% and 40% of tropical cyclones in the Western region create coastal impacts. Outlook accuracy for the Western region is low.
The Northwestern sub-region has a 56% chance of more tropical cyclones than average and a 44% chance of fewer tropical cyclones than average. Typically, five cyclones form in or pass through this area each season. Around 40% of tropical cyclones, or their associated tropical lows, effect coastal areas of the Northwestern sub-region. Outlook accuracy for this region is moderate.
The Northern region outlook suggests an average number of tropical cyclones with a 53% chance of more tropical cyclones than average and a 47% chance of fewer tropical cyclones than average. In a typical year the Northern region experiences around three cyclones, and one or two tropical lows that later become cyclones after moving into the Western or Eastern regions. About three-quarters of the tropical cyclones in the Northern region impact coastal regions. Outlook accuracy for this region is very low.
The Eastern region outlook shows a near average season is most likely, with a 54% chance of more tropical cyclones than average and a 46% chance of fewer. About a quarter of tropical cyclones in the Eastern region make landfall. Outlook accuracy for this region is low.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/cyclones/australia/
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#1436622 - 11/10/2017 07:43 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Simmo FNQ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2012
Posts: 1482
Loc: Mareeba
Thanks for sharing ys.

Does anyone know how the accuracy for the Australian region is high when the accuracy for the 4 regions has 1 moderate, 2 lows and 1 very low.
Does it mean, we usually get the total number of cyclones right but have no idea where they will be.
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YTD: 124mm
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#1438211 - 20/10/2017 14:44 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
DDstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 201
Loc: Tallai, QLD
Ok, not sure if this fits the rules or is welcome here. I only post occasionally in SEQ thread, but I have followed this guy for a few years and he just posted this, hope all you cyclone freaks and others like it and find it interesting.
Enjoy or let me know to bugga off with this kind of weather. DD
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fm6Y5mETVk4
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We don't just do odd jobs, we do jobs that are odd

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#1438260 - 20/10/2017 21:21 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
DDstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 201
Loc: Tallai, QLD
Well, my previous post has been up for 6+ hrs and had nearly a hundred views without comment.
Anyone feel there's any merit in Ben's stats?
Have I put this in the wrong thread??


Edited by DDstorm (20/10/2017 21:34)
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#1440844 - 08/11/2017 22:37 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: DDstorm]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 406
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Need to see some agreement with meteorologists and peer reviewed papers before I put any faith in the theory.

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#1441100 - 13/11/2017 18:32 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Nerd65 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 417
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Peer review is one thing but to have your theory peer reviewed it has to be published in a suitable journal. Getting anything published in such a journal is almost impossible for the layman. In these days of the Internet a better course of action is to put all your data and methods up on a website for the review of anyone.

Looking at the video, it had the flavour of "cherry picking". Plenty of nice imagery and examples where high levels of geomagnetic activity corresponded with intense tropical cyclone activity but how often was this not the case?

Of course anyone can assess the correlation between geomagnetic and tropical cyclone activity because the data is publicly available but this bloke is going public and making the claim so the onus is on him.


Edited by Nerd65 (13/11/2017 18:33)
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#1441146 - 14/11/2017 15:04 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 406
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
The paper linked "Evolution of extratropical cyclones during disturbed geomagnetic conditions" is affiliated with the Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Irkutsk, Russia. I would assume that is peer reviewed but it refers to extra-tropical cyclones but most of the systems the video refers to are not extra-tropical systems. The video even refers to a developing cyclone which blacked out South Australia but the the damage was done from at least two tornado's which were formed from a front and an intense low- pressure system.


Edited by Red Watch (14/11/2017 15:10)

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#1441147 - 14/11/2017 16:09 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1616
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
FWIW an intense low-pressure is still a Cyclone, all lows are smile

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#1441172 - 14/11/2017 19:56 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 406
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Yes the low was technically an extra-tropical cyclone but it was the tornados that done the damage to the infrastructure in South Australia.
"On Wednesday September 28, two tornadoes with wind speeds between 190 and 260 kilometres per hour tore through a single-circuit 275-kilovolts transmission line and a double-circuit 275kV transmission line, about 170km apart.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-28/wind-farm-settings-to-blame-for-sa-blackout-aemo-says/8389920
And this topic should not be in the Tropical Cyclone thread.


Edited by Red Watch (14/11/2017 20:16)

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#1441174 - 14/11/2017 20:15 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
DDstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 201
Loc: Tallai, QLD
Your right, sorry. Feel free moderators to relocate this to it's rightful forum area. Maybe this is more of a climate driver potential.
Definitely feel a little out of my league but appreciate the comments thus far.
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#1441175 - 14/11/2017 20:19 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 406
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Mabee the world forum is better as the video is about would weather events. And I don't disbelieve it but the paper linked to the video is about extra-tropical systems which are usually cold cored with a front and the video references mostly tropical systems which are warm cored


Edited by Red Watch (14/11/2017 20:31)

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#1441282 - 16/11/2017 01:00 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24942
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
ext gfs going for first tc of the season in 12 days time. highly unlikely so far out. but moves it SE away anyway.
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Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
December 2017 total - 40.0mm (130mm)
January 2018 total - 98.4mm (274mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 872.6mm (1122mm)

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#1441284 - 16/11/2017 07:40 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Mick10]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18148
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Originally Posted By: Mick10
ext gfs going for first tc of the season in 12 days time. highly unlikely so far out. but moves it SE away anyway.


It's been running that for 3 days now.
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#1443327 - 02/12/2017 15:29 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
wildopete Online   content
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 24
Loc: Forest Creek, Daintree FNQld, ...
Anything for that low out in the Coral Sea?

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#1443357 - 02/12/2017 17:56 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
darwindix Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 45
Loc: Jingili Darwin
Check out JTWC.Sorry I'm using a well used gen 1apple tablet and can't transpond the info over to the site .They do have an invest on it.

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#1443363 - 02/12/2017 18:31 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Brett Guy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 4972
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Weak low has formed in the Solomons but IF it develops it should head out towards New Cal(missus is on a cruise out there so she would have some fun smile ).Right out at the end of the GFS uns though looks interesting. Not showing anything of note but it does have a couple of very weak lows heading west. Could be a good bit of rain out of it

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#1445729 - 25/12/2017 13:46 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 533
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Hope we get a good blow north of us next month or in feb. Its needed in the Ville
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Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Jan 2018]: 149.9mm (Ave 465mm)
Dec 2017: 58.9mm (avg 205mm)
YTD 2018 65mmmm (Avg 1964.9mm)

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#1447262 - 04/01/2018 15:13 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 533
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Bom showing possible TL in coral seas next week.
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Jan 2018]: 149.9mm (Ave 465mm)
Dec 2017: 58.9mm (avg 205mm)
YTD 2018 65mmmm (Avg 1964.9mm)

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#1447370 - 05/01/2018 12:02 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 533
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Access has that little spinner on models again next weeekend. Long way off and lets see if it holds this time.
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Jan 2018]: 149.9mm (Ave 465mm)
Dec 2017: 58.9mm (avg 205mm)
YTD 2018 65mmmm (Avg 1964.9mm)

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#1447454 - 05/01/2018 18:29 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: rainthisway]
Hailin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 873
Loc: Moranbah/Glenella
Something to watch.....always exciting! Thanks for the info rainthisway smile

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#1447857 - 07/01/2018 16:49 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 533
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Gone now.
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Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Jan 2018]: 149.9mm (Ave 465mm)
Dec 2017: 58.9mm (avg 205mm)
YTD 2018 65mmmm (Avg 1964.9mm)

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#1447947 - 08/01/2018 10:48 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 533
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Nothing on the models for 2 weeks
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Jan 2018]: 149.9mm (Ave 465mm)
Dec 2017: 58.9mm (avg 205mm)
YTD 2018 65mmmm (Avg 1964.9mm)

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#1448360 - 11/01/2018 11:59 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4381
Loc: Brisbane
Finally, starting to see some action in the Coral Sea at the end of the most recent extended GFS runs.

Early days yet and will be interesting to see if it persists in coming days.
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1448449 - 12/01/2018 11:23 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5194
Loc: Diamond Valley
Well, there's the making of a significant system still towards the end of the latest 18Z run. Something to watch at least even if it is a long way out. Extended GFS has been on the money before with its long term prognostications, but we don't want another Yasi or Debbie.
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#1448480 - 12/01/2018 16:29 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5110
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Latest GFS run....@ 384 for sure so way out in FI, but consistent between a couple of runs. Both runs also showed uppers that look like they would pull it towards the coast:



Long way off so these runs are no more than a flag that we could see some Coral Sea action coming up...if we follow the usual patterns sure we'll see it drop the idea then bring it back on board again a few times over the next week. For me the uppers seem to offer a greater chance of a crossing (and perhaps even a crossing further south) than I've seen for some time...but also aware that even close to events steering in the Coral Sea is a nightmare for most events so actually laughing at myself for bringing this into the discussion @ this time out (but doing it anyway wink )

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#1448573 - 13/01/2018 12:33 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Stormwithin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/12/2016
Posts: 140
According to Facebook page Brisbane weather, it'll hit with Armageddon force 😂

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#1448576 - 13/01/2018 13:03 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3063
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
CS is cooking with SST's primed, loaded & waiting for something like that to make it go BANG!

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#1448619 - 13/01/2018 16:40 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 533
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Gfs has had something near the end of the month in the coral for a few days now so its likeing the outcome just not sure where it will go....
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Jan 2018]: 149.9mm (Ave 465mm)
Dec 2017: 58.9mm (avg 205mm)
YTD 2018 65mmmm (Avg 1964.9mm)

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#1448632 - 13/01/2018 17:54 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24942
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
more likely than not to probably move SE away and take any weather with from Qld. Prefer a widespread rain event but not likely by the looks
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
December 2017 total - 40.0mm (130mm)
January 2018 total - 98.4mm (274mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 872.6mm (1122mm)

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#1448640 - 13/01/2018 18:27 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 533
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Mike...not sure where you getting that from cos every run Ive seen pushes it sw towards the coast.
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Jan 2018]: 149.9mm (Ave 465mm)
Dec 2017: 58.9mm (avg 205mm)
YTD 2018 65mmmm (Avg 1964.9mm)

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#1448641 - 13/01/2018 18:41 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Brett Guy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 4972
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Mike is on the money. Firstly because that is the most common scenario. Secondly because with each new run of GFS the trend that is occurring is a trend towards the south and east of where it was the run before. But as others have said, there is zero point of paying attention to any details this far out. It is just worth noting that there is likely to be enhanced activity around that time

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#1448674 - 13/01/2018 21:17 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 533
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
I am feeling optimistic....not stupid. I know its too far out. But i can dream lol

Each run has the low track everywhere...the path is unreliable but so far the model is holding on to something spinning up deffo worth keeping my eye on. This may not be the rain bringer but its a opportunity to maybe bring some.


Edited by rainthisway (13/01/2018 21:22)
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Jan 2018]: 149.9mm (Ave 465mm)
Dec 2017: 58.9mm (avg 205mm)
YTD 2018 65mmmm (Avg 1964.9mm)

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#1448697 - 14/01/2018 07:21 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 533
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Latest run on weatherzone at least hasnt moved it further from the coast
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Jan 2018]: 149.9mm (Ave 465mm)
Dec 2017: 58.9mm (avg 205mm)
YTD 2018 65mmmm (Avg 1964.9mm)

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#1448699 - 14/01/2018 08:01 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: rainthisway]
Brett Guy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 4972
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Originally Posted By: rainthisway
I am feeling optimistic....not stupid. I know its too far out. But i can dream lol

Each run has the low track everywhere...the path is unreliable but so far the model is holding on to something spinning up deffo worth keeping my eye on. This may not be the rain bringer but its a opportunity to maybe bring some.


I am with you on the optimism. I dearly hope GFS is on the money but at this point I will take a big rain event. And I will lose my crap if a big system forms and takes the weather away with it.
Although having said what I just said I am not sure a 945 right into Cairns would be all that great. Even a 980 would trash Cairns


Edited by Brett Guy (14/01/2018 08:06)

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#1448710 - 14/01/2018 09:25 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 533
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Ideally for us down here a crossing near cardwell or ingham work work best.
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Jan 2018]: 149.9mm (Ave 465mm)
Dec 2017: 58.9mm (avg 205mm)
YTD 2018 65mmmm (Avg 1964.9mm)

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#1448717 - 14/01/2018 10:13 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4381
Loc: Brisbane
And the latest GFS run flip flops again in terms of likely track but steadfastly holds onto formation of a system.

There has been zero consistency on tracking for the past 8 runs on GFS but almost every run has seen the formation of a system in the Coral Sea.

This will get within the EC 10 day forecast window soon so it will be interesting to see what it has to say.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1448724 - 14/01/2018 11:30 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
ol mate Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/03/2010
Posts: 1053
Loc: Ingham, North Qld
Just wait until the media pick this up, all the Armageddon headlines will start!

Still a long way out, but GFS has been consistent with something popping up out there. I'll start paying attention when EC start showing it as well as GFS. From memory they did well during Debbie. Although my memory is rubbish I could be wrong there...
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Ingham - Golden Gumboot holder of the Northern Region - cuz we steal Townsville's Rain!

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#1448727 - 14/01/2018 11:45 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 533
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Ec and gfs have been pretty good of late but the track is bouncing everywhere. Last one I saw had a crossing near cairns. Next weekend should give us a clearer idea but I think its safe to say something will happen...but where...who knows. Bom has what looks like the beginnings of a low on there last model for 23rd. Which lines up with gfs. Havent checked ec yet, nothing on ec and latest gfs has Mikes scenerio happening but still I expect that to change just like its change every run.

Someone give the media a tip lol wind them up and watch them go.

If the media says its gonna be end of days it will be a flop, if they say little....watch out qld.


Edited by rainthisway (14/01/2018 11:50)
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Jan 2018]: 149.9mm (Ave 465mm)
Dec 2017: 58.9mm (avg 205mm)
YTD 2018 65mmmm (Avg 1964.9mm)

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#1448742 - 14/01/2018 13:36 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24942
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
media already onto, seen it on Mackay and Sunshine Coast paper fb sites already. just way too early to jump up and down, still remember the numpty from Ch9 weather plugging Yasi two weeks out, showing the world hitting Fraser island as a cat5. stupid.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
December 2017 total - 40.0mm (130mm)
January 2018 total - 98.4mm (274mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 872.6mm (1122mm)

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#1448747 - 14/01/2018 14:01 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Mick10]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6732
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Mick10
media already onto, seen it on Mackay and Sunshine Coast paper fb sites already. just way too early to jump up and down, still remember the numpty from Ch9 weather plugging Yasi two weeks out, showing the world hitting Fraser island as a cat5. stupid.


Was that Gary Youngberry?

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#1448753 - 14/01/2018 14:40 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 533
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
For real...yeah its not ment to form til next week. No use predicting where its gonna go yet. And I remember yasi 2 weeks out was forecast to hit brissy as cat 5 too. Some fb weather group causes a scare publishing that model run...morons. at least in here we can talk and hope but no one is stupid enough to make end of thw world speeches
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Jan 2018]: 149.9mm (Ave 465mm)
Dec 2017: 58.9mm (avg 205mm)
YTD 2018 65mmmm (Avg 1964.9mm)

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#1448764 - 14/01/2018 16:24 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4381
Loc: Brisbane
00Z GFS now has the system headed towards SE QLD.

EC has a similar synoptic set up to the GFS run at 10 days with the beginnings of the system starting to be seen around the Solomons.

Within the next couple of days we'll get to see how well EC begins to line up with GFS or not.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1448771 - 14/01/2018 16:45 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Wrasse42 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2013
Posts: 277
Loc: Gladstone, Queensland
They will change with every run until a week out, one thing for sure is that it definitely looks like some CS action is finally on the cards, conditions are favourable with SSTís primed in the coral sea basin. Something to keep an eye on anyway. I do enjoy looking at the last few frames on extended model runs when they look like this, itís like weather porn. Lol.

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#1448772 - 14/01/2018 16:55 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
bundybear Online   sleepy
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/12/2010
Posts: 2163
Loc: Between Bundy and Gladstone
Oh no. I am going to die. A cyclone.
I wonder if I can buy a tanker of milk? Better buy an extra freezer for bread.

Ok. Silliness over.

I wish everyone up north a nice mild cyclone that will then be directed by the weather gods to head outback providing them all with the drink they need. It will then proceed in a track south exiting the country at about Adelaide. Hey, I did say 'wish'.

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#1448777 - 14/01/2018 17:30 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 533
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Lol i have said it before but that latest run is like the original Yasi setup....gfs had it going to seqld....we all k ow that changed. Ut who k ows it might hit seqld. At that strengrh I hope not. Brisbane would be wrecked.
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Jan 2018]: 149.9mm (Ave 465mm)
Dec 2017: 58.9mm (avg 205mm)
YTD 2018 65mmmm (Avg 1964.9mm)

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#1448787 - 14/01/2018 18:34 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3063
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Something to watch at last.
Coast hugger all the way down to here please & then hang around just west of Fraser for a few days!


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (14/01/2018 18:35)

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#1448795 - 14/01/2018 19:17 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 533
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
We need it up here more then you guys down there. You guys dont have as much shortage of water. Its always flooding down there.
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Jan 2018]: 149.9mm (Ave 465mm)
Dec 2017: 58.9mm (avg 205mm)
YTD 2018 65mmmm (Avg 1964.9mm)

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#1448800 - 14/01/2018 20:28 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3063
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Rainthisway, mate, hope it works out for you. Hope it crosses around Cairns & hugs the line

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#1448807 - 14/01/2018 21:57 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
drivenunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2010
Posts: 2016
Loc: Kewarra Beach, Cairns
I don't want it. If it does form and stay out in the CS - it will take all the rain with it. Hope it does not form...
_________________________
Bring on the rain!!!

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#1448808 - 14/01/2018 22:10 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: drivenunder]
Brett Guy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 4972
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Originally Posted By: drivenunder
I don't want it. If it does form and stay out in the CS - it will take all the rain with it. Hope it does not form...


But then if we have no lows and cyclones and just hot clear weather then the reef will get cooked yet again. Unfortunately(or fortunately depending on your point of view) cyclones are an integral and important part of the natural cycle up here. Like fires down south

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#1448809 - 14/01/2018 22:21 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23568
Loc: Townsville
Stuff the reef.

Its natural. If it cooks it cooks, we need rain.
_________________________
2015/16 Storms
13 Storms 2500km travelled

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#1448810 - 14/01/2018 22:31 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24942
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
We get a cyclone with flooding then they will whinge there is too much fresh water going onto the reef. There is always something.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
December 2017 total - 40.0mm (130mm)
January 2018 total - 98.4mm (274mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 872.6mm (1122mm)

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#1448811 - 14/01/2018 23:02 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 533
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Interesting run the latest gfs. Has our low forming in the CS and another forming in the GoC....
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Jan 2018]: 149.9mm (Ave 465mm)
Dec 2017: 58.9mm (avg 205mm)
YTD 2018 65mmmm (Avg 1964.9mm)

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#1448814 - 14/01/2018 23:43 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3063
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Looks like the wheels are finally turning.

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#1448815 - 15/01/2018 07:31 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23568
Loc: Townsville
Anything in the CS will go SE and anything in the Gulf will go west.

Will have to wait till Febuary now for a chance of rain.
_________________________
2015/16 Storms
13 Storms 2500km travelled

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#1448830 - 15/01/2018 09:45 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
ol mate Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/03/2010
Posts: 1053
Loc: Ingham, North Qld
you cant half tell we've been in cyclone/rain withdrawals - at the slight sign of anything we're jumping at it like a fat kid on cake!
_________________________
Ingham - Golden Gumboot holder of the Northern Region - cuz we steal Townsville's Rain!

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#1448835 - 15/01/2018 10:29 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2856
Loc: Buderim
Two runs in a row GFS sends it towards NZ. Current scenario would be a major event for surfers maybe with a large and moderately strong system in swell generating range of SEQ. GFS forecasts the hated ridge to weaken and so let it easily slide away SE. System still beyond EC 10 day, but end of EC 10 day has a stronger ridge which would give more hope to north Qld maybe?

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#1448836 - 15/01/2018 10:38 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 533
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Still long way out...i mean look at debbie even a day out was all over the joint. I am still hoping for something this wet but i mean we usually only get one landfall a year from the CS. So maybe this o e is not the crosser.
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Jan 2018]: 149.9mm (Ave 465mm)
Dec 2017: 58.9mm (avg 205mm)
YTD 2018 65mmmm (Avg 1964.9mm)

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#1448843 - 15/01/2018 11:31 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
E-J Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/04/2006
Posts: 626
Loc: Innisfail (Mourilyan)
What I find weird is that GFS 500hPa modelling is not matching up with its surface modelling. I cannot see this eventuating. I think more of a shallow surface feature is likely so as not to be influenced by the uppers if a coastal impact is to happen. Rain likely for Mackay area for mind. But things change rapidly in the CS as we all know
_________________________
'Building a perpetual motion machine is easy - keeping the thing running is the hard bit"

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#1448846 - 15/01/2018 11:45 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5110
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Longer EC ensembles at the 10 to 15 day range show lower pressures in the Coral Sea, hanging around before deepening bu then starting to move off to the E / SE with an upper trough across E NSW pushing it away from the QLD coast. There have been runs with some good uppers but they seem to have gone over the last few days...which in turn result I suspect be the reason why models are now sending the feature off to the east. Worst case scenario for rain - a whole heap develops in the Coral Sea but then moves away from the coast. Still...long way off and still way enough time for models to flip back again.

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#1448862 - 15/01/2018 14:31 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6732
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
Anything in the CS will go SE and anything in the Gulf will go west.

Will have to wait till Febuary now for a chance of rain.


The absolute best case scenario for you guys would be for the Coral Sea to stay quiet (as the projected steering patterns simply aren't favorable for a westward moving TC yet), and for a low to spin up in the GoC instead. Extended model runs are trying to break the upper level ridge over Australia down which would mean (if it happened) anything in the gulf would more likely be slow moving, and any hint of trough development over the interior would even promote a E or SE movement. Stuff the Coral Sea for now, conditions out there currently strongly favor graveyard TCs (off to NZ) which take the monsoon away with it.

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#1448869 - 15/01/2018 15:56 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7794
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
anything in the Gulf will go west.


I hope your right Trav. Looking forward to another one.
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1448878 - 15/01/2018 16:39 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 533
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Models are throwing a low back at the coast. Must be a real confusing prediction happen. The track is seriously all over the joint.
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Jan 2018]: 149.9mm (Ave 465mm)
Dec 2017: 58.9mm (avg 205mm)
YTD 2018 65mmmm (Avg 1964.9mm)

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#1448879 - 15/01/2018 16:41 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
mysteriousbrad Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/10/2007
Posts: 1662
Loc: Rockhampton QLD
Cat4/5 into rocky... hah

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#1448881 - 15/01/2018 16:46 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4381
Loc: Brisbane
It's going be at least another 10 days before we get any accurate sort of idea where this system will go (if and when it does actually form).

Cyclogenesis is at about 10 days and how far East or West it forms will have a massive bearing on where it goes. You could put up a map of QLD and the Coral Sea and where a blindfold and have as much chance as extended GFS of picking out where it will end up.

Naming is interesting. If extended GFS is accurate Kelvin will form off Western Australia, Linda will be a short-lived cyclone in the GOC leaving us with Marcus for the system forming in the Coral Sea. Perhaps......
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1448890 - 15/01/2018 18:07 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 533
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
.


Edited by Raindammit (16/01/2018 08:24)
Edit Reason: inappropriate language
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Jan 2018]: 149.9mm (Ave 465mm)
Dec 2017: 58.9mm (avg 205mm)
YTD 2018 65mmmm (Avg 1964.9mm)

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#1448911 - 15/01/2018 21:16 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
gazza townsville Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/01/2012
Posts: 421
The wheels starting to turn. Been absolutely nothing at all to mention before now. So i decided to jump on here to see what my more learned westher watchers thought for the first time this season. So happy new year guys hope you have a grouse and safe one. However i do hope we cam get some action this year been a long time coming!!!

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#1448915 - 15/01/2018 21:56 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4381
Loc: Brisbane
And the 06Z has it scooting away to NZ. I would say a slight majority of runs over the past 2 days have favored a SE track towards NZ but wide spread at moment.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1448930 - 16/01/2018 04:34 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6732
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Mega
Stuff the Coral Sea for now, conditions out there currently strongly favor graveyard TCs (off to NZ) which take the monsoon away with it.


I retract this statement...It would be really silly of me to completely write off the Coral Sea. I do it every year and more often than not end up with egg on my face - not falling for it again. Anyway, GFS has favorable steering conditions for westward moving TCs but only for a few days towards the end of the run before troughing returns over the Tasman Sea. However, as usual, take it with a grain of salt that far out.

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#1448946 - 16/01/2018 08:32 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Locke]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 222
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Originally Posted By: Locke
And the 06Z has it scooting away to NZ. I would say a slight majority of runs over the past 2 days have favored a SE track towards NZ but wide spread at moment.


And now 12Z GFS back again to Qld coast crossing, early days yet though but will be interesting to watch.
Forecast MJO update for GFS (NCPE) going for strength in movement towards phase 5/6
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml
But EC not interested and tending towards weakening. It will be interesting to see how models converge in the week or two ahead.
_________________________
Models are for estimating and gauges are for knowledge.

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#1448963 - 16/01/2018 11:09 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
mysteriousbrad Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/10/2007
Posts: 1662
Loc: Rockhampton QLD
Well the bread and milk will be gone in the next hour in rocky... https://www.themorningbulletin.com.au/news/weather-groups-forecast-tropical-cyclone/3311346/

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#1448964 - 16/01/2018 11:20 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2856
Loc: Buderim
And 18z now has it barrelling towards SEQ from out east and then stalling just as it gets close enough to be interesting. And probably then shooting towards graveyard but thats beyond the forecast.

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#1448965 - 16/01/2018 11:41 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4381
Loc: Brisbane
I wouldn't mind seeing the upper level forecasts for the 240-384 hr timeframe for GFS to try and get a grasp on whats causing the spread on guidance.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1448967 - 16/01/2018 11:55 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Locke]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5110
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Originally Posted By: Locke
I wouldn't mind seeing the upper level forecasts for the 240-384 hr timeframe for GFS to try and get a grasp on whats causing the spread on guidance.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...18011518&fh=240 smile

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#1448973 - 16/01/2018 12:26 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2856
Loc: Buderim
I'm guessing that broader tropical patterns and MJO progress make cyclone development in coral sea highly likely in 10 days. However movement will depend on where the cyclone forms in relation to any subtropical/upper level ridges or troughs, and this far out it is impossible to accurately predict where these will be.

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#1448983 - 16/01/2018 13:44 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
gazza townsville Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/01/2012
Posts: 421
I absolutely find it amazing how i know we dont see rain all that often but how many times we see rain to the south like thismorning shifting to the north yet my washing stays dry..... townsville #bubble/dome

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#1448986 - 16/01/2018 14:12 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1067
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Yes gazza used to drive me nuts
_________________________
Wynnum SE Brisbane

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#1448987 - 16/01/2018 14:32 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 533
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Gotta love that article.."townsville residents urged to prepare" for what...why townsville...that low has jumped all over the joint...i will say one thing the beginnings of it forming have stayed on the 23rd jan. Theres about 3000km approx of coast that is in the cyclone risk zone, the chance of it hitting any giving place is negotiable at best, yes mackay north has a higher chance then most areas but still...the article shpuld urge people to prepare for the whole season as anywhere in that risk zone could cop it....
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Jan 2018]: 149.9mm (Ave 465mm)
Dec 2017: 58.9mm (avg 205mm)
YTD 2018 65mmmm (Avg 1964.9mm)

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#1448989 - 16/01/2018 14:55 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: rainthisway]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12675
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Originally Posted By: rainthisway
Gotta love that article.."townsville residents urged to prepare" for what...why townsville...that low has jumped all over the joint...i will say one thing the beginnings of it forming have stayed on the 23rd jan. Theres about 3000km approx of coast that is in the cyclone risk zone, the chance of it hitting any giving place is negotiable at best, yes mackay north has a higher chance then most areas but still...the article shpuld urge people to prepare for the whole season as anywhere in that risk zone could cop it....


I'd argue there's nothing wrong with telling people to prepare - the more preparation the better. The 'Townsville' reference simply stems from the fact that the article originally appeared in the Townsville Bulletin.
_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1448991 - 16/01/2018 15:40 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5194
Loc: Diamond Valley
This is from the latest Weekly Tropical Note:

Quote:
The MJO in this region would typically assist in invigorating a pre-existing monsoon trough over northwest Australia, however, the broadscale weather pattern in the region is currently not favourable for this to occur. This is primarily due to an out-of-season tropical low which is currently located off the north coast of Borneo. This low is drawing in the energy associated with a surge of winds from the South China Sea which might otherwise cross the equator and energise the monsoon trough in the Australian region.


And here's the culprit that's playing party pooper in inhibiting the monsoonal flow.




_________________________
The original donut hole

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#1449025 - 16/01/2018 22:25 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 533
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
So basically until that buggers off. The monsoon is not gonna happen. Has there been a year with no monsoon at all?
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Jan 2018]: 149.9mm (Ave 465mm)
Dec 2017: 58.9mm (avg 205mm)
YTD 2018 65mmmm (Avg 1964.9mm)

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#1449028 - 16/01/2018 22:33 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Stormwithin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/12/2016
Posts: 140
And then gfs cooks up a goc low and sends it west 😂😂

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#1449029 - 16/01/2018 22:45 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Mike Hauber]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 222
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
I'm guessing that broader tropical patterns and MJO progress make cyclone development in coral sea highly likely in 10 days. However movement will depend on where the cyclone forms in relation to any subtropical/upper level ridges or troughs, and this far out it is impossible to accurately predict where these will be.

Absolutely agree.. Something brewing in coral sea or gulf is quite a different forecast opinion for confidence perspective compared to confidence of where it will go, and different again for confidence in what it may bring to the "random" location of impacts.
One model only gives a limited "view" or speculation at best for such long lead time..
_________________________
Models are for estimating and gauges are for knowledge.

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#1449066 - 17/01/2018 09:38 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 533
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
A few other models have jumped on board, some less reliable but access has a low forming right near the coast on the 10th day
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Jan 2018]: 149.9mm (Ave 465mm)
Dec 2017: 58.9mm (avg 205mm)
YTD 2018 65mmmm (Avg 1964.9mm)

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#1449074 - 17/01/2018 10:09 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Mike Hauber]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2856
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
I'm guessing that broader tropical patterns and MJO progress make cyclone development in coral sea highly likely in 10 days.


Or at least a tropical depression. Current GFS has upper unsuitable for development in the coral sea so the low dies and instead the Gulf low develops and moves south.

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#1449202 - 18/01/2018 13:54 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 533
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Seems the low in the cs has been dropped completely now
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Jan 2018]: 149.9mm (Ave 465mm)
Dec 2017: 58.9mm (avg 205mm)
YTD 2018 65mmmm (Avg 1964.9mm)

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#1449211 - 18/01/2018 14:59 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 200
Loc: Golden Beach
Is the activity across Cape York, Gulf and NT the monsoon trough? If not it will do till it arrives as it looks very active up that way. Unusual to see activity up that way streaming down from due north, usually Nw or easterly feed. That area is desperate for rain some all, time record dry areas on maps posted on wz forums recently.

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#1449224 - 18/01/2018 17:09 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 533
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Now multiple models have a low forming. Gfs 8 day having a goc low give us rain followed by a coast hugger in the cs at the end of the 8 day.
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Jan 2018]: 149.9mm (Ave 465mm)
Dec 2017: 58.9mm (avg 205mm)
YTD 2018 65mmmm (Avg 1964.9mm)

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#1449234 - 18/01/2018 18:01 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5110
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
The biggest thing for me over the last week has been the complete inconsistency of the GFS model - sure it indicates something might form, but the complete about turns pretty much every run are poor form. Longer term (10-15 day) EC has been more consistent with a system forming in the Coral Sea but moving off to the east / south east.
Appreciate the problems models have forecasting movement before anything has formed, but even by GFS standards it's feeling pretty poor. Guess it's a case of waiting for something to spin up before the models settle down.

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#1449250 - 18/01/2018 20:42 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: KevD]
Hailin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 873
Loc: Moranbah/Glenella
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
IDD10610
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Thursday 18 January 2018
for the period until midnight CST Sunday 21 January 2018.
Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

There are no significant tropical lows in the region. The monsoon trough located over the northern Top End coast is becoming more active during the next few days. A tropical low may form within the trough and slowly develop. If a low does form it is likely to move towards the Kimberley Coast in WA over the weekend.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Friday:
Very Low.
Saturday:
Very Low.
Sunday:
Very Low.

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#1449256 - 18/01/2018 21:33 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 533
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Pfft....bloody wa is lucky this year
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Jan 2018]: 149.9mm (Ave 465mm)
Dec 2017: 58.9mm (avg 205mm)
YTD 2018 65mmmm (Avg 1964.9mm)

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#1449294 - 19/01/2018 09:36 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 533
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
God I hope we get that GoC low. That would bring good rain.
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Jan 2018]: 149.9mm (Ave 465mm)
Dec 2017: 58.9mm (avg 205mm)
YTD 2018 65mmmm (Avg 1964.9mm)

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#1449331 - 19/01/2018 14:35 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: rainthisway]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 406
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Originally Posted By: rainthisway
God I hope we get that GoC low. That would bring good rain.

And then moving inland and crossing Townsville as a deep low giving us more rain.

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#1449332 - 19/01/2018 14:38 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3063
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
And keep moving further south giving us some rain as well...

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#1449346 - 19/01/2018 15:56 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Brett Guy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 4972
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Obviously not going to amount to anything but the vis sat loop is showing some distinct rotation west of Cooktown. I guess this is what is leading to the far larger than forecast falls on the NTC

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#1449369 - 19/01/2018 19:26 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 533
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Id say so lol
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Jan 2018]: 149.9mm (Ave 465mm)
Dec 2017: 58.9mm (avg 205mm)
YTD 2018 65mmmm (Avg 1964.9mm)

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#1449460 - 20/01/2018 17:15 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: rainthisway]
Hailin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 873
Loc: Moranbah/Glenella
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
IDD10610
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Saturday 20 January 2018
for the period until midnight CST Tuesday 23 January 2018.
Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:
The monsoon trough extends northwest to southeast across the Top End. A weak Tropical Low, 1002 hPa, is located in the monsoon trough over the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria. The Low is expected to remain slow moving over the next day or two, before moving to the west early next week. If the Low remains over water there is only a low chance of it developing into a Tropical Cyclone in the southern Gulf of Carpentaria on Monday.
Although the movement of the Low is uncertain in the longer term, the risk of a Tropical Cyclone developing remains low on Tuesday.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Sunday:
Very Low.
Monday:
Low.
Tuesday:
Low

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#1449461 - 20/01/2018 17:16 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Brett Guy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 4972
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
The eddy that was west of cooktown has dissapeard now which seems to have lessened the amount of rain coming onto the coast but jeez things are starting to look lively in the southern gulf. really getting interested now to see where it consolidates

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#1449467 - 20/01/2018 17:51 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24942
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
BOM says likely to move west early in the new week, latest GFS pushes it into SE GOC coast, sadly a weak low/trough in the coral sea stops any decent convergence along the east coast from the lows inflow.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
December 2017 total - 40.0mm (130mm)
January 2018 total - 98.4mm (274mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 872.6mm (1122mm)

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#1449486 - 20/01/2018 21:21 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 533
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Why is there over 300 mm forecast for this week by gfs and about 200mm on bom watl.
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Jan 2018]: 149.9mm (Ave 465mm)
Dec 2017: 58.9mm (avg 205mm)
YTD 2018 65mmmm (Avg 1964.9mm)

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#1449487 - 20/01/2018 21:44 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Brett Guy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 4972
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
GFS is always pumped up on delusions of granduer

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#1449489 - 20/01/2018 22:12 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 2995
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
WATL is the average of all the major models, if one is going for say 300mm and others are showing less then the forecast accumulated totals will be less.

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#1449490 - 20/01/2018 22:34 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24942
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
all models forecast any coral sea low to move east, access and ec have a GOC low moving west, GFS only one moving it east.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
December 2017 total - 40.0mm (130mm)
January 2018 total - 98.4mm (274mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 872.6mm (1122mm)

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#1449496 - 20/01/2018 22:46 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 2995
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
The GOC one looks the go. As for the NQ coast may just be some convergence associated with the onshore flow feeding into the GOC and low pressure in the CS definitely something brewing..

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#1449510 - Yesterday at 07:56 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 533
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
BOM dont think anything substantial will happen until late jan early feb when the MJO is around.
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Jan 2018]: 149.9mm (Ave 465mm)
Dec 2017: 58.9mm (avg 205mm)
YTD 2018 65mmmm (Avg 1964.9mm)

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#1449512 - Yesterday at 07:58 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1702
Loc: Kingaroy
ACCESS is throwing up an interesting scenario towards the end of January with two lows in the Coral Sea and two lows in the Indian Ocean.

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#1449517 - Yesterday at 08:44 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Chris Stumer]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5194
Loc: Diamond Valley
Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
ACCESS is throwing up an interesting scenario towards the end of January with two lows in the Coral Sea and two lows in the Indian Ocean.


Yes, Chris, but the mid-level amplifying trough at the end of the run would have it being carted off fairly quickly to the SE:

_________________________
The original donut hole

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#1449538 - Yesterday at 11:04 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1702
Loc: Kingaroy
There is also a big blocking high to the south which should steer anything west.

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#1449555 - Yesterday at 14:10 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 2995
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Yea I just hope nothing breaks down that ridge. As that will take all the warm moist air with it to the graveyard.

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#1449570 - Yesterday at 15:49 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Chris Stumer]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6732
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
There is also a big blocking high to the south which should steer anything west.


Like IW said, above the blocking high is a large upper level trough, so anything embedded in it (unless it's extremely weak) will head SE. The trough itself can be steered west but only if the low level ridge under it gains more depth (look at 700mb-500mb for this).

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#1449576 - Yesterday at 17:09 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3063
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
AccessG still has lows hanging around but only just. It also has a serious looking thing in WA in a weeks time, maybe that can somehow come across & give us some rain at least?


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (Yesterday at 17:12)

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#1449584 - Yesterday at 18:04 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Brett Guy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 4972
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Would just like to remind everyone that 2018 is the 100th anniversiary of the year QLD got nailed by 2 cat 5's in a single year. Innisfail and Mackay. I don't think it had ever happened before and has never happened since. Just imagine the carnage goven the structural integrity of buildings back then.


Edited by Brett Guy (Yesterday at 18:05)

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#1449590 - Yesterday at 19:03 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
darwindix Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 45
Loc: Jingili Darwin
I was reading an interesting ABC article yesterday on the unnamed Mackay cyclone of 1918 and they said it was a cat 4.Albeit with a 3.5metre storm surge.Either way it did destroy the town

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#1449593 - Yesterday at 19:14 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Brett Guy]
scott12 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/11/2015
Posts: 822
Loc: maadi Tully area
Originally Posted By: Brett Guy
Would just like to remind everyone that 2018 is the 100th anniversiary of the year QLD got nailed by 2 cat 5's in a single year. Innisfail and Mackay. I don't think it had ever happened before and has never happened since. Just imagine the carnage goven the structural integrity of buildings back then.


Particularly devastating for Mission beach as it totally destroyed the new Tropical fruit plantations around Bingil Bay and the jetty and associated infractructure and actually took the "Mission" out of Mission Beach with the remaining aboriginal population transferred to Palm Island.....up to 7m storm surge evidence can still be seen as a pumice line in the foothills behind North Mision Beach...Innisfail was almost totally destroyed as well...reports of up to 100 people killed during that cyclone.....yep as Brett states there would not have been many buildings left standing...

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#1449594 - Yesterday at 19:25 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: darwindix]
Brett Guy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 4972
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Originally Posted By: darwindix
I was reading an interesting ABC article yesterday on the unnamed Mackay cyclone of 1918 and they said it was a cat 4.Albeit with a 3.5metre storm surge.Either way it did destroy the town


It's possible. I had always heard they were both fives but measurements back then would always be a little suspect.

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#1449596 - Yesterday at 20:26 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 200
Loc: Golden Beach
Fascinating information Scott12. Thanks for sharing. Where did you find this info?

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#1449597 - Yesterday at 20:29 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1502
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
interesting video below.Mackay cyclone of 1918

https://www.facebook.com/ABCRural/videos/10155043779216681/



Edited by Stormy3 (Yesterday at 20:31)
_________________________
https://www.facebook.com/groups/422596304525834/

http://supercell1.camstreams.com/ Ellalong live weathercam,from my front verandah.

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#1449622 - Today at 01:09 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 1753
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Notice how people back then just accepted life's challenges and got on with things, picked up the pieces, moved on and rebuilt? Now we have people who somehow think screaming at the sky in a pussy hat will make a difference to their lives.

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#1449647 - Today at 10:11 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3726
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
It's known that both the 1918 cyclones were at least category 4, from the pressure readings in the respective towns. It's quite likely that one or both were more intense than that, but there is no way of knowing for sure.

(Looking at this the other way, had, for example, Marcia happened with the 1950 observation network and population spread, it would have been assessed as a category 3 at most, more likely a 2, as its peak intensity was not captured by any surface observations, nor was there any significant population near its landfall point).

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#1449656 - 23 minutes 28 seconds ago Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
E-J Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/04/2006
Posts: 626
Loc: Innisfail (Mourilyan)
Similarly Cyclone Larry should have been classified a Category 3 system owing to land obs, but widespread structural damage simply does not backup the land obs. It was much stronger, however weakening on landfall. From the post evidence from Marcia, not even close to a Category 5, I think the BOM screwed that one up majorly.

Back on topic. Nothing will happen in the CS until 2nd week Feb IMO. WA and Gulf to fire with everything pushing west.
_________________________
'Building a perpetual motion machine is easy - keeping the thing running is the hard bit"

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#1449657 - 14 minutes 24 seconds ago Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
E-J Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/04/2006
Posts: 626
Loc: Innisfail (Mourilyan)
Similarly Cyclone Larry should have been classified a Category 3 system owing to land obs, but widespread structural damage simply does not backup the land obs. It was much stronger, however weakening on landfall. From the post evidence from Marcia, not even close to a Category 5, I think the BOM screwed that one up majorly.

Back on topic. Nothing will happen in the CS until 2nd week Feb IMO. WA and Gulf to fire with everything pushing west.
_________________________
'Building a perpetual motion machine is easy - keeping the thing running is the hard bit"

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