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#1437817 - 18/10/2017 10:02 NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017
Kino Online   content
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Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
OK - models are firming on a decent widespread rain event now for most of NSW.

The highest accumulations according to models will be northern and north-eastern NSW with totals up to 60-100mm forecast.

The good thing for me (Illawarra and Metro) is the more easterly feed pumping into the trough/front as it arrives; and the moister SE'erly stream behind it as opposed to the drier SW'erly crap we've had.

The good news is that for Sydney & Illawarra basins some decent totals are also forecast:
GFS - 20-40mm
CMC - 20-30mm
EC - only 10mm frown
ACCESS - 10 - 30mm
WRF - 5-10mm

FINGERS crossed GFS nails it!

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#1437822 - 18/10/2017 10:14 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
DaveM Offline
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Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9844
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Well done Kino smile

Good to see such a well defined band of precip move across the state like it hopefully will.

My son not impressed re his wedding day - but the greater good etc smile Might hire him out as a rain bringer. smile

We seem at last to have broken into a happier weather pattern regarding rain. Finally feeling more confident of semi regular events now.

Bit of a worry that EC is the one with the lowest totals. Ah well - see what happens. smile

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#1437829 - 18/10/2017 10:40 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: DaveM]
Kino Online   content
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Originally Posted By: DaveM
Well done Kino smile

Good to see such a well defined band of precip move across the state like it hopefully will.

My son not impressed re his wedding day - but the greater good etc smile Might hire him out as a rain bringer. smile

We seem at last to have broken into a happier weather pattern regarding rain. Finally feeling more confident of semi regular events now.

Bit of a worry that EC is the one with the lowest totals. Ah well - see what happens. smile


Looks to have mainly cleared most of the State by Sat morning - overcast conditions are perfect for weddings - no shadows smile

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#1437830 - 18/10/2017 10:50 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Kino Online   content
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Agree re: EC; hope it massively upgrades overnight.

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#1437843 - 18/10/2017 11:37 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Online   content
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I see that Bathurst is now going for 10-25mm for Friday in the BOM forecast, or 10-28 including late Thursday. Orange is going for 15-29.

The forecast for Richmond (close to Cattai area) on Saturday is overcast and a bit cool, but no rain.

EDIT: maybe this afternoon's forecast will up the rainfall totals. The models do look more favourable for rain than the forecast is suggesting.

EDIT2: 850 temps look quite cool on Saturday, a Wintry 2-3 degrees over Sydney (Access).


Edited by Steve777 (18/10/2017 11:44)

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#1437845 - 18/10/2017 11:47 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Kino Online   content
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The sharper the upper cold pool the better the rainfall chances you'd think IF the easterly inflow continues. Plenty of chunky Cu in the Illawarra this AM.

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#1437854 - 18/10/2017 12:30 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
DaveM Offline
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Registered: 21/05/2001
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Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
The wedding day is Friday smile gunna be wet it seems, weather gods got him with that one. Que Sera Sera. smile

Yes the nights will quickly cool for Saturday/Sunday out here. I think Saturday might be 3 or 4 in the morning out here.

Humidity already building out here. My skin has gone clammy, shirt getting annoying. smile

I am a ridiculously sensitive humidity/moisture sensing instrument. Humidity tends to make me a little agro - hence I stay away from the coast smile

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#1437856 - 18/10/2017 12:42 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Kino Online   content
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The human hydrometer lol

Look at that moisture infeed, coming all the way from Central Pacific!



Edited by Kino (18/10/2017 12:43)

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#1437858 - 18/10/2017 12:52 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
DaveM Offline
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Registered: 21/05/2001
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Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Indeed Kino, many who know me stir me heaps about my sensitivity to the tiniest change in humidity grin

But I can't help what my body feels smile

That's a great looking vapour image - was just looking at the same thing on my LAYERS page smile

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#1437897 - 18/10/2017 16:38 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Homer Offline
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Loc: Dural
DaveM - you've got to stop wearing those silk shirts to work!

As for Friday, the latest forecast for Richmond http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/richmond.shtml has increased rainfall totals to 15-30 mm's, but says it will fall mainly during the morning. Looks like this will be a fast moving system so hopefully, by the time the ceremony takes place, things will have cleared somewhat.
Saturdays forecast has cooled down further with a top of only 21 for Richmond and 19 for the city. No rain or showers forecast though.

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#1437941 - 18/10/2017 23:05 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Kino Online   content
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Well great news is ACCESS C has had an upgrade today, now going for 20-40mm for Metro & Illawarra on Thursday overnight & into Friday.

GFS, EC & CMC all had downgrades lol.

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#1437998 - 19/10/2017 09:49 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Kino Online   content
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ACCESS is hanging on to 10-30mm falls within the Metro & Illawarra areas. GfS has come back on-board to an extent; EC has also upgraded overnight now liking 15-25mm.

Most agree rain should start overnight and persist well into tomorrow tapering off tomorrow night. Straws crossed!

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#1438002 - 19/10/2017 09:53 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
DaveM Offline
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Registered: 21/05/2001
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Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
grin Homer grin

Yep wedding aside - let's hope everyone gets a good drink out of this. It's greening nicely out here after last weeks showers - this will hopefully add nicely to that smile

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#1438036 - 19/10/2017 12:17 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Kino Online   content
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The change / trough is starting to push through far southern NSW now, with some decent showers attached.

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#1438049 - 19/10/2017 13:55 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Kino Online   content
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Great moisture haze and fat cu already building over the Hills *fingers crossed*

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#1438074 - 19/10/2017 15:25 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Kino Online   content
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Showers starting to appear now to the west; with the main line to the sw really thickening nicely.

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#1438077 - 19/10/2017 15:45 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Kino Online   content
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Severe storms now on it's northern flank. Must be some decent cold air up there.

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#1438080 - 19/10/2017 16:28 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Kino Online   content
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ACCESS C staying strong with 10-30mm now; WRF 20-40mm, GFS 10-40mm spread across the Metro & Illawarra pushing into the Hunter. Still widespread 20-60mm falls across the State with isolated pockets up to 100mm!

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#1438081 - 19/10/2017 16:28 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Homer Offline
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Although short lived, I'm really looking forward to this system.
I just want to hear some rain on the roof. I mean, some proper rain!!! I want to see some green in the lawn.
And..... I want my car washed.

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#1438082 - 19/10/2017 16:32 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Homer]
Kino Online   content
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Originally Posted By: Homer
Although short lived, I'm really looking forward to this system.
I just want to hear some rain on the roof. I mean, some proper rain!!! I want to see some green in the lawn.
And..... I want my car washed.


3/3 Correct!! ha ha grin

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#1438085 - 19/10/2017 16:40 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Kino Online   content
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Homer what's it saying in the forecast for your area? For me 10-20mm (WxZone) & 15-20mm (BoM) and 17.4mm (YR.NO on this am's run). Pretty consistent around that 20mm mark (which would be the heaviest fall since 20 May frown )

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#1438087 - 19/10/2017 16:54 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Online   content
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Now that the rain is about to resume, I might set out the final stats for Sydney's dry spell. Stats are for OH:

Sept 17 - Oct 19 (33 days): zero
Aug 29 - Oct 19 (52 days): 0.4 mm (Aug 28 was the last fall of 1mm or more)
Aug 5 - Oct 19 (76 days): 1.8 mm (Aug 4 saw 13.8mm, the last fall 2mm or more).

From memory, OH's longest dry spell on record was 47 days from July to early Sept 1995. The second longest is 34 on a few occasions.

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#1438091 - 19/10/2017 17:34 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Homer Offline
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Originally Posted By: Kino
Homer what's it saying in the forecast for your area? For me 10-20mm (WxZone) & 15-20mm (BoM) and 17.4mm (YR.NO on this am's run). Pretty consistent around that 20mm mark (which would be the heaviest fall since 20 May frown )


Pretty similar numbers to yours Kino.
I only look at BOM. Richmond is the closest forecast area to me although temp wise, it can sometimes be quite different. Going for 20-25 mm's.

Edit.
They are quite extraordinary dry numbers Steve. Your waterfall pics tell the story.
Thanks for posting.


Edited by Homer (19/10/2017 17:35)

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#1438120 - 19/10/2017 19:53 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Kino Online   content
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Radar starting to look better. Already some rain in the Shoalhaven.

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#1438124 - 19/10/2017 20:07 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Kino Online   content
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Spitting here now grin

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#1438134 - 19/10/2017 20:55 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Homer Offline
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System appears to be a teeny weeny bit slower in progressing than what the BOM was forecasting earlier today. Maybe a good thing for extra development.

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#1438135 - 19/10/2017 20:57 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Homer]
Kino Online   content
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Originally Posted By: Homer
System appears to be a teeny weeny bit slower in progressing than what the BOM was forecasting earlier today. Maybe a good thing for extra development.


Here's hoping. Was a lot stormier than forecast as well. Sadly we'll have to much gunk - best we can hope for is maybe something embedded.

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#1438139 - 19/10/2017 21:35 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
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Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Believe it or not it's raining quite heavily here west of Bowral.

Feels like eons since the last time I heard rain like this!


Edited by Wave Rider (19/10/2017 21:37)
_________________________
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2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
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#1438140 - 19/10/2017 21:37 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Wave Rider]
Kino Online   content
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Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Believe it or not it's raining quite heavily here west of Bowral.


Yay! Send it over the edge please smile

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#1438141 - 19/10/2017 21:38 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
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Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Hoping so Kino!
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1438142 - 19/10/2017 21:53 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Rainbow Spirit Offline
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Registered: 10/11/2010
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Loc: Green Valley, just west of Liv...
Does anyone know what changes were made to the Terry Hills radar recently? ATM it still appears to over rate the rainfall as it did in the past. While Appin seems to underrate rainfall.

Meanwhile Captains Flat seems to be more like Terry Hills.

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#1438144 - 19/10/2017 22:05 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
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Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
No idea RS.

We should get about 10mm tomorrow around Sydney and Wollongong, perhaps 15mm up here. It's coming from the west though so maybe it will end up being less than projected for the coast.

PS: I love my impeccable timing of catching the cold weather up here. 28C today but 17 predicted tomorrow and 18 Saturday. frown But then it warms back up when I go home.



Edited by Wave Rider (19/10/2017 22:07)
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1438148 - 19/10/2017 22:31 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Online   content
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Some pretty useful falls in the South West, Riverina and Central West, including 29mm at Wagga (Duane will be pleased), 11mm at Albury, 17mm at Griffith and 13mm at Temora. The South Coast is also getting rain. Nothing recorded in the Central Tablelands or Illawarra yet, but it's on its way.

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#1438149 - 19/10/2017 22:33 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Floodhunta Offline
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Loc: Bowral asl 690m
Can't wait. Nice to see the upgrade in Bowral to 10-15 after this mornings downgrade. Hoping for an embedded storm or two.

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#1438151 - 19/10/2017 22:56 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Max744 Offline
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Registered: 10/11/2002
Posts: 1557
Loc: Cooks Gap - Kingsgrove NSW
Still waiting for it to get here to Cooks Gap. The satellite is starting to look pretty chunky though out towards Wellington and Dubbo. Hopefully we'll get some useful falls out of it.

Hope you took your jacket with you Reills poke

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#1438157 - 20/10/2017 06:55 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Rainbow Spirit Offline
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Registered: 10/11/2010
Posts: 475
Loc: Green Valley, just west of Liv...
Currently at 5.5mm here at Green Valley, I think we might struggle to 10mm. It's surprising how little rain excites the soul after such a long dry spell.

I remember stopping at a house to get some water on a cycling trip in England some time ago, and I commented to the lady that usually in Australia we just use a garden tap to fill our bottles. 'Why would you have a tap in the garden? It rains, she said.


Edited by Rainbow Spirit (20/10/2017 06:56)

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#1438158 - 20/10/2017 07:22 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
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Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Yep sure did Max, always need to be prepared for cold weather here even in summer.

RS I think you're right, at least for eastern Sydney and the Illawarra, but you may scrape close to 10mm. Just 5mm down in Wollongong, it's amazing how much models underestimate rain from the west. I even compensated for that in my forecast for here but still not as much as you'd think.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1438162 - 20/10/2017 07:48 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Perfect Storm Online   content
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Loc: Carramar (Fairfield), Sydney, ...
Woke up at 430 and could hear the water flowing over the balconies in my complex. Gave me the impressionn it had rained a lot more than it has.

Still best we've had in a while and may just scrap to 10mm as others have said. Beautiful morning to wake up too.



On the plus side both GFS and WATL seem to be indicating some follow up precipitation towards towards the end of the next 7-8 days. We'll wait and see.
_________________________
The pitter patter of rain falling is the sweetest sound you'll ever hear.

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#1438167 - 20/10/2017 08:18 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Online   content
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It's solid grey with light winds and light steady rain here, after another warm night. Most of Sydney has received about 6 to 9 mm, an amount of rain which would normally not attract comment beyond the odd whinge. The rain is accumulating steadily at maybe 2mm per hour.

There's a Southerly change moving up the coast. It passed through Kiama just before 8:00AM. The Terry Hills radar looks pretty full but there seems to be a clearing edge (to the rain) with the change.


Edited by Steve777 (20/10/2017 08:20)
Edit Reason: Tidy up

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#1438170 - 20/10/2017 09:01 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Kino Online   content
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10m at home; only 6mm at Albion Park, 8mm at Bellambi and only 7mm at Kiama (surprised given the more southerly stream of showers).

Appin defin underestimates rain in this stratiform type events - i.e. it's pissin' down here in the City yet only light green on radar. Sadly can see lighter patches to the south; hopefully tho we still get these fat showers drifting in from the s/se.

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#1438173 - 20/10/2017 09:15 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
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Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Any showers with the southerly like that little patch blowing up the northern suburbs of Wollongong currently should be heavier than anything from the west, despite what the radar might say.

Funny weather here in Bowral, we got a wave of fog that smelled like rainforest for 15 mins and now it's gone again.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1438178 - 20/10/2017 09:50 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Online   content
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That patch of rain mentioned by WR seems to be riding the Southerly change. It's now reaching Sydney's Southern outskirts. A 78kph gust was recorded at Wattamolla.

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#1438179 - 20/10/2017 09:52 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Kino Online   content
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Defin the southerly change - temp has dropped to only 14 here and 15 at AP. Very cold airmass. Looks like the main band of rain is now clearing and will leave behind the odd shower. Oh well. Onwards and upwards for the next change.

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#1438184 - 20/10/2017 10:31 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Perfect Storm Online   content
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Registered: 30/10/2005
Posts: 861
Loc: Carramar (Fairfield), Sydney, ...
Looks like some more showers/ rain areas building to the west. Go you beauties!!!
_________________________
The pitter patter of rain falling is the sweetest sound you'll ever hear.

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#1438185 - 20/10/2017 10:43 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Some useful accumulations beginning here too. The rain is still coming from the west but the southerly is adding moisture which has caused some fairly decent drizzle for around an hour now and counting.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1438191 - 20/10/2017 11:36 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Kino Online   content
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Another band moving through - seems the moister airmass is helping fire these showers/rain periods up as they hit the coast, for a change.

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#1438193 - 20/10/2017 11:41 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Online   content
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Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
It!s brighter, cooler and windy here. The rain has stopped, but the Terry Hills radar still looks pretty full, albeit with gaps. It looks like the showers should continue on and of for the afternoon.

Accumulations around Sydney, since the small hours of this morning:

OH ...12.2 mm
Olympic Park... 15.8
Bankstown ... 11.6
Penrith ... 13.8

There'll be some modest increases by sunset.

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#1438196 - 20/10/2017 12:00 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Kino Online   content
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Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Bellambi on 7mm already, picked pretty well by ACCESS C. AP & Kiama barely troubling the gauge with 1mm and under.

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#1438199 - 20/10/2017 12:34 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Stormy3 Offline
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Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1447
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
13 MMS Here in Ellalong SW of Cessnock since the rain started after mid-night,still raining lightly with heavier bursts at times,looks like still some more to come before clearing later,no winds as yet.
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#1438212 - 20/10/2017 14:49 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
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Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2704
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Beautiful moderate rain falling here now, shame its bitterly freezing. Cold spring this one.

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#1438214 - 20/10/2017 15:08 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Homer Offline
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Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5289
Loc: Dural
Some pretty heavy rain here for the past 20 mins CS.
Just 14.7 degs and windy too. Feeling very cold indeed.

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#1438216 - 20/10/2017 15:50 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Online   content
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Registered: 20/10/2011
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Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
After a few hours of light drizzle and spitting rain, the rain picked up again from about 2:00PM, becoming moderately heavy. OH is now up to 19mm for the event, Olympic park 25mm (an inch in the old money), Chatswood 18mm.

Just drove through Lane Cove National Park, Riverside Falls is flowing nicely again.

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#1438218 - 20/10/2017 16:01 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Steve777]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1272
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Steve777
After a few hours of light drizzle and spitting rain, the rain picked up again from about 2:00PM, becoming moderately heavy. OH is now up to 19mm for the event, Olympic park 25mm (an inch in the old money), Chatswood 18mm.

Just drove through Lane Cove National Park, Riverside Falls is flowing nicely again.


Nice; those falls are quite sensitive to rainfall aren't they! 20-30mm across the Basin is a decent fall. Best here (on the auto gauges) is 8 - 23mm (quite a variation in such a small area).

Thought Kiama would do better actually, but seems Saddleback really diverges any western rainfall events.


Edited by Kino (20/10/2017 16:01)

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#1438220 - 20/10/2017 16:13 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Rainbow Spirit Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/11/2010
Posts: 475
Loc: Green Valley, just west of Liv...
This is really looking good now, 21mm and rising, go you good thing.

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#1438226 - 20/10/2017 17:08 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Max744 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/11/2002
Posts: 1557
Loc: Cooks Gap - Kingsgrove NSW
Just started to rain heavily again here at Cooks Gap along with a wind shift to a quite stiff Sou Westerly. 27mm for the event so far smile

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#1438235 - 20/10/2017 18:18 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
dknever Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 21/11/2016
Posts: 17
Loc: Liverpool, NSW
looks like it's going to rain all night in liverpool.

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#1438237 - 20/10/2017 18:19 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Forecast of 17C here today, got to 16 at around 8am, but with 9am reset the official max would be about 12.7 recorded at 9am.

Most of the day was 10 or 11C so it really felt freeeeezing cold. We don't usually get these temps in winter but yet up here it's completely different.

Also the min/max temp was 12.7/12.7


Edited by Wave Rider (20/10/2017 18:29)
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1438242 - 20/10/2017 18:58 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3597
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Originally Posted By: dknever
looks like it's going to rain all night in liverpool.

Actually, from the radar, it looks as though the rain band will clear Sydney soon. On the other hand, that's how it look this morning but the rain redeveloped after the Southerly passed through. I think it should ease off soon, however.

Originally Posted By: Kino
...those falls are quite sensitive to rainfall aren't they! 20-30mm across the Basin is a decent fall.

Those falls are on a small unnamed (as far as I know) watercourse that probably starts near Delhi Road and the Macquarie Park cemetery and flows maybe 1.5 km or so into the Lane Cove River. It fills up very quickly when it rains and the falls get going. They dry up during dry spells but there's usually at least a trickle.

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#1438247 - 20/10/2017 20:12 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5289
Loc: Dural
The rain has mostly cleared now and I don't expect much more, although it is still heavily overcast.
BOM got this system pretty well spot on.
Credit where it is due.

In the end.....geez the rain was lovely today. Long and soaking. The perfect first drought breaking event, soaking the soils that would have sucked it up like a ........ well, I won't go there.
I look forward to the local lawns turning a mad green in the next few weeks. It was THAT type of system.

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#1438250 - 20/10/2017 20:46 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Indeed Homer, some nice rain even it was a bloody cold day.

But saying that though, it won't take much hot and dry weather to be back to where we were, if it does occur.

PS- We haven't seen Donzah in ages!! Not surprised really but I do miss his contributions here.


Edited by Wave Rider (20/10/2017 20:50)
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1438252 - 20/10/2017 20:53 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Homer]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1272
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Homer
The rain has mostly cleared now and I don't expect much more, although it is still heavily overcast.
BOM got this system pretty well spot on.
Credit where it is due.

In the end.....geez the rain was lovely today. Long and soaking. The perfect first drought breaking event, soaking the soils that would have sucked it up like a ........ well, I won't go there.
I look forward to the local lawns turning a mad green in the next few weeks. It was THAT type of system.


If models are right, we could see some substantial rain next week. Straws crossed.

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#1438253 - 20/10/2017 20:56 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Max744 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/11/2002
Posts: 1557
Loc: Cooks Gap - Kingsgrove NSW
Still raining here at the farm. Just pushed through 30mm smile

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#1438254 - 20/10/2017 20:58 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Excellent stuff Max!
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1438272 - 21/10/2017 07:34 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Rainbow Spirit Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/11/2010
Posts: 475
Loc: Green Valley, just west of Liv...
I ended up with 23mm. Now for some follow up rain next week.

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#1438276 - 21/10/2017 08:30 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
DerekHV Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 841
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
24.2mm so far from this mini-event, and with light drizzle around may get just over an inch in the old money if it keeps up.
Local farmers should be happy as well.

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#1438277 - 21/10/2017 08:40 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3597
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
It's bright and sunny in Sydney. It hasn't rained here since early evening and the cloud cleared from around dawn. It looks like most of Sydney finished with about 20-30mm, a bit more in a few places, a bit less in the outer SW. OH finished with 24mm, Chatswood 25, Warhongah 36 and Bankstown 21.


Edited by Steve777 (21/10/2017 08:41)
Edit Reason: Clarify

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#1438469 - 22/10/2017 19:37 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Rainbow Spirit Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/11/2010
Posts: 475
Loc: Green Valley, just west of Liv...
If you were to believe the Terry Hills radar today, there could have been some hail today around the Bankstown area at about 3:30pm, although I really doubt that. We had a light shower at about 3pm today, and it is currently raining lightly here atm.

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#1438477 - 22/10/2017 20:04 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Rainbow Spirit]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5289
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Rainbow Spirit
If you were to believe the Terry Hills radar today, there could have been some hail today around the Bankstown area at about 3:30pm, although I really doubt that. We had a light shower at about 3pm today, and it is currently raining lightly here atm.


There was a black cell on the BOM radar that pushed up from the south west earlier and there were reports of small hail. The black portion of the cell lasted for 6 or 7 frames I believe......maybe a few more, so hail was certainly possible.

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#1438537 - 23/10/2017 09:33 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9844
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Well Bathurst ended up with just under 40mm - that's just brilliant.

The wedding was soaked as expected but we all had a great time anyhow.

The green will explode around here and many places. smile

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#1438548 - 23/10/2017 10:25 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3597
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
It's already greening up here. Lawns which were brown just a few days ago and turning green.

Counting yesterday as part of this 'event' (most reports are under 'Day to Day Weather'), OH finished with 27.8mm and Chatswood near me 32mm. Most of Sydney would have received between 20 and 35mm.

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#1438574 - 23/10/2017 12:37 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9844
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Good drop in plenty of places it seems smile

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#1438578 - 23/10/2017 13:02 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Rob G Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/07/2003
Posts: 673
Loc: Porters Retreat NSW
Quite cold here yesterday with a high of 15C (actually that's about normal, unlike the maxima for most of this month which have been well above). There was even a very light patchy frost early yesterday morning. Cloud built up during the day. It looked like rain would fall but not a raindrop was seen. Spirits sank as the cloud disappeared from mid-afternoon. Finally a line storms moved in last night dropping 12mm and put the smile back on our faces. So far 58mm this month.

It was already pretty green here before October's rain. Now its doubly green. Still, the rain's moisture will be needed when you look at the heat approaching this weekend. Will be in the mid 20's here on Sunday; high 30's in Sydney's west. Despite the rain, it is likely October will be yet another drier than normal month. It would require remarkably wet conditions in Nov and Dec to rescue us from a very dry year (only 545mm so far). I wonder how often non-El Nino years see such low rainfall?

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#1438622 - 23/10/2017 17:27 Re: NSW Rain Event - Breaking the Record Dry - 19 to 21 October 2017 [Re: Kino]
Rainbow Spirit Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/11/2010
Posts: 475
Loc: Green Valley, just west of Liv...
So in total we got 27mm here, 23mm Friday and 4mm yesterday (Sunday). Some more in the next few weeks would be great, as we are still way behind what we should have had over the last four months.

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