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#1437122 - 14/10/2017 18:44 Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17??
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6880
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Here's what GFS has on offer at this early stage; ....if your in a Victorian area that has had recent useful rain of late, lucky you! - warm sunny spell, potentially followed by this:


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#1437134 - 14/10/2017 19:05 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
Anthony Violi Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2001
Posts: 2326
Loc: Soon to be Mt Barker - SA
GFS is the most bullish with the upper trough, the European not having a bar of it. Canadian sort of in between. I think it has a decent chance, but I cant see why the EC doesn't react to the Negative AAO. I suspect it may upgrade in the next 48 hours back to what it had yesterday
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#1437159 - 14/10/2017 22:51 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
Dawoodman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 1229
Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
I tend to find GFS with more of an idea with storms and EC with tropical weather...... although that has kinda changed in the past couple of years as the models keep getting updates (I think the increased resolution has put a spanner in the works for most).... I think GFS has been most consistent.... even if it is over cooking storm events.
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#1437317 - 15/10/2017 17:30 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1936
Loc: Sale, NthGippsland, S/E VIC
We live in hope with these early forecasts P, IME (limited lol) they look OK early on but habitually fail to deliver.

At this stage the rain front (ACCESS) is shown as travelling East at a fairly rapid pace.
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2018 RAINFALL. JAN 53.4MM FEB 14MM MARCH 18MM APRIL-

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#1437479 - 16/10/2017 11:48 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6006
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
My report for the past couple of days from here in Belgrave... not that there's been much to report haha smile

October 13th 2017
Low: 10.8C High: 19.3C Rain: Less than 1mm

October 14th 2017
Low: 7.4C High: 21.8C Rain: 0mm

October 15th 2017
Low: 5.1C High: 25.1C Rain: 0mm

Only a few light showers early on Friday October 13th but that was that. Otherwise it was a run of dry mid-spring weather with chilly nights and gloriously fine, mild to warm and mostly sunny days! Nice to have a 24-hour temperature range of exactly 20C yesterday. smile

As for today, overnight low of 9.1C, currently around 22C. We had heavy fog over my neck of the woods this morning, but it began lifting around 9am, and by 10am it was gone. Yet another delightfully warm and sunny day ahead for Melbourne, with a forecast top of 26C, perfect for the half-way mark of Spring 2017!! grin

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#1437507 - 16/10/2017 14:52 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2473
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Hope moist from Queensland moves down far to SA boarder to help rain band get thicker when starts push upward to NE of NSW.

31c at 2.50pm Today is first hot for October since last September 23rd was 32.5c

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#1437551 - 16/10/2017 17:49 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6880
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Latest GFS:



...backed off a bit on rain as Samboz warned, will there be thunder???

For N Gippy, If we get the 1/2" possible above, ....it would feel like a flood! smile

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#1437585 - 16/10/2017 20:57 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
Twister1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 552
Loc: Chadstone Vic
Magic Magic day, love it keep it coming, about time such prefect day

2 more days of Bliss ahead so nice

5-15mm in parts on Thurs heavier in the hills and NE and in storms but quick moving.

Cooler cloudy days after with strong high in the bight not moving

Then looks like Wly belt abit weak builds back in for late Oct with regular weak fronts and troughs but very moblie
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#1437680 - 17/10/2017 12:57 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6006
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Reached a rather hot, muggy, mostly sunny 33.7C here in Belgrave yesterday, with the heat offset by a cooling breeze, especially towards evening, followed by a pleasantly balmy night! smile

It was my first day with a high of 32C/90F of more since March 27th when we hit 32.7C. It's also the first time in 2 years that we've hit 30C in October. My record October high is 36.5C on October 6th 2015 btw - same day as my hottest October night, when we dipped to only 25.1C.

As for today...

Overnight low of 16.7C, at the last check it was around 27C. Sunny with a refreshing breeze. Feels like summertime! grin


Edited by aussiestormfreak (17/10/2017 12:58)

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#1437682 - 17/10/2017 13:01 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
Twister1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 552
Loc: Chadstone Vic
PREFECT DAY

28c not a cloud light to mod N winds

LOVING IT
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#1437694 - 17/10/2017 15:21 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
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Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2473
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Very nice blue sky of 30.8c at 3pm...

Cool change reach central Victoria around midday Thursday.

Stormcast chart shows thunderstorms are likely from Broken Hill all way down to Melbourne and upward to Albury "North East".

See what happens if right.

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#1437726 - 17/10/2017 17:59 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Twister1]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6880
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: Twister1
PREFECT DAY

28c not a cloud light to mod N winds

LOVING IT


Same here TW, are you doing a stint in Melbourne?

Soon to fire up BBQ, unlike yest. - no cold seabreeze has arrived here (yet) 31C max. Lovely evening.

A bit of modest Cu humilis evident above the higher peaks on the ranges to our North, good to see some moisture accumulating ahead of Thursdays change. BOM advising that thunder might be possible with it in these parts too.

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#1437727 - 17/10/2017 18:20 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6880
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Latest GFS prog's for the Thursday thundery change:



AccR similar, but marginally less rain overall when all Vic locations are considered.

IF this comes off, there will be some happy farmers (hay off paddock) out this way, .....and some unhappy ones (hay cut, but still in paddock come Thursday arvo). There shouldnt be many unhappy ones as this change has been very well forecast by BOM, ...as is usual.

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#1437744 - 17/10/2017 20:18 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1936
Loc: Sale, NthGippsland, S/E VIC
Agree, 15-30mm on ACCESS R and GFS at the moment Petros, WATL not talking it up as much with a 10-15mm.

Be happy in this corner with any of the above !
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#1437749 - 17/10/2017 20:31 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1026
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Back home in Portland for the week, reached 31C here today, easily the hottest day since March. Looking like something similar tomorrow. Amazing how even the temps were across the state today I reckon you could put 90% of towns between 28-32C
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#1437806 - 18/10/2017 09:11 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1936
Loc: Sale, NthGippsland, S/E VIC
Beaut day loganski, just need that dash of rain (inches!) around here and east.

ACCESS this morning not as good as last nights, the devil will once again be in the detail of just what areas and for how long it falls.

Less confident today but WATL has us in the 10 - 25mm zones.

Dried off even more in the last two weeks, getting past the joke!
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#1437875 - 18/10/2017 15:00 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1936
Loc: Sale, NthGippsland, S/E VIC
34.7C here at the mo' with a gusty breeze, the little moisture left in the ground going on days like this.

Doesn't feel that hot with RH of only 26%.
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2018 RAINFALL. JAN 53.4MM FEB 14MM MARCH 18MM APRIL-

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#1437887 - 18/10/2017 15:36 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
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Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2473
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
32.7c at 3.30pm of 23% humidity and uppers got lots moist starting crash in SA to move Eastwards.


Edited by chasers addict (18/10/2017 15:38)

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#1437903 - 18/10/2017 17:17 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2473
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Hope Thunderstorms fire up in Western Victoria tomorrow morning as enough Precipitable Water uppers to compress push to North East.

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#1437908 - 18/10/2017 17:57 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
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Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6006
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Reached a hot, muggy top of 34.6C here in Belgrave yesterday, with the heat again offset by a nice cooling breeze. Skies were almost cloud-free, except for some high cloud that appeared to the southwest at sunset.

Another comfortable night followed, with a low of 16.5C this morning, and we reached a high 35.0C today. smile

My last +35C was almost exactly 7 months ago, when we hit 36.4C on March 19th.

Today was a carbon-copy of yesterday, although it was a tad hotter. Plus it was quite windy this morning!

At the last check it was around 29C. Will tonight be my first +20C night for the season?

Hoping for at least 10-20mm of rain with some good thunderstorm action tomorrow! smile

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#1437914 - 18/10/2017 18:51 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
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Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6298
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Wow hotter than Mildura, amazing.

25.7c here at home for a high.
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#1437933 - 18/10/2017 21:29 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2473
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Looks like beginning thundery activity cells in West of Victoria at moment seen on radar.

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#1437943 - 18/10/2017 23:22 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
Twister1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 552
Loc: Chadstone Vic
Yeah think you might be over reading tad there at 35c hottest in the state hmmm.

Petros sadly here long term atm lol, but the last 3 days have been magic though thats it for a few weeks maybe Nov we get another burst like this

Wet, Stormy, Warm, windy, 24 hours ahead.
East of a line Mildura Melb is gonna do well rain wise easy 15-30mm most and hills and NE more like 30-50mm isol 70mm in hills.
Gippy bit less with shadow still 10-20mm for most should be doable
Little in the NW sadly they need it there

Lots of storms in the next 18 hours most should get something

Winter like pattern next week but still 18-24c most days with SW flow

Enjoy the rain next 24 hours.



Edited by Twister1 (18/10/2017 23:23)
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#1437944 - 18/10/2017 23:40 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1026
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Looking like a very warm night state wide, most station still sitting in the low to mid 20s - (still 28 in Mildura) - Could be a couple of high min October records broken tonight.
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#1437945 - 18/10/2017 23:58 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6006
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
A rather warm, humid night here in Belgrave atm! For the past few hours, the temperature has been stagnating a little under 23C. crazy

While it won't be anywhere near my hottest October night ever (current record high October minimum is 25.1C on the morning of October 6th 2015), it's very likely to be my first 20C+ night for the season.

My last 20C+ night was 20.5C on March 15th.

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#1437990 - 19/10/2017 09:05 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1936
Loc: Sale, NthGippsland, S/E VIC
Hot northerly here at the mo', 28C & saw just under 29C earlier, after hottish night min round 15C.

Mt Moornapa was warmer with a 19C+ min overnight.

We won't see rain until the wind swings to the W, and then probably <10mm by the look of it.

Now if the QLD'ers could send a little drop or two we'd be most grateful grin
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2018 RAINFALL. JAN 53.4MM FEB 14MM MARCH 18MM APRIL-

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#1438013 - 19/10/2017 11:02 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2473
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
hard to sleep overnight of 18c and now at 11am 21.7c with heavy rain humdity of 78%.

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#1438025 - 19/10/2017 11:40 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
Twister1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 552
Loc: Chadstone Vic
Wow the moisture and dynamics havent really linked up as planed, but showers and thunderstorm should develop in the W NW in coming hours and move east this arvo evening and over night

Light rain here on and off last hour no wind
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#1438037 - 19/10/2017 12:30 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6006
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Dipped to 20.5C last night, so my hottest night for the season so far, and my first 20C+ night since March 15th 2017 when we also dipped to 20.5C. Go figure! crazy

It was quite a stifling night, and like Chasers Addict I found it hard to sleep - at 3am it was around 24C with blustery northerly winds! eek

Been a humid, wet, mostly cloudy start to the day, with the temperature dropping to 19.0C around an hour ago and it's currently fluctuating around 19-20C. Collected 1.1mm of rain from this band of activity. smile

Now it's a waiting game... hope some good storms will start erupting high over the Western Plains and north into the Mallee and then rip across Melbourne this arvo! smile

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#1438038 - 19/10/2017 12:33 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2473
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Clear and sunny after 2mm rain drying up into humidity and temp has rise to 29c fast and hope something in West .

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#1438066 - 19/10/2017 15:02 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Twister1]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 746
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Originally Posted By: Twister1
Wow the moisture and dynamics havent really linked up as planed,


Think you're right Twister. Very dark around here most of the day but no rain. Radar shows thin band about to hit Bairnsdale but there doesn't seem to be much in prospect behind it. Maybe I'm just not understanding.

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#1438071 - 19/10/2017 15:18 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: ThunderBob]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 702
Loc: Knox, Melbourne, VIC
Originally Posted By: ThunderBob
Think you're right Twister. Very dark around here most of the day but no rain. Radar shows thin band about to hit Bairnsdale but there doesn't seem to be much in prospect behind it. Maybe I'm just not understanding.


It's really gone bang now in a North / South line from Melbourne up to Southern NSW, you may get something move East out of that?

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#1438076 - 19/10/2017 15:39 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 746
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Thanks Balmz. The rain band moved though producing beautiful rain/dust aroma but not much else.

Yes. Will have to wait to see what that next band will do.

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#1438079 - 19/10/2017 16:21 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2473
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Looks like cool change moving in Bendigo now W to SW and humidity is gone to dryer cooler with low clouds.

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#1438083 - 19/10/2017 16:36 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6006
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Well that was a real treat! 30 minutes of fun - another direct-hit! wink

It was amazing how over the course of about an hour the radar literally exploded to the east and southeast of the City with a whole cluster of powerful storms taking shape. The cell that took aim at my area here in Belgrave erupted between St Kilda and Oakleigh around 2:30pm and sped east/southeast - straight at us, growing larger and intensifying as it did so!

At 2:45pm I noticed an enormous cumulonimbus towering just to our southwest; at 2:51pm I heard our first rumble of thunder.

Over the space of 10-15 minutes it got incredibly dark and the thunder increased in frequency to around once every 15-30 seconds, with angry, potentially dangerous lightning just to the south/southwest.

I noticed a rather flat, dark, rainfree base immediately to the west, with a few lowerings, but I cannot confirm whether it was a wall cloud (with the potential for tornado to form) or whether this was merely a shelf cloud ahead of the precipitation. The storm was moving towards me so quickly and the lightning was so close that it was far too dangerous to stay outside for long!

A severe thunderstorm warning for damaging winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall was issued around this time btw.

At about 3pm the thunder and lightning abruptly ceased, but we had 20 minutes of torrential rain! Our driveway turned into a river, and the rain was coming in at a bit of an angle due to strong winds. smile

By 3:30pm the storm was gone.

Collected 8.4mm of rain during the storm, with the peak rainfall rate being 121.9mm/hr. And the temperature dropped from 24C to 21C as the storm swept through.

Peaked at 28.2C here in Belgrave this arvo. Currently around 22C.

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#1438088 - 19/10/2017 16:55 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2473
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Aussiestormfreak u had lucky day and nothing for me as storms started far East Bendigo. Now temptaure is 25c

We have wait next cut off upper low next Wednesday should be interesting for Victoria.

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#1438098 - 19/10/2017 18:25 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1936
Loc: Sale, NthGippsland, S/E VIC
Sun was out 1/2hr ago but hugely black to the W and down S.

It started to "POUR" some foreign wet substance I read about in Primary School, (grade 4, best three yrs of my life), at 1813hrs and still coming down, can hear some thunder to the S or S/W.

Won't be more than 20 minutes off you TB, that bit to your N looks a little bit to far off ?
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2018 RAINFALL. JAN 53.4MM FEB 14MM MARCH 18MM APRIL-

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#1438100 - 19/10/2017 18:39 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 746
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Good stuff Samboz. That stuff is probably what they call "rain".

Strange feel and light with rain band approaching. Sale had 11mm (approx) in about same number of minutes. Band seems to be dissipating as it approaches.

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#1438103 - 19/10/2017 18:55 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1936
Loc: Sale, NthGippsland, S/E VIC
Moving slower TB, 8mm and dizzle here now.

Sale is up to 14mm now, it was certainly extremely black down that way while the sun was still shining here earlier.

RAAF Personnel were telling their neighbours in town about the approaching hail/thunderstorm expected to impact around 1730hrs'ish.

Calm, 20C and pretty much all over here now.

Good luck TB, hoping you do well and get a whisper of green in the place.
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2018 RAINFALL. JAN 53.4MM FEB 14MM MARCH 18MM APRIL-

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#1438105 - 19/10/2017 19:03 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6880
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Got a handy 7mm of rain from a NE'ly surge out of a large storm travelling along the Strezleckiis towards Sale later afternoon. Getting rain from a storm to Maffra's south is very unusual, ....but welcome! smile

Here's what it looked like from the 6th fairway of Royal Maffra before I got drenched.......



...the hose in view is the only reason the fairway isnt as dry as the rough areas! - drought-like conditions in Nth Gippy atm.


Edited by Petros (19/10/2017 19:04)

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#1438113 - 19/10/2017 19:27 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
rstewart84 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/01/2007
Posts: 2083
Loc: Kalangadoo,South Australia
It seems like mother nature has banished winter back to its lair given the recent temps in SA/VIC lately hopefully its a good sign of a change back to traditional summer temps this year that would be nice if there is a few warmish/hot days in December as i got plans to head to the grampians for a weekend away

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#1438117 - 19/10/2017 19:43 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 746
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Front-like change here: temp dropped suddenly, light dropped significantly and suddenly and wind turned to W/SW and strengthened. Low dark cloud moved under the broken convective cloud - all quite spectacular.

Rain followed some minutes later: Bairnsdale Airport AWS shows 15mm+ but here there was 2-3 minutes of heavy rain then dropped to spotting. I doubt we got 5mm but will report in morning.

Must say WATL and official forecasts were about spot on!

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#1438122 - 19/10/2017 20:01 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6298
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
0.4mm and that was from a couple of attempts
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#1438136 - 19/10/2017 21:00 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1235
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Good to hear that u guys up east had
Some half decent clear stuff fall for
U 👍👍
We had 14mm up here with that storm
Rolling through.

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#1438137 - 19/10/2017 21:02 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1235
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Feels rather cold now lol
Temp has seen 30c up here the
Last two days and now it's 12c

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#1438138 - 19/10/2017 21:16 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
Dawoodman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 1229
Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
I guess we try again next week for a proper storm day.... need some flashes at night...... Need some new lighting shots haha
_________________________
The storms are always beyond the horizon, behind the trees or parting above your head

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#1438156 - 20/10/2017 06:49 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
Alexia Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/12/2002
Posts: 583
Loc: Corryong
15mm rain here last 24 hours[32,5mm this month].17c this morning and the country looks amazing.

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#1438159 - 20/10/2017 07:27 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 746
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
6mm here ... most of that in a couple of minutes.

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#1438176 - 20/10/2017 09:32 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1936
Loc: Sale, NthGippsland, S/E VIC
Excellent pic petros, looked like that at home also.

8mm here over about 25 minutes.

Greens the grass up overnight, not heaps but very valuable to keep the garden going.
_________________________
2018 RAINFALL. JAN 53.4MM FEB 14MM MARCH 18MM APRIL-

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#1438201 - 20/10/2017 12:43 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
liberator Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/11/2010
Posts: 314
Loc: Kyabram
Lots of storms around us here but nothing right on top. I hate to say disappointed as it looked so promising. The joy of being a weather nerd! I think we got all up 1 mm. But good falls around us and up in the hills it seems. Got damn warm up here after the clouds parted and the sun broke through.

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#1438335 - 21/10/2017 17:50 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6880
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Just on 7mm at my place. 10mm at Royal Maffra apparently.

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#1438448 - 22/10/2017 15:24 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6006
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
My post for the past few days including today from here in Belgrave...

The remainder of the Thursday afternoon (in the wake of the severe thunderstorms we had) was breezy and mostly cloudy (but dry with no further rain) with falling temperatures as a cool change/cold front moved through.

Persistent onshore flow from the south/southwest maintained cool to mild, mostly cloudy and at times breezy conditions during Friday, Saturday, and today; whenever the Sun came out it felt nice and strong! This onshore airstream was further enhanced by the passage of another cold front that brushed Victoria last night.

Friday and Saturday were generally dry with only the occasional light spit of rain, but much more substantial shower activity followed in the wake of last night's cold front! smile

Friday October 20th 2017

Low: 9.6C High: 19.6C Rain: 9.5mm


Saturday October 21st 2017

Low: 9.6C High: 18.6C Rain: Trace


Sunday October 22nd 2017

Low: 9.6C High: 18.8C Rain: 2.1mm

Since 9am this morning, an additional 3.2mm of rain has fallen.


Edited by aussiestormfreak (22/10/2017 15:25)

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#1438544 - 23/10/2017 10:03 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6006
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 10.5C, currently around 12C. Cloudy and drizzly.

Collected another 1.1mm of rain last night, so 4.3mm in total for the last 24 hours. smile

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#1438628 - 23/10/2017 18:11 Re: Vic - stormy(??) change and much needed rain 18-20/10/17?? [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6006
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Reached a top of 24.1C here in Belgrave today.

It was a gloomy, chilly morning, but the clouds broke up around lunch hour, leaving us with a gloriously fine, mild to warm and mostly sunny afternoon with cooling breezes. Perfect for being in the City! smile

Currently around 17C with increasing high cloud.

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