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#1436076 - 04/10/2017 18:59 Vic - 12-13/10/17 - finally/maybe a rainy event for October 2017??
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6553
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Hopefully some Vic areas pick up some useful rain from tomorrow's change - but really, I think it's too little too late for pasture?

Anyhow, GFS provides something to "hope for" this time next week.

Will it be the start of a stormy period for Vic???:


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#1436084 - 04/10/2017 21:06 Re: Vic - 12-13/10/17 - finally/maybe a rainy event for October 2017?? [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2264
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Thanks for new tread

Tonight first time spring warmth to open windows by 9pm as inside is very warm 23c and oustside cool down to 17.3c from 29.3c Today..

We need more rain as September was below the average of just 15mm out of 54.2mm.

Means we still have to water our garden as plants dry up the surface fast looking for more water.

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#1436115 - 05/10/2017 10:34 Re: Vic - 12-13/10/17 - finally/maybe a rainy event for October 2017?? [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1806
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
The most recent ACCESS up to next Wed. has some handy rain for this parched area, keep the fingers crossed as usual, these models can and will change that far out.

Thinking that the s/w fronts coming across are looking better?
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept-26mm Oct-18mm to 0900 20th.

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#1436174 - 05/10/2017 22:58 Re: Vic - 12-13/10/17 - finally/maybe a rainy event for October 2017?? [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5795
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Unsure what to make of the models at this stage as it's all a bit messy, but the synoptic prognosis seem to hint that something's likely to swing our way, so fingers crossed! smile

Once this current trough and low clear off and make way for an incoming high, then tomorrow should be fairly cool to mild across Victoria with southerly winds and clearing showers (and brief light snowfalls above 1500m). Forecast tops of 16°C for Melbourne and 23°C for Mildura.

The high gradually clears Eastern Australia into the South Pacific on Saturday, and a warm to hot northerly airflow spreads south across Victoria as several weather systems prepare to combine forces. The next potentially major winter storm for 2017 is already racing northbound across the Southern Ocean from Antarctica en route to Southern Australia, now visible on satellite as a mighty cold front and deepening low pressure system off Southwest WA. Meanwhile as the Pre-Monsoonal Buildup continues to fire-up across the Outback and tropical Northern Australia, another trough is brewing and is expected to tap into tropical and subtropical moisture as it dips south and links up with the impending winter storm. The system should sweep across Victoria late-Sunday into Monday. smile

For Saturday...

Patchy fog in the south, otherwise fine apart from isolated morning showers clearing from East Gippsland, and isolated showers developing over Western districts during the afternoon and evening. Mild to warm and partly cloudy with light/moderate northeast/southeast winds and afternoon coastal seabreezes. Forecast tops of 23°C for Melbourne and 26°C for Mildura.


For Sunday...

Cloud increasing with showers and thunderstorms developing, particularly over Central and Eastern districts, and clearing from the west during the evening. Warm to hot with fresh northerly winds shifting cooler west/southwesterly over Western and Central districts during the afternoon and evening. Forecast tops of 25°C for Melbourne and 32°C for Mildura.


For Monday...

Morning fog over Central and Eastern districts. Scattered showers on and south of the Great Dividing Range, tending isolated in the west during the afternoon and evening. Isolated showers across the Northern Plains until evening. Cool to mild with fresh west/southwesterly winds. Forecast tops of 20°C for Melbourne and 25°C for Mildura.



Then high pressure quickly passes through on Tuesday and allows the warm/hot northerly airflow to become re-established across Victoria as the next potentially major winter storm event joins forces with a new heat low and trough from the Outback and tropical north yet again! Hope its passage scheduled passage for mid/late-next week unleashes a decent rain event and severe thunderstorm outbreak!! grin

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#1436238 - 06/10/2017 19:09 Re: Vic - 12-13/10/17 - finally/maybe a rainy event for October 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6553
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
At this stage, GFS takes my "hope for this time next week" rain/storm chance off the table:




...but it IS spring. Anything can happen if moisture can arrive into Vic.

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#1436278 - 07/10/2017 08:14 Re: Vic - 12-13/10/17 - finally/maybe a rainy event for October 2017?? [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1806
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
ACCESS this AM looking OK for next Wed P, should get some rain out of the coming week.

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept-26mm Oct-18mm to 0900 20th.

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#1436284 - 07/10/2017 10:29 Re: Vic - 12-13/10/17 - finally/maybe a rainy event for October 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6553
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Yep Samboz, a good sleep and we are back to a wet stormy change Wednesday smile


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#1436309 - 07/10/2017 19:05 Re: Vic - 12-13/10/17 - finally/maybe a rainy event for October 2017?? [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2264
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Had thick drops rain and line on radar looks like weak warm NW front..

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#1436360 - 08/10/2017 17:44 Re: Vic - 12-13/10/17 - finally/maybe a rainy event for October 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6553
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
GFS still mooting a bit of rain with Wednesdays (hopefully stormy) change:


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#1436365 - 08/10/2017 18:54 Re: Vic - 12-13/10/17 - finally/maybe a rainy event for October 2017?? [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1806
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Local BOM forecast for home/Maffra, some good falls if it comes off -


Mon 9 Oct Forecast ShowersMin10 °CMax21 °CPrecisPossible rainfall: 2 to 6 mmChance of any rain: 95%
Tue 10 Oct Forecast SunnyMin6 °CMax24 °CPrecisPossible rainfall: 0 mmChance of any rain: 0%
Wed 11 Oct Forecast RainMin6 °CMax29 °CPrecisPossible rainfall: 5 to 15 mmChance of any rain: 95%
Thu 12 Oct Forecast RainMin8 °CMax23 °CPrecisPossible rainfall: 3 to 8 mmChance of any rain: 90%

(Note 29C Wed, that could be STORMY Petros !! )


Edited by samboz (08/10/2017 19:01)
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept-26mm Oct-18mm to 0900 20th.

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#1436379 - 08/10/2017 20:08 Re: Vic - 12-13/10/17 - finally/maybe a rainy event for October 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Weather_Viewer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/09/2012
Posts: 260
Loc: Tarneit, VIC
Smashing it down here in Tarneit. Heavy rain, cracks of thunder and a few flashes. No complaints here.

Looks like another band lining up behind it out towards Bacchus Marsh. Welcome Spring 2017!!!
_________________________
Wunderground

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#1436380 - 08/10/2017 20:13 Re: Vic - 12-13/10/17 - finally/maybe a rainy event for October 2017?? [Re: Petros]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 851
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Storms causing problems at Melbourne Airport right now with another set to come.

_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1436474 - 09/10/2017 18:37 Re: Vic - 12-13/10/17 - finally/maybe a rainy event for October 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6553
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Looks like a good storm chance, given the storms associated with yesterday/todays weak change?

GFS:



AccR similar, but holds less rain for us in Gippsland frown

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#1436586 - 10/10/2017 18:34 Re: Vic - 12-13/10/17 - finally/maybe a rainy event for October 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6553
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
....and to demonstrate the model dance, here's AccR, which holds the rain per yesterday:



GFS has pulled back on any totals exceeding 20mm - BOM is not predicting storms for Gippsland, hopefully others in Vic might be luckier!

P.S. - light rain totals <5mm with storms would probably only set off fires in N Gippy atm!! frown ....a dry period circa 7 days at least, is looming?

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#1436593 - 10/10/2017 20:01 Re: Vic - 12-13/10/17 - finally/maybe a rainy event for October 2017?? [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2264
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
I have checked GFS chart from windyTV and stormcast feel very disappointment.

Thunderstorm will firing up somewhere around Adelaide towards West Victoria and weaken as reach Central Victoria tomorrow at 4pm and with patchy rain likely between 5mm to 10mm.
M.




Edited by chasers addict (10/10/2017 20:05)

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#1436657 - 11/10/2017 11:56 Re: Vic - 12-13/10/17 - finally/maybe a rainy event for October 2017?? [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5795
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
My report for yesterday, and for today so far...

It reached a top of 26.1°C here in Belgrave yesterday, following a rather chilly overnight low of 5.5°C. Despite a rather coolish breeze, it was a gloriously warm and mostly sunny afternoon (the sun felt a tad hot though). High cloud didn't arrive until after nightfall btw. smile

As for today, overnight low of 10.8°C, currently around 22°C and mostly cloudy. Humid with a bit of a breeze, and we've had a few light showers around 30 minutes ago, but also a few sunny breaks.

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#1436681 - 11/10/2017 15:50 Re: Vic - 12-13/10/17 - finally/maybe a rainy event for October 2017?? [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2264
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Overnight was 8.5c and reached 22.8 at 3pm and now dropped to 16.1c with patchy rain at 3.45pm

No thunderstorms in Victoria yet.

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#1436688 - 11/10/2017 17:16 Re: Vic - 12-13/10/17 - finally/maybe a rainy event for October 2017?? [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 598
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Looking forward (hopefully?) for some rain overnight. Modelling predicts anything between 2mm and 14mm overnight and early tomorrow. Central and East Gippsland really needs substantial rain ... this event will not give it but the higher rainfall the better. Anything useful will be in the band currently in far western Vic - note Edenhope's 33mm.

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#1436701 - 11/10/2017 19:27 Re: Vic - 12-13/10/17 - finally/maybe a rainy event for October 2017?? [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1806
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
If we get 10mm + = surprised, going on all forecast models.
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept-26mm Oct-18mm to 0900 20th.

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#1436704 - 11/10/2017 20:25 Re: Vic - 12-13/10/17 - finally/maybe a rainy event for October 2017?? [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1806
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
A warmish 23C here, similiar to East Sale obs.

Breezy, no rain, very black down South earlier, bright and clear to the North.
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept-26mm Oct-18mm to 0900 20th.

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