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#1436676 - 11/10/2017 15:04 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Kino]
EddyG Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5055
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Originally Posted By: Kino
23/20 here pretty impressive. Liking that NW cloud band coming - maybe models undercooked it. If this ne/e flow continues can't see the coast missing out.


Yes looking good and that Noreaster is fairly flying in this afternoon.
5-10mm is forecasted for here tomorrow, would be nice if that was doubled, but I will take it!!
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#1436678 - 11/10/2017 15:16 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1771
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
Very warm here this afternoon,light NE wind,some cumulus clouds to the west but they are not building up into anything.
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#1436683 - 11/10/2017 16:22 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2603
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Amazingly low LFC right now - Mount Keira covered in cloud! Don’t see that often when the suns out.

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#1436685 - 11/10/2017 16:45 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4363
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Just saw the first Jacaranda blossoms of the season around Artarmon, about 10 days early. Looking forward to the displays.

The Sydney forecast for the coming week looks like April rather than early October, with mild to warm temperatures, warm nights, humid, fairly cloudy with the possibility of showers (not particularly heavy at this stage) every day. Maybe we are in something like the 'Buildup'.


Edited by Steve777 (11/10/2017 16:48)
Edit Reason: Add second para

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#1436709 - 11/10/2017 23:03 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1771
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
A good looking rain blob coming in from the NW here at the moment might get enough to lay the dust here in about 1 hour or a bit less,some lightning areas mixed in the blob as well.
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#1436711 - 11/10/2017 23:16 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Perfect Storm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/10/2005
Posts: 971
Loc: Carramar, Sydney, NSW
Good looking blob out there. Doubting we'll get anything worthwhile. Latest EC has 5.4 mm for us for the next 10 days down from approx 11mm earlier today.

Still, it's just one of many runs and as others have said hopefully it's building up to something soon.

Edit: Soon as I said that saw the radar update and that some very light echos were being read on the radar in the metro. Went outside and felt a drop. Haha. Looks like it's forming more to my east.


Edited by Perfect Storm (11/10/2017 23:23)
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#1436712 - 11/10/2017 23:35 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Perfect Storm]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5954
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Perfect Storm
Good looking blob out there. Doubting we'll get anything worthwhile. Latest EC has 5.4 mm for us for the next 10 days down from approx 11mm earlier today.

Still, it's just one of many runs and as others have said hopefully it's building up to something soon.

Edit: Soon as I said that saw the radar update and that some very light echos were being read on the radar in the metro. Went outside and felt a drop. Haha. Looks like it's forming more to my east.


Yeh PS.

Radar seems to be filling in nicely.
After a morning of persistent drizzle today, a follow up would be nice overnight/early morning.

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#1436714 - 11/10/2017 23:39 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8561
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
The fine drizzle we got overnight is pretty rare in a NE'er, especially this time of year. It usually happens in an E/SE stream.

You can tell how light the rain is just by looking at the echoes on radar, most of it not even reaching the ground. It's a slow transition and the bigger rains will closely follow this current run of light messy rain. As Steve mentioned - buildup, good word to use.

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#1436716 - 11/10/2017 23:54 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5954
Loc: Dural
Many of us have used that word LRH.
And yes, the radar always struggles to pick up drizzle.
I was working at Cremorne Point this morning and the drizzle continued till well after lunch time. The radar basically showed nothing where I was the whole time.

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#1436719 - 12/10/2017 07:04 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Perfect Storm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/10/2005
Posts: 971
Loc: Carramar, Sydney, NSW
Quite amazed at the little trace of rain this morning noting the huge swath of rain echos off our coast. Wow

Glad inland got something though.
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#1436720 - 12/10/2017 07:13 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Stormy3]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1617
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
Originally Posted By: Stormy3
A good looking rain blob coming in from the NW here at the moment might get enough to lay the dust here in about 1 hour or a bit less,some lightning areas mixed in the blob as well.


only 12 drops this time stormy. Just enough to wet the grass. Same old.
The shift might be on, but other than a bit of cloud and higher humidity, zero delivered here so far. GFS forecast at least doesnt have me thinking we will see much more in the next 10 days either. Id like to think the little events that are showing up, or the onshore flow will deliver something, but 4 more drops is probably it. Until we get 100mm blob over us in the successive forecasts this crap is going to continue. It may look nina-ish and Qld is starting to get some pay days, but until its in the gauge....it means zip. This summer should provide big rains, but they could still fall everywhere but here (too far inland for coastal, too far east for decent storms or western driven moisture). Very concerning dry.

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#1436721 - 12/10/2017 07:25 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Perfect Storm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/10/2005
Posts: 971
Loc: Carramar, Sydney, NSW
Ran out of edit time.

Latest EC starting to indicate a ramping up of falls for the weekend (and next 10 days). However at this stage EC and BoM largely at odds for the weekend. EC has up to 2 mm for Saturday - BoM going for 3-8 mm noting a 90% chance.

Sunday EC has us seriously ramped it up for up to 27.4 mm (more for the easterly locales) whilst BoM has us for 1-4 mm noting a 70% chance.

BoM forecast and GFS probably much more aligned at this stage.

Will keep my eyes peeled to see which way the pendulum swings and start taking note if we get a couple more encouraging runs.

Noting: how quickly it can forecasteth, it can also forecasteth away. smile
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#1436722 - 12/10/2017 07:47 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6957
We got huge rains this morning, 0.4mm at Bellambi and 0 recorded at Albion Park.

It seems that setups that would usually bring us some decent rain have delivered very little. I was reading this somewhere else, and it is very true. In fact dry times in general seem to provide very little rainfall in setups where there should have been more, and it generally just seems to struggle to rain.

Like early this morning there should have been 2-3mm here, and even yesterday with a moist NNEly airstream would've produced 5-10mm in wetter times IMO.

And happy birthday Dave, spot on 10mm in the gauge for you. Not a bad present at all!!

PS: Should be a rather warm one today with temps close to 30, probably above that in Sydney.


Edited by Wave Rider (12/10/2017 07:56)
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#1436726 - 12/10/2017 08:01 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2603
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
No doubt we’re being f*ed over, while everywhere else is starting to see some decent rains (nth QLD are next - looking like up to 400mm there next week).

Still looks unsettled all next week but no real strong rain signals sadly. But following weekend ACCESS does like up to 40mm. Guess our wait continues.

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#1436730 - 12/10/2017 08:08 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6957
Yeah we are getting screwed a bit, and this usually doesn't happen here in Wollongong.

The rain this morning will been all but useless by the end of today as desiccating westerlies take over, lowering dew points into negative territory (possibly well below zero).

Only 25 forecasted here today, what a load of rubbish. Will be at least 27, I'd probably go 28C. Unless there's something I'm not seeing, I don't know how it could be as low as 25C.
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#1436735 - 12/10/2017 08:19 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Wave Rider]
snowforus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 05/07/2012
Posts: 391
Loc: Lithgow 945m a.s.l. (Central T...
About 2 mm here. That's about equal to what we've had in the past 6 weeks.
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#1436737 - 12/10/2017 08:22 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
EddyG Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5055
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
6.7mm here, thought we might have go a bit more.
Certainly going to humid when that cloud clears!!

WR, I think there is a bit of a southerly moving up the coast, hence why they probably went with 25c?

And happy B'day DM!!


Edited by EddyG (12/10/2017 08:23)
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#1436743 - 12/10/2017 08:44 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Jimi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/03/2004
Posts: 956
Loc: Cammeray
Incredible that Obs Hill managed a zero in the gauge again.

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#1436747 - 12/10/2017 09:15 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Wave Rider]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2603
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Yeah we are getting screwed a bit, and this usually doesn't happen here in Wollongong.

The rain this morning will been all but useless by the end of today as desiccating westerlies take over, lowering dew points into negative territory (possibly well below zero).

Only 25 forecasted here today, what a load of rubbish. Will be at least 27, I'd probably go 28C. Unless there's something I'm not seeing, I don't know how it could be as low as 25C.


I do note that the escarpment, which was looking sad and brown last week, has rapidly greened up again - amazing what a few days of a moist easterly feed can do. Pity there's not many rain gauges along there but there'd be prob 20-30mm along there over the last week.

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#1436760 - 12/10/2017 10:18 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Wave Rider]
Mr Buzle Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/09/2014
Posts: 66
Loc: Lake Macquarie NSW
Desiccating! Nice word WR, reminds me of that packet of coconut you find hidden at the back of the pantry!
Happy birthday DM
Nice to get a bit of rain last night.

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