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#1437646 - 17/10/2017 10:02 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9941
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Access a bit bullish on a cold front down there on Friday - GFS & EC not as keen.

Could be breezy though.

How is the new tank going P?

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#1437795 - 18/10/2017 08:32 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 1931
Loc: Westbury
Looks like Campania broke 30 yesterday (30.1), a number of other sites went beyond 28. Generally the warmest weather since March for most places. Recorded 26.4 at home which was the warmest since March 19th (27.5).

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#1437805 - 18/10/2017 09:10 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9941
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Much of Tassie will be warmer than here today. Those NW winds down there a day or so before hitting here.

Hobart today 30 (Melbourne too) up here 25

Hobart back to about 23 tomorrow - us about 27 as the NW'ers move eastwards.

Enjoy the warmth. smile

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#1437811 - 18/10/2017 09:35 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
payshense Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/03/2013
Posts: 919
Loc: West Coast, TAS, 310m ASL / Bu...
Already 22 at 0900 today. Hit 28 here mid afternoon yesterday. 21 on Monday.

DM, the 50mm we have had in the last week has the new tank off to a great start smile

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#1437814 - 18/10/2017 09:45 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 1931
Loc: Westbury
If he wasn't out fighting fires all day, SF would be here to gloat re: the 30 degree forecasts. Middle and upper Derwent valleys will be well into the 30's (32-34).


I have a model that takes the 9am conditions, the forecast 11am 850TMP and it attempts to predict the max temp for Hobart. Based on the conditions this morning it says a top of 28.5 - wind speeds weren't really high enough for the current temps. But there is a considerable error range in the model (plus or minus 2 degrees). Equates to ~ a 24% chance of a max higher than 30 or 76% chance of it being lower than 30.The forecast 850T's aren't quite as high as they were earlier in the week. Suspect my model is going to fall short today.

Have a 2nd model that looks at it again at 11am. Will keep you posted.


Edited by Snowies (18/10/2017 09:50)

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#1437819 - 18/10/2017 10:08 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9941
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
I would think so P - quite a few litres in that!!

Hey Dan - which area are the fires? are they bad ones - have heard nothing up here about them.

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#1437823 - 18/10/2017 10:16 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 1931
Loc: Westbury
Not too bad, its under control burning between Kingston, Mount Nelson, Ridgeway and Fern Tree - taken out 44ha at last update.

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#1437833 - 18/10/2017 11:07 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 1931
Loc: Westbury
11am Model now predicting a top of exactly 30. 25.5 at 11am. 11% chance of the max exceeding 32.

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#1437852 - 18/10/2017 12:26 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9941
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Ooh - fire up around my old stomping grounds!!

Glad not too bad.

Thanks Dan.

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#1437864 - 18/10/2017 13:55 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 1931
Loc: Westbury
Cruised past 30 to a warm 31.9.

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#1437868 - 18/10/2017 14:16 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: Snowies]
yep Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2013
Posts: 376
Loc: Hobart
Originally Posted By: Snowies
Cruised past 30 to a warm 31.9.

Fifth hottest October day, but maybe that could be it?

34.6.....1987
33.3.....1914
33.1.....2006
32.7.....1922
31.9.....2017

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#1437876 - 18/10/2017 15:04 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 1931
Loc: Westbury
Looks to be done, sea breeze has arrived just before 3pm.

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#1437878 - 18/10/2017 15:18 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
BrightonBreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/07/2016
Posts: 179
Loc: Brighton, Tas 55m ASL
Warm at Brighton, top of 33C still sitting about 32.6C with a northerly, hopefully the sea breeze doesn't push the northerly back! grin

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#1437886 - 18/10/2017 15:31 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
BrightonBreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/07/2016
Posts: 179
Loc: Brighton, Tas 55m ASL
Also forgot to mention the humidity dropped down to 14% earlier aswell, not great for any fires breaking out! Very desperate for rain! Seems to be the case in a lot of places.

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#1437890 - 18/10/2017 16:00 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9941
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
That is a hot day for there any time let alone October.

33 at Brighton - that's hot.

We had a 31.2 in September but we've not yet made 33.

Too good for me BB smile

Indeed Hobart has me covered too for hottest temp since winter.

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#1437892 - 18/10/2017 16:12 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 1931
Loc: Westbury
I suspect you may have lost the battle but will easily win the war for hottest days of summer.

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#1437895 - 18/10/2017 16:32 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
payshense Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/03/2013
Posts: 919
Loc: West Coast, TAS, 310m ASL / Bu...
Have just hit 30 here. Up from 29.5 an hour ago.

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#1437896 - 18/10/2017 16:34 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
yep Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2013
Posts: 376
Loc: Hobart
Just needs to stay above 18.3c in Hobart before 9am tomorrow for second warmest October night. The warmest is 20.2c but at 9am today it was 19.2c, so we won't get the big one unfotunately

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#1437906 - 18/10/2017 17:45 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: yep]
payshense Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/03/2013
Posts: 919
Loc: West Coast, TAS, 310m ASL / Bu...
Topped out at 30.5 an hour ago. Falling slowly, on 28 now.

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#1437938 - 18/10/2017 22:17 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Stale fish Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2001
Posts: 2093
Loc: Leslie vale 310m asl
Evening all,
As Snowies said been fighting for the past 2 days on the Proctors rd fire between Summerleas rd and the Southern Outlet. The fire is now contained but has burnt 227ha.
Did heaps of back burning yesterday for today and then today we removed dangerous trees and mopped up. Had our backsides hanging out for a while when some un burnt ground took hold and the stringy barks sent embers over the containment lines. We held on for a good win with a BBQ at the end of the day.
Dave
The fire has burnt up to the end of the tag st fire trail and then to Bramble rd through to 1km from Firthside. Nearly took a photo of the old house for you but didn't want you to shead any more tears.

Max here was 30.2 degrees and still 23.4 degrees at 10pm

Cheers Dave


Edited by Stale fish (18/10/2017 22:20)

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