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#1437817 - 18/10/2017 10:02 NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1272
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
OK - models are firming on a decent widespread rain event now for most of NSW.

The highest accumulations according to models will be northern and north-eastern NSW with totals up to 60-100mm forecast.

The good thing for me (Illawarra and Metro) is the more easterly feed pumping into the trough/front as it arrives; and the moister SE'erly stream behind it as opposed to the drier SW'erly crap we've had.

The good news is that for Sydney & Illawarra basins some decent totals are also forecast:
GFS - 20-40mm
CMC - 20-30mm
EC - only 10mm frown
ACCESS - 10 - 30mm
WRF - 5-10mm

FINGERS crossed GFS nails it!

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#1437822 - 18/10/2017 10:14 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9844
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Well done Kino smile

Good to see such a well defined band of precip move across the state like it hopefully will.

My son not impressed re his wedding day - but the greater good etc smile Might hire him out as a rain bringer. smile

We seem at last to have broken into a happier weather pattern regarding rain. Finally feeling more confident of semi regular events now.

Bit of a worry that EC is the one with the lowest totals. Ah well - see what happens. smile

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#1437829 - 18/10/2017 10:40 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: DaveM]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1272
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: DaveM
Well done Kino smile

Good to see such a well defined band of precip move across the state like it hopefully will.

My son not impressed re his wedding day - but the greater good etc smile Might hire him out as a rain bringer. smile

We seem at last to have broken into a happier weather pattern regarding rain. Finally feeling more confident of semi regular events now.

Bit of a worry that EC is the one with the lowest totals. Ah well - see what happens. smile


Looks to have mainly cleared most of the State by Sat morning - overcast conditions are perfect for weddings - no shadows smile

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#1437830 - 18/10/2017 10:50 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Kino Online   content
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1272
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Agree re: EC; hope it massively upgrades overnight.

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#1437843 - 18/10/2017 11:37 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Online   content
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Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3597
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
I see that Bathurst is now going for 10-25mm for Friday in the BOM forecast, or 10-28 including late Thursday. Orange is going for 15-29.

The forecast for Richmond (close to Cattai area) on Saturday is overcast and a bit cool, but no rain.

EDIT: maybe this afternoon's forecast will up the rainfall totals. The models do look more favourable for rain than the forecast is suggesting.

EDIT2: 850 temps look quite cool on Saturday, a Wintry 2-3 degrees over Sydney (Access).


Edited by Steve777 (18/10/2017 11:44)

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#1437845 - 18/10/2017 11:47 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1272
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
The sharper the upper cold pool the better the rainfall chances you'd think IF the easterly inflow continues. Plenty of chunky Cu in the Illawarra this AM.

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#1437854 - 18/10/2017 12:30 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9844
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
The wedding day is Friday smile gunna be wet it seems, weather gods got him with that one. Que Sera Sera. smile

Yes the nights will quickly cool for Saturday/Sunday out here. I think Saturday might be 3 or 4 in the morning out here.

Humidity already building out here. My skin has gone clammy, shirt getting annoying. smile

I am a ridiculously sensitive humidity/moisture sensing instrument. Humidity tends to make me a little agro - hence I stay away from the coast smile

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#1437856 - 18/10/2017 12:42 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1272
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
The human hydrometer lol

Look at that moisture infeed, coming all the way from Central Pacific!



Edited by Kino (18/10/2017 12:43)

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#1437858 - 18/10/2017 12:52 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9844
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Indeed Kino, many who know me stir me heaps about my sensitivity to the tiniest change in humidity grin

But I can't help what my body feels smile

That's a great looking vapour image - was just looking at the same thing on my LAYERS page smile

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#1437897 - 18/10/2017 16:38 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5289
Loc: Dural
DaveM - you've got to stop wearing those silk shirts to work!

As for Friday, the latest forecast for Richmond http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/richmond.shtml has increased rainfall totals to 15-30 mm's, but says it will fall mainly during the morning. Looks like this will be a fast moving system so hopefully, by the time the ceremony takes place, things will have cleared somewhat.
Saturdays forecast has cooled down further with a top of only 21 for Richmond and 19 for the city. No rain or showers forecast though.

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#1437941 - 18/10/2017 23:05 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1272
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Well great news is ACCESS C has had an upgrade today, now going for 20-40mm for Metro & Illawarra on Thursday overnight & into Friday.

GFS, EC & CMC all had downgrades lol.

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#1437998 - 19/10/2017 09:49 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1272
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
ACCESS is hanging on to 10-30mm falls within the Metro & Illawarra areas. GfS has come back on-board to an extent; EC has also upgraded overnight now liking 15-25mm.

Most agree rain should start overnight and persist well into tomorrow tapering off tomorrow night. Straws crossed!

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#1438002 - 19/10/2017 09:53 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9844
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
grin Homer grin

Yep wedding aside - let's hope everyone gets a good drink out of this. It's greening nicely out here after last weeks showers - this will hopefully add nicely to that smile

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#1438036 - 19/10/2017 12:17 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1272
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
The change / trough is starting to push through far southern NSW now, with some decent showers attached.

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#1438049 - 19/10/2017 13:55 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1272
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Great moisture haze and fat cu already building over the Hills *fingers crossed*

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#1438074 - 19/10/2017 15:25 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1272
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Showers starting to appear now to the west; with the main line to the sw really thickening nicely.

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#1438077 - 19/10/2017 15:45 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1272
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Severe storms now on it's northern flank. Must be some decent cold air up there.

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#1438080 - 19/10/2017 16:28 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1272
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
ACCESS C staying strong with 10-30mm now; WRF 20-40mm, GFS 10-40mm spread across the Metro & Illawarra pushing into the Hunter. Still widespread 20-60mm falls across the State with isolated pockets up to 100mm!

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#1438081 - 19/10/2017 16:28 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5289
Loc: Dural
Although short lived, I'm really looking forward to this system.
I just want to hear some rain on the roof. I mean, some proper rain!!! I want to see some green in the lawn.
And..... I want my car washed.

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#1438082 - 19/10/2017 16:32 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Homer]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1272
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Homer
Although short lived, I'm really looking forward to this system.
I just want to hear some rain on the roof. I mean, some proper rain!!! I want to see some green in the lawn.
And..... I want my car washed.


3/3 Correct!! ha ha grin

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