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#1436810 - 12/10/2017 16:29 Re: Far North Queensland Dry Season - Cardwell Northwards - 2017 [Re: Ronfishes]
Simmo FNQ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2012
Posts: 1406
Loc: Mareeba
As usual all the models have been reducing our rain steadily. EC saying 50mm, CMC 20-30mm and GFS 10-25mm. frown
See what BOM's map says tomorrow morning.
_________________________
2017 Daily Obs

Mareeba
MTD: 95.0mm
YTD: 840.6mm

Mareeba
2016: 491.4mm
2015: 826.2mm


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#1436873 - 12/10/2017 23:36 Re: Far North Queensland Dry Season - Cardwell Northwards - 2017 [Re: Ronfishes]
hickory Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/01/2006
Posts: 1152
Loc: Holloways Beach QLD
What !!
The models look like being wrong ??

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#1436902 - 13/10/2017 09:58 Re: Far North Queensland Dry Season - Cardwell Northwards - 2017 [Re: hickory]
WANDJINA G'vale Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/03/2006
Posts: 2197
Loc: Gordonvale - Qld
Originally Posted By: hickory
What !!
The models look like being wrong ??


lol
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#1436961 - 13/10/2017 16:39 Re: Far North Queensland Dry Season - Cardwell Northwards - 2017 [Re: hickory]
Simmo FNQ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2012
Posts: 1406
Loc: Mareeba
Originally Posted By: hickory
What !!
The models look like being wrong ??


Hahaha The sad thing is they still make me get my hopes up.

Rainfall increased again. grin I can't handle this yo-yoing.
_________________________
2017 Daily Obs

Mareeba
MTD: 95.0mm
YTD: 840.6mm

Mareeba
2016: 491.4mm
2015: 826.2mm


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#1436965 - 13/10/2017 18:08 Re: Far North Queensland Dry Season - Cardwell Northwards - 2017 [Re: Simmo FNQ]
hickory Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/01/2006
Posts: 1152
Loc: Holloways Beach QLD
Originally Posted By: Simmo FNQ
Originally Posted By: hickory
What !!
The models look like being wrong ??


Hahaha The sad thing is they still make me get my hopes up.

Rainfall increased again. grin I can't handle this yo-yoing.

Very occasionally they have to get it right, by sheer fluke Simmo, so don't abandon all hope yet.
For some reason my grass doesn't have that audible 'crunchy' sound when walked on that it usually has around mid October.

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#1436969 - 13/10/2017 19:37 Re: Far North Queensland Dry Season - Cardwell Northwards - 2017 [Re: Ronfishes]
drivenunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2010
Posts: 1989
Loc: Kewarra Beach, Cairns
I actually think this October has been relatively cooler than usual. Just me?
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Bring on the rain!!!

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#1436987 - 13/10/2017 21:22 Re: Far North Queensland Dry Season - Cardwell Northwards - 2017 [Re: Ronfishes]
Ronfishes Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/02/2013
Posts: 3284
Loc: Gordonvale
Definitely cooler than the last 2 at least DU
_________________________
MTD: 260.6mm
2016-2017 wet season: 1317.8mm
YTD: 1653mm

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#1437001 - 13/10/2017 23:07 Re: Far North Queensland Dry Season - Cardwell Northwards - 2017 [Re: Ronfishes]
Simmo FNQ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2012
Posts: 1406
Loc: Mareeba
Hopefully this is the time they get it right hickory.
A little warmer out here for October so far. Hopefully that will change with some overcast days.
_________________________
2017 Daily Obs

Mareeba
MTD: 95.0mm
YTD: 840.6mm

Mareeba
2016: 491.4mm
2015: 826.2mm


Top
#1437008 - 14/10/2017 01:18 Re: Far North Queensland Dry Season - Cardwell Northwards - 2017 [Re: drivenunder]
Hurricane force Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 4031
Loc: Cairns, Parramatta park.
Originally Posted By: drivenunder
I actually think this October has been relatively cooler than usual. Just me?


I agree DU.

Looks like we should start to see rain develop around Monday?
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MTD: 223.5 mm
YTD: 2000.5mm

September- 68.5mm

2014- 2352.6mm
2015- 2635.1mm
2016- 1495.7mm
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#1437030 - 14/10/2017 10:06 Re: Far North Queensland Dry Season - Cardwell Northwards - 2017 [Re: Ronfishes]
Ronfishes Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/02/2013
Posts: 3284
Loc: Gordonvale
Mon-Wed seems to be what the models have been going for for some time now. Maybe we can't discount them before the actual prediction?
_________________________
MTD: 260.6mm
2016-2017 wet season: 1317.8mm
YTD: 1653mm

Science doesn't care what you think.

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#1437035 - 14/10/2017 10:15 Re: Far North Queensland Dry Season - Cardwell Northwards - 2017 [Re: Ronfishes]
Ronfishes Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/02/2013
Posts: 3284
Loc: Gordonvale
Out of interest, a quick look up indicates Cairns AP is actually running warmer than last year at 22.3c/30.9c vs 21.4c/29.8c 2016.
The long term average is 20.6c/29.5c

Just doesn't seem as bad, the 9am and 3pm RH are a little lower this year, but they were even lower last year. Maybe it was November the heat really kicked in.
_________________________
MTD: 260.6mm
2016-2017 wet season: 1317.8mm
YTD: 1653mm

Science doesn't care what you think.

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#1437047 - 14/10/2017 11:09 Re: Far North Queensland Dry Season - Cardwell Northwards - 2017 [Re: Ronfishes]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4063
Loc: El Arish
There was a rouge shower here at 5am.
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#1437058 - 14/10/2017 12:01 Re: Far North Queensland Dry Season - Cardwell Northwards - 2017 [Re: Ronfishes]
drivenunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2010
Posts: 1989
Loc: Kewarra Beach, Cairns
Hi guys,

A little off-topic but I need some advice. We are buying a block of land and building a house in the coming months. Or budget is limited, so we are looking at Smithfield Village Estate.


I have had a look at the flood maps, and it looks like lots of Oranges and Reds. With the Cairns Council Flood Maps, are they only in the event of serious storm events like Yasi? In which case, it looks like most of Cairns would go under.

The block we are actually looking at is right next to a river / creek. https://www.realestate.com.au/property-residential+land-qld-smithfield-201864686 Am I crazy to think that this would be a safe block to buy? We have not committed to it yet, but considering it.

http://www.cairns.qld.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0010/20017/6037-02-302.pdf - if anyone is really keen to give me an answer - if you zoom into Smithfield Estate and find Montalbion Ave - you see that TINY red spot - the block is right next to that.

They also talk bout the 1% AEP event - is this like a once in a lifetime event like Yasi??

This map says to me that the whole of Cairns would go under...

Some real info would be appreciated if anyone has time. Sorry its not entirely weather related - but floods a flood!

Cheers,


Edited by drivenunder (14/10/2017 12:02)
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#1437102 - 14/10/2017 16:09 Re: Far North Queensland Dry Season - Cardwell Northwards - 2017 [Re: Ronfishes]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2094
Loc: Chillagoe
Nice block DU - just build like they did in the old days. Elevated. Like that couple old farmhouses still standing at the edge of the cane near Caravonica. Beats me why people persist in building on slabs in the tropics. Just make sure your foundations/poles are strong enough.
Couldn't locate it on the flood map....near enough, but which block?
Have you checked the altitude using google earth? Looks like it's 4-7 metres most places. Not sure I'd feel comfortable under 10metres at the least, unless I had a beach frontage laugh


Edited by cold@28 (14/10/2017 16:24)
_________________________
Chillagoe
January: 393.0mm | February: 221.0mm | March: 153.5mm | April: 11.5mm | May: 8.5mm | June: 2.0mm | July: 2.0mm | August: 1.0mm
-------
YTD: 812.0mm
2016: 668.5mm
2015: 599.0mm

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#1437108 - 14/10/2017 17:27 Re: Far North Queensland Dry Season - Cardwell Northwards - 2017 [Re: cold@28]
drivenunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2010
Posts: 1989
Loc: Kewarra Beach, Cairns
Originally Posted By: cold@28
Nice block DU - just build like they did in the old days. Elevated. Like that couple old farmhouses still standing at the edge of the cane near Caravonica. Beats me why people persist in building on slabs in the tropics. Just make sure your foundations/poles are strong enough.
Couldn't locate it on the flood map....near enough, but which block?
Have you checked the altitude using google earth? Looks like it's 4-7 metres most places. Not sure I'd feel comfortable under 10metres at the least, unless I had a beach frontage laugh


Good info. It seems that so many others are in the same boat. Thanks for the info. Someone also said that these flood maps were drawn way before this estate was put in - and they had created better draining. Can anyone confirm or deny?
_________________________
Bring on the rain!!!

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#1437113 - 14/10/2017 18:05 Re: Far North Queensland Dry Season - Cardwell Northwards - 2017 [Re: drivenunder]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2094
Loc: Chillagoe
Originally Posted By: drivenunder
Originally Posted By: cold@28
Nice block DU - just build like they did in the old days. Elevated. Like that couple old farmhouses still standing at the edge of the cane near Caravonica. Beats me why people persist in building on slabs in the tropics. Just make sure your foundations/poles are strong enough.
Couldn't locate it on the flood map....near enough, but which block?
Have you checked the altitude using google earth? Looks like it's 4-7 metres most places. Not sure I'd feel comfortable under 10metres at the least, unless I had a beach frontage laugh


Good info. It seems that so many others are in the same boat. Thanks for the info. Someone also said that these flood maps were drawn way before this estate was put in - and they had created better draining. Can anyone confirm or deny?


They may have created better drainage, but think about just how high 4 or 5 metres is. Not very. Look at the surrounding land and vegetation. Might be an idea to make enquiries with your insurance company to see whether you are covered for everything imaginable. Make sure it's explicit. That's probably the most important thing.

Sorry I sound so negative, I'm a control freak. It's a bugger with a limited budget. I'd just make sure my insurance is top of the scale, be prepared to evacuate if necessary, and just go for it and enjoy myself.
_________________________
Chillagoe
January: 393.0mm | February: 221.0mm | March: 153.5mm | April: 11.5mm | May: 8.5mm | June: 2.0mm | July: 2.0mm | August: 1.0mm
-------
YTD: 812.0mm
2016: 668.5mm
2015: 599.0mm

Top
#1437127 - 14/10/2017 18:53 Re: Far North Queensland Dry Season - Cardwell Northwards - 2017 [Re: cold@28]
drivenunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2010
Posts: 1989
Loc: Kewarra Beach, Cairns
Originally Posted By: cold@28
Originally Posted By: drivenunder
Originally Posted By: cold@28
Nice block DU - just build like they did in the old days. Elevated. Like that couple old farmhouses still standing at the edge of the cane near Caravonica. Beats me why people persist in building on slabs in the tropics. Just make sure your foundations/poles are strong enough.
Couldn't locate it on the flood map....near enough, but which block?
Have you checked the altitude using google earth? Looks like it's 4-7 metres most places. Not sure I'd feel comfortable under 10metres at the least, unless I had a beach frontage laugh


Good info. It seems that so many others are in the same boat. Thanks for the info. Someone also said that these flood maps were drawn way before this estate was put in - and they had created better draining. Can anyone confirm or deny?


They may have created better drainage, but think about just how high 4 or 5 metres is. Not very. Look at the surrounding land and vegetation. Might be an idea to make enquiries with your insurance company to see whether you are covered for everything imaginable. Make sure it's explicit. That's probably the most important thing.

Sorry I sound so negative, I'm a control freak. It's a bugger with a limited budget. I'd just make sure my insurance is top of the scale, be prepared to evacuate if necessary, and just go for it and enjoy myself.


Thanks for the info. According to Google Earth, its 8.5m elevation. And, I guess if I go under, the whole of Cairns and beaches will go under. Cairns is so low-lying - everyone is in the same boat. Certainly the entire street will go under, so a line of 30 houses would go under.

But, its a risk - this is only a risk of storm surge - regular flood maps show no problem.
_________________________
Bring on the rain!!!

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#1437160 - 14/10/2017 23:02 Re: Far North Queensland Dry Season - Cardwell Northwards - 2017 [Re: drivenunder]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2094
Loc: Chillagoe
Originally Posted By: drivenunder
Originally Posted By: cold@28
Originally Posted By: drivenunder
Originally Posted By: cold@28
Nice block DU - just build like they did in the old days. Elevated. Like that couple old farmhouses still standing at the edge of the cane near Caravonica. Beats me why people persist in building on slabs in the tropics. Just make sure your foundations/poles are strong enough.
Couldn't locate it on the flood map....near enough, but which block?
Have you checked the altitude using google earth? Looks like it's 4-7 metres most places. Not sure I'd feel comfortable under 10metres at the least, unless I had a beach frontage laugh


Good info. It seems that so many others are in the same boat. Thanks for the info. Someone also said that these flood maps were drawn way before this estate was put in - and they had created better draining. Can anyone confirm or deny?


They may have created better drainage, but think about just how high 4 or 5 metres is. Not very. Look at the surrounding land and vegetation. Might be an idea to make enquiries with your insurance company to see whether you are covered for everything imaginable. Make sure it's explicit. That's probably the most important thing.

Sorry I sound so negative, I'm a control freak. It's a bugger with a limited budget. I'd just make sure my insurance is top of the scale, be prepared to evacuate if necessary, and just go for it and enjoy myself.


Thanks for the info. According to Google Earth, its 8.5m elevation. And, I guess if I go under, the whole of Cairns and beaches will go under. Cairns is so low-lying - everyone is in the same boat. Certainly the entire street will go under, so a line of 30 houses would go under.

But, its a risk - this is only a risk of storm surge - regular flood maps show no problem.


8.5 metres sounds a lot better. I musta been in the wrong spot. Good luck with everything.
_________________________
Chillagoe
January: 393.0mm | February: 221.0mm | March: 153.5mm | April: 11.5mm | May: 8.5mm | June: 2.0mm | July: 2.0mm | August: 1.0mm
-------
YTD: 812.0mm
2016: 668.5mm
2015: 599.0mm

Top
#1437170 - 15/10/2017 00:22 Re: Far North Queensland Dry Season - Cardwell Northwards - 2017 [Re: drivenunder]
hickory Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/01/2006
Posts: 1152
Loc: Holloways Beach QLD
Originally Posted By: drivenunder
Hi guys,
A little off-topic but I need some advice. We are buying a block of land and building a house in the coming months. Or budget is limited, so we are looking at Smithfield Village Estate.

I have had a look at the flood maps, and it looks like lots of Oranges and Reds. With the Cairns Council Flood Maps,
Cheers,

Just build a high-set house and worry no more.

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#1437178 - 15/10/2017 07:24 Re: Far North Queensland Dry Season - Cardwell Northwards - 2017 [Re: hickory]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2094
Loc: Chillagoe
Originally Posted By: hickory
Originally Posted By: drivenunder
Hi guys,
A little off-topic but I need some advice. We are buying a block of land and building a house in the coming months. Or budget is limited, so we are looking at Smithfield Village Estate.

I have had a look at the flood maps, and it looks like lots of Oranges and Reds. With the Cairns Council Flood Maps,
Cheers,

Just build a high-set house and worry no more.


I agree, and have good insurance.
_________________________
Chillagoe
January: 393.0mm | February: 221.0mm | March: 153.5mm | April: 11.5mm | May: 8.5mm | June: 2.0mm | July: 2.0mm | August: 1.0mm
-------
YTD: 812.0mm
2016: 668.5mm
2015: 599.0mm

Top
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