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#1437122 - 14/10/2017 18:44 Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17??
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7354
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Here's what GFS has on offer at this early stage; ....if your in a Victorian area that has had recent useful rain of late, lucky you! - warm sunny spell, potentially followed by this:


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#1437134 - 14/10/2017 19:05 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
Anthony Violi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2001
Posts: 2336
Loc: Mt Barker - SA
GFS is the most bullish with the upper trough, the European not having a bar of it. Canadian sort of in between. I think it has a decent chance, but I cant see why the EC doesn't react to the Negative AAO. I suspect it may upgrade in the next 48 hours back to what it had yesterday
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#1437159 - 14/10/2017 22:51 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
Dawoodman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 1234
Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
I tend to find GFS with more of an idea with storms and EC with tropical weather...... although that has kinda changed in the past couple of years as the models keep getting updates (I think the increased resolution has put a spanner in the works for most).... I think GFS has been most consistent.... even if it is over cooking storm events.
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The storms are always beyond the horizon, behind the trees or parting above your head

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#1437317 - 15/10/2017 17:30 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2073
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
We live in hope with these early forecasts P, IME (limited lol) they look OK early on but habitually fail to deliver.

At this stage the rain front (ACCESS) is shown as travelling East at a fairly rapid pace.

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#1437479 - 16/10/2017 11:48 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
My report for the past couple of days from here in Belgrave... not that there's been much to report haha smile

October 13th 2017
Low: 10.8C High: 19.3C Rain: Less than 1mm

October 14th 2017
Low: 7.4C High: 21.8C Rain: 0mm

October 15th 2017
Low: 5.1C High: 25.1C Rain: 0mm

Only a few light showers early on Friday October 13th but that was that. Otherwise it was a run of dry mid-spring weather with chilly nights and gloriously fine, mild to warm and mostly sunny days! Nice to have a 24-hour temperature range of exactly 20C yesterday. smile

As for today, overnight low of 9.1C, currently around 22C. We had heavy fog over my neck of the woods this morning, but it began lifting around 9am, and by 10am it was gone. Yet another delightfully warm and sunny day ahead for Melbourne, with a forecast top of 26C, perfect for the half-way mark of Spring 2017!! grin

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#1437507 - 16/10/2017 14:52 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2608
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Hope moist from Queensland moves down far to SA boarder to help rain band get thicker when starts push upward to NE of NSW.

31c at 2.50pm Today is first hot for October since last September 23rd was 32.5c

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#1437551 - 16/10/2017 17:49 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7354
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Latest GFS:



...backed off a bit on rain as Samboz warned, will there be thunder???

For N Gippy, If we get the 1/2" possible above, ....it would feel like a flood! smile

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#1437585 - 16/10/2017 20:57 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
Twister1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 573
Loc: Chadstone Vic
Magic Magic day, love it keep it coming, about time such prefect day

2 more days of Bliss ahead so nice

5-15mm in parts on Thurs heavier in the hills and NE and in storms but quick moving.

Cooler cloudy days after with strong high in the bight not moving

Then looks like Wly belt abit weak builds back in for late Oct with regular weak fronts and troughs but very moblie
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#1437680 - 17/10/2017 12:57 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Reached a rather hot, muggy, mostly sunny 33.7C here in Belgrave yesterday, with the heat offset by a cooling breeze, especially towards evening, followed by a pleasantly balmy night! smile

It was my first day with a high of 32C/90F of more since March 27th when we hit 32.7C. It's also the first time in 2 years that we've hit 30C in October. My record October high is 36.5C on October 6th 2015 btw - same day as my hottest October night, when we dipped to only 25.1C.

As for today...

Overnight low of 16.7C, at the last check it was around 27C. Sunny with a refreshing breeze. Feels like summertime! grin


Edited by aussiestormfreak (17/10/2017 12:58)

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#1437682 - 17/10/2017 13:01 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
Twister1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 573
Loc: Chadstone Vic
PREFECT DAY

28c not a cloud light to mod N winds

LOVING IT
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Bring on the STORMS

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#1437694 - 17/10/2017 15:21 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2608
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Very nice blue sky of 30.8c at 3pm...

Cool change reach central Victoria around midday Thursday.

Stormcast chart shows thunderstorms are likely from Broken Hill all way down to Melbourne and upward to Albury "North East".

See what happens if right.

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#1437726 - 17/10/2017 17:59 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Twister1]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7354
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: Twister1
PREFECT DAY

28c not a cloud light to mod N winds

LOVING IT


Same here TW, are you doing a stint in Melbourne?

Soon to fire up BBQ, unlike yest. - no cold seabreeze has arrived here (yet) 31C max. Lovely evening.

A bit of modest Cu humilis evident above the higher peaks on the ranges to our North, good to see some moisture accumulating ahead of Thursdays change. BOM advising that thunder might be possible with it in these parts too.

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#1437727 - 17/10/2017 18:20 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7354
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Latest GFS prog's for the Thursday thundery change:



AccR similar, but marginally less rain overall when all Vic locations are considered.

IF this comes off, there will be some happy farmers (hay off paddock) out this way, .....and some unhappy ones (hay cut, but still in paddock come Thursday arvo). There shouldnt be many unhappy ones as this change has been very well forecast by BOM, ...as is usual.

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#1437744 - 17/10/2017 20:18 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2073
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Agree, 15-30mm on ACCESS R and GFS at the moment Petros, WATL not talking it up as much with a 10-15mm.

Be happy in this corner with any of the above !

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#1437749 - 17/10/2017 20:31 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1104
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Back home in Portland for the week, reached 31C here today, easily the hottest day since March. Looking like something similar tomorrow. Amazing how even the temps were across the state today I reckon you could put 90% of towns between 28-32C
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Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1437806 - 18/10/2017 09:11 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2073
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Beaut day loganski, just need that dash of rain (inches!) around here and east.

ACCESS this morning not as good as last nights, the devil will once again be in the detail of just what areas and for how long it falls.

Less confident today but WATL has us in the 10 - 25mm zones.

Dried off even more in the last two weeks, getting past the joke!

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#1437875 - 18/10/2017 15:00 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2073
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
34.7C here at the mo' with a gusty breeze, the little moisture left in the ground going on days like this.

Doesn't feel that hot with RH of only 26%.

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#1437887 - 18/10/2017 15:36 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2608
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
32.7c at 3.30pm of 23% humidity and uppers got lots moist starting crash in SA to move Eastwards.


Edited by chasers addict (18/10/2017 15:38)

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#1437903 - 18/10/2017 17:17 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2608
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Hope Thunderstorms fire up in Western Victoria tomorrow morning as enough Precipitable Water uppers to compress push to North East.

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#1437908 - 18/10/2017 17:57 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Reached a hot, muggy top of 34.6C here in Belgrave yesterday, with the heat again offset by a nice cooling breeze. Skies were almost cloud-free, except for some high cloud that appeared to the southwest at sunset.

Another comfortable night followed, with a low of 16.5C this morning, and we reached a high 35.0C today. smile

My last +35C was almost exactly 7 months ago, when we hit 36.4C on March 19th.

Today was a carbon-copy of yesterday, although it was a tad hotter. Plus it was quite windy this morning!

At the last check it was around 29C. Will tonight be my first +20C night for the season?

Hoping for at least 10-20mm of rain with some good thunderstorm action tomorrow! smile

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