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#1438085 - 19/10/2017 16:40 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Kino Online   content
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1272
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Homer what's it saying in the forecast for your area? For me 10-20mm (WxZone) & 15-20mm (BoM) and 17.4mm (YR.NO on this am's run). Pretty consistent around that 20mm mark (which would be the heaviest fall since 20 May frown )

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#1438087 - 19/10/2017 16:54 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3597
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Now that the rain is about to resume, I might set out the final stats for Sydney's dry spell. Stats are for OH:

Sept 17 - Oct 19 (33 days): zero
Aug 29 - Oct 19 (52 days): 0.4 mm (Aug 28 was the last fall of 1mm or more)
Aug 5 - Oct 19 (76 days): 1.8 mm (Aug 4 saw 13.8mm, the last fall 2mm or more).

From memory, OH's longest dry spell on record was 47 days from July to early Sept 1995. The second longest is 34 on a few occasions.

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#1438091 - 19/10/2017 17:34 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5289
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Kino
Homer what's it saying in the forecast for your area? For me 10-20mm (WxZone) & 15-20mm (BoM) and 17.4mm (YR.NO on this am's run). Pretty consistent around that 20mm mark (which would be the heaviest fall since 20 May frown )


Pretty similar numbers to yours Kino.
I only look at BOM. Richmond is the closest forecast area to me although temp wise, it can sometimes be quite different. Going for 20-25 mm's.

Edit.
They are quite extraordinary dry numbers Steve. Your waterfall pics tell the story.
Thanks for posting.


Edited by Homer (19/10/2017 17:35)

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#1438120 - 19/10/2017 19:53 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Kino Online   content
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1272
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Radar starting to look better. Already some rain in the Shoalhaven.

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#1438124 - 19/10/2017 20:07 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Kino Online   content
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1272
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Spitting here now grin

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#1438134 - 19/10/2017 20:55 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5289
Loc: Dural
System appears to be a teeny weeny bit slower in progressing than what the BOM was forecasting earlier today. Maybe a good thing for extra development.

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#1438135 - 19/10/2017 20:57 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Homer]
Kino Online   content
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1272
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Homer
System appears to be a teeny weeny bit slower in progressing than what the BOM was forecasting earlier today. Maybe a good thing for extra development.


Here's hoping. Was a lot stormier than forecast as well. Sadly we'll have to much gunk - best we can hope for is maybe something embedded.

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#1438139 - 19/10/2017 21:35 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Believe it or not it's raining quite heavily here west of Bowral.

Feels like eons since the last time I heard rain like this!


Edited by Wave Rider (19/10/2017 21:37)
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1438140 - 19/10/2017 21:37 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Wave Rider]
Kino Online   content
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1272
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Believe it or not it's raining quite heavily here west of Bowral.


Yay! Send it over the edge please smile

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#1438141 - 19/10/2017 21:38 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Hoping so Kino!
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1438142 - 19/10/2017 21:53 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Rainbow Spirit Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/11/2010
Posts: 475
Loc: Green Valley, just west of Liv...
Does anyone know what changes were made to the Terry Hills radar recently? ATM it still appears to over rate the rainfall as it did in the past. While Appin seems to underrate rainfall.

Meanwhile Captains Flat seems to be more like Terry Hills.

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#1438144 - 19/10/2017 22:05 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
No idea RS.

We should get about 10mm tomorrow around Sydney and Wollongong, perhaps 15mm up here. It's coming from the west though so maybe it will end up being less than projected for the coast.

PS: I love my impeccable timing of catching the cold weather up here. 28C today but 17 predicted tomorrow and 18 Saturday. frown But then it warms back up when I go home.



Edited by Wave Rider (19/10/2017 22:07)
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1438148 - 19/10/2017 22:31 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Online   content
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Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3597
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Some pretty useful falls in the South West, Riverina and Central West, including 29mm at Wagga (Duane will be pleased), 11mm at Albury, 17mm at Griffith and 13mm at Temora. The South Coast is also getting rain. Nothing recorded in the Central Tablelands or Illawarra yet, but it's on its way.

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#1438149 - 19/10/2017 22:33 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Floodhunta Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/11/2002
Posts: 617
Loc: Bowral asl 690m
Can't wait. Nice to see the upgrade in Bowral to 10-15 after this mornings downgrade. Hoping for an embedded storm or two.

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#1438151 - 19/10/2017 22:56 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Max744 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/11/2002
Posts: 1557
Loc: Cooks Gap - Kingsgrove NSW
Still waiting for it to get here to Cooks Gap. The satellite is starting to look pretty chunky though out towards Wellington and Dubbo. Hopefully we'll get some useful falls out of it.

Hope you took your jacket with you Reills poke

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#1438157 - 20/10/2017 06:55 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Rainbow Spirit Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/11/2010
Posts: 475
Loc: Green Valley, just west of Liv...
Currently at 5.5mm here at Green Valley, I think we might struggle to 10mm. It's surprising how little rain excites the soul after such a long dry spell.

I remember stopping at a house to get some water on a cycling trip in England some time ago, and I commented to the lady that usually in Australia we just use a garden tap to fill our bottles. 'Why would you have a tap in the garden? It rains, she said.


Edited by Rainbow Spirit (20/10/2017 06:56)

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#1438158 - 20/10/2017 07:22 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Yep sure did Max, always need to be prepared for cold weather here even in summer.

RS I think you're right, at least for eastern Sydney and the Illawarra, but you may scrape close to 10mm. Just 5mm down in Wollongong, it's amazing how much models underestimate rain from the west. I even compensated for that in my forecast for here but still not as much as you'd think.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1438162 - 20/10/2017 07:48 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Perfect Storm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/10/2005
Posts: 861
Loc: Carramar (Fairfield), Sydney, ...
Woke up at 430 and could hear the water flowing over the balconies in my complex. Gave me the impressionn it had rained a lot more than it has.

Still best we've had in a while and may just scrap to 10mm as others have said. Beautiful morning to wake up too.



On the plus side both GFS and WATL seem to be indicating some follow up precipitation towards towards the end of the next 7-8 days. We'll wait and see.
_________________________
The pitter patter of rain falling is the sweetest sound you'll ever hear.

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#1438167 - 20/10/2017 08:18 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3597
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
It's solid grey with light winds and light steady rain here, after another warm night. Most of Sydney has received about 6 to 9 mm, an amount of rain which would normally not attract comment beyond the odd whinge. The rain is accumulating steadily at maybe 2mm per hour.

There's a Southerly change moving up the coast. It passed through Kiama just before 8:00AM. The Terry Hills radar looks pretty full but there seems to be a clearing edge (to the rain) with the change.


Edited by Steve777 (20/10/2017 08:20)
Edit Reason: Tidy up

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#1438170 - 20/10/2017 09:01 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1272
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
10m at home; only 6mm at Albion Park, 8mm at Bellambi and only 7mm at Kiama (surprised given the more southerly stream of showers).

Appin defin underestimates rain in this stratiform type events - i.e. it's pissin' down here in the City yet only light green on radar. Sadly can see lighter patches to the south; hopefully tho we still get these fat showers drifting in from the s/se.

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