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#1436886 - 13/10/2017 08:14 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2713
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
A poster who has pretty much jumped on everything anyone has posted in recent weeks and yet everyone else is the troll.


I have been accused of trolling a lot on this thread.

I have never accused anyone else on this thread of trolling.

Just recently you stated you had stopped reading all technical content in my comments. If you do not wish to read my technical content that is your choice, but in that case I ask that you refrain from commenting on what I post entirely.

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#1436887 - 13/10/2017 08:18 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17869
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
So in other words there was no warning in that link I posted Mike. You're extremely quick to play the victim. You made the comment that the south pacific was warming for the past 4 weeks and it is not. You are pretty quick to pick on others.
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#1436889 - 13/10/2017 08:40 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17869
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
....and in relation to your "technical" posts, these were the lengthy explanations on why we were heading to El Nino. Of course I stopped reading them, they were flawed.

Ever since you were corrected on it you have tried to pick holes in pretty much everything I have posted which I have respectfully counted. Now that you have been provided evidence to debunk yet another of your warming claims you go on the attack rather than acknowledging you were wrong .....again !

RD's link shows the same .Continued cooling !

GOIMO.
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#1436890 - 13/10/2017 08:48 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2713
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
....and in relation to your "technical" posts, these were the lengthy explanations on why we were heading to El Nino.

Ever since you were corrected on it you have tried to pick holes in pretty much everything I have posted which I have respectfully counted. Now that you have been provided evidence to debunk yet another of your warming claims you go on the attack rather than acknowledging you were wrong .....again !

GOIMO.


I already admitted that I was wrong about the cooling. My latest technical post finished with a prediction of cooling in the short term.

Please either read my posts properly or stop responding entirely.

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#1436891 - 13/10/2017 08:49 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17869
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
OK Mike, please extend me the same courtesy.
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#1436892 - 13/10/2017 09:00 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2713
Loc: Buderim
Sorry Coldfront, now that I think some more I realise I should have made that request in PM.

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#1436896 - 13/10/2017 09:28 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1294
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
seems like there is some pretty cold water in the subsurface in the central pacific. -4 anomolalies. Im not suggesting the cold water in the east will be cut off, but if the warm anomoloies in the far east north of equator did take over off South America and the cooler water in the subsurface in the central pacific continues climbing to the surface....that would be essentially a la nina modoki style setup? Perhaps mean a short intense wet spell for Eastern Oz? Has this sort of setup occurred before?
Right now though it does seem SST's do seem to be setting up text book La nina, just thought the above scenario might be a possibility....

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#1436913 - 13/10/2017 10:55 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: _Johnno_]
_Johnno_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1674
Originally Posted By: _Johnno_
What on earth is going on?

2016 SAM goes mostly Positive bar the odd temporary wild swing late Autumn and Winter and early Spring then comes in October and goes negative rest of Spring and through Summer til March before going back to Positive again.

2017 SAM generally positive most of Autumn and Winter bar a one or two weeks where it went negative.. It continued to be positive into September... Then we enter October and this?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/aao/new.aao_index_ensm.html

Surely not the same pattern as last yr? Can't work out why the SAM stays predominantly positive in the cooler months then negative in the warmer months? Love to know what is going on here.



Does anyone have any thoughts on this? Anyone?? Or we to busy arguing about other stuff to see what other posters post in here?


Edited by _Johnno_ (13/10/2017 10:55)
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#1436915 - 13/10/2017 11:15 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1294
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
my guess is it will be linked to polar vortex, SSW and perhaps solar minimum somehow, but the ultimate dynamics causing the current SAM situation.....well....probably need to be doing a doctorate to go close to understanding it. Im sure others will have much better insights...

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#1436916 - 13/10/2017 11:24 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: _Johnno_]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1013
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: _Johnno_
Originally Posted By: _Johnno_
What on earth is going on?

2016 SAM goes mostly Positive bar the odd temporary wild swing late Autumn and Winter and early Spring then comes in October and goes negative rest of Spring and through Summer til March before going back to Positive again.

2017 SAM generally positive most of Autumn and Winter bar a one or two weeks where it went negative.. It continued to be positive into September... Then we enter October and this?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/aao/new.aao_index_ensm.html

Surely not the same pattern as last yr? Can't work out why the SAM stays predominantly positive in the cooler months then negative in the warmer months? Love to know what is going on here.



Does anyone have any thoughts on this? Anyone?? Or we to busy arguing about other stuff to see what other posters post in here?


In fairness Johnno if you commented/answered other people's questions/posts you may find they'd do the same?

Perhaps as Gringos as said it's associated with the polar vortex and also the polynya?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mysterious-hole-nearly-size-south-221400141.html

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#1436917 - 13/10/2017 11:34 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2680
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
I posted a bit about the PV in the SSW thread Johnno.

I want to know what sort of effects those cold SST in the west are going to have moving into summer. They seem VERY stubborn.

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#1436920 - 13/10/2017 12:00 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: _Johnno_]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5053
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Originally Posted By: _Johnno_
Originally Posted By: _Johnno_
What on earth is going on?

2016 SAM goes mostly Positive bar the odd temporary wild swing late Autumn and Winter and early Spring then comes in October and goes negative rest of Spring and through Summer til March before going back to Positive again.

2017 SAM generally positive most of Autumn and Winter bar a one or two weeks where it went negative.. It continued to be positive into September... Then we enter October and this?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/aao/new.aao_index_ensm.html

Surely not the same pattern as last yr? Can't work out why the SAM stays predominantly positive in the cooler months then negative in the warmer months? Love to know what is going on here.



Does anyone have any thoughts on this? Anyone?? Or we to busy arguing about other stuff to see what other posters post in here?

Yep, good point...
I'd like to come back in and say I have some insight into this...but I don't. I've looked at the antarctic sea ice extent to see if this throws some light on it...but no. The recent posts on potential low level warming in the antarctic certainly would - warmer antarctic means weaker polar vortex which means negative SAM. The current forecast is as strong as you get to see. Will be interesting to see the impact it has in the tropics (as opposed to the southern latitudes where the effects are more obvious). You'd guess it had to have some impact closer to the equator - if not directly then at least as a reaction to what was happening in the 40s...but whether that is the same each time is something I could only guess at.

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#1436925 - 13/10/2017 12:30 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1294
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
what reaction would we expect in the tropics from negative SAM in summer in cool neutral? Interested to know.

For this area Im hoping it might amplify upper cold pools and help interact with tropic moisture to bring events to East NSW....can only hope.

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#1436932 - 13/10/2017 13:18 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: GringosRain]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2680
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Originally Posted By: GringosRain
what reaction would we expect in the tropics from negative SAM in summer in cool neutral? Interested to know.

For this area Im hoping it might amplify upper cold pools and help interact with tropic moisture to bring events to East NSW....can only hope.


Wasn't last year a neg SAM with cool neutral, Gringos?

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#1436934 - 13/10/2017 13:31 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1294
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
....yeah it probably was, but I think it was at a different phase in the ENSO cycle where cool had come off its peak and was just bouncing around. Just doing this from memory, so Im sure I will be corrected. -SAM wasnt any good for us on the coast thats for sure (through most of summer in this area at least). Im just hoping that because of the unusual timing this year for what still appears to be cooling ENSO that it will have an entirely different outcome if -SAM and +SOI interact.


Edited by GringosRain (13/10/2017 13:33)

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#1436936 - 13/10/2017 13:41 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5053
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
More of a thought on what could happen than an explanation of why...but whilst a negative can send the Highs closer to the equator...which does not help create east coast rain events...it can also send significant cold pools further north too...which always makes for interesting events as we head into summer. So I'm looking forward to seeing what this one does - though with the La Nina reality that we seem to be looking at with the weather right now across the east coast I'd say it could easily result in at least one other significant rain event in the coming month.

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#1436937 - 13/10/2017 13:51 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1294
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
...just further to this. Around May of last year the SOI accelerated positive all the way through to October where it dropped back. As I recall this period correlated with -IOD and some -SAM events which resulted in great inland rains for NSW over the winter months.

The tap very much started to switch off after that.

So what Im hoping this time is that +SOI will play a similar role for the east of NSW and QLD to -IOD last year west of the divide, if indeed the SOI continues its general positive trend, and turns eastern moisture into storms events from colder air pushing north (preferrably in the upper atmosphere and not crappola SW changes).

Im sure this can be all picked apart. I havent gone back to look at the graphs at that time in detail. The dynamics are all in my gut really.... I can just see a set of weather combos where -SAM might not be that bad for us. Might be more wishful thinking or hope as I see my dams whittle away....

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#1436947 - 13/10/2017 15:31 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
_Johnno_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1674
Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: _Johnno_
Originally Posted By: _Johnno_
What on earth is going on?

2016 SAM goes mostly Positive bar the odd temporary wild swing late Autumn and Winter and early Spring then comes in October and goes negative rest of Spring and through Summer til March before going back to Positive again.

2017 SAM generally positive most of Autumn and Winter bar a one or two weeks where it went negative.. It continued to be positive into September... Then we enter October and this?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/aao/new.aao_index_ensm.html

Surely not the same pattern as last yr? Can't work out why the SAM stays predominantly positive in the cooler months then negative in the warmer months? Love to know what is going on here.



Does anyone have any thoughts on this? Anyone?? Or we to busy arguing about other stuff to see what other posters post in here?


In fairness Johnno if you commented/answered other people's questions/posts you may find they'd do the same?

Perhaps as Gringos as said it's associated with the polar vortex and also the polynya?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mysterious-hole-nearly-size-south-221400141.html


Thanks to you Kino and others getting back to me but in saying that with all due respect I was trying to change the subject from what you guys were focusing/arguing about and also nowadays I participate much less in here.

I'm not going to completely stop engaging in this thread like Adon did but have limited myself in how much I contribute.. I guess in 12 years of coming in here never thought it would come to this but it has unfortunately due to the snipes, digging holes and tit for tat pot shots from a certain poster and now try not to engage with this poster anymore hence why I didn't participate in the ongoing argument of whether the southern hemisphere is cooling or warming. It's just the way it is now.


Edited by _Johnno_ (13/10/2017 15:36)
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#1436948 - 13/10/2017 15:35 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1674
Thanks once again guys for replying to my post (Y)
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#1436955 - 13/10/2017 16:13 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1013
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Bruh; ignore that and keep posting. I always reply smile

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