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#1437861 - 18/10/2017 13:10 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Rain Event, possible heavy falls 14th-17th October 2017 [Re: Mega]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2904
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Ha, never mind listening, I am watching it grow already.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (18/10/2017 13:10)

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#1437862 - 18/10/2017 13:26 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Rain Event, possible heavy falls 14th-17th October 2017 [Re: Mega]
bundybear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/12/2010
Posts: 2130
Loc: Between Bundy and Gladstone
Adding last weeks rain with this weeks and we are slightly up over 470ml for October. I suspect there is another 20 or so after the latest shower and still more to come.

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#1437863 - 18/10/2017 13:37 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Rain Event, possible heavy falls 14th-17th October 2017 [Re: Mega]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17921
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Nearly 650mm here.
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#1437884 - 18/10/2017 15:29 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Rain Event, possible heavy falls 14th-17th October 2017 [Re: Mega]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1272
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Incredible! That's almost our whole year-to-date.

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#1437889 - 18/10/2017 15:50 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Rain Event, possible heavy falls 14th-17th October 2017 [Re: Mega]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5289
Loc: Dural
Amazing stuff ColdFront.

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#1437893 - 18/10/2017 16:14 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Rain Event, possible heavy falls 14th-17th October 2017 [Re: Mega]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17921
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Yeah quite insane rainfall. The past 5 years this area has averaged just over 900 mm a year. When you consider that most of that has fallen on just 4 days it is pretty crazy.
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"Don't steal. The government hates competition."

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#1437898 - 18/10/2017 16:40 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Rain Event, possible heavy falls 14th-17th October 2017 [Re: Mega]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4361
Loc: Brisbane
Whilst GFS was out on timing and placement of heavy falls, I think the size of the falls that actually occurred have shown the GFS forecast was perhaps not as crazy as some here have suggested.
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1437899 - 18/10/2017 16:53 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Rain Event, possible heavy falls 14th-17th October 2017 [Re: Mega]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4683
I still can't see how the intense rainfall which fell 300km further north along the QLD coast....on a different day... from a different area of enhanced rainfall... was even remotely close to the mark in anyone's books (even if it was described as potential).

As also mentioned earlier, the difference between EC's highest falls for the Sunshine Coast area and observed highest falls was close to 100mm... .compared to the difference between GFS and observed which was around 500mm... which is a massive difference.

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#1437901 - 18/10/2017 17:11 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Rain Event, possible heavy falls 14th-17th October 2017 [Re: Mega]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5289
Loc: Dural
Reading from the outside Ken, I think some others are getting the 500 mm total confused. That GFS forecast was for a 24 hr period, for a specific area of the QLD coast. Some areas may have had more than that, but it has fallen over a period of several days, in different areas.
You are completely correct.

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#1437902 - 18/10/2017 17:16 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Rain Event, possible heavy falls 14th-17th October 2017 [Re: Mega]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17921
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Yeah GFS was stoned ...again.
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"Don't steal. The government hates competition."

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#1437905 - 18/10/2017 17:40 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Rain Event, possible heavy falls 14th-17th October 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4361
Loc: Brisbane
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
I still can't see how the intense rainfall which fell 300km further north along the QLD coast....on a different day... from a different area of enhanced rainfall... was even remotely close to the mark in anyone's books (even if it was described as potential).

As also mentioned earlier, the difference between EC's highest falls for the Sunshine Coast area and observed highest falls was close to 100mm... .compared to the difference between GFS and observed which was around 500mm... which is a massive difference.


Bulburin had 480mm in 24hrs. Some stated it was ridiculous to suggest this system had the potential to drop such a large amount of rain in such a short period.

Whilst it may not have done so at the time and place first forecast by GFS it does illustrate the potential for very heavy falls was always present.

Did WATL or EC forecast the 480mm at Bulburin?
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1437907 - 18/10/2017 17:54 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Rain Event, possible heavy falls 14th-17th October 2017 [Re: Locke]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4683
Originally Posted By: Locke
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
I still can't see how the intense rainfall which fell 300km further north along the QLD coast....on a different day... from a different area of enhanced rainfall... was even remotely close to the mark in anyone's books (even if it was described as potential).

As also mentioned earlier, the difference between EC's highest falls for the Sunshine Coast area and observed highest falls was close to 100mm... .compared to the difference between GFS and observed which was around 500mm... which is a massive difference.


Bulburin had 480mm in 24hrs. Some stated it was ridiculous to suggest this system had the potential to drop such a large amount of rain in such a short period.

Whilst it may not have done so at the time and place first forecast by GFS it does illustrate the potential for very heavy falls was always present.

Did WATL or EC forecast the 480mm at Bulburin?


That's a very long bow to draw....300km away, on a different day, from a different area of enhanced rainfall? Where would one draw the line? If GFS forecasts 1000mm in VIC but it ends up falling in WA three days afterwards, would that also be plausible?

And EC had falls up to 350mm in the 24hrs to 9am today in that same region.... the closest GFS got using the same run was 250mm... and that was in the Byfield State Forest area over 200km to the north of where the falls occurred.

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#1437917 - 18/10/2017 19:35 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Rain Event, possible heavy falls 14th-17th October 2017 [Re: Mega]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4361
Loc: Brisbane
The side of the argument I am addressing is the one that said this type of system and conditions could not drop falls of this magnitude which was put forward as an obvious reason why the large numbers put up by GFS should be disregarded (irrespective if there were other good reasons for dismissing the forecast).

Irrespective of where and when the falls occurred, unless your talking about a totally different weather system, the weather system did have the potential for very heavy falls.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1437919 - 18/10/2017 19:44 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Rain Event, possible heavy falls 14th-17th October 2017 [Re: Mega]
Namarrkun Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2012
Posts: 339
Loc: Salisbury
Event total for Salisbury currently sitting at 89.4mm....one upside to not getting as much rain as others further North, is that i was able to mow the lawn this afternoon. The grass was damp but the ground not really that soft under foot at all, just shows how badly the rain was needed and how quickly it's soaked into the ground.

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#1437920 - 18/10/2017 20:21 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Rain Event, possible heavy falls 14th-17th October 2017 [Re: Locke]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4683
Originally Posted By: Locke
The side of the argument I am addressing is the one that said this type of system and conditions could not drop falls of this magnitude which was put forward as an obvious reason why the large numbers put up by GFS should be disregarded (irrespective if there were other good reasons for dismissing the forecast).

Irrespective of where and when the falls occurred, unless your talking about a totally different weather system, the weather system did have the potential for very heavy falls.


I think the point put forward was that falls in the order of the 500-725mm consistently predicted by GFS were unlikely in *our* region (SE QLD including that bullseye over the Sunshine Coast) due to less available moisture down here with this same synoptic setup (the fact that areas further north would be more prone to bigger falls given the same setup due to extra moisture was also mentioned).

And was also mentioned earlier, I don't like totally dismissing or discarding the forecast from a particular model either but rather, I prefer to take a middle of the ground approach between models because more often than not, that's been shown to perform better than any single model solution by itself. Sure, GFS was a huge outlier here but blending its amounts with other models gave a solution that ended up being closer to the obs than just GFS itself (models such as EC were a lot closer but the higher totals from GFS nudged the multimodel average upwards closer to the obs).
And then of course comes all the other things that should be applied such as using knowledge of past similar setups vs what happened, local effects, met principles, etc to come up with a final forecast.

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#1437928 - 18/10/2017 21:14 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Rain Event, possible heavy falls 14th-17th October 2017 [Re: Mega]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1455
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
And the BOM were fairly spot on overall, except in the Brisbane area where they kind of got away with the min amount in the from to forecasts.
Models, treat em with a grain of salt until the event starts unfolding. yet another trough this weekend seems to be nudging its way into the forecast for more showers. Don't think there will be a let up of this dreary weather til next tuesday. I would prefer gale foorce wind with torrential rain but can't have it all smile


Edited by paulcirrus (18/10/2017 21:15)
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#1437930 - 18/10/2017 21:19 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Rain Event, possible heavy falls 14th-17th October 2017 [Re: Mega]
pabloako Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 30/03/2007
Posts: 1619
Loc: Ocean View, Queensland
Another 26mm for me today and still light rain is falling.
Total for me for this event is 213mm.
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Ocean View, QLD. (Alt. 412m)

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#1437940 - 18/10/2017 22:44 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Rain Event, possible heavy falls 14th-17th October 2017 [Re: Mega]
Namarrkun Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2012
Posts: 339
Loc: Salisbury
Slowly edging closer to the triple figures.....just clicked 90.0mm in the gauge

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#1437942 - 18/10/2017 23:14 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Rain Event, possible heavy falls 14th-17th October 2017 [Re: Mega]
Twister1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 523
Loc: Chadstone Vic
The 2 falls above 300mm the 378 and the 489 are both wrong the gauges stuffed up and double tapped at 0.2mm so the actual amount is half

So the highest fall to 9am is the 294mm


Edited by Twister1 (18/10/2017 23:16)
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Bring on the STORMS

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#1437982 - 19/10/2017 08:14 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Rain Event, possible heavy falls 14th-17th October 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2758
Loc: Buderim
deleted due to failure on my part to understand something....


Edited by Mike Hauber (19/10/2017 08:15)

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