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#1436410 - 09/10/2017 08:19 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: S .O.]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3294
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: S .O.
Mike and Co .

I simply meant that once the upwelling and resultant overly strong Equatorial trades kicked in that this would heighten the Sea height differential between 10-15 Nth Warm SST anomalies and the lower sea heights from divergence of the lower sea height at the constantly displaced upwelling site .

Its the same trigger that sees the WPWP find its level when the trades ease in a lateral WEs5 East correction . In this case its Nth to South and Sth to a North .
The humboldt / Peru current is a given but without supporting wind currents to the NE the actual sea height differential from both the temperature differential of the Ocean and the resultant Pressure gradient of the aloft Atmospherics resulting in sea heights creating a flow to the SW . The coriolis / Ekman is a wind driven phenom , but in this case the water move,ent flow is a sec8ndary reaction and the flow is more of gravitational leveling .


You push the water away from the equator and it piles up to the north. Since its piled up to the north it wants to flow back to the equator. Is that what you are saying? But nothing much will flow back while its being pushed away. But if the winds stop pushing as they did for a little while recently the water suddenly rushes back.

One factor in mixing of the warmer water to the north would be the eddies between the counter-equatorial current flowing west to east to the north of the equator, and the equatorial current flowing east to west These eddies have looked quite strong on satellite SST charts. I do suspect that both currents may be enhanced recently.

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#1436412 - 09/10/2017 08:57 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2604
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: Kino

plus the higher pressure indicates a suppressed atmosphere, not one conducive to wwbs.


Pressure in west Pacific is currently below average

(also see the high pressure Mega mentioned)


Isn't that a model run? Added to that it clearly shows that ridge building to the SE pushing into the tropics as I showed.


Edited by Kino (09/10/2017 08:58)

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#1436420 - 09/10/2017 10:07 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
S .O. Offline
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Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 1540
Loc: Southern Victoria
No Mike .
No where have I said that there is an air flow from the SW.
This is in the doldrums .
The counter current is feeding into the area NE of the Galapagos from the direct west of that location .
You know this , your just trying to breakdown what Ive written .
Im saying the sea height differential of the adjacent cool and warm anomalies and resultant high and low air pressure anolamies directly aloft of these two radically seperate zones .
Would result in the sea height being higher to the NE of where the ENSO upwelling combining with a supercharged Humboldt Peru current , will see a flow of surface water SW towards this fast moving surface layer . Its a resultant of both .
This sees the violence of the Eddies that can clearly be seen , so you have the cool waters being wind West near the Equator , but on the North edge you have war, waters injecting into that zone just west of the Galapagos junction . But also as this propogates west
, its pulling in the countercurrent which short cycles that and increases the Northern reach into the countercurrent zone .
The net effect will see a heightened / faster rise in WPWP SSTs as the northern boundary of pre charges actual water temps being driven west .
My main point is once this coupling is in place the momentum and increased strength in the entire Pacific ocean gyre is too much for any forecast WWB to slow its advance .
Once the Sth Pacific inflow reached a critical point the Nth Pacific oceanic SST would not hold up to the flow . Its inevitable that the momentum started would drag the Nth PAC ( NE Pacific) warm anolamies down by dragging them into the Maelstrom .
No more uncoupled system .


Edited by S .O. (09/10/2017 10:15)
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#1436432 - 09/10/2017 11:53 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mega]
_Johnno_ Offline
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Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1745
Yes saw EC Mega.. Groundhog day that large high just sits there at least 10 days probably more. Should start to turn things in the north east Pacific.
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#1436477 - 09/10/2017 19:15 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 202
Thanks S.O for the fuller explanation - cant say I follow it all at this precise moment but it's useful for further digging.

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#1436478 - 09/10/2017 19:22 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: _Johnno_]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 202
Originally Posted By: _Johnno_
Yes saw EC Mega.. Groundhog day that large high just sits there at least 10 days probably more. Should start to turn things in the north east Pacific.


Interesting though that it doesn't rate yet in the blocking forecast here
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/block.shtml
Maybe cpc data for the index is lagging current conditions

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#1436485 - 09/10/2017 20:08 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
S .O. Offline
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Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 1540
Loc: Southern Victoria
Sorry Snowbooby , I got distracted with work whilst trying to edit the grammar & spelling mistakes out of it . I sincerely apologise to you all as I often dont Have time to spare to post at a level which is easily comprehended .
Fat f8ngers dint Help either .
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#1436500 - 10/10/2017 08:14 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3294
Loc: Buderim
Big NH high pressure. Big MJO forecast. Big area of low pressure anomalies in the tropics after over a year of mostly high pressure anomalies.

Changes afoot?

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#1436504 - 10/10/2017 08:35 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2604
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Big NH high pressure. Big MJO forecast. Big area of low pressure anomalies in the tropics after over a year of mostly high pressure anomalies.

Changes afoot?


Big MJO? Maybe for Maritime continent; I note that once it makes it here (*if* it does the last few forecasts have been bullish and petered out) once it hits the western pacific it dramatically falls back to weak/indiscernible which will have NO impact re: wwb.

As for "big area of low pressure"? That map is for *one* day? Surely you're not contending that ONE days weather a climate driver makes?

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#1436512 - 10/10/2017 09:19 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3294
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Kino


Big MJO? Maybe for Maritime continent; I note that once it makes it here (*if* it does the last few forecasts have been bullish and petered out) once it hits the western pacific it dramatically falls back to weak/indiscernible which will have NO impact re: wwb.


Some models show it falling back a long way. Others still have it quite strong in western Pacific. WWB are tricky things and can emerge even under a weak MJO signal. Maratime continent is potential WWB territory - the boundary of the edge of the Pacific ocean is just north of Darwin

Originally Posted By: Kino

As for "big area of low pressure"? That map is for *one* day? Surely you're not contending that ONE days weather a climate driver makes?


Just a couple days ago you were showing a *one* day map of *windstreams* to try and claim that Pacific ridge was strong and would block an MJO which isn't due for a couple weeks, even though presure anomalies in the area as I showed you were below average.

When a one day map shows something quite outside of anything I've seen for the last year or so it would suggest implications for climate drivers.

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#1436546 - 10/10/2017 13:31 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
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Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2835
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Latest EC weeklies look to have A neg SAM look to them.









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#1436597 - 10/10/2017 20:18 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
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Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2338
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Latest ENSO wrapup is out. Surprised not even a La Nina watch.

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#1436606 - 10/10/2017 22:33 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7579
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Maybe someone or some organisation could invent a Southern Annular Mode wrap-up, something to engage everyone interested...on par with the current wrap-ups available from the Bureau....I'm sure that'd be something to look forward to for the entire country.

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#1436610 - 10/10/2017 23:07 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: RC]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2604
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: RC
Latest ENSO wrapup is out. Surprised not even a La Nina watch.



Im not despite clear La Nia activity in Western US (the savage fires are usually associated with La Nia activity there).

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#1436614 - 11/10/2017 00:13 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 1895
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
All of our current "knowledge" or rather Models for climate are based on roughly a thirty year timeframe, where the advent of Computers and Satellites have allowed us to correlate the past records and compare them to a more corresponding technical collection of records. ENSO, SAM, NINO/NINA, MJO, Etc are all terms thrown around to measure and compare year on year or "anomalies" against, but in realty the more complex and in depth the comparisons get, the more convoluted and confused they become.
Anomalies are measured on a sliding thirty year scale, so become less relative to the past as time moves on. Historical records are continually homogenized to conform with current practices, to the point that they no longer resemble the original anymore, recording stations are dropped or added, and vast swathes of the planet are just extrapolated to the closest monitoring site or recording device.

All of this information though is used to compile predictive "Models" of the Climate ?

We literally have whole Mountain Ranges that are dropped due to a lack of instrument coverage over large geographic areas and temperatures up to 1000 Km away dictating what a high and bottom temperature on a certain date was due to such practices.

My point with all this is that Climate is not a Thirty year or even a Three hundred year period of time, It transgresses thousands upon thousands of years. To think that we can grasp any sort of real understanding or predictive ability without taking into account at least the last ten to twenty thousand years is akin to a kids game of pin the tail on the donkey.

Trying to nail down accuracy over twenty or thirty years if even possible, measured against corrupted historical records is an impossibility. And if the Historical records are not corrupted, then why adjust them continually ?

Many on this thread have observed and commented on the apparent habit of current models to hindcast as opposed to predict, we see numerous models time and again constantly missing the mark, though countless millions are spent each year funding them all, and each year the numerous spahgetti graphs grow.

One would think though that if overall the "Science" was getting closer to predictive ability based upon ever expanding knowledge and collection of data, we would see a narrowing of the Spaghetti graphs and greater predictive skill, instead of the current Bolognaise we are constantly treated to before Hindcasting kicks in.

Yes,it is complicated, Yes,there are some reasons to change historical data, Yes, we should continue funding for research.

But, Shouldn't we as Tax payers expect rigorous Science, as in "SCIENCE" instead of advocates, "SCIENCE" instead of models that need Hindcasting to work properly, "SCIENCE" instead of agendas ? There have been plenty of issues raised over the last few years with the treatment of Data and Records here in Australia that have been shut down by both the Gov't and the Media.

But even that aside, My issue is why only concentrate on the last hundred or even two hundred years alone ? When Climate itself is on a vastly longer timeframes ?
Most people concerned about the Great barrier reef are surprised to learn it only came about 10-13 thousand years ago, most people don't know that you could of walked to either Papua New Guinea or Tasmania at the same time as well.

That sort of change is Climate, not Weather. Ice Fairs and skating on the Thames, Forest's found under Glaciers, Artifacts and remains such as Otzi are all things that need to be explained before we can even pretend to know what our current thirty year adjusted anomally's tell us about knowing anything or even predicting the future.

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#1436615 - 11/10/2017 00:55 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Hagrid Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/02/2013
Posts: 258
Loc: Crediton Qld
Like button!

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#1436620 - 11/10/2017 07:34 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Sillybanter Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 17/03/2017
Posts: 34
Loc: Toowoomba
Nice post marakai, all so true. I have a bit of a laugh at the Bom forecasting the number of cyclones every year. Almost impossible to predict and and they are rarely correct. You just hope they don't spend to much time and money coming up with the prediction. Its summer there will be cyclones be prepared and we will give you fair warning when one develops is all that needs to be said.

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#1436623 - 11/10/2017 07:56 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4478
Loc: Brisbane
90 day SOI value has just crept above 7 for the first time in a while. Looks like going higher too based on the latest GFS forecasts.
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1436624 - 11/10/2017 08:05 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3294
Loc: Buderim
Latest weekly nino values from BOM:

nino 3.4 -0.01
nino 3 +0.01

Can't get any more neutral than that.

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#1436629 - 11/10/2017 08:34 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Pete R Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/02/2002
Posts: 56
Loc: Mendooran
BOM's Criteria for a La Nina watch.

"The chance of a La Nia developing in the coming season has increased. When these criteria have been met in the past, a La Nia event has developed around 50% of the time."
All the following criteria need to be satisfied:

Current climate state: ENSO phase is currently neutral or declining El Nio.

SOI analogues: Of the 10 years that most closely resemble the current SOI pattern, 4 or more have shown La Nia characteristics.

Sub-surface: Significant sub-surface cooling has been observed in the western or central equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Models: One-third or more of surveyed climate models show sustained cooling to at least 0.8 C below average in the NINO3 or NINO3.4 regions of the Pacific Ocean by late winter or spring.

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