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#1436515 - 10/10/2017 09:30 QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4145
Loc: El Arish
Hot off the press.....

Outlook by region
The outlook indicates that a typical number of tropical cyclones is most likely in the Australian region and all sub-regions for 2017Ė18.
The Australian region has a 56% chance of having more tropical cyclones than average, meaning a 44% chance of having fewer tropical cyclones than average. Typically, around four tropical cyclones cross the Australian coast in a season. Outlook accuracy for the Australian region is high.
The Western region is likely to experience an average number of tropical cyclones this season, with the likelihood of more than average at 52%. The chance of fewer than average is 48%. Typically between about 15% and 40% of tropical cyclones in the Western region create coastal impacts. Outlook accuracy for the Western region is low.
The Northwestern sub-region has a 56% chance of more tropical cyclones than average and a 44% chance of fewer tropical cyclones than average. Typically, five cyclones form in or pass through this area each season. Around 40% of tropical cyclones, or their associated tropical lows, effect coastal areas of the Northwestern sub-region. Outlook accuracy for this region is moderate.
The Northern region outlook suggests an average number of tropical cyclones with a 53% chance of more tropical cyclones than average and a 47% chance of fewer tropical cyclones than average. In a typical year the Northern region experiences around three cyclones, and one or two tropical lows that later become cyclones after moving into the Western or Eastern regions. About three-quarters of the tropical cyclones in the Northern region impact coastal regions. Outlook accuracy for this region is very low.
The Eastern region outlook shows a near average season is most likely, with a 54% chance of more tropical cyclones than average and a 46% chance of fewer. About a quarter of tropical cyclones in the Eastern region make landfall. Outlook accuracy for this region is low.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/cyclones/australia/
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#1436622 - 11/10/2017 07:43 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Simmo FNQ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2012
Posts: 1710
Loc: Mareeba
Thanks for sharing ys.

Does anyone know how the accuracy for the Australian region is high when the accuracy for the 4 regions has 1 moderate, 2 lows and 1 very low.
Does it mean, we usually get the total number of cyclones right but have no idea where they will be.
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#1438211 - 20/10/2017 14:44 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
DDstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 286
Loc: Tallai, QLD
Ok, not sure if this fits the rules or is welcome here. I only post occasionally in SEQ thread, but I have followed this guy for a few years and he just posted this, hope all you cyclone freaks and others like it and find it interesting.
Enjoy or let me know to bugga off with this kind of weather. DD
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fm6Y5mETVk4
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#1438260 - 20/10/2017 21:21 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
DDstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 286
Loc: Tallai, QLD
Well, my previous post has been up for 6+ hrs and had nearly a hundred views without comment.
Anyone feel there's any merit in Ben's stats?
Have I put this in the wrong thread??


Edited by DDstorm (20/10/2017 21:34)
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#1440844 - 08/11/2017 22:37 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: DDstorm]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 443
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Need to see some agreement with meteorologists and peer reviewed papers before I put any faith in the theory.

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#1441100 - 13/11/2017 18:32 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Nerd65 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 432
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Peer review is one thing but to have your theory peer reviewed it has to be published in a suitable journal. Getting anything published in such a journal is almost impossible for the layman. In these days of the Internet a better course of action is to put all your data and methods up on a website for the review of anyone.

Looking at the video, it had the flavour of "cherry picking". Plenty of nice imagery and examples where high levels of geomagnetic activity corresponded with intense tropical cyclone activity but how often was this not the case?

Of course anyone can assess the correlation between geomagnetic and tropical cyclone activity because the data is publicly available but this bloke is going public and making the claim so the onus is on him.


Edited by Nerd65 (13/11/2017 18:33)
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#1441146 - 14/11/2017 15:04 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 443
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
The paper linked "Evolution of extratropical cyclones during disturbed geomagnetic conditions" is affiliated with the Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Irkutsk, Russia. I would assume that is peer reviewed but it refers to extra-tropical cyclones but most of the systems the video refers to are not extra-tropical systems. The video even refers to a developing cyclone which blacked out South Australia but the the damage was done from at least two tornado's which were formed from a front and an intense low- pressure system.


Edited by Red Watch (14/11/2017 15:10)

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#1441147 - 14/11/2017 16:09 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2616
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
FWIW an intense low-pressure is still a Cyclone, all lows are smile

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#1441172 - 14/11/2017 19:56 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 443
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Yes the low was technically an extra-tropical cyclone but it was the tornados that done the damage to the infrastructure in South Australia.
"On Wednesday September 28, two tornadoes with wind speeds between 190 and 260 kilometres per hour tore through a single-circuit 275-kilovolts transmission line and a double-circuit 275kV transmission line, about 170km apart.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-28/wind-farm-settings-to-blame-for-sa-blackout-aemo-says/8389920
And this topic should not be in the Tropical Cyclone thread.


Edited by Red Watch (14/11/2017 20:16)

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#1441174 - 14/11/2017 20:15 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
DDstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 286
Loc: Tallai, QLD
Your right, sorry. Feel free moderators to relocate this to it's rightful forum area. Maybe this is more of a climate driver potential.
Definitely feel a little out of my league but appreciate the comments thus far.
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#1441175 - 14/11/2017 20:19 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 443
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Mabee the world forum is better as the video is about would weather events. And I don't disbelieve it but the paper linked to the video is about extra-tropical systems which are usually cold cored with a front and the video references mostly tropical systems which are warm cored


Edited by Red Watch (14/11/2017 20:31)

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#1441282 - 16/11/2017 01:00 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25302
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
ext gfs going for first tc of the season in 12 days time. highly unlikely so far out. but moves it SE away anyway.
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#1441284 - 16/11/2017 07:40 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Mick10]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18549
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: Mick10
ext gfs going for first tc of the season in 12 days time. highly unlikely so far out. but moves it SE away anyway.


It's been running that for 3 days now.
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#1443327 - 02/12/2017 15:29 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
wildopete Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 25
Loc: Forest Creek, Daintree FNQld, ...
Anything for that low out in the Coral Sea?

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#1443357 - 02/12/2017 17:56 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
darwindix Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 72
Loc: Jingili Darwin
Check out JTWC.Sorry I'm using a well used gen 1apple tablet and can't transpond the info over to the site .They do have an invest on it.

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#1443363 - 02/12/2017 18:31 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5096
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Weak low has formed in the Solomons but IF it develops it should head out towards New Cal(missus is on a cruise out there so she would have some fun smile ).Right out at the end of the GFS uns though looks interesting. Not showing anything of note but it does have a couple of very weak lows heading west. Could be a good bit of rain out of it

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#1445729 - 25/12/2017 13:46 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Hope we get a good blow north of us next month or in feb. Its needed in the Ville
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#1447262 - 04/01/2018 15:13 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Bom showing possible TL in coral seas next week.
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#1447370 - 05/01/2018 12:02 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Access has that little spinner on models again next weeekend. Long way off and lets see if it holds this time.
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#1447454 - 05/01/2018 18:29 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: rainthisway]
Hailin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 938
Loc: Moranbah/Glenella
Something to watch.....always exciting! Thanks for the info rainthisway smile

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#1447857 - 07/01/2018 16:49 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Gone now.
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#1447947 - 08/01/2018 10:48 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Nothing on the models for 2 weeks
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#1448360 - 11/01/2018 11:59 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4481
Loc: Brisbane
Finally, starting to see some action in the Coral Sea at the end of the most recent extended GFS runs.

Early days yet and will be interesting to see if it persists in coming days.
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1448449 - 12/01/2018 11:23 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5237
Loc: Diamond Valley
Well, there's the making of a significant system still towards the end of the latest 18Z run. Something to watch at least even if it is a long way out. Extended GFS has been on the money before with its long term prognostications, but we don't want another Yasi or Debbie.
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#1448480 - 12/01/2018 16:29 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5197
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Latest GFS run....@ 384 for sure so way out in FI, but consistent between a couple of runs. Both runs also showed uppers that look like they would pull it towards the coast:



Long way off so these runs are no more than a flag that we could see some Coral Sea action coming up...if we follow the usual patterns sure we'll see it drop the idea then bring it back on board again a few times over the next week. For me the uppers seem to offer a greater chance of a crossing (and perhaps even a crossing further south) than I've seen for some time...but also aware that even close to events steering in the Coral Sea is a nightmare for most events so actually laughing at myself for bringing this into the discussion @ this time out (but doing it anyway wink )

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#1448573 - 13/01/2018 12:33 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Stormwithin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/12/2016
Posts: 151
According to Facebook page Brisbane weather, it'll hit with Armageddon force 😂

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#1448576 - 13/01/2018 13:03 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3524
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
CS is cooking with SST's primed, loaded & waiting for something like that to make it go BANG!

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#1448619 - 13/01/2018 16:40 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Gfs has had something near the end of the month in the coral for a few days now so its likeing the outcome just not sure where it will go....
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#1448632 - 13/01/2018 17:54 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25302
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
more likely than not to probably move SE away and take any weather with from Qld. Prefer a widespread rain event but not likely by the looks
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#1448640 - 13/01/2018 18:27 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Mike...not sure where you getting that from cos every run Ive seen pushes it sw towards the coast.
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#1448641 - 13/01/2018 18:41 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5096
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Mike is on the money. Firstly because that is the most common scenario. Secondly because with each new run of GFS the trend that is occurring is a trend towards the south and east of where it was the run before. But as others have said, there is zero point of paying attention to any details this far out. It is just worth noting that there is likely to be enhanced activity around that time

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#1448674 - 13/01/2018 21:17 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
I am feeling optimistic....not stupid. I know its too far out. But i can dream lol

Each run has the low track everywhere...the path is unreliable but so far the model is holding on to something spinning up deffo worth keeping my eye on. This may not be the rain bringer but its a opportunity to maybe bring some.


Edited by rainthisway (13/01/2018 21:22)
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#1448697 - 14/01/2018 07:21 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Latest run on weatherzone at least hasnt moved it further from the coast
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Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1448699 - 14/01/2018 08:01 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: rainthisway]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5096
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Originally Posted By: rainthisway
I am feeling optimistic....not stupid. I know its too far out. But i can dream lol

Each run has the low track everywhere...the path is unreliable but so far the model is holding on to something spinning up deffo worth keeping my eye on. This may not be the rain bringer but its a opportunity to maybe bring some.


I am with you on the optimism. I dearly hope GFS is on the money but at this point I will take a big rain event. And I will lose my crap if a big system forms and takes the weather away with it.
Although having said what I just said I am not sure a 945 right into Cairns would be all that great. Even a 980 would trash Cairns


Edited by Brett Guy (14/01/2018 08:06)

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#1448710 - 14/01/2018 09:25 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Ideally for us down here a crossing near cardwell or ingham work work best.
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Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1448717 - 14/01/2018 10:13 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4481
Loc: Brisbane
And the latest GFS run flip flops again in terms of likely track but steadfastly holds onto formation of a system.

There has been zero consistency on tracking for the past 8 runs on GFS but almost every run has seen the formation of a system in the Coral Sea.

This will get within the EC 10 day forecast window soon so it will be interesting to see what it has to say.
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1448724 - 14/01/2018 11:30 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
ol mate Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/03/2010
Posts: 1141
Loc: Ingham, North Qld
Just wait until the media pick this up, all the Armageddon headlines will start!

Still a long way out, but GFS has been consistent with something popping up out there. I'll start paying attention when EC start showing it as well as GFS. From memory they did well during Debbie. Although my memory is rubbish I could be wrong there...
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#1448727 - 14/01/2018 11:45 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Ec and gfs have been pretty good of late but the track is bouncing everywhere. Last one I saw had a crossing near cairns. Next weekend should give us a clearer idea but I think its safe to say something will happen...but where...who knows. Bom has what looks like the beginnings of a low on there last model for 23rd. Which lines up with gfs. Havent checked ec yet, nothing on ec and latest gfs has Mikes scenerio happening but still I expect that to change just like its change every run.

Someone give the media a tip lol wind them up and watch them go.

If the media says its gonna be end of days it will be a flop, if they say little....watch out qld.


Edited by rainthisway (14/01/2018 11:50)
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#1448742 - 14/01/2018 13:36 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25302
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
media already onto, seen it on Mackay and Sunshine Coast paper fb sites already. just way too early to jump up and down, still remember the numpty from Ch9 weather plugging Yasi two weeks out, showing the world hitting Fraser island as a cat5. stupid.
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June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
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#1448747 - 14/01/2018 14:01 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Mick10]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Mick10
media already onto, seen it on Mackay and Sunshine Coast paper fb sites already. just way too early to jump up and down, still remember the numpty from Ch9 weather plugging Yasi two weeks out, showing the world hitting Fraser island as a cat5. stupid.


Was that Gary Youngberry?

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#1448753 - 14/01/2018 14:40 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
For real...yeah its not ment to form til next week. No use predicting where its gonna go yet. And I remember yasi 2 weeks out was forecast to hit brissy as cat 5 too. Some fb weather group causes a scare publishing that model run...morons. at least in here we can talk and hope but no one is stupid enough to make end of thw world speeches
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#1448764 - 14/01/2018 16:24 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4481
Loc: Brisbane
00Z GFS now has the system headed towards SE QLD.

EC has a similar synoptic set up to the GFS run at 10 days with the beginnings of the system starting to be seen around the Solomons.

Within the next couple of days we'll get to see how well EC begins to line up with GFS or not.
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1448771 - 14/01/2018 16:45 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Wrasse42 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2013
Posts: 318
Loc: Gladstone, Queensland
They will change with every run until a week out, one thing for sure is that it definitely looks like some CS action is finally on the cards, conditions are favourable with SSTís primed in the coral sea basin. Something to keep an eye on anyway. I do enjoy looking at the last few frames on extended model runs when they look like this, itís like weather porn. Lol.

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#1448772 - 14/01/2018 16:55 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
bundybear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/12/2010
Posts: 2256
Loc: Between Bundy and Gladstone
Oh no. I am going to die. A cyclone.
I wonder if I can buy a tanker of milk? Better buy an extra freezer for bread.

Ok. Silliness over.

I wish everyone up north a nice mild cyclone that will then be directed by the weather gods to head outback providing them all with the drink they need. It will then proceed in a track south exiting the country at about Adelaide. Hey, I did say 'wish'.

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#1448777 - 14/01/2018 17:30 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Lol i have said it before but that latest run is like the original Yasi setup....gfs had it going to seqld....we all k ow that changed. Ut who k ows it might hit seqld. At that strengrh I hope not. Brisbane would be wrecked.
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#1448787 - 14/01/2018 18:34 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3524
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Something to watch at last.
Coast hugger all the way down to here please & then hang around just west of Fraser for a few days!


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (14/01/2018 18:35)

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#1448795 - 14/01/2018 19:17 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
We need it up here more then you guys down there. You guys dont have as much shortage of water. Its always flooding down there.
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Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1448800 - 14/01/2018 20:28 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3524
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Rainthisway, mate, hope it works out for you. Hope it crosses around Cairns & hugs the line

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#1448807 - 14/01/2018 21:57 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
drivenunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2010
Posts: 2070
Loc: Kewarra Beach, Cairns
I don't want it. If it does form and stay out in the CS - it will take all the rain with it. Hope it does not form...
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#1448808 - 14/01/2018 22:10 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: drivenunder]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5096
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Originally Posted By: drivenunder
I don't want it. If it does form and stay out in the CS - it will take all the rain with it. Hope it does not form...


But then if we have no lows and cyclones and just hot clear weather then the reef will get cooked yet again. Unfortunately(or fortunately depending on your point of view) cyclones are an integral and important part of the natural cycle up here. Like fires down south

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#1448809 - 14/01/2018 22:21 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23688
Loc: Townsville
Stuff the reef.

Its natural. If it cooks it cooks, we need rain.
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2015/16 Storms
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#1448810 - 14/01/2018 22:31 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25302
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
We get a cyclone with flooding then they will whinge there is too much fresh water going onto the reef. There is always something.
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Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

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#1448811 - 14/01/2018 23:02 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Interesting run the latest gfs. Has our low forming in the CS and another forming in the GoC....
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Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1448814 - 14/01/2018 23:43 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3524
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Looks like the wheels are finally turning.

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#1448815 - 15/01/2018 07:31 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23688
Loc: Townsville
Anything in the CS will go SE and anything in the Gulf will go west.

Will have to wait till Febuary now for a chance of rain.
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2015/16 Storms
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#1448830 - 15/01/2018 09:45 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
ol mate Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/03/2010
Posts: 1141
Loc: Ingham, North Qld
you cant half tell we've been in cyclone/rain withdrawals - at the slight sign of anything we're jumping at it like a fat kid on cake!
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#1448835 - 15/01/2018 10:29 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3305
Loc: Buderim
Two runs in a row GFS sends it towards NZ. Current scenario would be a major event for surfers maybe with a large and moderately strong system in swell generating range of SEQ. GFS forecasts the hated ridge to weaken and so let it easily slide away SE. System still beyond EC 10 day, but end of EC 10 day has a stronger ridge which would give more hope to north Qld maybe?

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#1448836 - 15/01/2018 10:38 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Still long way out...i mean look at debbie even a day out was all over the joint. I am still hoping for something this wet but i mean we usually only get one landfall a year from the CS. So maybe this o e is not the crosser.
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Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1448843 - 15/01/2018 11:31 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
E-J Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/04/2006
Posts: 626
Loc: Innisfail (Mourilyan)
What I find weird is that GFS 500hPa modelling is not matching up with its surface modelling. I cannot see this eventuating. I think more of a shallow surface feature is likely so as not to be influenced by the uppers if a coastal impact is to happen. Rain likely for Mackay area for mind. But things change rapidly in the CS as we all know
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#1448846 - 15/01/2018 11:45 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5197
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Longer EC ensembles at the 10 to 15 day range show lower pressures in the Coral Sea, hanging around before deepening bu then starting to move off to the E / SE with an upper trough across E NSW pushing it away from the QLD coast. There have been runs with some good uppers but they seem to have gone over the last few days...which in turn result I suspect be the reason why models are now sending the feature off to the east. Worst case scenario for rain - a whole heap develops in the Coral Sea but then moves away from the coast. Still...long way off and still way enough time for models to flip back again.

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#1448862 - 15/01/2018 14:31 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
Anything in the CS will go SE and anything in the Gulf will go west.

Will have to wait till Febuary now for a chance of rain.


The absolute best case scenario for you guys would be for the Coral Sea to stay quiet (as the projected steering patterns simply aren't favorable for a westward moving TC yet), and for a low to spin up in the GoC instead. Extended model runs are trying to break the upper level ridge over Australia down which would mean (if it happened) anything in the gulf would more likely be slow moving, and any hint of trough development over the interior would even promote a E or SE movement. Stuff the Coral Sea for now, conditions out there currently strongly favor graveyard TCs (off to NZ) which take the monsoon away with it.

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#1448869 - 15/01/2018 15:56 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
anything in the Gulf will go west.


I hope your right Trav. Looking forward to another one.
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#1448878 - 15/01/2018 16:39 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Models are throwing a low back at the coast. Must be a real confusing prediction happen. The track is seriously all over the joint.
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Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1448879 - 15/01/2018 16:41 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
mysteriousbrad Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/10/2007
Posts: 1760
Loc: Rockhampton QLD
Cat4/5 into rocky... hah

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#1448881 - 15/01/2018 16:46 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4481
Loc: Brisbane
It's going be at least another 10 days before we get any accurate sort of idea where this system will go (if and when it does actually form).

Cyclogenesis is at about 10 days and how far East or West it forms will have a massive bearing on where it goes. You could put up a map of QLD and the Coral Sea and where a blindfold and have as much chance as extended GFS of picking out where it will end up.

Naming is interesting. If extended GFS is accurate Kelvin will form off Western Australia, Linda will be a short-lived cyclone in the GOC leaving us with Marcus for the system forming in the Coral Sea. Perhaps......
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1448890 - 15/01/2018 18:07 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
.


Edited by Raindammit (16/01/2018 08:24)
Edit Reason: inappropriate language
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Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1448911 - 15/01/2018 21:16 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
gazza townsville Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/01/2012
Posts: 438
The wheels starting to turn. Been absolutely nothing at all to mention before now. So i decided to jump on here to see what my more learned westher watchers thought for the first time this season. So happy new year guys hope you have a grouse and safe one. However i do hope we cam get some action this year been a long time coming!!!

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#1448915 - 15/01/2018 21:56 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4481
Loc: Brisbane
And the 06Z has it scooting away to NZ. I would say a slight majority of runs over the past 2 days have favored a SE track towards NZ but wide spread at moment.
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1448930 - 16/01/2018 04:34 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Mega
Stuff the Coral Sea for now, conditions out there currently strongly favor graveyard TCs (off to NZ) which take the monsoon away with it.


I retract this statement...It would be really silly of me to completely write off the Coral Sea. I do it every year and more often than not end up with egg on my face - not falling for it again. Anyway, GFS has favorable steering conditions for westward moving TCs but only for a few days towards the end of the run before troughing returns over the Tasman Sea. However, as usual, take it with a grain of salt that far out.

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#1448946 - 16/01/2018 08:32 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Locke]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 526
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Originally Posted By: Locke
And the 06Z has it scooting away to NZ. I would say a slight majority of runs over the past 2 days have favored a SE track towards NZ but wide spread at moment.


And now 12Z GFS back again to Qld coast crossing, early days yet though but will be interesting to watch.
Forecast MJO update for GFS (NCPE) going for strength in movement towards phase 5/6
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml
But EC not interested and tending towards weakening. It will be interesting to see how models converge in the week or two ahead.
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#1448963 - 16/01/2018 11:09 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
mysteriousbrad Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/10/2007
Posts: 1760
Loc: Rockhampton QLD
Well the bread and milk will be gone in the next hour in rocky... https://www.themorningbulletin.com.au/news/weather-groups-forecast-tropical-cyclone/3311346/

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#1448964 - 16/01/2018 11:20 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3305
Loc: Buderim
And 18z now has it barrelling towards SEQ from out east and then stalling just as it gets close enough to be interesting. And probably then shooting towards graveyard but thats beyond the forecast.

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#1448965 - 16/01/2018 11:41 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4481
Loc: Brisbane
I wouldn't mind seeing the upper level forecasts for the 240-384 hr timeframe for GFS to try and get a grasp on whats causing the spread on guidance.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1448967 - 16/01/2018 11:55 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Locke]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5197
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Originally Posted By: Locke
I wouldn't mind seeing the upper level forecasts for the 240-384 hr timeframe for GFS to try and get a grasp on whats causing the spread on guidance.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...18011518&fh=240 smile

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#1448973 - 16/01/2018 12:26 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3305
Loc: Buderim
I'm guessing that broader tropical patterns and MJO progress make cyclone development in coral sea highly likely in 10 days. However movement will depend on where the cyclone forms in relation to any subtropical/upper level ridges or troughs, and this far out it is impossible to accurately predict where these will be.

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#1448983 - 16/01/2018 13:44 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
gazza townsville Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/01/2012
Posts: 438
I absolutely find it amazing how i know we dont see rain all that often but how many times we see rain to the south like thismorning shifting to the north yet my washing stays dry..... townsville #bubble/dome

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#1448986 - 16/01/2018 14:12 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1226
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Yes gazza used to drive me nuts
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#1448987 - 16/01/2018 14:32 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Gotta love that article.."townsville residents urged to prepare" for what...why townsville...that low has jumped all over the joint...i will say one thing the beginnings of it forming have stayed on the 23rd jan. Theres about 3000km approx of coast that is in the cyclone risk zone, the chance of it hitting any giving place is negotiable at best, yes mackay north has a higher chance then most areas but still...the article shpuld urge people to prepare for the whole season as anywhere in that risk zone could cop it....
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Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1448989 - 16/01/2018 14:55 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: rainthisway]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12989
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Originally Posted By: rainthisway
Gotta love that article.."townsville residents urged to prepare" for what...why townsville...that low has jumped all over the joint...i will say one thing the beginnings of it forming have stayed on the 23rd jan. Theres about 3000km approx of coast that is in the cyclone risk zone, the chance of it hitting any giving place is negotiable at best, yes mackay north has a higher chance then most areas but still...the article shpuld urge people to prepare for the whole season as anywhere in that risk zone could cop it....


I'd argue there's nothing wrong with telling people to prepare - the more preparation the better. The 'Townsville' reference simply stems from the fact that the article originally appeared in the Townsville Bulletin.
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#1448991 - 16/01/2018 15:40 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5237
Loc: Diamond Valley
This is from the latest Weekly Tropical Note:

Quote:
The MJO in this region would typically assist in invigorating a pre-existing monsoon trough over northwest Australia, however, the broadscale weather pattern in the region is currently not favourable for this to occur. This is primarily due to an out-of-season tropical low which is currently located off the north coast of Borneo. This low is drawing in the energy associated with a surge of winds from the South China Sea which might otherwise cross the equator and energise the monsoon trough in the Australian region.


And here's the culprit that's playing party pooper in inhibiting the monsoonal flow.




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#1449025 - 16/01/2018 22:25 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
So basically until that buggers off. The monsoon is not gonna happen. Has there been a year with no monsoon at all?
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Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1449028 - 16/01/2018 22:33 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Stormwithin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/12/2016
Posts: 151
And then gfs cooks up a goc low and sends it west 😂😂

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#1449029 - 16/01/2018 22:45 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Mike Hauber]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 526
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
I'm guessing that broader tropical patterns and MJO progress make cyclone development in coral sea highly likely in 10 days. However movement will depend on where the cyclone forms in relation to any subtropical/upper level ridges or troughs, and this far out it is impossible to accurately predict where these will be.

Absolutely agree.. Something brewing in coral sea or gulf is quite a different forecast opinion for confidence perspective compared to confidence of where it will go, and different again for confidence in what it may bring to the "random" location of impacts.
One model only gives a limited "view" or speculation at best for such long lead time..
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#1449066 - 17/01/2018 09:38 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
A few other models have jumped on board, some less reliable but access has a low forming right near the coast on the 10th day
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Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1449074 - 17/01/2018 10:09 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Mike Hauber]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3305
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
I'm guessing that broader tropical patterns and MJO progress make cyclone development in coral sea highly likely in 10 days.


Or at least a tropical depression. Current GFS has upper unsuitable for development in the coral sea so the low dies and instead the Gulf low develops and moves south.

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#1449202 - 18/01/2018 13:54 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Seems the low in the cs has been dropped completely now
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Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1449211 - 18/01/2018 14:59 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 305
Loc: Golden Beach
Is the activity across Cape York, Gulf and NT the monsoon trough? If not it will do till it arrives as it looks very active up that way. Unusual to see activity up that way streaming down from due north, usually Nw or easterly feed. That area is desperate for rain some all, time record dry areas on maps posted on wz forums recently.

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#1449224 - 18/01/2018 17:09 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Now multiple models have a low forming. Gfs 8 day having a goc low give us rain followed by a coast hugger in the cs at the end of the 8 day.
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Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1449234 - 18/01/2018 18:01 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5197
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
The biggest thing for me over the last week has been the complete inconsistency of the GFS model - sure it indicates something might form, but the complete about turns pretty much every run are poor form. Longer term (10-15 day) EC has been more consistent with a system forming in the Coral Sea but moving off to the east / south east.
Appreciate the problems models have forecasting movement before anything has formed, but even by GFS standards it's feeling pretty poor. Guess it's a case of waiting for something to spin up before the models settle down.

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#1449250 - 18/01/2018 20:42 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: KevD]
Hailin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 938
Loc: Moranbah/Glenella
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
IDD10610
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Thursday 18 January 2018
for the period until midnight CST Sunday 21 January 2018.
Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

There are no significant tropical lows in the region. The monsoon trough located over the northern Top End coast is becoming more active during the next few days. A tropical low may form within the trough and slowly develop. If a low does form it is likely to move towards the Kimberley Coast in WA over the weekend.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Friday:
Very Low.
Saturday:
Very Low.
Sunday:
Very Low.

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#1449256 - 18/01/2018 21:33 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Pfft....bloody wa is lucky this year
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Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1449294 - 19/01/2018 09:36 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
God I hope we get that GoC low. That would bring good rain.
_________________________
Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1449331 - 19/01/2018 14:35 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: rainthisway]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 443
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Originally Posted By: rainthisway
God I hope we get that GoC low. That would bring good rain.

And then moving inland and crossing Townsville as a deep low giving us more rain.

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#1449332 - 19/01/2018 14:38 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3524
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
And keep moving further south giving us some rain as well...

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#1449346 - 19/01/2018 15:56 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5096
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Obviously not going to amount to anything but the vis sat loop is showing some distinct rotation west of Cooktown. I guess this is what is leading to the far larger than forecast falls on the NTC

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#1449369 - 19/01/2018 19:26 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Id say so lol
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Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1449460 - 20/01/2018 17:15 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: rainthisway]
Hailin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 938
Loc: Moranbah/Glenella
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
IDD10610
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Saturday 20 January 2018
for the period until midnight CST Tuesday 23 January 2018.
Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:
The monsoon trough extends northwest to southeast across the Top End. A weak Tropical Low, 1002 hPa, is located in the monsoon trough over the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria. The Low is expected to remain slow moving over the next day or two, before moving to the west early next week. If the Low remains over water there is only a low chance of it developing into a Tropical Cyclone in the southern Gulf of Carpentaria on Monday.
Although the movement of the Low is uncertain in the longer term, the risk of a Tropical Cyclone developing remains low on Tuesday.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Sunday:
Very Low.
Monday:
Low.
Tuesday:
Low

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#1449461 - 20/01/2018 17:16 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5096
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
The eddy that was west of cooktown has dissapeard now which seems to have lessened the amount of rain coming onto the coast but jeez things are starting to look lively in the southern gulf. really getting interested now to see where it consolidates

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#1449467 - 20/01/2018 17:51 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25302
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
BOM says likely to move west early in the new week, latest GFS pushes it into SE GOC coast, sadly a weak low/trough in the coral sea stops any decent convergence along the east coast from the lows inflow.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

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#1449486 - 20/01/2018 21:21 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Why is there over 300 mm forecast for this week by gfs and about 200mm on bom watl.
_________________________
Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1449487 - 20/01/2018 21:44 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5096
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
GFS is always pumped up on delusions of granduer

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#1449489 - 20/01/2018 22:12 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3234
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
WATL is the average of all the major models, if one is going for say 300mm and others are showing less then the forecast accumulated totals will be less.

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#1449490 - 20/01/2018 22:34 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25302
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
all models forecast any coral sea low to move east, access and ec have a GOC low moving west, GFS only one moving it east.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

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#1449496 - 20/01/2018 22:46 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3234
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
The GOC one looks the go. As for the NQ coast may just be some convergence associated with the onshore flow feeding into the GOC and low pressure in the CS definitely something brewing..

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#1449510 - 21/01/2018 07:56 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
BOM dont think anything substantial will happen until late jan early feb when the MJO is around.
_________________________
Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1449512 - 21/01/2018 07:58 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1818
Loc: Kingaroy
ACCESS is throwing up an interesting scenario towards the end of January with two lows in the Coral Sea and two lows in the Indian Ocean.

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#1449517 - 21/01/2018 08:44 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Chris Stumer]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5237
Loc: Diamond Valley
Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
ACCESS is throwing up an interesting scenario towards the end of January with two lows in the Coral Sea and two lows in the Indian Ocean.


Yes, Chris, but the mid-level amplifying trough at the end of the run would have it being carted off fairly quickly to the SE:

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#1449538 - 21/01/2018 11:04 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1818
Loc: Kingaroy
There is also a big blocking high to the south which should steer anything west.

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#1449555 - 21/01/2018 14:10 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3234
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Yea I just hope nothing breaks down that ridge. As that will take all the warm moist air with it to the graveyard.

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#1449570 - 21/01/2018 15:49 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Chris Stumer]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
There is also a big blocking high to the south which should steer anything west.


Like IW said, above the blocking high is a large upper level trough, so anything embedded in it (unless it's extremely weak) will head SE. The trough itself can be steered west but only if the low level ridge under it gains more depth (look at 700mb-500mb for this).

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#1449576 - 21/01/2018 17:09 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3524
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
AccessG still has lows hanging around but only just. It also has a serious looking thing in WA in a weeks time, maybe that can somehow come across & give us some rain at least?


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (21/01/2018 17:12)

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#1449584 - 21/01/2018 18:04 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5096
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Would just like to remind everyone that 2018 is the 100th anniversiary of the year QLD got nailed by 2 cat 5's in a single year. Innisfail and Mackay. I don't think it had ever happened before and has never happened since. Just imagine the carnage goven the structural integrity of buildings back then.


Edited by Brett Guy (21/01/2018 18:05)

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#1449590 - 21/01/2018 19:03 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
darwindix Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 72
Loc: Jingili Darwin
I was reading an interesting ABC article yesterday on the unnamed Mackay cyclone of 1918 and they said it was a cat 4.Albeit with a 3.5metre storm surge.Either way it did destroy the town

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#1449593 - 21/01/2018 19:14 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Brett Guy]
scott12 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/11/2015
Posts: 1038
Loc: maadi Tully area
Originally Posted By: Brett Guy
Would just like to remind everyone that 2018 is the 100th anniversiary of the year QLD got nailed by 2 cat 5's in a single year. Innisfail and Mackay. I don't think it had ever happened before and has never happened since. Just imagine the carnage goven the structural integrity of buildings back then.


Particularly devastating for Mission beach as it totally destroyed the new Tropical fruit plantations around Bingil Bay and the jetty and associated infractructure and actually took the "Mission" out of Mission Beach with the remaining aboriginal population transferred to Palm Island.....up to 7m storm surge evidence can still be seen as a pumice line in the foothills behind North Mision Beach...Innisfail was almost totally destroyed as well...reports of up to 100 people killed during that cyclone.....yep as Brett states there would not have been many buildings left standing...

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#1449594 - 21/01/2018 19:25 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: darwindix]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5096
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Originally Posted By: darwindix
I was reading an interesting ABC article yesterday on the unnamed Mackay cyclone of 1918 and they said it was a cat 4.Albeit with a 3.5metre storm surge.Either way it did destroy the town


It's possible. I had always heard they were both fives but measurements back then would always be a little suspect.

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#1449596 - 21/01/2018 20:26 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 305
Loc: Golden Beach
Fascinating information Scott12. Thanks for sharing. Where did you find this info?

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#1449597 - 21/01/2018 20:29 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1774
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
interesting video below.Mackay cyclone of 1918

https://www.facebook.com/ABCRural/videos/10155043779216681/



Edited by Stormy3 (21/01/2018 20:31)
_________________________
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Click here for Ellalong weathercam,The camera is facing west towards the Wollombi,Putty area,the video live stream will be online longer, if any storms or severe weather.

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#1449622 - 22/01/2018 01:09 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 1898
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Notice how people back then just accepted life's challenges and got on with things, picked up the pieces, moved on and rebuilt? Now we have people who somehow think screaming at the sky in a pussy hat will make a difference to their lives.

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#1449647 - 22/01/2018 10:11 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3825
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
It's known that both the 1918 cyclones were at least category 4, from the pressure readings in the respective towns. It's quite likely that one or both were more intense than that, but there is no way of knowing for sure.

(Looking at this the other way, had, for example, Marcia happened with the 1950 observation network and population spread, it would have been assessed as a category 3 at most, more likely a 2, as its peak intensity was not captured by any surface observations, nor was there any significant population near its landfall point).

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#1449656 - 22/01/2018 11:19 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
E-J Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/04/2006
Posts: 626
Loc: Innisfail (Mourilyan)
Similarly Cyclone Larry should have been classified a Category 3 system owing to land obs, but widespread structural damage simply does not backup the land obs. It was much stronger, however weakening on landfall. From the post evidence from Marcia, not even close to a Category 5, I think the BOM screwed that one up majorly.

Back on topic. Nothing will happen in the CS until 2nd week Feb IMO. WA and Gulf to fire with everything pushing west.
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#1449657 - 22/01/2018 11:28 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
E-J Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/04/2006
Posts: 626
Loc: Innisfail (Mourilyan)
Similarly Cyclone Larry should have been classified a Category 3 system owing to land obs, but widespread structural damage simply does not backup the land obs. It was much stronger, however weakening on landfall. From the post evidence from Marcia, not even close to a Category 5, I think the BOM screwed that one up majorly.

Back on topic. Nothing will happen in the CS until 2nd week Feb IMO. WA and Gulf to fire with everything pushing west.
_________________________
'Building a perpetual motion machine is easy - keeping the thing running is the hard bit"

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#1449660 - 22/01/2018 11:47 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1818
Loc: Kingaroy
I wonder why everything is pushed west all the time in the Gulf and Western Australia?

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#1449661 - 22/01/2018 12:16 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Blis Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 13/01/2011
Posts: 22
Loc: Mt Sheridan

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#1449680 - 22/01/2018 14:43 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
*sigh* I dont think the BOM really knows whats gonna happen. One article it says no monsoon for townsville in next week then an article a day later says the opposite and that we will get monsoon rains. I guess its a case of wait and see.
_________________________
Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1449711 - 22/01/2018 18:08 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Gfs interested in a goc low going east around 29th.
_________________________
Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1449748 - 22/01/2018 21:28 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25302
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
if GFS is right and sends the GOC low east, it will be for little, GFS forms a southern coral sea trough or weak low and that stops and convergence on the SE side of the GOC low.
doesnt matter if GFS or EC is right on the current model runs, both screw NQ over in one way or another.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

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#1449751 - 22/01/2018 21:45 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Still who knows what will happen really. Everything is all over the place.
_________________________
Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1449753 - 22/01/2018 22:12 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 305
Loc: Golden Beach
I have been closely watching the forecasts for Weipa. They change massively from forecast to forecast. Must be a very difficult forecasting environment.

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#1449754 - 22/01/2018 22:22 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Mick10]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5096
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Originally Posted By: Mick10
if GFS is right and sends the GOC low east, it will be for little, GFS forms a southern coral sea trough or weak low and that stops and convergence on the SE side of the GOC low.
doesnt matter if GFS or EC is right on the current model runs, both screw NQ over in one way or another.


On the bright side there is so much disagreement and chopping and changing that we could easily see a completely different scenario to anything the models have shown us yet

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#1449784 - 23/01/2018 10:31 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
SBT Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2007
Posts: 14224
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
Its a model providing a simulation of what may occur, but probably won't. Almost 3 months into the season and nada on the east coast. Hopefully in Feb we will get a lovely little slow Cat 1 or 2 wandering down the coast to fill our dam in Townsville, but I'm not holding my breath.
_________________________
Oct 27mm
2018 Total 770mm






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#1449787 - 23/01/2018 11:12 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1226
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Townsville is the most unluckiest place on the planet when it comes to rain
I think its the only place in the world that can have a monsoon trough sitting right over it and still not get rain
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Wynnum SE Brisbane

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#1449789 - 23/01/2018 11:45 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: tsunami]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2498
Loc: Chillagoe
Originally Posted By: tsunami
Townsville is the most unluckiest place on the planet when it comes to rain
I think its the only place in the world that can have a monsoon trough sitting right over it and still not get rain


Apart from Chillagoe. And most storms will split around us.


Edited by cold@28 (23/01/2018 11:46)

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#1449835 - 23/01/2018 18:17 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: tsunami]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 526
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Originally Posted By: tsunami
Townsville is the most unluckiest place on the planet when it comes to rain
I think its the only place in the world that can have a monsoon trough sitting right over it and still not get rain

I lived in Townsville 1998 to 2000. It was quite wet👍
I acknowledge though it is the variability year to year decade to decade where Townsville has notable dry periods, including the now.

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#1449881 - 23/01/2018 21:46 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25302
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
yeah we accept we have dry periods here, you know that after a few wet ones, a few dry ones will follow. but this current period (5 years) is dragging on way too long now. getting to be ridiculous.


CS will throw up a few lows in the next week to ten days, everything will move SE, now doubt about it now.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

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#1449885 - 23/01/2018 22:05 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 526
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Sometimes I think the model outputs show too much colour and not enough human mind interpretation.
I still like the old style charts for 4 day MSLP and features. http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml
Seems quite complex with a lot of lows... Challenging for models and not surprising for volatility in predictions.

Agree the wettest time of year for NQ is not showing much. For further south, especially south of Fraser Island, statistical average wettest month, and actual wettest month year to year is a lot more vague

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#1449932 - 24/01/2018 10:05 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25302
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
first of those lows showing up on the willis island radar. models keep it weak for a day or two before strengthening as it moves eastwards.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

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#1449941 - 24/01/2018 11:53 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
The majority of lows move SE...its the norm...but we will get our rain. Maybe not above average as BOM forecast but it will happen.
_________________________
Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1449944 - 24/01/2018 11:59 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Mick10]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 443
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Originally Posted By: Mick10
first of those lows showing up on the willis island radar. models keep it weak for a day or two before strengthening as it moves eastwards.

EC has it combining with another weak low south of the Solomon Islands and then a large high over New Zealand moves east allowing it to head for the graveyard. By the looks of the structure of the low as it heads SE there must be high wind shear stopping it from developing too much, but New Zealand should get some wet windy weather from it.

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#1449948 - 24/01/2018 12:12 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4481
Loc: Brisbane
Bah.

GFS seems to have a "conga line" of TC's or lows heading towards NZ at least in the foreseeable future.

I guess plenty of wet and windy weather for FNQ whilst this goes on.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1449950 - 24/01/2018 12:19 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
3 of the models on weatherzone show a GoC low move east, 2 show it moving west, weatherzones synoptic shows it moving east too...looks like the models cant agree on anything. Must be so many variables lately that the models are virtually useless....more so then usual.
_________________________
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Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1449967 - 24/01/2018 14:14 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3524
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Just had a look at NZ Metservice Tropical Cyclone Outlook until 1200 UTC Saturday 27 Jan 2018.
A depression is expected to develop in the Coral Sea later this week. There is a low risk of this depression developing into a cyclone before Saturday. Increasing to a moderate risk on Saturday.
BOM has a very low risk until Friday, very interested in their new update this afternoon.

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#1449986 - 24/01/2018 16:06 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25302
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Wednesday 24 January 2018
for the period until midnight EST Saturday 27 January 2018.
Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
None.
Potential Cyclones:

A weak trough currently extends across the northwest Coral Sea. This trough is expected to deepen and become more active as a monsoon develops through the Coral Sea from Friday through the weekend.
A low may develop within the monsoon trough over the Coral Sea in the coming days, well offshore from the Queensland coast, with a moderate chance of cyclone development from Saturday as the monsoon strengthens. If a low or tropical cyclone did form, it would move east-southeast, away from the Queensland coast.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Thursday:Very low
Friday:Very low
Saturday:Moderate

Considering the decent rotation already evident on the Willis radar, surprised they are saying 'a low may develop'.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

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#1450002 - 24/01/2018 18:04 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Locke]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 443
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Originally Posted By: Locke
Bah.

GFS seems to have a "conga line" of TC's or lows heading towards NZ at least in the foreseeable future.

I guess plenty of wet and windy weather for FNQ whilst this goes on.

Yea far north as in north of Cairns, so Cooktown should see some wet wild weather if that low/cyclone that comes through the gulf and crosses the cape near Cooktown happens as GFS predicts.

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#1450003 - 24/01/2018 18:08 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Mick10]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 443
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Originally Posted By: Mick10
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Wednesday 24 January 2018
for the period until midnight EST Saturday 27 January 2018.
Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
None.
Potential Cyclones:

A weak trough currently extends across the northwest Coral Sea. This trough is expected to deepen and become more active as a monsoon develops through the Coral Sea from Friday through the weekend.
A low may develop within the monsoon trough over the Coral Sea in the coming days, well offshore from the Queensland coast, with a moderate chance of cyclone development from Saturday as the monsoon strengthens. If a low or tropical cyclone did form, it would move east-southeast, away from the Queensland coast.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Thursday:Very low
Friday:Very low
Saturday:Moderate

Considering the decent rotation already evident on the Willis radar, surprised they are saying 'a low may develop'.

The bureau has a 1004 low there on the "Analysis for 00:00 UTC on Wednesday 24 January 2018". GFS and EC has it at 1001 on www.windy.com


Edited by Red Watch (24/01/2018 18:10)

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#1450006 - 24/01/2018 18:29 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25302
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Can only just make out its rotation to the north of willis now, still spinning away but gee its moved quickly since this morning. get some good cloud around it on sat pic.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

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#1450016 - 24/01/2018 19:12 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5096
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
AccessG seems to have zero interest in the gulf low but GFS is still pretty determined to go with it. You would think this close they should be a little better aligned

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#1450018 - 24/01/2018 19:19 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Its been like that for weeks...no models align.
_________________________
Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1450026 - 24/01/2018 20:09 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: rainthisway]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4145
Loc: El Arish
That always makes me laugh, when you see the term "a low may develop"

Sometimes on their synoptic chart there will have been a low sitting there for 3 or more days.
_________________________
Why is it in the era of "Time saving" devices, that people are more "Time poor" than ever?

Humans think they are the fabric of society,when they are merely part of the thread.


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#1450088 - 25/01/2018 14:31 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
gazza townsville Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/01/2012
Posts: 438
Well typical Townsville Bulliten fashion scare mongering. You would have to assume that they have stake of some kind in coles and woolies ffs

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#1450102 - 25/01/2018 16:29 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25302
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Stupid article. Total joke.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

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#1450120 - 25/01/2018 18:15 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Mick10]
Hailin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 938
Loc: Moranbah/Glenella
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Thursday 25 January 2018
for the period until midnight EST Sunday 28 January 2018.
Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
None.
Potential Cyclones:
A weak low pressure system is currently located to the southeast of Papua New Guinea. Due to the developing monsoon across the northern Coral Sea, the low is forecast to intensify over the next few days.

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone, well offshore from the Queensland coast, with a moderate chance of development on Saturday and Sunday as the monsoon strengthens. If a tropical cyclone did form, it would move east to southeast, away from the Australian east coast.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Friday:Very low
Saturday:Moderate
Sunday:Moderate

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#1450121 - 25/01/2018 18:16 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Hailin]
Hailin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 938
Loc: Moranbah/Glenella
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:19 pm CST on Thursday 25 January 2018
for the period until midnight CST Sunday 28 January 2018.
Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:
The monsoon trough extends across the base of the Top End. A Tropical Low, 1000 hPa, is located over land in the monsoon trough approximately 180km southwest of Katherine. The Low is expected to slowly move westwards over the next few days. The low is expected to remain well inland.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Friday:Very Low.
Saturday:Very Low.
Sunday:Very Low.

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#1450134 - 25/01/2018 19:56 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
gazza townsville Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/01/2012
Posts: 438
Stupid article i agree but just went to coles. No bread no milk and thats pretty much all i went there for pain in the arse what happens over crap every single time.

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#1450147 - 25/01/2018 21:11 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25302
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
the Townsville Bulletin, supporting local grocers every wet season since 1881!
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

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#1450154 - 25/01/2018 21:32 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Weren't there times in the past where some of you guys sent in complaints about such articles? I guess they'll never learn.

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#1450180 - 26/01/2018 01:09 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25302
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
sure did, journos, editors come and go. esp regional papers.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

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#1450187 - 26/01/2018 08:10 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
pabloako Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 30/03/2007
Posts: 1647
Loc: Ocean View, Queensland
Hopefully it is time to wake up from my boring weather hibernation!

This satellite image timelapse, which updates every 30 minutes, gives a good idea of how things are potentially building up in our region.

http://www.oceanviewweather.com.au/Satellite/HimawariSatellite-Pacific.aspx
_________________________
Ocean View, QLD. (Alt. 412m)

GFS + Long Range - http://www.OceanViewWeather.com.au/GFS
Himawari Satellite Images - http://www.OceanViewWeather.com.au/Satellite

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#1450206 - 26/01/2018 11:15 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1863
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Every bit of moisture helps.
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#1450222 - 26/01/2018 13:11 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1212
Loc: Toowoomba
But don't all the models have everything roaring off to the SE or westward and leaving most of Eastern Australia bone dry?

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#1450284 - 26/01/2018 17:41 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12989
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Current GFS has a TC hitting FNQ near Cairns on Feb 10.
_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1450314 - 26/01/2018 19:19 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5096
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Originally Posted By: Raindammit
Current GFS has a TC hitting FNQ near Cairns on Feb 10.


Can't wait for the media to get a hold of that. grin

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#1450322 - 26/01/2018 19:59 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
There have fun with that lol
_________________________
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Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1450328 - 26/01/2018 20:30 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Brett Guy]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 219
Originally Posted By: Brett Guy
Originally Posted By: Raindammit
Current GFS has a TC hitting FNQ near Cairns on Feb 10.


Can't wait for the media to get a hold of that. grin


That'll be interesting to watch for sure.

I wonder if the Queensland Tourism Industry Council shall complain at that as well. lol

http://www.news.com.au/travel/australian...9965b0f25b05525


Edited by MangroveJack70 (26/01/2018 20:41)

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#1450358 - 26/01/2018 21:54 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Raindammit]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18549
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: Raindammit
Current GFS has a TC hitting FNQ near Cairns on Feb 10.


Gone. Another swimmer off to the graveyard on their update.
_________________________
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#1450449 - 27/01/2018 15:04 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
If we get a coast crosser I am betting its in march or april.
_________________________
Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1450549 - 28/01/2018 10:44 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 305
Loc: Golden Beach
Looks like some rotation on a line just north of weipa. What a waste!

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#1450580 - 28/01/2018 14:36 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Anyone seen the latest access....a low enters cs from CYP and just sits almost stationary for days intensifying. Thoughts?
_________________________
Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1450588 - 28/01/2018 15:53 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3524
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Probably hanging around waiting for that bastard upper trough to p.o. & then do a coast hugger all the way to Coolangatta!
I wish!


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (28/01/2018 15:53)

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#1450594 - 28/01/2018 16:11 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Haha. That would be awesome.
_________________________
Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1450635 - 28/01/2018 21:17 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: rainthisway]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 219
Originally Posted By: rainthisway
Anyone seen the latest access....a low enters cs from CYP and just sits almost stationary for days intensifying. Thoughts?


Think you'll find it was captured within the GFS modelling runs around Monday (22 Jan) - low enters cs from CYP.


Edited by MangroveJack70 (28/01/2018 21:34)

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#1450651 - 28/01/2018 23:03 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
And access has it slipping to the SE. I still say we will get a crosser in march maybe april.
_________________________
Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1450733 - 29/01/2018 15:53 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: rainthisway]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4145
Loc: El Arish
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Monday 29 January 2018
for the period until midnight EST Thursday 1 February 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
None.

Potential Cyclones:

There are no significant lows in the region and none are expected to develop today or during Tuesday. A strengthening monsoon flow will develop in the northwest Coral Sea from mid-week, leading to an increase in the risk of tropical cyclone potential later in the week. If a tropical cyclone was to form in the northwest Coral Sea, it would move east-southeast, away from the Queensland coast.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Tuesday:Very Low
Wednesday:Low
Thursday:Moderate


http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/forecasts/cyclone.shtml
_________________________
Why is it in the era of "Time saving" devices, that people are more "Time poor" than ever?

Humans think they are the fabric of society,when they are merely part of the thread.


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#1450775 - 29/01/2018 19:12 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
SnowedIn Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/02/2011
Posts: 235
Loc: Mudgeeraba, Gold Coast QLD
I'm heading to Cairns and Port Douglas from the 10-18 Feb. what are the chances of anything significant?
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#1450778 - 29/01/2018 19:30 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12989
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
At this stage, slim.
_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1450875 - 30/01/2018 13:14 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Squeako_88 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2005
Posts: 458
Loc: Elimbah 4516
This morning most models were indicating better steering flow more favourable for QLD in around 7-10 days time so hopefully by then there's a system out there taking advantage of this.
_________________________
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#1450896 - 30/01/2018 15:51 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Hello Hurricane Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/04/2012
Posts: 70
Loc: Rockhampton, Qld
Likelihood of a Tropical Cyclone for Friday - High.

Quote:
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Tuesday 30 January 2018
for the period until midnight EST Friday 2 February 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
None.

Potential Cyclones:
There are no significant lows currently in the region and none are expected to develop today or during Wednesday. Strengthening monsoon flow in the northwest Coral Sea will increase the chance of tropical cyclone development from Thursday, more likely along the monsoon trough.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Wednesday:Very Low
Thursday:Moderate
Friday:High

Conditions for tropical cyclone development, or a tropical cyclone to persist, remain favourable over the weekend, with the best chance along the monsoon trough in the northern Coral Sea.

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:less than 5%Low:5% to 20%
Moderate:20 to 50%High:Over 50%
The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea west of 160E.

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#1450901 - 30/01/2018 16:21 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25302
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
latest GFS moving the system east south east still, expect the other models to say the same tonight.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

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#1450903 - 30/01/2018 16:31 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
ol mate Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/03/2010
Posts: 1141
Loc: Ingham, North Qld
EC and Access briefly push it towards the coast then it scoots off to cyclone never-never
_________________________
Ingham - Golden Gumboot holder of the Northern Region - cuz we steal Townsville's Rain!

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#1450905 - 30/01/2018 16:59 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
We all know everything will be pushed SE.

Once conditions are favourable we will get nothing lol


Edited by rainthisway (30/01/2018 17:01)
_________________________
Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1450907 - 30/01/2018 17:12 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Squeako_88
This morning most models were indicating better steering flow more favourable for QLD in around 7-10 days time so hopefully by then there's a system out there taking advantage of this.
Gone, trough over the CS on every single day of GFS 14 day.

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#1450910 - 30/01/2018 17:36 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
gazza townsville Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/01/2012
Posts: 438
Media suggesting cyclone formation friday big front page looking spread. No molk at coles again

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#1450932 - 30/01/2018 19:55 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 443
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville

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#1450933 - 30/01/2018 20:00 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
bundybear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/12/2010
Posts: 2256
Loc: Between Bundy and Gladstone
Yep. Local woman spreading the "CYCLONE" to local pages. Not really sure she appreciated my comment about it not being expected to impact the east coast. Sort of took the drama away from her.

For goodness sake. It is the wet season, cyclone season, flood season, drought season. If they aren't prepared for weather they never will be.

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#1450950 - 30/01/2018 21:17 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Red Watch]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 219
Originally Posted By: Red Watch


Yeah, good luck with that. The words 'based on the best available data' or 'we don't want the detail' immediately come to mind. smile

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#1450969 - 30/01/2018 22:36 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 526
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
I often frown at what media says
But ultimately they run with a combination of what they are told and know
So does it mean they need to know more, or be told more?

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#1451010 - 31/01/2018 11:50 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23688
Loc: Townsville
Higgins has us on cyclone watch
_________________________
2015/16 Storms
13 Storms 2500km travelled

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#1451011 - 31/01/2018 11:56 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
Rawhide Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/09/2008
Posts: 873
Loc: North Point
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
Higgins has us on cyclone watch


Not any more.
_________________________
"I've been watchin birds more than insects recently, and the thing I've found with pigeons is: they've got wings but they walk a lot." - Karl Pilkington

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#1451012 - 31/01/2018 12:06 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3524
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Cyclone? What cyclone?

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#1451014 - 31/01/2018 12:11 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3305
Loc: Buderim
Watch the cyclone sail away towards the SE?

Maybe there will be a window when the current westerly burst finishes up in the Pacific. If the trade winds surge again then anything formed on the tail end of this MJO/westerly burst may be pushed towards the coast, at least in the lower levels. Not going to look at what the uppper's are forecast as I don't want to.

I did look a bit more into the Tasman Sea situation at charts for last 90 days etc, and to me it looks like there is a solid ridge through the middle and upper levels over the warm water. Much of the jetstream is pushed to the south around the blockage, but some of it is instead going around it to the north, hence higher shear and upper troughing through the coral sea.

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#1451019 - 31/01/2018 13:06 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23688
Loc: Townsville
Hes a absolute twat.
_________________________
2015/16 Storms
13 Storms 2500km travelled

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#1451020 - 31/01/2018 13:11 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12989
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
Higgins has us on cyclone watch


_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1451021 - 31/01/2018 13:47 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
JuzzyDee Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/01/2011
Posts: 57
Loc: Yeppoon, Qld
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
Higgins has us on cyclone watch


For the life of me I canít understand why the papers put so much weight into anything that Hollywood says. Whatís almost gag worthy is the people fawning over him in the comments. Anybody would think there isnít an organisation full of well educated, qualified individuals whose very job it is to know about the weather.

The headline was ďHiggins issues cyclone watchĒ. What in the wotime Le? Who is he to be issuing anything, let alone cyclone watch. Next heíll be telling his followers weather to use the emergency broadcast sirens before broadcasting updates.

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#1451036 - 31/01/2018 16:16 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
gazza townsville Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/01/2012
Posts: 438
I honestly believe the media grab anything anyone says and jam it on the front page putting people who havent been following (which is a lot) into a panic and smash the tin food water and milk i saw a pallet of water out the front of coles yesterday so coles are cashing in on peoples insecurities. The media would know damn well what is happening and im calling it. There had to be some kind of handshake agreement between the bully and perhaps others at higher levels im no conspiricy chaser but this happens way to often for it to be anything else i wrecken. Im happy to be wrong or proven wrong. However im a union member and delegate and i know and have sen these games played there is nothing really wrong with it but it sucks when i cant get milk and because they are pumping the water and levels are low ee drink bottled water. Lol i have written a book the main reason i even came here was to ask you guys if there was any way to open forum from the app or a different app instead of doing it through browser??? Have a nice day guys wishing in some rain and wind here in townsville. If not the wind just some desperately needed rain over the catchment would be great. Later Gaz

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#1451072 - 31/01/2018 21:11 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
ol mate Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/03/2010
Posts: 1141
Loc: Ingham, North Qld
Higgins. Lol. I questioned why they had us on cyclone watch when every model had any potential cyclone moving away. I was promptly blocked. And I wasn't even a smart ass about it! Then some of the idiots in high places in the media run his 'advice' as gospel because his 'advice' is the most headline-worthy. And even then they exaggerate his word.
_________________________
Ingham - Golden Gumboot holder of the Northern Region - cuz we steal Townsville's Rain!

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#1451076 - 31/01/2018 22:02 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: ol mate]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2498
Loc: Chillagoe
Originally Posted By: ol mate
Higgins. Lol. I questioned why they had us on cyclone watch when every model had any potential cyclone moving away. I was promptly blocked. And I wasn't even a smart ass about it! Then some of the idiots in high places in the media run his 'advice' as gospel because his 'advice' is the most headline-worthy. And even then they exaggerate his word.

I had never heard of Higgins before this conversation. Who is this character. Talk about arrogant, and of course misleading. From my brief look tonight he appears to be operating as a service, can the ACCC do anything?

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#1451079 - 31/01/2018 22:29 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Higgins in a moron.
_________________________
Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1451086 - 31/01/2018 23:05 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: MangroveJack70]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7581
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: MangroveJack70
Originally Posted By: Red Watch


Yeah, good luck with that. The words 'based on the best available data' or 'we don't want the detail' immediately come to mind. smile

Well that's just it -- issue proper warnings, or don't issue them at all I'd think...!


Edited by Seira (31/01/2018 23:07)

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#1451091 - 31/01/2018 23:53 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25302
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
he is the most over hyped person i have seen on line. some of his forecasts (claims more like it) are a joke. imo, a stain on the weather community. has no responsibility at all and sadly is followed by well over half a million people on facebook. this latest stunt just proves he has no morals, and is happy to put up a dodgy headline in the hope of more clicks.
sadly, the media fell for it and roped the BOM into, and when things dont got to plan, people then blame the BOM.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

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#1451093 - 01/02/2018 00:00 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
ol mate Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/03/2010
Posts: 1141
Loc: Ingham, North Qld
It'd be good if the media questioned his forcast instead of publishing him
And giving him more exposure. Slightly off topic - a few years back he predicted super rains or some similar description over the Xmas/new year period. He and his Facebook page ended up being quoted online and on the tv. The local caravan park was booked solid but lost 30% of the bookings because of all of the hype. In the end we got sunshowers and overcast days, and very little in the way of rain. I remember looking at the models and thinking where on earth is this bloke getting his info from!

Ok I'll shut up now smile no more mention of the 'H' word.
_________________________
Ingham - Golden Gumboot holder of the Northern Region - cuz we steal Townsville's Rain!

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#1451101 - 01/02/2018 07:14 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3524
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Its all the stupid media's fault. He is a snake oil merchant sucking money from the gullible and stupid. Dont think there is a law against stupid people buying snake oil?

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#1451145 - 01/02/2018 14:04 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
pabloako Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 30/03/2007
Posts: 1647
Loc: Ocean View, Queensland
Clever bloke really. He comes out with dribble like this, it gets jumped on by the sensationalists and he sells more mobile apps and gets more add revenue. Clever.
_________________________
Ocean View, QLD. (Alt. 412m)

GFS + Long Range - http://www.OceanViewWeather.com.au/GFS
Himawari Satellite Images - http://www.OceanViewWeather.com.au/Satellite

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#1451153 - 01/02/2018 15:05 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
gazza townsville Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/01/2012
Posts: 438
So all the models still in agreement on moving away to the graveyard im up the hospital with my missus and have very limited internet access.
One would hope a southern high pops up and drives it to the coast. Very wishful thinking i assume but one can only hope at least that the patterns change from now onward and give us a chance of a blow and if not that some rain to fill that dam im sick of buying bottles water.

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#1451177 - 01/02/2018 17:34 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: gazza townsville]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18549
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: gazza townsville
So all the models still in agreement on moving away to the graveyard .


Not much chance of any change in the next 10 days if the majors are right. Ridging right up the east coast throughout.

_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1451178 - 01/02/2018 17:34 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18549
Loc: The Beach.
On the issue of "that" social media outlet posting up sensationalism, the federal government should legislate to stop ALL social media sites from charging subscription for weather content UNLESS the person providing the information is a qualified meteorologist.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1451218 - 01/02/2018 21:57 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2340
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
On the issue of "that" social media outlet posting up sensationalism, the federal government should legislate to stop ALL social media sites from charging subscription for weather content UNLESS the person providing the information is a qualified meteorologist.


Yes, just what we need, more regulation.

How about educating people to be more intelligent in the first place. I guess the last thing many people would want is an intelligent population, over an over educated but immature population.

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#1451221 - 01/02/2018 22:03 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: RC]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18549
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: RC
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
On the issue of "that" social media outlet posting up sensationalism, the federal government should legislate to stop ALL social media sites from charging subscription for weather content UNLESS the person providing the information is a qualified meteorologist.


Yes, just what we need, more regulation.

How about educating people to be more intelligent in the first place. I guess the last thing many people would want is an intelligent population, over an over educated but immature population.


laugh

When media outlets are quoting some fb clown with profit as his primary agenda ABOVE education then yes, more regulation is definitely needed.

P.S it's always that mob you heap praise on that make massive cuts to education. Funny stuff.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1451233 - 01/02/2018 23:20 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: ColdFront]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 526
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Originally Posted By: RC
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
On the issue of "that" social media outlet posting up sensationalism, the federal government should legislate to stop ALL social media sites from charging subscription for weather content UNLESS the person providing the information is a qualified meteorologist.


Yes, just what we need, more regulation.

How about educating people to be more intelligent in the first place. I guess the last thing many people would want is an intelligent population, over an over educated but immature population.


laugh

When media outlets are quoting some fb clown with profit as his primary agenda ABOVE education then yes, more regulation is definitely needed.

P.S it's always that mob you heap praise on that make massive cuts to education. Funny stuff.


I read both the above, agree in principle, but pragmatically say no way it will happen. My suggestion is that bring in laws that when they get it wrong they must publish apology and correction. Would sharpen the judgement of the amateurs, those exploiting publicity, and also the professional agencies.
_________________________
Models are for estimating and gauges are for knowledge.

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#1451235 - 01/02/2018 23:23 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 526
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
I am waiting for said sensationalist to provide correction and apology. But since I don't use Facebook Twitter and the like I guess I won't know about it if it happens

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#1451252 - 02/02/2018 01:26 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Flowin]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25302
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Originally Posted By: Flowin
I am waiting for said sensationalist to provide correction and apology.

the self assessed "Cyclone Watch" was self "cancelled" the following day, based on model data that showed the system would not proceed westwards. Failing to indicate that all models showed a general eastwards movement anyway, after a very slight west wobble.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

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#1451271 - 02/02/2018 10:19 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2340
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Originally Posted By: ColdFront

When media outlets are quoting some fb clown with profit as his primary agenda ABOVE education then yes, more regulation is definitely needed.




No, just no.

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#1451273 - 02/02/2018 10:22 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
FineElsewhere Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/02/2009
Posts: 13
Loc: Coorooman c.q.coast
As a long term outsider at weatherzone forums , I find it a little disappointing that this thread has degenerated into a 'crucifixation' (probably deserved) rather than genuine discussion on lows/cyclones in the coral sea.
Example - Rapidly rising MJO
- BOM has a moderate chance of tc forming on Sunday
- JTWC has an interest in a low possibly forming soon...

Yes I know the models show any tc going to the 'graveyard' but it wouldn't be the first time a model was wrong.
Not trying to be over critical - It's just that this forum used to be a goldmine of information and links to what is actually happening saving morons like me trying to find it online.
Thanks for you time

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#1451281 - 02/02/2018 11:34 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: RC]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5096
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Originally Posted By: RC
Originally Posted By: ColdFront

When media outlets are quoting some fb clown with profit as his primary agenda ABOVE education then yes, more regulation is definitely needed.




No, just no.


The heavier regulation should be on the professional media really. If a news station is not capable of doing VERY basic research and finding out its own facts it should pay a heafty price.

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#1451284 - 02/02/2018 11:57 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
bbowen Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/03/2011
Posts: 144
Oi Folks Fine Elsewhere has already mentioned this isn't the place for your political/journalistic integrity discussion. By all means start a new thread and I'm sure everyone will enjoy it, but not here in this thread.
in fact I just created on.

http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthrea...dia#Post1451286


Edited by bbowen (02/02/2018 12:05)

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#1451315 - 02/02/2018 16:43 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: FineElsewhere]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 219
Originally Posted By: FineElsewhere
As a long term outsider at weatherzone forums , I find it a little disappointing that this thread has degenerated into a 'crucifixation' (probably deserved) rather than genuine discussion on lows/cyclones in the coral sea.
Example - Rapidly rising MJO
- BOM has a moderate chance of tc forming on Sunday
- JTWC has an interest in a low possibly forming soon...

Yes I know the models show any tc going to the 'graveyard' but it wouldn't be the first time a model was wrong.
Not trying to be over critical - It's just that this forum used to be a goldmine of information and links to what is actually happening saving morons like me trying to find it online.
Thanks for you time


Well said. Invest 96P has been on the radar for the last couple of days, and 97P today (new). The Low Pressure Systems which have come from the Gulf has been interesting to watch, given that we've had some good rainfall in Far North Queensland and the remaining of Northern Australia over the past 2 weeks.

In the meantime, TC Cebile has resulted in some great imagery being provided online. Cairns in particular, has seen a considerable shift in DTD temps at the 3pm, 6pm and 9pm timeframes.


Edited by MangroveJack70 (02/02/2018 16:43)

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#1451317 - 02/02/2018 16:44 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Brett Guy]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 219
Originally Posted By: Brett Guy
Originally Posted By: RC
Originally Posted By: ColdFront

When media outlets are quoting some fb clown with profit as his primary agenda ABOVE education then yes, more regulation is definitely needed.




No, just no.


The heavier regulation should be on the professional media really. If a news station is not capable of doing VERY basic research and finding out its own facts it should pay a heafty price.


Spot on.

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#1451325 - 02/02/2018 17:47 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25302
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
as FEW mentioned, lets get it back on track. Was happy to let the conversation slide for a bit as technically it was about cyclone development and its discussion in the media, sadly some had to go and bring up politics.

Anyway, latest outlook below. The coral sea is not getting a chance so far this season.

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:31 pm EST on Friday 2 February 2018
for the period until midnight EST Monday 5 February 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
None.

Potential Cyclones:

The monsoon trough extends across the northern Coral Sea, and a series of weak and transient lows have been observed along its length in the previous few days.

Atmospheric conditions are becoming less favourable for tropical cyclone development, and the probability of a tropical cyclone developing during the next few days is now considered to be very low.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Saturday:Very Low
Sunday:Very Low
Monday:Very Low
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

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#1451447 - 03/02/2018 19:19 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3305
Loc: Buderim
I speculated a while back that the back end of the current WWB may provide opportunity for a cyclone heading towards the coast. Ironically there is one forecast to move SW at the end of the GFS run, but starting from so far out it still hits NZ.

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#1451478 - 04/02/2018 00:25 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18549
Loc: The Beach.
I'm surprised that no-one has made mention of Yasi's 7th anniversary of crossing the coast (Feb 3rd 2011).
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1451484 - 04/02/2018 04:53 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Classic Coral Sea:


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#1451875 - 08/02/2018 01:23 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
nimbuss1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/11/2013
Posts: 298
Loc: Kamerunga, Cairns
nice little blob hanging out of Cooktown.....
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/satellite/qld

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#1451880 - 08/02/2018 08:57 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Just monsoon trough convection id say
_________________________
Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1451909 - 08/02/2018 14:17 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: nimbuss1]
Squeako_88 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2005
Posts: 458
Loc: Elimbah 4516
Yep, it's now invest 99P. Models have it moving away.
_________________________
Records are MEANT to be broken.

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#1451913 - 08/02/2018 15:40 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 526
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Invest 97SH may be one to watch. It is a lot further east (beyond New Caledonia) and models suggest going east then turning back. No sign yet of any interest for Qld, but coming back a long way and so will be interesting to watch nonetheless. Albeit it is just a model speculation at present.
http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/southernhemisphere/2018/sh972018/

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...018020718&fh=30

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#1451923 - 08/02/2018 17:40 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25302
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Comes back along way but too far south. Certainly one to watch as you say. Good pick up.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

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#1451926 - 08/02/2018 18:16 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Gotta love how the NZ / Tasman Sea trough magically reappears as soon as that TC gets close to the Aussie AOR. Classic.

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#1451945 - 09/02/2018 00:22 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23688
Loc: Townsville
Just like clockwork.

Im sure there is some sort of connection. Has to be.
_________________________
2015/16 Storms
13 Storms 2500km travelled

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#1451946 - 09/02/2018 02:23 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25302
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
i remember the days when February cyclones had no steering at all laugh
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/kelvin.shtml
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

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#1451947 - 09/02/2018 04:52 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1863
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Wow Kelvin was all over the place.
_________________________
Cheers Doug. 491 Doug/ uhf ch40 When severe weather
BOM Stormspotter G0388 Roma S W Queensland Formerly Redcliffe.
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IQUEENSL852

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#1451948 - 09/02/2018 05:45 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 219
Latest GFS run has an interesting result crossing around Hervey Bay, as a Topical Depression or Cat 1 at around day 15. In terms of time, it's a long time between models and there's a substantial amount of time which allows the model inputs to change and alter the proposed course. Nonetheless, subsequent model runs have resulted in a more northern track being proposed in the model.


Edited by MangroveJack70 (09/02/2018 05:52)

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#1451951 - 09/02/2018 07:09 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4481
Loc: Brisbane
I've been noticing that the model runs have been shifting that system a little further west with each passing run.

12z was the first run to bring it back onto the QLD coast.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1451952 - 09/02/2018 07:41 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 526
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
EC model also aligning to GFS

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#1451966 - 09/02/2018 09:50 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12989
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Latest GFS run has it barrelling towards NSW before dying in the Tasman Sea as it heads to NZ.
_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1451967 - 09/02/2018 09:55 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Raindammit]
ifishcq Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2018
Posts: 81
Loc: Rockhampton
Originally Posted By: Raindammit
Latest GFS run has it barrelling towards NSW before dying in the Tasman Sea as it heads to NZ.


NZ seems to get more cyclones that Qld & NT combined

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#1451987 - 09/02/2018 14:26 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Just two of GFS's 18z ensemble members even bring it back towards the coast at all.

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#1451994 - 09/02/2018 15:07 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
My prediction is it will be a coast hugger from harvey bay towards townsville but before it reachs tsv it will turn east and bugger off lol

Seriously. All models are aligning so far for that system to turn to the west. They differ on speed and t4ack but deffo all agree on the system coming back towards the Queensland coast.


Edited by rainthisway (09/02/2018 15:14)
_________________________
Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1452024 - 09/02/2018 17:51 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3234
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Yea well that will be a first for me, I've never seen one come from there and make it close to our coast (im sure its happened before just not in the past 10 years that I can remember) That low models had going to NZ which seems more plausible. On another note and I don't want to bring it up but I had to laugh about Higgins not happy about the media talking it up lol


Edited by Steve O (09/02/2018 17:55)

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#1452046 - 09/02/2018 20:04 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1556
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
Stevo, quite a few times cyclones have come out from very far east (off the charts ) and barrelled into the coast and some to south-east qld. Not unusual and i think it was common in the eighties
_________________________
If it's Flooded - FORGET IT

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#1452074 - 10/02/2018 08:02 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23688
Loc: Townsville
I would never say it was common.
_________________________
2015/16 Storms
13 Storms 2500km travelled

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#1452076 - 10/02/2018 08:05 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1556
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
Dawgggg , compared to now buddy.
_________________________
If it's Flooded - FORGET IT

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#1452093 - 10/02/2018 12:40 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
I had a look back in the eighties and your right. A few did hit the queensland coast in various locations and they came out from way east. Its uncommon but not impossible.
_________________________
Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1452096 - 10/02/2018 13:31 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
I would never say it was common.


Especially not from that far out.

With current system, we basically get 3-4 days worth of ridging across the Tasman & CS followed by another endless stream of trough development between NSW & NZ. Doesn't seem fair that our window of opportunity is always so small. Personally had a gutful of the endless troughiness through that area for the past month. Everyone was hyping up those hot SSTs in the Tasman Sea and so far they've done jack for us but enhanced rainfall for the west coast of NZ.

This doesn't look good no matter how you look at it:


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#1452098 - 10/02/2018 14:18 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5396
Yep there's often been talk of big rains coming whenever SST's become really warm off the east coast but there's often cases when no big rains eventuate due to unfavourable synoptic patterns - this summer being a classic example.

Social media has also been rife (again) with ongoing rumours about a "twin cyclone" impact on NE NSW/SE QLD within the next couple of weeks based on extended GFS.

Below is the latest track spread for TC Gita from a range of deterministic models and ensembles colour-coded by intensity (via the NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program). Uses the non-Australian intensity scale:



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#1452140 - 11/02/2018 06:33 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 219
Awesome graphic Ken. Very greatful for your input as always.

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#1452166 - 11/02/2018 11:43 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Yep most models have it saying hi to NZ. But still there is a very slight chance we might get something but its a chance that isnt even worth giving a second thought really. Maybe March is our TC month but with this seasons record im not holding my breath
_________________________
Nikko

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#1452233 - 11/02/2018 20:33 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 526
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Current forecasts not favouring Australia albeit with low but not impossible chance.
Canadian CMC model appears to deviate.. As it did in TC Debbie
A few days to watch yet though.
http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/..._model_late.png


Edited by Flowin (11/02/2018 20:34)
Edit Reason: Link

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#1452247 - 11/02/2018 21:43 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23688
Loc: Townsville
It aint hitting qld
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#1452251 - 11/02/2018 22:00 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
I have to agree with Trav...this TC is not.for us.
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#1452258 - 11/02/2018 23:10 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1226
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Its gone
Not even looking at models for that.....silly thing
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#1452259 - 11/02/2018 23:10 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5965
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
It aint hitting qld


Agreed. Not even close.

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#1452321 - 12/02/2018 12:24 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
I predict we will get a cyclone cross the coast anytime between now and when Australia drifts outside the TC risk zone lol bet I get it right.
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#1452402 - 12/02/2018 21:45 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: rainthisway]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 526
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Originally Posted By: rainthisway
I predict we will get a cyclone cross the coast anytime between now and when Australia drifts outside the TC risk zone lol bet I get it right.


I had to read that several times. I kept interpreting as to get a coast crossing, we the need the coast to move into the path of a cyclone. LoL

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#1452404 - 12/02/2018 21:54 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Homer]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 526
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Originally Posted By: Homer
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
It aint hitting qld


Agreed. Not even close.


Based on what models overwhelming say now and last 2-3 days on balance of probabilities I would agree Gita and Qld are an unlikely engagement.
But I am not so bullish in confidence of model predictions 6 days beyond forecast time zero. It took models a while to turn TC Debbie south from the original forecast path that was to Northern Territory 👀. One of the first models to turn Debbie south was CMC. This is what is also out there yet to be proved right or wrong https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/09P_geps_00z.png
Don't take that as a forecast, it is cherry picked to show a point... Let's see where she goes, and noting that forecast intensity is somewhat broad http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/...ensity_late.png

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#1452409 - 12/02/2018 22:17 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 526
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld

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#1452415 - 12/02/2018 23:10 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Flowin]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 219
Originally Posted By: Flowin


I must admit, I was impressed with HWRF for TC Debbie and Hurricane Irma. The Model performed well very early in the piece I thought, and didn't disappoint as the systems approached and crossed the coast.

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#1452419 - 12/02/2018 23:18 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Ken Kato Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5396
The HWRF is quite well-known for its low track errors for TC's compared to many other models so it's one of the better ones to watch.

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#1452421 - 13/02/2018 00:05 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 526
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Thanks Ken your info on models (and weather!) is a great value to us
HWRF has brought the forecast track for Gita further north closer to New Caledonia over the last 36 hours or so. Be interesting to watch further developments and forecasts, and other models as well

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#1452428 - 13/02/2018 05:48 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 219
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
The HWRF is quite well-known for its low track errors for TC's compared to many other models so it's one of the better ones to watch.


Thanks for the info Ken. Have been watching Hurricane Hunters (NOAA) on Netflix. The deep history and work they're tasked with sure does make one reflect on the work going on in the background by the official monitoring and agencies, when mother nature is or about to unleash her wrath. Pretty cool show.

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#1452429 - 13/02/2018 06:13 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1212
Loc: Toowoomba
It would be amazing if the almost impossible(hitting the coast in a weakened state of course) happened, but would it give rain though to areas that desperately need it?

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#1452495 - 13/02/2018 14:25 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Flowin]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Originally Posted By: Flowin
Originally Posted By: rainthisway
I predict we will get a cyclone cross the coast anytime between now and when Australia drifts outside the TC risk zone lol bet I get it right.


I had to read that several times. I kept interpreting as to get a coast crossing, we the need the coast to move into the path of a cyclone. LoL


Well that would work too lol

This heat is beyond ridiculous. 36c atm. If that cyclone follows the forecast track, that is worse...so close yet so far.


Edited by rainthisway (13/02/2018 14:32)
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#1452632 - 14/02/2018 09:41 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
pabloako Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 30/03/2007
Posts: 1647
Loc: Ocean View, Queensland
Here is a 24 hour timelasse of satellite images covering the Gita area. New Zealand may be in for a bumpy ride if the models are correct.
http://www.oceanviewweather.com.au/Satellite/HimawariSatellite-CentralPacific.aspx

(Updates every 30 minutes)
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#1452773 - 14/02/2018 23:21 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 526
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
I like that view and imagery.of Gita
World thread now home for Gita discussion ?

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#1452781 - 15/02/2018 05:45 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Flowin]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 219
Originally Posted By: Flowin
I like that view and imagery.of Gita
World thread now home for Gita discussion ?


I like that idea. Imagine what one could potentially learn from the systems which develop in other jurisdictions - egL Hurrican Irma.

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#1452786 - 15/02/2018 08:13 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3524
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Ext GFS has a depression hanging around central C.S. & then drifting close to SEQ at end of month. One to watch? Havnt looked at other models.

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#1452838 - 15/02/2018 15:35 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Steamy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/03/2004
Posts: 703
Loc: Mackay Qld Australia
On the local rags inter-web page ..........more bold forecasting

A TROPICAL cyclone set to impact Queensland will develop in the Coral Sea in the next fortnight, according to one long-range weather forecaster.

But official Bureau of Meteorology observers are yet to issue any predictions or warnings.

Hayden Walker from Walker's Weather is predicting the cyclone will begin developing late February and cross the coast between North and Central Queensland in early March.

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#1452898 - 15/02/2018 18:26 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Steamy]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 219
Originally Posted By: Steamy
On the local rags inter-web page ..........more bold forecasting

A TROPICAL cyclone set to impact Queensland will develop in the Coral Sea in the next fortnight, according to one long-range weather forecaster.

But official Bureau of Meteorology observers are yet to issue any predictions or warnings.

Hayden Walker from Walker's Weather is predicting the cyclone will begin developing late February and cross the coast between North and Central Queensland in early March.



This is just my thoughts, but I think some need to accept that there would be qualified Meteorologists / Mathematicians / Statisticians / etc who could have worked for the BOM at some point, possibly as Consultants, and through the association possess the credentials to do this type of work. The reality is that the skillsets appear complimentary by nature and thus, people could learn by this.

Occasionally, Long Range Weather Forecasters have been in the media spotlight re predictions (generally in terms of seasonality, etc). Simply suggesting that it's not new - refer to website.

Personally I think there's bigger challenges with the sensationalism attached to way that media in the main, represent these systems. Thankfully though, I think they're getting a little bit better in providing information other than 'the bold statement', 'shock headlines' or not disclosing information specific to forecasts.

Just thinking that the narrative needs to be considerate of those whom have specialised in this space, have put the hard work into attaining the necessary credentials, as opposed to simply putting them in a box and labelling them as 'x'. I think we're better than that.

This is just a general statement re media comments, as opposed to singling our the specific comment included as the reference.



Edited by MangroveJack70 (15/02/2018 18:27)

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#1452899 - 15/02/2018 18:32 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
amphetamarine Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/03/2004
Posts: 288
Loc: Cairns
My orchid is pretty good at predicting rain events 2/3 days out. usually flowers before we get some decent rain. Nothing at the moment. frown

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#1452905 - 15/02/2018 18:56 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: amphetamarine]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 219
Originally Posted By: amphetamarine
My orchid is pretty good at predicting rain events 2/3 days out. usually flowers before we get some decent rain. Nothing at the moment. frown


smile

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#1452947 - 15/02/2018 21:45 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
WANDJINA G'vale Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/03/2006
Posts: 2374
Loc: Gordonvale - Qld
He sets out a timeframe, lets see how that goes, 2 weeks is nothing in the scheme of things - wont be waiting long to find out if he is onto something or not with his long range work
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#1452957 - 15/02/2018 22:48 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Steamy]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Originally Posted By: Steamy
On the local rags inter-web page ..........more bold forecasting

A TROPICAL cyclone set to impact Queensland will develop in the Coral Sea in the next fortnight, according to one long-range weather forecaster.

But official Bureau of Meteorology observers are yet to issue any predictions or warnings.

Hayden Walker from Walker's Weather is predicting the cyclone will begin developing late February and cross the coast between North and Central Queensland in early March.


He also preducted above average rainfall for townsville from December...we know how that didnt happen. This guy is another moron talking out his rear.
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#1452991 - 16/02/2018 11:12 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Kowree Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/03/2012
Posts: 103
Loc: Utchee Creek via Innisfail.
I watched cyclones on WZ and followed the forums at my computer desk in Victoria with avid morbid fascination never thinking I would ever visit, let alone live in an area where cyclones occur.
Half the time I have no idea of what the hell is being spoken of but I'm learning.
But, my question will most likely be thought of as dumb but I am curious. I have been watching Cyclone Gita for the last week (on earth.nullschool.net) moseying around the islands causing grief and now it is descending upon New Caledonia and I am wondering - why will it peter out and hit NZ as a fiercesome storm - why won't it just keep going west as it has done for a while and hit say Rockhampton?
All though, I must admit, it does seem to be doing a slight lefty towards the south as I speak.

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#1452993 - 16/02/2018 12:09 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5096
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
There is generally an upper level trough that reaches up from the tasman sea and this serves to send the majority of systems SE to NZ. Tjey can trave a long way west but generally do it from a mlre northerly section of the western Pacific

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#1452995 - 16/02/2018 12:17 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Kowree]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Kowree
I watched cyclones on WZ and followed the forums at my computer desk in Victoria with avid morbid fascination never thinking I would ever visit, let alone live in an area where cyclones occur.
Half the time I have no idea of what the hell is being spoken of but I'm learning.
But, my question will most likely be thought of as dumb but I am curious. I have been watching Cyclone Gita for the last week (on earth.nullschool.net) moseying around the islands causing grief and now it is descending upon New Caledonia and I am wondering - why will it peter out and hit NZ as a fiercesome storm - why won't it just keep going west as it has done for a while and hit say Rockhampton?
All though, I must admit, it does seem to be doing a slight lefty towards the south as I speak.


First things first. Gita is nearing the end of the ridge (red shading) which steered her westward for the past 4-5 days. Remember, the steering around these ridges are anti-clockwise. Had that ridge (red shading) extended further west towards our coast then she would have no doubt continued on her journey towards the QLD coast. But it isn't to be - as you can see, the ridge stops between Oz & NZ, so she will fall along the western edge of this ridge. Second phase will be a big trough (blue shading over TAS / VIC / NSW) which will come in from the west and 'capture' her, which will lead to NZ eventually copping it.



Unfortunately those troughs have been a regular occurrence through that area for the past month or two, and are, imo, a big reason the east coast has been so dry (as they not only modify the steering flow to redirect anything in the Coral Sea SE, but they also drive up dry subtropical air behind them).

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#1452999 - 16/02/2018 13:14 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Mega]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Ive never worked out where ridging is on charts. How do you know that area of red is where the ridging is?

Nevermind...its not a self done chart its a chart from a site.


Edited by rainthisway (16/02/2018 13:15)
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#1453020 - 16/02/2018 16:23 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Mega]
Kowree Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/03/2012
Posts: 103
Loc: Utchee Creek via Innisfail.
Thanks Mega and Brett Guy, much appreciated.
The weather down in Victoria and South Australia was actually quite predictable - it mainly came from the west or sometimes from the north if there were cyclones up the top of WA or most dreaded, the stinking hot northerlies in summer and generally a bushfire to go with it.
But here, we seem to have more influences which makes it interesting.
I'm still going to keep my eye on Gita and see how she pans out. My homework.
Poor NZ, they are copping hidings from these ex's.


Edited by Kowree (16/02/2018 16:27)

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#1453052 - 16/02/2018 18:17 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
If only the latest gfs long range forecast came true on weatherzone. GoC TL coming inland just at the right place....unlikely but still nice.
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#1453105 - 16/02/2018 22:11 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25302
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
can only wish, but the signs are ok that it will at least move SE (at this stage)
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June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

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#1453126 - 17/02/2018 05:37 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Lets hope it holds but not holding my breath.
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#1453132 - 17/02/2018 06:58 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25302
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
gfs already moved the low 200km off the coast on 12z run.
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Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

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#1453149 - 17/02/2018 10:12 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1818
Loc: Kingaroy
EC/GFS have dropped it by the looks of it.

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#1453178 - 17/02/2018 14:56 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Yep. Dropped...story of our life. Maybe this will be the first year to have no cyclone in australias area of responsibilty in the CS.

Broomes year to date total is crazy. Over 1300mm. My year to date is around 300mm at the most


Edited by rainthisway (17/02/2018 15:01)
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#1453398 - 19/02/2018 15:16 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Another gfs tease that will most likely never happen on long range
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#1453493 - 19/02/2018 23:45 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: rainthisway]
Dan101 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/03/2011
Posts: 312
Loc: Mackay, QLD
Originally Posted By: rainthisway
Another gfs tease that will most likely never happen on long range


Aaaand gooooone in 06z! lol. Gotta laugh.

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#1453548 - 20/02/2018 11:05 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25302
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
18z has a cat 3 crossing the whitsundays at a fast speed, but its a long, long way out.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

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#1453552 - 20/02/2018 11:33 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
It wont happen. Although the Mjo should arrive next month, hopefully with another monsoon burst that actually eff3cts us.
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#1453567 - 20/02/2018 13:19 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5396
GFS deterministic + long range + TC scenarios = almost like flipping a coin.

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#1453571 - 20/02/2018 13:39 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
GFS deterministic + long range + TC scenarios = almost like flipping a coin.


Pretty much like any long range of any kind lol, I will say its gonna happen after it happens...best way to do it lol
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#1453573 - 20/02/2018 13:44 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5396
Multi model ensembles give a better idea of the uncertainty/confidence of scenarios at longer ranges than a single deterministic version of a model thatís notoriously dodgy at longer ranges (e.g. the recent SE QLD twin cyclone impact scenarios from GFS). But GFS is good entertainment value Iíll give it that!

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#1453584 - 20/02/2018 15:07 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
GFS loves to tease us this year...its like look cyclone...hahaha took it away...looks heres another....noo just kiddings....takes it away.
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#1453622 - 20/02/2018 19:14 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: rainthisway]
Dan101 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/03/2011
Posts: 312
Loc: Mackay, QLD
Originally Posted By: rainthisway
GFS loves to tease us this year...its like look cyclone...hahaha took it away...looks heres another....noo just kiddings....takes it away.


GFS be like...


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#1453623 - 20/02/2018 19:21 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3524
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
LOL

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#1453629 - 20/02/2018 20:11 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 219
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Multi model ensembles give a better idea of the uncertainty/confidence of scenarios at longer ranges than a single deterministic version of a model thatís notoriously dodgy at longer ranges (e.g. the recent SE QLD twin cyclone impact scenarios from GFS). But GFS is good entertainment value Iíll give it that!




Totally agree Ken. Have been quite fanatical in learning about the various Models (to the degree that one can) since TC Larry in 2006. What i've found most beneficial, is monitoring a potential TC formation (long-range) and following subsequent Model runs across a range of Models to observe whether the Models converge or diverge. Heaven knows i'm still learning and a large part of that is found within the contributions of numerous Forum Members over the years.

The multi-model ensemble you shared recently was great to understand the potential track of TC Gita recently. Found it interesting that the JTWC Model didn't vary that much from the earlier runs to the latter. If memory serves me correctly, I think a number of the Models forecast similar tracks relatively early in the piece as well.

Thought it even more interesting that one of the Model runs for 2 seperate Models I think, also forecast crossings around Hervey Bay and Brisbane / Gold Coast areas - liked the comment you made about an article within the 'media' . Model runs adjacent to the specific runs suggested (I thought at least), these runs were outliers if anything. Unless of course, one or more of the Inputs had a significant impact on the broader Model run itself.

Glad to see you still contributing after all these years.

Chrs

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#1453632 - 20/02/2018 20:27 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5396
Thanks Chris, there's been a few times I was on the verge of leaving though lol.

Yeah the map below for Gita shows the usefulness of ensembles in gauging what the spread of possible future tracks is like and uncertainty/confidence. The ensembles in this map were run way back on the 9th Feb just as Gita was named.

The black line is the observed track while the coloured lines are from a range of ensembles (including the ensemble versions of GFS, EC, UK, etc). You can see that while Gita's forecast track trended west for awhile, it's observed track still lay just inside the main spread of scenarios.

In contrast, the standard deterministic version of GFS was going for that now-infamous SE QLD impact for a number of runs:




Edited by Ken Kato (20/02/2018 20:29)
Edit Reason: added stuff

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#1453635 - 20/02/2018 20:42 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
MangroveJack70 Offline
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Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 219
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Thanks Chris, there's been a few times I was on the verge of leaving though lol.

Yeah the map below for Gita shows the usefulness of ensembles in gauging what the spread of possible future tracks is like and uncertainty/confidence. The ensembles in this map were run way back on the 9th Feb just as Gita was named.

The black line is the observed track while the coloured lines are from a range of ensembles (including the ensemble versions of GFS, EC, UK, etc). You can see that while Gita's forecast track trended west for awhile, it's observed track still lay just inside the main spread of scenarios.

In contrast, the standard deterministic version of GFS was going for that now-infamous SE QLD impact for a number of runs:





I knew there was a reason I did some stats at Uni. smile

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#1454032 - 23/02/2018 11:13 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
gazza townsville Offline
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Registered: 12/01/2012
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Is this rain off the coast at the moment going to be cooling the water In hand with the lower temps associated with it going to be making it less favorable for the off chance anything does try develop moving forward or as i suspect being so close to the coast or on shore makes it pretty much insignificant

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#1454048 - 23/02/2018 12:22 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
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Registered: 09/11/2015
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Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Wont cool the water enough.
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#1454089 - 23/02/2018 16:28 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
WANDJINA G'vale Offline
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Registered: 22/03/2006
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Loc: Gordonvale - Qld
I was out off Cairns (not far) last week and the water temp sensor on my craft was showing 31c
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#1454108 - 23/02/2018 17:31 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
ifishcq Offline
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#1454133 - 23/02/2018 20:03 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: gazza townsville]
scott12 Offline
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Loc: maadi Tully area
Originally Posted By: gazza townsville
Is this rain off the coast at the moment going to be cooling the water In hand with the lower temps associated with it going to be making it less favorable for the off chance anything does try develop moving forward or as i suspect being so close to the coast or on shore makes it pretty much insignificant


Water is still 29-30c at the moment at the reefs off Mission beach..while Townsville maybe a degree or so cooler its still plenty warm enough for cyclogenesis ...

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#1454783 - 26/02/2018 16:02 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mick10 Offline
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Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25302
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
weak low over the Bowen area today, EC forecasted it. BOM have nothing in their outlook so not expecting much from it. Though EC did have a decent flow
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Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

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#1454788 - 26/02/2018 16:49 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Inclement Weather Offline
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Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5237
Loc: Diamond Valley
Gosh, Mick, has it come to this? Getting excited over an eddy spinning up. It has been a very quiet season, eh? I do remember 2005-2006 being a very quiet one too (bar a short-lived Kate), and then all of a sudden after mid- March we had STCs Larry; Wati; and Monica in relatively quick succession. I feel that the last half of March may be the beginning of something similar.
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#1454800 - 26/02/2018 17:58 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mick10 Offline
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Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25302
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
yeah it is that bad mate. pretty sad state of affairs.

EC though have this low being pushed northwards Thur into Fri giving Townsville area 100-200mm.
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Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

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#1454817 - 26/02/2018 18:51 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Raindammit Offline
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Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Looks like there is another(?) circulation ab out 200km ENE of Bowen on the visible sat image.
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#1454845 - 26/02/2018 20:36 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
gazza townsville Offline
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So this little low that seems to have spun up just south of townsville north of bowen. Would that make the rain and small scud storms we are having townsville kind of like little feeder bands i guess i want to call them???

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#1454876 - 26/02/2018 23:35 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
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Registered: 09/11/2015
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Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Still no significant lows for tc develop on the horizon....either be a late bloomer or first year to have nothing in the CS.
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#1454877 - 27/02/2018 00:55 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mick10 Offline
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Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25302
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
good shower activity around the low at present off from the Whitsundays, also some half decent convergence over Creal Reef.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

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#1454909 - 27/02/2018 11:35 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
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Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
You saying theres a chance of this intensifying?
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#1454926 - 27/02/2018 13:24 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Dawgggg Offline
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Registered: 25/03/2007
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Loc: Townsville
I cant see where he said that
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#1454928 - 27/02/2018 13:39 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mega Offline
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Registered: 03/02/2003
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Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
The Coral Sea is a joke.

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#1454937 - 27/02/2018 15:54 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Snapper22lb Offline
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Registered: 17/02/2015
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Loc: Golden Beach
I can feel your frustration Mega but be careful what you wish for. Nature always seems to come back to equilibrium, all that pent up energy in the CS will need to be released one way or another.

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#1454938 - 27/02/2018 16:02 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Snapper22lb]
Ken Kato Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5396
Originally Posted By: Snapper22lb
I can feel your frustration Mega but be careful what you wish for. Nature always seems to come back to equilibrium, all that pent up energy in the CS will need to be released one way or another.

It's nice to think so. And we've had very late TC activity before. But logic also dictates that persistently warmer than normal sea surface temps don't always end up finishing the season with a big bang. It's no use having warm SST's for ages if there's no suitable triggers (e.g. equatorial Rossby waves, etc etc), sufficiently weak shear, sufficiently deep moisture and instability that line up in just the right way to utilise those warm waters and allow decent TC's to form.
You also need the right synoptic steering to direct any TC's towards the coast (no use if lots of TC's form in the Coral Sea if they're continually getting steered SE towards the graveyard).

Not quite TC-related but so many people were also talking about how the significantly warmer than normal waters off the east coast were bound to cause a much wetter than normal summer. But like many times in the past, it was much drier than normal until recently along large sections because the synoptic patterns weren't cooperating to take advantage of it.

Who knows how this season will end up.

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#1454939 - 27/02/2018 16:03 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Snapper22lb]
Mega Offline
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Registered: 03/02/2003
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Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Snapper22lb
I can feel your frustration Mega but be careful what you wish for. Nature always seems to come back to equilibrium, all that pent up energy in the CS will need to be released one way or another.


It was kinda reverse psychology. I said the same thing this time last year and Debbie rolled through in March.

All I know is the window of opportunities for TC genesis and westward moving TC's in the Coral Sea seems to be much less than that of other tropical basins in the world. You will basically get maybe 4-5 days worth of deep layer ridging across the Coral Sea followed by 3 weeks of westerlies caused by troughing. Don't know why, and nobody seems to be able to provide any logical explanation to it either.

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#1454944 - 27/02/2018 17:17 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Snapper22lb Offline
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Loc: Golden Beach
Yes, a lot of ducks need to line up but when was the last time we had no cyclones?

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#1454945 - 27/02/2018 17:29 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Inclement Weather Offline
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Registered: 07/03/2006
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Loc: Diamond Valley
It's the southern-isolating cross-oscillating vector-factor that's the cause of the uncertainty - not to mention Heisenberg's uncertainty principle. wink
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#1454946 - 27/02/2018 17:31 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Caillin Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 21/03/2012
Posts: 17
lol, I don't think superposition at the subatomic level is going to have any bearing on macro scale weather events smile

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#1454949 - 27/02/2018 17:51 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Popeye Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Originally Posted By: Inclement Weather
Gosh, Mick, has it come to this? Getting excited over an eddy spinning up.

I'm getting very excited. Just watching that eddy on the latest EC and seems to slowly make its way inland through QLD and the NT up the Top End and pop off the West Australian coast to give us our ??? 5th or 6th system of the year over here in Broome. Cheers guys. Pack her up, load her with moisture and send her over to the West. smile cheers
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...18022700&fh=192
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#1454958 - 27/02/2018 18:28 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Snapper22lb Offline
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Registered: 17/02/2015
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Loc: Golden Beach
Popeye you really aren't helping! As I said nature likes equilibrium, one day you will get zip and we will get 3000mm. Now go back to your never ending torrential downpours and leave us poor parched devil's alone...

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#1454959 - 27/02/2018 18:30 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
rainthisway Offline
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Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
I cant see where he said that


I didnt say he did bit I was asking if its possible...worded it wrong
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#1454960 - 27/02/2018 18:38 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Yeah Pee off Popeye LOL, you guys have seen more rain in these two months then townsville has seen in a couple years.
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Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1454964 - 27/02/2018 19:06 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
I do feel for you guys. I have missed coming in here and stirring you QLD crew. But I just thought it would be plain mean if I did. So I have let you be. No doubt something will crank eventually. Read the latest BOM trop notes. Something might fire for QLD after NT and WA has had a go first.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/tropical-note/
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1454968 - 27/02/2018 19:17 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Long Road Home Offline
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Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8572
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
If I was living in N QLD, think I'd much rather this scattered/widespread activity than a TC which would hog all the moisture and give most places less.

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#1454972 - 27/02/2018 19:40 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Nice moderate rainfall here now.

Just had a random rouge bolt of lightning knock out the power for few seconds. Had no thunder or anything for a little while then bang out of nowhere.


Edited by rainthisway (27/02/2018 19:42)
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#1454991 - 27/02/2018 22:27 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Dan101 Offline
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Registered: 03/03/2011
Posts: 312
Loc: Mackay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Popeye
Originally Posted By: Inclement Weather
Gosh, Mick, has it come to this? Getting excited over an eddy spinning up.

I'm getting very excited. Just watching that eddy on the latest EC and seems to slowly make its way inland through QLD and the NT up the Top End and pop off the West Australian coast to give us our ??? 5th or 6th system of the year over here in Broome. Cheers guys. Pack her up, load her with moisture and send her over to the West. smile cheers
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...18022700&fh=192


When I go to tropical tidbits to check our latest forecast for weather inactivity, I always use this particular regional view - not because it really shows the Coral Sea and QLD well, but mostly so I can't see how much action WA is getting!


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#1454996 - 27/02/2018 22:59 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Haha to funny Dan. I think QLD will be getting something before the season is out.
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#1455010 - 28/02/2018 07:30 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25302
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
dont really care where the low goes after this, right now its bring us our best rainfall event in 4 years and has just thrown 120mm into dwindling water supplies. The city council turns off the water pumps from the Burdekin dam today, which has been costing us $37,000 a day. So great news.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

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#1455021 - 28/02/2018 08:42 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Mick10]
Dan101 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/03/2011
Posts: 312
Loc: Mackay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Mick10
dont really care where the low goes after this, right now its bring us our best rainfall event in 4 years and has just thrown 120mm into dwindling water supplies. The city council turns off the water pumps from the Burdekin dam today, which has been costing us $37,000 a day. So great news.


That is awesome, we can call it Townsville again (instead of Brownsville). You guys have waited long enough for this type of event.

You can send a bit down our way next time smile

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#1455037 - 28/02/2018 10:02 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25302
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Severe Weather Warning
for HEAVY RAINFALL
For people in Herbert and Lower Burdekin and parts of Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders Forecast Districts.

Issued at 8:48 am Wednesday, 28 February 2018.
Low pressure system to produce heavy rain across north Queensland.

Weather Situation: A surface low near Townsville is forecast to deepen during today and Thursday in response to a slow-moving upper trough and associated low. The surface and upper low are forecast to shift west across the Herbert and Lower Burdekin today, and into the Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders during Thursday. Areas of heavy rainfall are expected to accompany the low with its westward movement across north Queensland.
Heavy rainfall, which may lead to flash flooding, is forecast across coastal and inland parts of the Herbert and Lower Burdekin today and across eastern parts of the Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders overnight and into Thursday.
6 hour rainfall totals of 100mm to 180mm are possible, with isolated falls up to 220mm possible.
Widespread 24 hour rainfall totals between 150mm to 250mm are likely, with isolated falls up to 350mm possible.
Locations which may be affected include Charters Towers, Townsville, Palm Island, Ingham, Ayr, Mingela, Giru, Alva Beach, Einasleigh, Lyndhurst Station, Rollingstone and Gregory Springs.
Queensland Fire and Emergency Services advises that people should:
* Never drive, walk or ride through flood waters. If it's flooded, forget it.
* Keep clear of creeks and storm drains.
* For emergency assistance contact the SES on 132 500.

The next Severe Weather Warning will be issued by 5:00 pm AEST Wednesday.
Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 219. The Bureau and Queensland Fire and Emergency Services would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

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#1455041 - 28/02/2018 10:13 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Snapper22lb Offline
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Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 305
Loc: Golden Beach
Frame that one and put it on the wall Mick!

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#1455061 - 28/02/2018 10:55 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Tgis k8nd of event was bound to happen eventually. Plus a few models show some lows. So next week or so maybe interesting.i believe the march outlook is gonna get thrown str8 out the window.
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#1455063 - 28/02/2018 10:57 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
WANDJINA G'vale Offline
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Registered: 22/03/2006
Posts: 2374
Loc: Gordonvale - Qld
Does it head off north west or , which direction?
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#1455074 - 28/02/2018 12:08 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Forecast to move west
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#1455129 - 28/02/2018 17:15 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Island viewer Offline
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Registered: 01/04/2010
Posts: 247
Loc: Eimeo Qld 4740
Anybody notice the lows here?
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=148.60,-18.82,2354
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#1455131 - 28/02/2018 17:18 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5396
Yep already been discussed above. The low currently near Townsville extends right up into the upper levels.

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#1455134 - 28/02/2018 17:24 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Ken Kato Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5396
12z EC's suggestion was going for a landphoon-like scenario for the current low near Townsville by the time it drifts across northwest QLD this weekend with the equivalent of Cat 1 winds wrapping halfway around the small but vigorous system:



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#1455142 - 28/02/2018 18:00 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Island viewer Offline
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Registered: 01/04/2010
Posts: 247
Loc: Eimeo Qld 4740
95P Invest on Navy/NRL TC Pages
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#1455192 - 28/02/2018 21:39 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Island viewer]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 219
Originally Posted By: Island viewer
95P Invest on Navy/NRL TC Pages


Saw that. Very interesting indeed. Wonder what the likelihood would be of historical Lightning data being around. The systems off Cairns and the QLD coast / inland over the past couple of weeks have been insane. Would be interested to learn where this stacks up in terms of storm activity over say the past 30 to 40 years. I doubt it's available, however other data could indicate the prevalence of storm activity over the period as well.

Any genuine thoughts would be appreciated...

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#1455215 - 01/03/2018 07:38 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: MangroveJack70]
whynot Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/10/2001
Posts: 539
Loc: Brisbane
Originally Posted By: MangroveJack70
Wonder what the likelihood would be of historical Lightning data being around.


In a previous role, I had access to the lightning strike archive back to 1999. The problem comparing historical data with today's data is that owners of the lightning tracker network have been continually improving the network (accuracy of the strike and detection rates). If one could compare two theoretical "identical" storms, say 1999 verses 2018, the raw data from the 2018 thunderstorm would show significantly "more" lightning; simply because the 2018 lightning tracker network has better detection rates. The other non-trivial issue when analysing lightning data is processing the millions and millions of records. It is usually beyond desktop computers and one needs access to grunty servers or cloud infrastructure.

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#1455237 - 01/03/2018 10:07 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Access is showing a interesting scenario at end of 10 day run...if that eventuates..
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Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1455276 - 01/03/2018 14:11 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Jezza Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 18/03/2015
Posts: 12
Loc: Kingston Beach, TAS
[img]http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/?lt=wzcountry&lc=aus&mt=accessg&mc=mslp&mso=0&mh=240&focus=mh[/img]

10 day outlook on GFS looking pretty promising for some cyclonic activity in FNQ. Will be interesting to see if, how and where it unfolds!

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#1455279 - 01/03/2018 14:19 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Jezza thats BOMs access model. Deffo something to watch.
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Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1455303 - 01/03/2018 16:57 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: whynot]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 219
Originally Posted By: whynot
Originally Posted By: MangroveJack70
Wonder what the likelihood would be of historical Lightning data being around.


In a previous role, I had access to the lightning strike archive back to 1999. The problem comparing historical data with today's data is that owners of the lightning tracker network have been continually improving the network (accuracy of the strike and detection rates). If one could compare two theoretical "identical" storms, say 1999 verses 2018, the raw data from the 2018 thunderstorm would show significantly "more" lightning; simply because the 2018 lightning tracker network has better detection rates. The other non-trivial issue when analysing lightning data is processing the millions and millions of records. It is usually beyond desktop computers and one needs access to grunty servers or cloud infrastructure.



Thanks for the reply. I work with data on a full-time basis and I must admit, I thought it would be a long shot. Have seen some figures of late and I think i've seen numbers of 100K+ strikes in a single night. Could be wrong, but that's nuts hey.

Thanks for the info. Anything which assists to develop my knowledge and understanding is always appreciated.

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#1455305 - 01/03/2018 17:07 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 219
What's everyone's thoughts on this piece. Interested from a critical thinking perspective of both the positive and negative points than anything.

Would be great if we could avoid talking about the media and all that stuff that comes with that. Flood and rain damage is more often than overlooked when Tropical Cyclones are spoken of. Keen to learn what people are thinking.

Thx

https://higginsstormchasing.com/major-record-flood-forecast-western-queensland/

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#1455308 - 01/03/2018 17:42 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Sillybanter Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 17/03/2017
Posts: 34
Loc: Toowoomba
Well we know from history this type of article is very polarising. I personally don't mind it as long as we take everything with a grain of salt. As the models suggest at this time this is the predicted rainfall amounts but as we all know exact locations and amounts are going to vary a lot from what it says now. Believe me when I say most people in Western Qld are praying that this one comes off and they will deal with whatever hardships it brings with it. Because thats what they have always done in the past and will continue to do in the future. However they will also not be surprised to see it drift across the gulf and head for W.A. They have had enough setbacks not to believe any forecast until they are emptying the rain gauges.

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#1455311 - 01/03/2018 18:13 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
SBT Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2007
Posts: 14224
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
Just making people aware of the possible damage a little Cat 1 could do in the next couple of weeks re flooding and structure damage. If we cop one it could be pretty devastating as the ground is well saturated (actually over saturated) at the moment and it won't take much for a lot of trees to come down with the water logged soils. Run off will cause local flooding, nothing new there. Rail line infrastructure will be damaged, as will roads, power water. Again nothing new there but there are hundreds of new families who have moved to Townsville since the last good big blow we had (Yasi) and the lessons learnt then may need to be relearned by some new comers.
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#1455317 - 01/03/2018 19:04 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: SBT]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 219
Originally Posted By: SBT
Just making people aware of the possible damage a little Cat 1 could do in the next couple of weeks re flooding and structure damage. If we cop one it could be pretty devastating as the ground is well saturated (actually over saturated) at the moment and it won't take much for a lot of trees to come down with the water logged soils. Run off will cause local flooding, nothing new there. Rail line infrastructure will be damaged, as will roads, power water. Again nothing new there but there are hundreds of new families who have moved to Townsville since the last good big blow we had (Yasi) and the lessons learnt then may need to be relearned by some new comers.



Thanks for sharing. Was thinking something quite similar. There's been good a lot of storm activity of late across the state, and one must wonder how much water is travelling toward the natural water courses at the moment, how hydrated the soil (and its many layers is), and what this means in terms of the potentially impacted areas ability to channel water given the existing volume and unknown volume to come.

It's a nice system that's for sure.

Would be interesting to hear what Ken Kato has to say.

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#1455348 - 01/03/2018 21:37 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
mysteriousbrad Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/10/2007
Posts: 1760
Loc: Rockhampton QLD
Access continuing with the same low at the end of the 10 day run tonight...

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#1455352 - 01/03/2018 21:49 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
zuldjan Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/03/2010
Posts: 116
CMC going for something coming in from the coral sea around similar time, instead of access having it from the GOC
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#1455368 - 01/03/2018 23:56 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Access has it from the CS now as well as a GoC storm...
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#1455420 - 02/03/2018 10:49 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3524
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Yes, AccessG still has that interesting feature slowly progressing 'home' .

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#1455423 - 02/03/2018 11:43 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Only access and CMC atm.
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#1455426 - 02/03/2018 12:03 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3524
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Thats something for a few runs at least.
Be interesting to watch what happens. C.S. is well warm enough.

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#1455429 - 02/03/2018 12:47 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
ol mate Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/03/2010
Posts: 1141
Loc: Ingham, North Qld
Access throwing out a big system in the CS next Saturday. How reliable has this model been?
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#1455430 - 02/03/2018 12:48 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 305
Loc: Golden Beach
So will the high progged on the BOM 4 day chart push the Coral Sea low away to the SE like the rest of them?

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#1455433 - 02/03/2018 13:31 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3524
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
All depends if there is a big ridge involved or a massive trough. I'd be a little happier if GFS be keen as well. It did well with Yasi, I think.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (02/03/2018 13:32)

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#1455451 - 02/03/2018 15:42 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 305
Loc: Golden Beach
Just had a look at GFS, how can they be so wildly different? Unless I am looking at the wrong chart GFS has no hint of a low during the same timeframe.

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#1455458 - 02/03/2018 16:00 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
All depends if there is a big ridge involved or a massive trough. I'd be a little happier if GFS be keen as well. It did well with Yasi, I think.


It did do well with Yasi however this year its been twrrible with its long range. Have to wait a few days and see if any others pick it up or if ACCESS drops it.
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#1455461 - 02/03/2018 16:15 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Ken Kato Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5396
Mangrovejack: Yeah I agree, waterlogged soil is always one of the things to consider when it comes to how easily certain types of trees topple over in strong winds.

1st image below is the forecast soil moisture change from the GFS over the next several days.

2nd image is the percentage of forecast members in the EC ensemble trying to spin up a TC between 7 and 9 days from now (pretty sure the "Tropical Storm" title uses the same categorisation of tropical system as the ECMWF themselves do
i.e. tropical storm = equivalent of Cat 1 TC in the Australian region):





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#1455462 - 02/03/2018 16:25 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Mangrovejack: Yeah I agree, waterlogged soil is always one of the things to consider when it comes to how easily certain types of trees topple over in strong winds.

1st image below is the forecast soil moisture change from the GFS over the next several days.

2nd image is the percentage of forecast members in the EC ensemble trying to spin up a TC between 7 and 9 days from now (pretty sure the "Tropical Storm" title uses the same categorisation of tropical system as the ECMWF themselves do
i.e. tropical storm = equivalent of Cat 1 TC in the Australian region):






Do you trust EC more then the other Models? Because i was reading somewhere, bloody wish I remembered the link, that overseas models are less reliable in Australia, due to there resolution over australia was lower then over there home ground as such. However your second pic has a resolution of 5km which is pretty awesome. So in your honest opinion which model do you believe is the most accurate more times than not.
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#1455463 - 02/03/2018 16:27 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Snapper22lb]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Originally Posted By: Snapper22lb
So will the high progged on the BOM 4 day chart push the Coral Sea low away to the SE like the rest of them?


Considering the CS low on access is beyond 4 days. You cant use the 4 day charts to see which directioon it will shift.
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#1455465 - 02/03/2018 16:36 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 1898
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Null School /gfs/ncep have that low out west up in the GoC in 5-6 days time.

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#1455469 - 02/03/2018 16:54 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5396
Also consider steering flow through a bigger depth of the atmosphere, not just the surface if a strong system does end up developing somewhere.

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#1455470 - 02/03/2018 16:57 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5396
Originally Posted By: rainthisway
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Mangrovejack: Yeah I agree, waterlogged soil is always one of the things to consider when it comes to how easily certain types of trees topple over in strong winds.

1st image below is the forecast soil moisture change from the GFS over the next several days.

2nd image is the percentage of forecast members in the EC ensemble trying to spin up a TC between 7 and 9 days from now (pretty sure the "Tropical Storm" title uses the same categorisation of tropical system as the ECMWF themselves do
i.e. tropical storm = equivalent of Cat 1 TC in the Australian region):






Do you trust EC more then the other Models? Because i was reading somewhere, bloody wish I remembered the link, that overseas models are less reliable in Australia, due to there resolution over australia was lower then over there home ground as such. However your second pic has a resolution of 5km which is pretty awesome. So in your honest opinion which model do you believe is the most accurate more times than not.


Global models such as EC, GFS, etc have the same resolution around the world no matter what region.

There are various other models such as ACCESS and JMA just to name a couple which have different versions that focus on their home regional and local domains and these have finer horizontal resolutions than their own global version e.g. ACCESS-G covers the globe, ACCESS-R focuses on the Australian region and has a finer resolution, and ACCESS-C which covers capital city domains has an even finer resolution.

It's actually a popular myth that just because EC is a global overseas model that its resolution isn't as good as a home grown model such as ACCESS-R
e.g. EC's horizontal resolution of around 9km is actually better than that of ACCESS-R's ~12km (the 5km marked on the map is just referring to the map's resolution rather than the model itself).

It's also a popular myth that a global model is always less accurate than a home grown model. It depends on the model, how good its physics package is, and the way it assimilates observation data from many different sources. Resolution is very important but it's physics package and the way it assimilates obs data is also crucial.

As far as accuracy goes, a middle-of-the-ground multimodel consensus approach (with a slight bias towards the historically more accurate models) is more accurate (on average) than relying on any single model on its own.... even if it's EC. This is backed up by both objective skill stats as well as subjective assessments.

On average, EC has consistently been the most accurate model for decades for just about every weather variable at most levels of the atmosphere but that doesn't mean it beats the other models every time.
The best approach is to look at all of them, then use knowledge of TC principles and experience of what's happened in the past re forecasts vs observed to come up with the most likely scenario.

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#1455482 - 02/03/2018 18:27 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 219
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: rainthisway
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Mangrovejack: Yeah I agree, waterlogged soil is always one of the things to consider when it comes to how easily certain types of trees topple over in strong winds.

1st image below is the forecast soil moisture change from the GFS over the next several days.

2nd image is the percentage of forecast members in the EC ensemble trying to spin up a TC between 7 and 9 days from now (pretty sure the "Tropical Storm" title uses the same categorisation of tropical system as the ECMWF themselves do
i.e. tropical storm = equivalent of Cat 1 TC in the Australian region):






Do you trust EC more then the other Models? Because i was reading somewhere, bloody wish I remembered the link, that overseas models are less reliable in Australia, due to there resolution over australia was lower then over there home ground as such. However your second pic has a resolution of 5km which is pretty awesome. So in your honest opinion which model do you believe is the most accurate more times than not.


Global models such as EC, GFS, etc have the same resolution around the world no matter what region.

There are various other models such as ACCESS and JMA just to name a couple which have different versions that focus on their home regional and local domains and these have finer horizontal resolutions than their own global version e.g. ACCESS-G covers the globe, ACCESS-R focuses on the Australian region and has a finer resolution, and ACCESS-C which covers capital city domains has an even finer resolution.

It's actually a popular myth that just because EC is a global overseas model that its resolution isn't as good as a home grown model such as ACCESS-R
e.g. EC's horizontal resolution of around 9km is actually better than that of ACCESS-R's ~12km (the 5km marked on the map is just referring to the map's resolution rather than the model itself).

It's also a popular myth that a global model is always less accurate than a home grown model. It depends on the model, how good its physics package is, and the way it assimilates observation data from many different sources. Resolution is very important but it's physics package and the way it assimilates obs data is also crucial.

As far as accuracy goes, a middle-of-the-ground multimodel consensus approach (with a slight bias towards the historically more accurate models) is more accurate (on average) than relying on any single model on its own.... even if it's EC. This is backed up by both objective skill stats as well as subjective assessments.

On average, EC has consistently been the most accurate model for decades for just about every weather variable at most levels of the atmosphere but that doesn't mean it beats the other models every time.
The best approach is to look at all of them, then use knowledge of TC principles and experience of what's happened in the past re forecasts vs observed to come up with the most likely scenario.



Thanks for the insights Ken. It sure is interesting watching the individual Models at the moment and I must agree, relying on one specific Model is not recommended. Grateful for the Charts you shared. I think we're about to enter quite an interesting little period with the MJO moving into our region in the next 2 or so weeks (approx). Wind Shear has been quite favourable of late and one would think with the Summer / Autumn change upon us, the cooler Antartic airflow may see the High pressure systems potentially pushing further up the Australian continent and with that, a more northerly push in SSTs and compressed +28 Deg C body of water through to the Equator.

Just taking a punt. Feel free to add your thoughts as I think we're all here to learn.


Thanks Ken.

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#1455490 - 02/03/2018 19:23 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
scott12 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/11/2015
Posts: 1038
Loc: maadi Tully area
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato

The best approach is to look at all of them, then use knowledge of TC principles and experience of what's happened in the past re forecasts vs observed to come up with the most likely scenario.


Ken..That all sounds like what we know as an "Educated guess" really...

How often do we get a scenario where we can predict that a week out Cyclone Yasi is going to smash into Nth Queensland but there is so much uncertainty over most every other situation ..with so many people , resources and technology why is it so hard to predict whats going to happen a week away..why do we still have to make those guesses..?

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#1455500 - 02/03/2018 20:47 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: scott12]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5396
Originally Posted By: scott12
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato

The best approach is to look at all of them, then use knowledge of TC principles and experience of what's happened in the past re forecasts vs observed to come up with the most likely scenario.


Ken..That all sounds like what we know as an "Educated guess" really...

How often do we get a scenario where we can predict that a week out Cyclone Yasi is going to smash into Nth Queensland but there is so much uncertainty over most every other situation ..with so many people , resources and technology why is it so hard to predict whats going to happen a week away..why do we still have to make those guesses..?


Scott, "educated guess" has the connotation that every setup is virtually the same as using a dartboard when in reality, it's not.

It depends on the influences on a system's intensity and steering at the time. Many setups have high uncertainty while others low uncertainty. Yasi was a textbook example of the latter but there's also been many others where once the influences on a potential or existing TC become more clear-cut, its track and intensity have low uncertainty. You only need to look at many of the TC's that are about to get captured by an approaching upper trough to see how tight the consensus about its track becomes.
As another example of how a TC followed the general consensus of ensembles way out to 10 days, see the graphic below which I posted earlier in this thread - it's for Gita and the coloured tracks are all the forecast scenarios while the black track is what actually happened. The models were run way back on the 9th Feb only a short time after Gita was born. Considering the models had to forecast out to 10 days and the fact that it also had to forecast Gita's complete 180 followed by another curve towards NZ, I wouldn't call that an educated guess.
There's countless other similar cases as well but there's also a number of cases where the forecast scenarios were going everywhere.

Also, my previous post said nothing about how far ahead we're looking into the future. Of course, most setups are going to have high uncertainty beyond several days lead time. My post was talking in general, including the forecasting of TC's out to only a few days. Generally speaking, the closer you get to the forecast time period, the less of an "educated guess" it becomes.

But there's some setups where if both single and multi model ensembles are in good agreement that a system will form and intensity in a particular area at a forecast lead time of several days, it often does eventuate in reality.

P.S. as for this potential upcoming system currently being discussed in here, whenever various models are trying to spin up something in the Gulf or western Coral Sea more than a few days in advance but there's disagreement on the position, I like to interpret it as a "some kind of tropical disturbance signal that could either eventuate in the Gulf or Coral Sea". Given the proximity of the Gulf to the northwest Coral Sea, it only takes a slight change in the setup for a potential system to form in the Gulf instead of the western Coral Sea, or vice versa, or even both.
It's the nature of the beast in the tropics.




Edited by Ken Kato (02/03/2018 20:57)
Edit Reason: added stuff

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#1455501 - 02/03/2018 21:13 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1226
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Thanks ken
Very informative
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#1455504 - 02/03/2018 22:55 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
gawain Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2007
Posts: 465
Loc: Highgate Hill Brisvegas
Thank you Ken

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#1455506 - 03/03/2018 02:56 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 219
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: scott12
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato

The best approach is to look at all of them, then use knowledge of TC principles and experience of what's happened in the past re forecasts vs observed to come up with the most likely scenario.


Ken..That all sounds like what we know as an "Educated guess" really...

How often do we get a scenario where we can predict that a week out Cyclone Yasi is going to smash into Nth Queensland but there is so much uncertainty over most every other situation ..with so many people , resources and technology why is it so hard to predict whats going to happen a week away..why do we still have to make those guesses..?


Scott, "educated guess" has the connotation that every setup is virtually the same as using a dartboard when in reality, it's not.

It depends on the influences on a system's intensity and steering at the time. Many setups have high uncertainty while others low uncertainty. Yasi was a textbook example of the latter but there's also been many others where once the influences on a potential or existing TC become more clear-cut, its track and intensity have low uncertainty. You only need to look at many of the TC's that are about to get captured by an approaching upper trough to see how tight the consensus about its track becomes.
As another example of how a TC followed the general consensus of ensembles way out to 10 days, see the graphic below which I posted earlier in this thread - it's for Gita and the coloured tracks are all the forecast scenarios while the black track is what actually happened. The models were run way back on the 9th Feb only a short time after Gita was born. Considering the models had to forecast out to 10 days and the fact that it also had to forecast Gita's complete 180 followed by another curve towards NZ, I wouldn't call that an educated guess.
There's countless other similar cases as well but there's also a number of cases where the forecast scenarios were going everywhere.

Also, my previous post said nothing about how far ahead we're looking into the future. Of course, most setups are going to have high uncertainty beyond several days lead time. My post was talking in general, including the forecasting of TC's out to only a few days. Generally speaking, the closer you get to the forecast time period, the less of an "educated guess" it becomes.

But there's some setups where if both single and multi model ensembles are in good agreement that a system will form and intensity in a particular area at a forecast lead time of several days, it often does eventuate in reality.

P.S. as for this potential upcoming system currently being discussed in here, whenever various models are trying to spin up something in the Gulf or western Coral Sea more than a few days in advance but there's disagreement on the position, I like to interpret it as a "some kind of tropical disturbance signal that could either eventuate in the Gulf or Coral Sea". Given the proximity of the Gulf to the northwest Coral Sea, it only takes a slight change in the setup for a potential system to form in the Gulf instead of the western Coral Sea, or vice versa, or even both.
It's the nature of the beast in the tropics.






Well said Ken. Probabilistic Modelling at its best.

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#1455507 - 03/03/2018 04:49 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Thanks Ken...I am glad you cleared that up for me. Much appreciated.
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Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1455526 - 03/03/2018 13:33 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
scott12 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/11/2015
Posts: 1038
Loc: maadi Tully area
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
I like to interpret it as a "some kind of tropical disturbance signal that could either eventuate in the Gulf or Coral Sea". Given the proximity of the Gulf to the northwest Coral Sea, it only takes a slight change in the setup for a potential system to form in the Gulf instead of the western Coral Sea, or vice versa, or even both.
It's the nature of the beast in the tropics.



Thanks Ken for the explanation..

In regard to your above quote..is the difficulty in predicting where or if a system spins up along the northern flank of the country ,because ,if all the elements are present for cyclogenisis (is this what you called your "tropical disturbance signal"..?..)then its possible for a cyclone or cyclones to literally form anywhere along that low pressure trough line or monsoon trough where those conditions or "signal" exist...or is that too simplistic..?..

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#1455557 - 03/03/2018 21:54 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Access is really wanting this GoC or CS low.
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Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1455564 - 03/03/2018 23:23 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25302
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
gfs and ec push west into the NT
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#1455580 - 04/03/2018 09:37 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Access has got a coast hugger whereas Ec now has a stationary low over arnham land.
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Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1455582 - 04/03/2018 09:41 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Also water vapour shows a low in cs but satelite clouds doesnt show it
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Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1455589 - 04/03/2018 10:17 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12989
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Latest GFS has a TC hitting the Gladstone area on the 15th.
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#1455594 - 04/03/2018 11:07 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
Just a little food for thoughts a west tracker with a building, in ridge.



Edited by Rossby (04/03/2018 11:12)

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#1455599 - 04/03/2018 11:57 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
mysteriousbrad Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/10/2007
Posts: 1760
Loc: Rockhampton QLD
That would be rather nasty for Capricorn coast area!

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#1455608 - 04/03/2018 13:12 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
We need this low to effect us so ross dam can hit 100. Then everyone will be happy.
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#1455624 - 04/03/2018 14:26 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: rainthisway]
Nature's Fury Offline
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Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2188
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Access and GFS both going for good CS systems around the same time. SSTs are heating nicely along the east coast as well.

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#1455625 - 04/03/2018 14:28 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: scott12]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5396
Originally Posted By: scott12
Thanks Ken for the explanation..

In regard to your above quote..is the difficulty in predicting where or if a system spins up along the northern flank of the country ,because ,if all the elements are present for cyclogenisis (is this what you called your "tropical disturbance signal"..?..)then its possible for a cyclone or cyclones to literally form anywhere along that low pressure trough line or monsoon trough where those conditions or "signal" exist...or is that too simplistic..?..


Yep you nailed it scott.
Whenever there's a belt of general cyclonic vorticity stretched out across a monsoon trough, I find that a low or multiple embedded lows can form anywhere along that trough and they could become a TC anywhere along that trough (but only as long as other factors such as favourably low shear, etc cooperate).
An example I often notice is when a monsoon trough lies across northern waters with the "eastern end" of it lying over the western Coral Sea. Some (but not all) of the models might try to spin up a TC in the Gulf but on occasion, a TC ends up forming on the eastern end of the monsoon trough instead (where it doesn't have to "compete" with the vorticity surrounding other potential systems) with the system in the Gulf remaining a low.

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#1455632 - 04/03/2018 15:38 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Raindammit]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18549
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: Raindammit
Latest GFS has a TC hitting the Gladstone area on the 15th.


CMC is showing evolution of the same area around the Solomons and running a low the same direction as GFS ,just a day or so later and weaker. Grain of salt stuff. Simply too far away.

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#1455651 - 04/03/2018 17:19 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Should start guessing if we do get a TC, where will it hit if anywhere.

Water vapour loop still showing circulation NE of townsville, infrared satelite is showing it too...maybe something trying to organise?


Edited by rainthisway (04/03/2018 17:22)
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#1455655 - 04/03/2018 17:31 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: rainthisway]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2188
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
So there is actually some model agreement already about this low/TC forming at the same time period. Beyond that who knows.

NAVGEM and EC - Weak area of low pressure to the NW (EC) and NE Coral Sea (NAVGEM)

CMC - Weak low moving south through the Coral Sea adjacent to coast

Access - Strong cyclone moving south through Coral Sea adjacent to coast

GFS - My personal favourite. Mid-Cat strength cyclone swings into CQ and hugs the coast before exiting SEQ as a Cat 1.

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#1455657 - 04/03/2018 17:33 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Ken Kato Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5396
I'm assuming many people realise this but the Gulf system that intensifies in some of the models is the same low that's currently over inland northwest QLD (which then eventually drifts out over Gulf waters for those scenarios).

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#1455659 - 04/03/2018 17:35 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mega Offline
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Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
The GFS ensemble members are all over the shop, as to be expected so far out - some move it faster, some slower, some into the gulf, some down the coast, and others I'd imagine that have nothing at all.


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#1455660 - 04/03/2018 17:38 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2188
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
I'm assuming many people realise this but the Gulf system that intensifies in some of the models is the same low that's currently over inland northwest QLD (which then eventually drifts out over Gulf waters for those scenarios).


Wow that would be incredible.

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#1455661 - 04/03/2018 17:54 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
I'm assuming many people realise this but the Gulf system that intensifies in some of the models is the same low that's currently over inland northwest QLD (which then eventually drifts out over Gulf waters for those scenarios).


I thought that was the case. Even though BOM are expecting it to weaken. Does anyone know how they come up with for3casts...do they use one model or a combination of all of them.
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#1455664 - 04/03/2018 17:59 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Well the difference is huge when you look at the 500mb heights between EC & GFS. GFS has complete ridging through the CS which sends this bugger straight into the coast whereas EC has yet another upper trough poking up into QLD and the CS, which unless it retrogrades would keep anything off the coast and probably weaker due to higher VWS from the trough.

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#1455671 - 04/03/2018 18:42 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Mega]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 219
Originally Posted By: Mega
The GFS ensemble members are all over the shop, as to be expected so far out - some move it faster, some slower, some into the gulf, some down the coast, and others I'd imagine that have nothing at all.



Hey Mega. That's a really neat Chart. Question: what do the numbers within the Redish section east of Cairns refer too ? Are they Wind Speed perhaps ? Interested in understanding the Blue number (12) slightly north of Cairns. I'm assuming the Normalised Spread refer to Standard Deviation perhaps.

Just trying to wrap my head about the Chart.

Thanks.

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#1455674 - 04/03/2018 18:46 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: rainthisway]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5396
Originally Posted By: rainthisway
Does anyone know how they come up with for3casts...do they use one model or a combination of all of them.

For forecasting TC formation over the water, all the leading models are looked at together with knowledge of all the principles of TC formation (e.g. shear, sea surface temps, triggers, synoptics, etc).

Once a low becomes a designated system, a sophisticated piece of software is used which allows you to include a combination of up to several models of your choosing - it then calculates a consensus track of all the models you chose. The grey cone of uncertainty surrounding that track is based on a certain proportion of past forecast track errors plus the uncertainty in the analysis position. Manual adjustments can be made by the forecaster as necessary.

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#1455683 - 04/03/2018 19:10 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: MangroveJack70]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: MangroveJack70
Originally Posted By: Mega
The GFS ensemble members are all over the shop, as to be expected so far out - some move it faster, some slower, some into the gulf, some down the coast, and others I'd imagine that have nothing at all.



Hey Mega. That's a really neat Chart. Question: what do the numbers within the Redish section east of Cairns refer too ? Are they Wind Speed perhaps ? Interested in understanding the Blue number (12) slightly north of Cairns. I'm assuming the Normalised Spread refer to Standard Deviation perhaps.

Just trying to wrap my head about the Chart.

Thanks.


The numbers you see inside each orange shading correlates to an individual ensemble member, where surface pressure is used (so extreme orange shading = extremely low pressure / cyclone, blue shading = high pressure). So say you see those numbers tightly clustered right over or near each other, that means there is good agreement over that particular area between the ensembles. In the above chart, there really isn't - you can see a couple at that timeframe want a low/TC off Gladstone, one or two have held it off the coast of Cairns, and some even drift it into the gulf, which you can also see really clearly if you loop the chart on https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...8030400&fh=300. The rogue '12' you see might just be an outlier that wants higher than normal pressures from one particular ensemble member? I'm not too sure to be honest, someone else may be able to answer that.

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#1455688 - 04/03/2018 19:28 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: rainthisway
Does anyone know how they come up with for3casts...do they use one model or a combination of all of them.

For forecasting TC formation over the water, all the leading models are looked at together with knowledge of all the principles of TC formation (e.g. shear, sea surface temps, triggers, synoptics, etc).


Once a low becomes a designated system, a sophisticated piece of software is used which allows you to include a combination of up to several models of your choosing - it then calculates a consensus track of all the models you chose. The grey cone of uncertainty surrounding that track is based on a certain proportion of past forecast track errors plus the uncertainty in the analysis position. Manual adjustments can be made by the forecaster as necessary.


Thank you Ken. Your information is appreciated as usual.
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#1455697 - 04/03/2018 20:13 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Mega]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 219
Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: MangroveJack70
Originally Posted By: Mega
The GFS ensemble members are all over the shop, as to be expected so far out - some move it faster, some slower, some into the gulf, some down the coast, and others I'd imagine that have nothing at all.



Hey Mega. That's a really neat Chart. Question: what do the numbers within the Redish section east of Cairns refer too ? Are they Wind Speed perhaps ? Interested in understanding the Blue number (12) slightly north of Cairns. I'm assuming the Normalised Spread refer to Standard Deviation perhaps.

Just trying to wrap my head about the Chart.

Thanks.


The numbers you see inside each orange shading correlates to an individual ensemble member, where surface pressure is used (so extreme orange shading = extremely low pressure / cyclone, blue shading = high pressure). So say you see those numbers tightly clustered right over or near each other, that means there is good agreement over that particular area between the ensembles. In the above chart, there really isn't - you can see a couple at that timeframe want a low/TC off Gladstone, one or two have held it off the coast of Cairns, and some even drift it into the gulf, which you can also see really clearly if you loop the chart on https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...8030400&fh=300. The rogue '12' you see might just be an outlier that wants higher than normal pressures from one particular ensemble member? I'm not too sure to be honest, someone else may be able to answer that.




Ahhhh. Got it. Great explanation Mega.

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#1455699 - 04/03/2018 20:33 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: MangroveJack70]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 219
Originally Posted By: MangroveJack70
Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: MangroveJack70
Originally Posted By: Mega
The GFS ensemble members are all over the shop, as to be expected so far out - some move it faster, some slower, some into the gulf, some down the coast, and others I'd imagine that have nothing at all.



Hey Mega. That's a really neat Chart. Question: what do the numbers within the Redish section east of Cairns refer too ? Are they Wind Speed perhaps ? Interested in understanding the Blue number (12) slightly north of Cairns. I'm assuming the Normalised Spread refer to Standard Deviation perhaps.

Just trying to wrap my head about the Chart.

Thanks.


The numbers you see inside each orange shading correlates to an individual ensemble member, where surface pressure is used (so extreme orange shading = extremely low pressure / cyclone, blue shading = high pressure). So say you see those numbers tightly clustered right over or near each other, that means there is good agreement over that particular area between the ensembles. In the above chart, there really isn't - you can see a couple at that timeframe want a low/TC off Gladstone, one or two have held it off the coast of Cairns, and some even drift it into the gulf, which you can also see really clearly if you loop the chart on https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...8030400&fh=300. The rogue '12' you see might just be an outlier that wants higher than normal pressures from one particular ensemble member? I'm not too sure to be honest, someone else may be able to answer that.




Ahhhh. Got it. Great explanation Mega.


Hmmm. Quite interesting when you look for specific numbers as you suggest. So if I understand it correctly, if we have multiples of the same number in close proximity, it's suggestive of higher confidence in the Ensemble and the forecast position at that particular point in time.

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#1455704 - 04/03/2018 20:56 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 219


Hey Mega. That's a really neat Chart. Question: what do the numbers within the Redish section east of Cairns refer too ? Are they Wind Speed perhaps ? Interested in understanding the Blue number (12) slightly north of Cairns. I'm assuming the Normalised Spread refer to Standard Deviation perhaps.

Just trying to wrap my head about the Chart.

Thanks. [/quote]

The numbers you see inside each orange shading correlates to an individual ensemble member, where surface pressure is used (so extreme orange shading = extremely low pressure / cyclone, blue shading = high pressure). So say you see those numbers tightly clustered right over or near each other, that means there is good agreement over that particular area between the ensembles. In the above chart, there really isn't - you can see a couple at that timeframe want a low/TC off Gladstone, one or two have held it off the coast of Cairns, and some even drift it into the gulf, which you can also see really clearly if you loop the chart on https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...8030400&fh=300. The rogue '12' you see might just be an outlier that wants higher than normal pressures from one particular ensemble member? I'm not too sure to be honest, someone else may be able to answer that.[/quote]



Ahhhh. Got it. Great explanation Mega. [/quote]

Hmmm. Quite interesting when you look for specific numbers as you suggest. So if I understand it correctly, if we have multiples of the same number in close proximity, it's suggestive of higher confidence in the Ensemble and the forecast position at that particular point in time. [/quote]

That's cool. Had a look at the system over on the Indian Ocean toward Africa (102 hours) and it makes sense. Thanks for sharing.

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#1455710 - 04/03/2018 21:15 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
I didn't really make it clear in my above post - but the numbers represent the pressure that particular ensemble is is showing at that time. So in that chart, two ensembles show a 974hpa TC off Gladstone, (74), two 971's off Cairns, (71), O3s and 04s (1003hpa, 1004hpa) across the top end etc. If there were a heap of, say 971's (71s) clustered together then that'd mean good agreement between ensembles that a strong TC is in that area in that point in time.

I really like to look at ensemble spread like this and not just single model runs because it gives a better idea of the potential factors that could come into play at that particular time, but that's just me.

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#1455711 - 04/03/2018 21:28 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Mega]
bundybear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/12/2010
Posts: 2256
Loc: Between Bundy and Gladstone
Originally Posted By: Mega
I didn't really make it clear in my above post - but the numbers represent the pressure that particular ensemble is is showing at that time. So in that chart, two ensembles show a 974hpa TC off Gladstone, (74), two 971's off Cairns, (71), O3s and 04s (1003hpa, 1004hpa) across the top end etc. If there were a heap of, say 971's (71s) clustered together then that'd mean good agreement between ensembles that a strong TC is in that area in that point in time.


I do not like any of them to be honest that show any wet weather system heading my way. I am absolutely sodden. Any wet weather system is going to mean that I won't be going anywhere for a month again. Wet and windy means chances are high my power will be gone for a good week. So sorry, no wet and windy things are allowed. grin

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#1455725 - 04/03/2018 23:48 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: MangroveJack70]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5396
Originally Posted By: MangroveJack70
Hmmm. Quite interesting when you look for specific numbers as you suggest. So if I understand it correctly, if we have multiples of the same number in close proximity, it's suggestive of higher confidence in the Ensemble and the forecast position at that particular point in time.

Another useful way of visualising confidence in an ensemble or lack thereof is to look at probability maps.

The probabilities simply represent the percentage of that ensemble's forecast members meeting a given threshold. In the examples below, it shows the percentage of the EC ensemble's members forecasting a TC (using a system created by the ECMWF to try and identify warm cored tropical systems meeting TC-like criteria) for the 48hrs up to next Saturday night, and for the 48hrs up to the forecast day that Mega's chart was for (albeit using a different ensemble).

The higher the percentages, the higher the confidence in that particular ensemble.
Note that it's normal for the probabilities to appear modest at long ranges but that's only because of the naturally higher uncertainty that's common at those longer ranges:





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#1455742 - 05/03/2018 09:40 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5197
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
In terms of confidence of something coming together, GFS has been impressively consistent across the last four runs (clickable for the full image):









Obviously a long way out and small differences in initial position can have a magnifying impact on final location down the track, so picking landfall if anything does come together is way too far out (for example the latest 18z run shows an upper trough approaching from the west...the run does not go as far out yet as to show what that means, but my guess would be increased likelihood of missing the east coast altogether), but certainly a decent and consistent signal at this stage from GFS. Now going to wait and watch it disappear on the 00z run crazy

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#1455781 - 05/03/2018 14:52 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3524
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Da Media got wind of not 1 but 2 cyclones next week. Good grief, I can already see the armageddon headlines.

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#1455791 - 05/03/2018 15:50 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12989
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Latest GFS has it crossing near Port Douglas. Still early days yet.
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#1455795 - 05/03/2018 16:07 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
ol mate Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/03/2010
Posts: 1141
Loc: Ingham, North Qld
11 Days out on latest GFS. I'll start paying attention when its 5 days out. No doubt news papers and our southern FB friends will dish-out clickbait online in the meantime!
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#1455799 - 05/03/2018 16:28 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: ol mate]
gympieweather Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/09/2002
Posts: 143
Loc: Veteran Weather Station, Queen...
Originally Posted By: ol mate
11 Days out on latest GFS. I'll start paying attention when its 5 days out. No doubt news papers and our southern FB friends will dish-out clickbait online in the meantime!


Can't believe some of the stuff that the media grab on to, especially today's news story in the Cairns Post and others...

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#1455811 - 05/03/2018 17:54 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Mega]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 219
Originally Posted By: Mega
I didn't really make it clear in my above post - but the numbers represent the pressure that particular ensemble is is showing at that time. So in that chart, two ensembles show a 974hpa TC off Gladstone, (74), two 971's off Cairns, (71), O3s and 04s (1003hpa, 1004hpa) across the top end etc. If there were a heap of, say 971's (71s) clustered together then that'd mean good agreement between ensembles that a strong TC is in that area in that point in time.

I really like to look at ensemble spread like this and not just single model runs because it gives a better idea of the potential factors that could come into play at that particular time, but that's just me.



You my friend (Mega), have articulated that very very well indeed. Thanks for the followup info hey.

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#1455813 - 05/03/2018 17:59 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 219
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: MangroveJack70
Hmmm. Quite interesting when you look for specific numbers as you suggest. So if I understand it correctly, if we have multiples of the same number in close proximity, it's suggestive of higher confidence in the Ensemble and the forecast position at that particular point in time.

Another useful way of visualising confidence in an ensemble or lack thereof is to look at probability maps.

The probabilities simply represent the percentage of that ensemble's forecast members meeting a given threshold. In the examples below, it shows the percentage of the EC ensemble's members forecasting a TC (using a system created by the ECMWF to try and identify warm cored tropical systems meeting TC-like criteria) for the 48hrs up to next Saturday night, and for the 48hrs up to the forecast day that Mega's chart was for (albeit using a different ensemble).

The higher the percentages, the higher the confidence in that particular ensemble.
Note that it's normal for the probabilities to appear modest at long ranges but that's only because of the naturally higher uncertainty that's common at those longer ranges:









Thanks for that info Ken. Stats are my thing so that makes a lot of sense to me. smile

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#1455815 - 05/03/2018 18:00 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: KevD]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 219
Originally Posted By: KevD
In terms of confidence of something coming together, GFS has been impressively consistent across the last four runs (clickable for the full image):









Obviously a long way out and small differences in initial position can have a magnifying impact on final location down the track, so picking landfall if anything does come together is way too far out (for example the latest 18z run shows an upper trough approaching from the west...the run does not go as far out yet as to show what that means, but my guess would be increased likelihood of missing the east coast altogether), but certainly a decent and consistent signal at this stage from GFS. Now going to wait and watch it disappear on the 00z run crazy



smile

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#1455817 - 05/03/2018 18:05 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: MangroveJack70]
Hailin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 938
Loc: Moranbah/Glenella
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Monday 5 March 2018
for the period until midnight CST Thursday 8 March 2018.
Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:
A tropical low over western Queensland is forecast to move north or northwest during the coming days and may move into or near the southern Gulf of Carpentaria from Tuesday or Wednesday.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Tuesday: Very Low.
Wednesday: Very Low.
Thursday: Low.

In the longer term, the monsoon trough is becoming more active in the Gulf of Carpentaria and a tropical low may lie within the trough.

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#1455826 - 05/03/2018 18:45 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71







00z's

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#1455840 - 05/03/2018 20:43 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: scott12]
scott12 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/11/2015
Posts: 1038
Loc: maadi Tully area
Originally Posted By: scott12
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
I like to interpret it as a "some kind of tropical disturbance signal that could either eventuate in the Gulf or Coral Sea". Given the proximity of the Gulf to the northwest Coral Sea, it only takes a slight change in the setup for a potential system to form in the Gulf instead of the western Coral Sea, or vice versa, or even both.
It's the nature of the beast in the tropics.



Thanks Ken for the explanation..

In regard to your above quote..is the difficulty in predicting where or if a system spins up along the northern flank of the country ,because ,if all the elements are present for cyclogenisis (is this what you called your "tropical disturbance signal"..?..)then its possible for a cyclone or cyclones to literally form anywhere along that low pressure trough line or monsoon trough where those conditions or "signal" exist...or is that too simplistic..?..


Thanks again Ken..I much appreciate you putting weather stuff into pretty simple terms that even an amateur like myself can understand...

I'm still a bit dubious with the models though..I don't know how it can be justified to release models 7-10 days and more into the future when as you showed the probabilities can be quite low.....particularly at this time of year in the tropics when things can change quite significantly between one run and the next..I also wonder about the wisdom of media outlets and facebook weather guys cherrypicking future synoptic images without mentioning those percentages ..it just all seems so wrong..!

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#1455842 - 05/03/2018 20:53 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5396
No probs. It goes back to the whole "not all setups are as equally unpredictable as each other" principle.

Some setups have significantly higher than normal probabilities at longer ranges so when that happens, it's hard to ignore and it does provide a useful heads-up to warrant further monitoring. But others have borderline probabilities due to less favourable ingredients so it's close to speculation territory.

As for the media, well you only need to look at this morning's hyped headlines in many of the regional online newspaper facebook pages and you'll be able to guess what my opinion is of the whole clickbait factor on many media fb pages these days.

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#1455845 - 05/03/2018 21:44 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4145
Loc: El Arish
Um...Yeah....... crazy

Quote:
'It's looking scary': Massive CYCLONE to hit Queensland after severe weather event dumped a month's worth of rain in two days


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-...ebook_Australia
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#1455860 - 06/03/2018 01:54 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25302
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
utter rubbish isnt it? News Ltd papers were running this rubbish all day too.
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2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

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#1455886 - 06/03/2018 09:02 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 305
Loc: Golden Beach
Can anyone help explain why WATL has the rainfall up around Cape York stopping right on the coast. The Cape looks like a wedge placed between heavy rain on both sides. Any explanation appreciated

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#1455889 - 06/03/2018 09:09 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
BrisWeatherNerd Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/07/2012
Posts: 936
Loc: Weather Nerd Central, Kedron, ...
Note how the papers don't go crazy reporting on his as yet unrecognised prediction of a January cyclone hitting Brisbane.
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#1455892 - 06/03/2018 09:19 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Snapper22lb]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5396
Originally Posted By: Snapper22lb
Can anyone help explain why WATL has the rainfall up around Cape York stopping right on the coast. The Cape looks like a wedge placed between heavy rain on both sides. Any explanation appreciated

I suspect one of the reasons is that ACCESS-R (which is one of the 8 models in the ensemble used by WATL) has a long well-known tendency for excessively cutting back precip over land during the overnight hours while maintaining it over water (this almost always results in an unrealistically sharp cutoff of precip that exactly matches the shape of the coastline).
Although convective precip does typically ease over land during the overnight hours, ACCESS-R takes it too far.
But this is exacerbated even more in WATL from the fact that nocturnal convection and precip is common over water in the tropics during the wet season.

On another note, here's the latest suggestion from the EC ensemble re its range of scenarios for tropical storm tracks colour-coded by intensity for the period within the next 10 days.

Anything from light blue and above = Cat 1 or greater intensity (green is weaker than Cat 1).
The round markers are forecast time intervals.




Edited by Ken Kato (06/03/2018 09:23)

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#1455898 - 06/03/2018 09:58 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Something seems to be a miss on recent runs - ACCESS-G has gone cold, EC operational barely has anything and GFS has a pathetic midget. Only early days I suppose but when EC op isn't excited then neither am I...

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#1455899 - 06/03/2018 10:03 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5396
The Gulf is always a tricky place - surrounding on 3 sides by land so even a small shift of a system or forecast error can make the difference between a major TC and just a weak low.

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#1455901 - 06/03/2018 10:19 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Originally Posted By: @_Yasified_shak
Um...Yeah....... crazy

Quote:
'It's looking scary': Massive CYCLONE to hit Queensland after severe weather event dumped a month's worth of rain in two days


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-...ebook_Australia



That David Taylor used to criticize higgins for making claims like this...now je is doing it.
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#1455902 - 06/03/2018 10:26 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Mick10]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4145
Loc: El Arish

I went for a walk last night as i left my phone down near the creek, i noticed a trail of big black ants carrying eggs. The last time i saw these ants move was to higher ground (only a few meters away and they have done it twice that i have noticed) just before the area flooded.Tonight they were moving a good 80-100 mtrs away up the hill to an area that doesn't flood at all. Maybe they expect a big flood is coming?
They are a black ant with orange legs that seem to have their abdomen pointed upwards.
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#1455909 - 06/03/2018 11:35 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
I really dunno if ants moving is reliable anymore. Ive seen them moving high when no rain happens and moving eggs after rain.
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#1455926 - 06/03/2018 14:17 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 305
Loc: Golden Beach
Thanks for explanation re Cape York/WATL Ken. It is very strange and even occurs during a solid NW feed.Forecasts up that way also seem particularly conservative and are often exceeded. It is hard to find a forum to discuss the weather up that way as anything north of Mareeba rarely gets a mention on WZ. Cheers

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#1455934 - 06/03/2018 16:04 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
I think that Low for CS was another Model tease.

I don't think we have much chance of anything significant in the next 2 weeks. Hayden Walker and David Taylor are gonna look like fools.


Edited by rainthisway (06/03/2018 16:12)
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#1455940 - 06/03/2018 17:12 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
bundybear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/12/2010
Posts: 2256
Loc: Between Bundy and Gladstone
Originally Posted By: @_Yasified_shak

I went for a walk last night as i left my phone down near the creek, i noticed a trail of big black ants carrying eggs. The last time i saw these ants move was to higher ground (only a few meters away and they have done it twice that i have noticed) just before the area flooded.Tonight they were moving a good 80-100 mtrs away up the hill to an area that doesn't flood at all. Maybe they expect a big flood is coming?
They are a black ant with orange legs that seem to have their abdomen pointed upwards.


I noticed the big black ants on the move here yesterday evening. Pity they are going up the gate post that has the latch on it and not the one that holds the gate. They hurt when they bite.

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#1455948 - 06/03/2018 18:02 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Mega]
Squeako_88 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2005
Posts: 458
Loc: Elimbah 4516
Originally Posted By: Mega
Something seems to be a miss on recent runs - ACCESS-G has gone cold, EC operational barely has anything and GFS has a pathetic midget. Only early days I suppose but when EC op isn't excited then neither am I...


I say it's probably due to the Gulf Low/Cyclone that is expected to sit in the Gulf for a number of days. Not allowing the future Coral Sea low to develop as the Gulf Low will have access to all the moisture feed from the North and not allowing the coral sea low to have any.
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#1455952 - 06/03/2018 18:16 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Ive seen two cyclones close to each other before so dont think that is the reason.

MJO is not a player this time around. Thats the last chance for that to make a difference this wet season.


Edited by rainthisway (06/03/2018 18:19)
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#1455960 - 06/03/2018 18:39 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Squeako_88 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2005
Posts: 458
Loc: Elimbah 4516
True about 2 cyclones being close together but that will be more favourable if there a strong Monsoon Trough able to feed both with adequate inflow to both. But, there isn't really monsoon to help with both. We need is for the Gulf low to move over land and weaken enough to allow the coral sea low to have a better chance to develop further. Or it'll just be a troughy like system like what EC is currently suggesting.
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#1455962 - 06/03/2018 19:09 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 219
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
The Gulf is always a tricky place - surrounding on 3 sides by land so even a small shift of a system or forecast error can make the difference between a major TC and just a weak low.



smile

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#1455963 - 06/03/2018 19:12 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: rainthisway]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 219
Originally Posted By: rainthisway
Ive seen two cyclones close to each other before so dont think that is the reason.

MJO is not a player this time around. Thats the last chance for that to make a difference this wet season.



I wouldn't write the MJO off yet. We still have to the end of April and there's a long time between drinks. It's a very active GOC / Coral Sea / Indian Ocean at the moment.

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#1455967 - 06/03/2018 19:41 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Squeako_88
Originally Posted By: Mega
Something seems to be a miss on recent runs - ACCESS-G has gone cold, EC operational barely has anything and GFS has a pathetic midget. Only early days I suppose but when EC op isn't excited then neither am I...


I say it's probably due to the Gulf Low/Cyclone that is expected to sit in the Gulf for a number of days. Not allowing the future Coral Sea low to develop as the Gulf Low will have access to all the moisture feed from the North and not allowing the coral sea low to have any.


Big high coming in across southern states right now appears to drive dry air northwards again too which could become an issue for development if it hangs around too long. Such a shame, the upper levels become really conducive from about next week onwards as well to be able to sustain a TC - something you don't get many chances at in the CS these days.

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#1455982 - 06/03/2018 21:23 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71
00Z's Global models within ten days cyclone forecasts.






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#1456004 - 07/03/2018 05:28 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Rossby]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 219
Originally Posted By: Rossby
00Z's Global models within ten days cyclone forecasts.













Sooooo cool !

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#1456057 - 07/03/2018 13:09 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4145
Loc: El Arish
Originally Posted By: @_Yasified_shak

I went for a walk last night as i left my phone down near the creek, i noticed a trail of big black ants carrying eggs. The last time i saw these ants move was to higher ground (only a few meters away and they have done it twice that i have noticed) just before the area flooded.Tonight they were moving a good 80-100 mtrs away up the hill to an area that doesn't flood at all. Maybe they expect a big flood is coming?
They are a black ant with orange legs that seem to have their abdomen pointed upwards.


They must have sensed something as last night that area went right under, the highest it has been for over 12 months.
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#1456070 - 07/03/2018 14:33 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
There is no scientific evidence Ants know when rain is coming. Evidence shows there very active after rain but before...the evidence is just not there to support this Myth.
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#1456071 - 07/03/2018 14:36 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1226
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
I remenber in townsviile. The ants climbing walls wtc just before heavy rain
Bit like in NZ. Dogs cats and other animals doing weird stuff hours before an earthquake


Edited by tsunami (07/03/2018 14:38)
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#1456073 - 07/03/2018 14:53 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1226
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Any thoughts on cyclone Hola. Currently cat 2. Intensifying and heading west from vanuatu. Possibly just north of Newcaladonia
Will it steam to Qld or head south to NZ again
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#1456077 - 07/03/2018 15:24 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: tsunami]
Alexis Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/12/2012
Posts: 97
Loc: reunion island
Originally Posted By: tsunami
Any thoughts on cyclone Hola. Currently cat 2. Intensifying and heading west from vanuatu. Possibly just north of Newcaladonia
Will it steam to Qld or head south to NZ again

JTWC forecasting an extremely rapid intensification, 75kts in 48h! The loyalties islands are up for a beating!

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#1456087 - 07/03/2018 17:55 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: tsunami]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5096
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Originally Posted By: tsunami
Any thoughts on cyclone Hola. Currently cat 2. Intensifying and heading west from vanuatu. Possibly just north of Newcaladonia
Will it steam to Qld or head south to NZ again


It's one for the fish.

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#1456090 - 07/03/2018 18:23 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: tsunami]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Originally Posted By: tsunami
I remenber in townsviile. The ants climbing walls wtc just before heavy rain
Bit like in NZ. Dogs cats and other animals doing weird stuff hours before an earthquake


Ive seen Ants climbing walls in the middle of dry periods with no rain on way for weeks. I did my research because I used to believe in Ants but there is absokutely no evidence to support the myth. The more I watch them the more I realise its true. Before the big rains we just had the Ants acted no different to any other days. It wasn't until after the rain they started becoming over active.
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#1456091 - 07/03/2018 18:24 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: tsunami]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Originally Posted By: tsunami
Any thoughts on cyclone Hola. Currently cat 2. Intensifying and heading west from vanuatu. Possibly just north of Newcaladonia
Will it steam to Qld or head south to NZ again


Its one for the graveyard apparently.
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Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1456103 - 07/03/2018 19:57 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: tsunami]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 219
Originally Posted By: tsunami
Any thoughts on cyclone Hola. Currently cat 2. Intensifying and heading west from vanuatu. Possibly just north of Newcaladonia
Will it steam to Qld or head south to NZ again



Multiple Models forecast it taking a south-easterly track as it moves toward New Caledonia. Subsequent Model runs support this as well. A High pressure system to the west of the system essentially assists in steering Hola to the south, as do the adjacent High / Lows.

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#1456116 - 07/03/2018 21:48 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1226
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Bugger
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#1456123 - 08/03/2018 00:05 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25302
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
be watching the NW coral sea at this stage anyway.
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Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

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#1456126 - 08/03/2018 01:10 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: rainthisway]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5396
Originally Posted By: rainthisway
Ive seen Ants climbing walls in the middle of dry periods with no rain on way for weeks. I did my research because I used to believe in Ants but there is absokutely no evidence to support the myth. The more I watch them the more I realise its true. Before the big rains we just had the Ants acted no different to any other days. It wasn't until after the rain they started becoming over active.

Yep that happens here too - it's usually either only AFTER rain's fallen that they get really busy here (not just one species but multiple species... and not just scurrying around but also things like carrying eggs, etc)... or when it's hot.
Very reactive rather than proactive.

There's been many times here as well when I've observed much busier than normal ant activity over a number of days but instead of any major rainfall occurring within the next 30 days, nothing's happened or it's even become drier than normal.

I suspect many people remember the times when busy ant activity was followed by rain but never all the other times that nothing happened after busy ant activity.
Another factor is how much of a time window you're willing to allow for significant rain to occur after busy any activity. If you extend that time window out far enough (for example, a few weeks), of course it's eventually going to rain simply through sheer odds regardless of what ants have been doing.

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#1456129 - 08/03/2018 04:44 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Mick10]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 219
Originally Posted By: Mick10
be watching the NW coral sea at this stage anyway.



smile

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#1456136 - 08/03/2018 07:59 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Squeako_88 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2005
Posts: 458
Loc: Elimbah 4516
Looks like this (Scary Cyclone) for next week aka weak trough system is going to wash out just off the central/capricornia coast with just an increase in coastal showers. How boring! But, this morning's EC develops a slightly more interesting low off the NE coast as soon as the Gulf low is out of the picture.

Re: ants, I agree with Ken when it comes to nature they are reactive to the current conditions and their natural behavior cycles. When it come's to plants they flower either from length of day or all year round if enough adequate nutrients have been provided. Eg past rain event and not an indication of a near future rain event.
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#1456209 - 08/03/2018 16:10 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
To who ever said dont count the MJO out yet...it appears to be restrengthing as it approaches the MC
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Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1456216 - 08/03/2018 17:22 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: rainthisway]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 219
Originally Posted By: rainthisway
To who ever said dont count the MJO out yet...it appears to be restrengthing as it approaches the MC


To be perfectly honest, i'd done some research in this space and I was reasonably confident we'd see the MJO once if not twice before the end of April. If you have the time, take a look at the MJO data from past years and correlate it against against the major Tropical Cyclones. There's one or two surprises in there.

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#1456261 - 08/03/2018 21:23 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Dan101 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/03/2011
Posts: 312
Loc: Mackay, QLD
(Re: Solomon Islands system) EC gradually starting to throw some more interesting scenarios out in the ensemble member storm tracks... A couple (about 6) showing slightly more intense systems with coastal impacts. Has been trending this way for the past few runs. Still only a small percentage of members, but something to keep us interested!



Probability of a tropical cyclone within 48hrs from next Friday night 7pm (16th March). Probability still <10% but gives a rough indication of possible crossing locations IF it was to reach cyclone status.


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#1456264 - 08/03/2018 21:49 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23688
Loc: Townsville
id bet on at least a strong tropical low hitting between Tsv and Sarina in the next 10 days.

EC monthlies have been onto it for 2 weeks. now its appearing on determanistics.
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#1456272 - 08/03/2018 23:31 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
nimbuss1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/11/2013
Posts: 298
Loc: Kamerunga, Cairns
The weather is changing rapidly or the bureau is stuffing up.........both maybe....
Todays MT forecast....
Few of the old folk say.....like the old days...30 40 years ago!
hmmmmm..............
1400 today ,4 day forecast vs 1700 forecast.....(synoptic charts)

1400 4day..
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml
1700 chart...
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/synoptic_col.shtml


Edited by nimbuss1 (08/03/2018 23:33)

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#1456273 - 08/03/2018 23:37 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: nimbuss1]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5396
Originally Posted By: nimbuss1
The weather is changing rapidly or the bureau is stuffing up.........both maybe....
Todays MT forecast....
Few of the old folk say.....like the old days...30 40 years ago!
hmmmmm..............
1400 today ,4 day forecast vs 1700 forecast.....(synoptic charts)

1400 4day..
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml
1700 chart...
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/synoptic_col.shtml


Not sure what you pointing out there? The first chart in the 4-day MSLP forecast charts is for tomorrow while the last chart (the analysis chart) is for this afternoon and not a forecast....

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#1456274 - 08/03/2018 23:44 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
nimbuss1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/11/2013
Posts: 298
Loc: Kamerunga, Cairns
Correct me if im wrong Ken, but is there a difference in MT plotting?
And if so, its quite an unpredictable time??
Love tropical times in the far north!

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#1456288 - 09/03/2018 06:54 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
Squeako_88 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2005
Posts: 458
Loc: Elimbah 4516
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
id bet on at least a strong tropical low hitting between Tsv and Sarina in the next 10 days.

EC monthlies have been onto it for 2 weeks. now its appearing on determanistics.


EC is looking promising this morning!
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#1456290 - 09/03/2018 07:19 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1226
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Gfs has a system just off SEqld wed 14th
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#1456306 - 09/03/2018 09:27 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
SBT Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2007
Posts: 14224
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
I will believe it at the 5 day mark. Until then its pure fantasy to posit when or were they may or may not form.

That we will get a couple of lows is a given, that they form into anything is a remote possibility at this stage.
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2018 Total 770mm






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#1456314 - 09/03/2018 09:52 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5096
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
EC (Deterministic) even more interesting. A weak low hitting the CQ coast and then a cyclone hitting the far north towards the end of the run. But really all this says is that given how much things have chopped and changed over the last few days, the models have not got the slightest idea whatsoever atm. Fun to watch but amazingly bad right now. Must be a very complex environment up there.


Edited by Brett Guy (09/03/2018 09:52)

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#1456320 - 09/03/2018 10:17 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3524
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Have to get lucky sometimes, GFS was onto something happening around the 14th last Sunday, hope someone gets a good show.

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#1456325 - 09/03/2018 10:24 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4481
Loc: Brisbane
EC and GFS are now a lot closer together at 5 days than they have been for weeks.

Gives me a greater degree of confidence we will see something off SE or Central QLD in the coming week.

Latest GFS has shifted a little further East though.
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1456326 - 09/03/2018 10:24 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5396
Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
Have to get lucky sometimes, GFS was onto something happening around the 14th last Sunday, hope someone gets a good show.

So were other models though. GFS is absolutely TERRIBLE at long range compared to some of the other models. I wish it wasn't the case but it is. Of course it'll get some setups right earlier than others through sheer odds and it shouldn't be totally excluded (the 1 out of 5 setups it does nail at long ranges then causes it to become the God model in some people's eyes) but I do wish it was a lot better.

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#1456334 - 09/03/2018 10:57 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3305
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
then causes it to become the God model in some people's eyes)


must be what the G stands for.

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#1456335 - 09/03/2018 11:11 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3524
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Yes Ken, wish GFS would do better as most other models but they all have a similarity to a dart board.

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#1456368 - 09/03/2018 15:21 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
If EC gets it right. 3 tl or tcs will effect the state 1 in gulf and 2 in cs. Good times.
_________________________
Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1456402 - 09/03/2018 18:04 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
CycloneTim Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/01/2015
Posts: 29
Loc: Mackay
I reckon a cat 1-2 crossing bloomsbury give or take 50 k's

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#1456414 - 09/03/2018 19:16 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71




https://i.imgur.com/DSNI6aG.png

*Removed enormous picture, click on the link instead.*


Edited by Raindammit (10/03/2018 08:14)

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#1456426 - 09/03/2018 21:19 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 1898
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Hey Rossby smile ever tried resizing your images before posting them ?
Real pain in the arse to look at when they load.
Interesting none the less.

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#1456432 - 09/03/2018 21:49 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: marakai]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2498
Loc: Chillagoe
Originally Posted By: marakai
Hey Rossby smile ever tried resizing your images before posting them ?
Real pain in the arse to look at when they load.
Interesting none the less.


Yikes, can't see them on a 13 inch screen, they go right off the page to the right and below.
Interesting though, thanks.

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#1456433 - 09/03/2018 22:03 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3524
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Bit of finger work but looks fine on a stupid phone, nice graphics.
Still not the result we looking for.

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#1456434 - 09/03/2018 22:04 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3234
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Seems abit dramatic for a 5th post..

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#1456440 - 09/03/2018 22:31 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3524
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
YeA, waaay too much fingerwork for a Fri night.
Go the Cows!


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (09/03/2018 22:32)

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#1456447 - 09/03/2018 23:13 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Dan101 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/03/2011
Posts: 312
Loc: Mackay, QLD
1st world problems.... Great images Rossby! Thereís no minimum post tally requirement for posting informative graphics smile

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#1456449 - 09/03/2018 23:22 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 1898
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Not saying Rossby's post's are not informative Dan,
just that they are a tad painful to look at in their current form is all.
+ I doub't there are many Third world viewer's of the current format in any case either.
So it is all relevant.

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#1456453 - 10/03/2018 00:01 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1226
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Its fantastic to see someone take so much time to post info
_________________________
Wynnum SE Brisbane

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#1456457 - 10/03/2018 00:55 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: tsunami]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2188
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Thanks for the useful images. Haven't seen them yet and I've been following things closely.

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#1456467 - 10/03/2018 07:50 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3234
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Just seems odd to post only graphics with no explanation and only a handful of posts and images that anyone can view on a website.

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#1456470 - 10/03/2018 08:10 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2498
Loc: Chillagoe
Please don't anyone quote them again, or we'll have the next page too wide and ruined too.

Hi Rossby, welcome to Weatherzone Forums.

Newbies are allowed to make mistakes.

The problem for me is that they're so big I can only view a quarter of an image at a time, on my phone; and maybe a third of an image on my 13" laptop. Impossible to view an image in entirety.

The whole page gets pushed excessively wide, so every post after that we have to scroll sideways, & it becomes difficult to read.

It may be different on a large monitor, but there's a lot of swiping going on for those of us with smaller screens, for every post on that particular page.

Cheers, J.


Edited by cold@28 (10/03/2018 08:17)

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#1456472 - 10/03/2018 08:11 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Sillybanter Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 17/03/2017
Posts: 34
Loc: Toowoomba
Great post Rossby, thanks for the information.

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#1456476 - 10/03/2018 08:17 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3234
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Ive been on this forum long enough that this Rossby is not a newbie...

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#1456477 - 10/03/2018 08:18 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Steve O]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2498
Loc: Chillagoe
Originally Posted By: Steve O
Ive been on this forum long enough that this Rossby is not a newbie...

New to actually posting then?
(Joined 3 February & 5 posts.)


Edited by cold@28 (10/03/2018 08:22)

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#1456480 - 10/03/2018 08:34 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1226
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Cricky guys
Give the person a break
They are new stop picking on them or theyll leave or wont post again
I say well done for the graphs
_________________________
Wynnum SE Brisbane

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#1456483 - 10/03/2018 08:45 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2498
Loc: Chillagoe
I have never forgotten asking what everyone thought was a stupid question when I was a newbie. I asked a mod how to delete my account... That was in the days just after Yasi, and it's still rare that I post in the cyclone threads.

So Rossby, keep posting, we're interested, but please resize your images.

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#1456486 - 10/03/2018 09:01 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]