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#1436990 - 13/10/2017 21:35 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Rain Event, possible heavy falls 14th-17th October 2017 [Re: Mega]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2904
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Bugger!

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#1436993 - 13/10/2017 21:54 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Rain Event, possible heavy falls 14th-17th October 2017 [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1878
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
Bugger!


GFS still holding strong though.

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#1436996 - 13/10/2017 22:08 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Rain Event, possible heavy falls 14th-17th October 2017 [Re: Mega]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2904
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
True N.F. , GFS has its good times, good for $•!t other times, like most models.
Never mind, what comes will come when the time is right. We'll see.
Any rain is good rain :~}

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#1437010 - 14/10/2017 06:49 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Rain Event, possible heavy falls 14th-17th October 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2904
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Gloomy overcast, warm & calm morning. Those small rain areas havnt moved much so whatever cells gona pop up today wont be moving anywhere in a hurry.
BOM's rain forecast has been turned up a few notches. Great, so hurry up & rain!

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#1437011 - 14/10/2017 07:00 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Rain Event, possible heavy falls 14th-17th October 2017 [Re: Mega]
Blowin' Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 854
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
Yeah, anxiously awaiting the watl update

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#1437012 - 14/10/2017 07:10 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Rain Event, possible heavy falls 14th-17th October 2017 [Re: Mega]
Blowin' Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 854
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
Crap! 3-400mm for the sunny coast!!!

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#1437013 - 14/10/2017 07:25 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Rain Event, possible heavy falls 14th-17th October 2017 [Re: Mega]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2904
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
This event looks biblical.
Glad the house is on a hill!


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (14/10/2017 07:26)

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#1437014 - 14/10/2017 08:20 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Rain Event, possible heavy falls 14th-17th October 2017 [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6623
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Well I'll be...ACCESS-R has actually fallen inline with GFS this morning, while CMC has shifted closer to the GFS solution as well. EC however basically hasn't changed and still clears the second trough & heavy rain north by Monday.

edit: And ACCESS-G is closer to the EC solution, trough is further north and heads dead west towards the Capricorn Coast.

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#1437015 - 14/10/2017 08:42 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Rain Event, possible heavy falls 14th-17th October 2017 [Re: Mega]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 183
Loc: Golden Beach
Rain offshore from Sunny Coast looks great ominous.It looks to be creeping slowly nor west. Orange blob formed over Caloundra out of nowhere and isn't going anywhere. Could be a massive event.

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#1437018 - 14/10/2017 08:58 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Rain Event, possible heavy falls 14th-17th October 2017 [Re: Mega]
The_Spook Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 09/07/2007
Posts: 41
Loc: Sawtell, NSW
Huge thunderstorm earlier this morning at Sawtell then the rain.

Had 40 mm in the last hour, bringing the total to 77 mm since 5am.
_________________________
https://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=pws:INEWSOUT60

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#1437020 - 14/10/2017 09:19 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Rain Event, possible heavy falls 14th-17th October 2017 [Re: Mega]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 616
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
At last the sound of thunder.Nice dark ominous storm right on the coast here Bring it on!

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#1437022 - 14/10/2017 09:23 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Rain Event, possible heavy falls 14th-17th October 2017 [Re: Mega]
explorer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 546
Loc: Coolum Beach, Qld
Finally! Light, steady rain here at Coolum Chase ... None of the storms affected us so far, which we do not mind at this stage ... take this rain (getting heavier as I type this now ... Hooray!!! smile

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#1437023 - 14/10/2017 09:24 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Rain Event, possible heavy falls 14th-17th October 2017 [Re: Mega]
BIG T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 982
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
Amazes me how often you get a real extended dry period followed by a short rain event which brings the annual rainfall right back near avg.

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#1437024 - 14/10/2017 09:31 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Rain Event, possible heavy falls 14th-17th October 2017 [Re: Mega]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4683
There's no intense surface lows or very deep troughs near the coast (according to current modelling) to help focus/enhance the rainfall might mean that rainfall amounts for the majority might be a bit less than biblical... but even so, the upper low/surface troughs/wind convergence zones/moist onshore flow combo should still mean decent rains near the coast.

Pretty breezy conditions developing near the coast and higher terrain from Sunday til midweek too.

Although there's the slight chance of an isolated spin-up due to the low level shear, low LCL's and some instability, I'd say it's of far less significance compared to the rainfall.

And of course as others have also mentioned, some places will inevitably get a lot less or more than forecast depending on any embedded slow-moving convection and the positioning of surface features (troughs, small lows, convergence zones).
Coastal fringe looks to have the best rainfall amounts which isn't surprising although as SteveO said, the upmotion on the eastern and southeastern flank of the upper low might encourage some inland rains.

Here's the latest percentages of all the scenarios (total of 62 from three of the ensembles) that are currently dropping more than 25mm of rain between today and Tuesday:



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#1437026 - 14/10/2017 09:56 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Rain Event, possible heavy falls 14th-17th October 2017 [Re: Mega]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 778
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Areas west and south of here with great rainfall totals. Stanthorpe going on 30mm since last night. Kararra area with persistant storms last night. Not a drop here overnight. Hope this event produces something for us. Have not had a decent drink for the past 5 months. I am truly happy and excited for everyone who has been receiving rain and storms. It is long overdue.
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1437028 - 14/10/2017 10:03 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Rain Event, possible heavy falls 14th-17th October 2017 [Re: Mega]
explorer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 546
Loc: Coolum Beach, Qld
It stopped now We received 10ml in about 35 minutes (Coolum Chase/Yandina Creek area, near/west to Coolum)


Edited by explorer (14/10/2017 10:03)

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#1437029 - 14/10/2017 10:06 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Rain Event, possible heavy falls 14th-17th October 2017 [Re: Mega]
LDRcycles Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 14/03/2017
Posts: 22
Loc: Kin Kin, Qld
Come on Huey, just a little to the left!

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#1437031 - 14/10/2017 10:06 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Rain Event, possible heavy falls 14th-17th October 2017 [Re: Mega]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17921
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Gympie radar definitely looks better since the maintenance work was done. Seems consistent with Gladstone for colouration now.
_________________________
"Don't steal. The government hates competition."

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#1437032 - 14/10/2017 10:08 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Rain Event, possible heavy falls 14th-17th October 2017 [Re: Mega]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 183
Loc: Golden Beach
Sky to the southwest of Caloundra looks black with deep thunder every few minutes. Humidity is like Weipa in December!

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#1437033 - 14/10/2017 10:10 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Rain Event, possible heavy falls 14th-17th October 2017 [Re: Mega]
Blowin' Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 854
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
FYI itís mm (depth) not ml (volume)
Thereís many trillions of ml in this event...

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