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#1438215 - 20/10/2017 15:37 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
signalman Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/03/2010
Posts: 97
Loc: Warwick (Qld)
The trough line currently extends from Charleville to Moree. Not a lot of weather in it by the look of the Maranoa Radar. What is the chance of this system clearing the Eastern Downs overnight and the South-East corner tomorrow morning. Any thoughts appreciated. Thanks

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#1438228 - 20/10/2017 17:38 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
signalman Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/03/2010
Posts: 97
Loc: Warwick (Qld)
No use replying to myself whilst a number of commentators are communicating on a site that is now dated. Oh well - such is life. Time to check-in on BOM forecasts.

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#1438231 - 20/10/2017 17:53 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: signalman]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2842
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: signalman
No use replying to myself whilst a number of commentators are communicating on a site that is now dated. Oh well - such is life. Time to check-in on BOM forecasts.


Sorry, I'd comment but nit from your area smile but they're prob all still too busy arguing in the recent rain event thread lol

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#1438232 - 20/10/2017 17:59 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1232
Loc: Toowoomba
Hey signalman, have a chat with your fellow Warwick poster, and yes, always check the Bom forecasts.

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#1438233 - 20/10/2017 18:11 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
signalman Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/03/2010
Posts: 97
Loc: Warwick (Qld)
Cheers Kino and Pete. BOM guidance is for showers/patchy rain overnight and continuing tomorrow morning. Maybe a storm or two. Clearance pm. My seeking the thoughts of others results from having to decide on a visit to Toowoomba then Brisbane tomorrow. Yes - sadly others pre-occupied on another thread that finished 3 days ago (the event). Still open for the views of others. Thanks.

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#1438234 - 20/10/2017 18:12 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: signalman]
Colin Maitland Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2543
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
Originally Posted By: signalman
The trough line currently extends from Charleville to Moree. Not a lot of weather in it by the look of the Maranoa Radar. What is the chance of this system clearing the Eastern Downs overnight and the South-East corner tomorrow morning. Any thoughts appreciated. Thanks


Just Looking at EC and GFS runs and rain should start to hit Warwick approx. @1:00am Saturday and slowly clears around 18:00pm Sat evening. Not big totals as you say. Looks like Saturday is a drizzly day for the SEQ, NE/NSW and Tablelands.
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VK4FCDM (Amateur radio call sign)

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#1438236 - 20/10/2017 18:19 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
signalman Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/03/2010
Posts: 97
Loc: Warwick (Qld)
Thanks Col - much appreciated.

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#1438238 - 20/10/2017 18:23 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
CirrusFibratus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/09/2015
Posts: 419
Loc: Strathpine, QLD
Well we nabbed 81.3mm from that last event, haven't seen the grass look this good for a long time.
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#1438239 - 20/10/2017 18:26 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: sixties]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2272
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: sixties
Ken's temp chart reminded me a "typical" La-nina SST chart. Come to think of it the build up to this years wet season has a very 2010ish feel to it


Not sure that this is the case at all. In 2010 we had day after day of overcast, rainy weather pretty much from September until the January floods. SEQ hit 30 degrees for the first time in spring/summer in the second week of December. The ground was so saturated that if you stepped on it you would literally squish water out the sides of your feet and the moisture levels were so high that there was mold everywhere.

All we've had is two rain events with a big moisture infeed and lower temperatures over the past two weeks. This has felt very La-Nina and 2010/2011, but that's where it ends I think. Looking ahead it appears that we will return to hotter temperatures with frontal activity and spring storms. Can't say what will happen later in the year or in January but definitely not like 2010/2011 over a long period of time.

Next week looks good for storms though. I even heard the BOM correspondent on ABC suggesting that late next week would see good trough activity with possible big storms on Friday, with the disclaimer that it was still a long way out.

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#1438248 - 20/10/2017 20:18 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1678
Loc: Australia
Normally when these rain bands clear from the west just before sunset, it can make for stunning skies with a sea of red. However I just seen that low cloud is forecast tomorrow as well, so that puts that idea to rest, unless your out Warwick way

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#1438249 - 20/10/2017 20:24 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3587
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Oh goody, rain again tomorrow.
This afternoon was lovely sunny & warm.
Looking forward to a few bangs, flashes & rumbles late next week.

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#1438259 - 20/10/2017 21:19 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5576
I still can't see huge falls happening tomorrow but some areas might still see useful amounts nonetheless and it looks reasonably widespread, probably lasting from early morning til afternoon (evening at a stretch).

Both the surface front and the upper trough axis lagging behind it look well-defined and should help with some background forcing (helped by a bit of possible upslide/backing winds with height in the lower levels later on)..... but it's a mainly cool southerly flow behind the front and coupled with the fact that there'll be little daytime heating for much of the day (especially due to the morning onset of the precip/cloud) and instability, I think this will probably help prevent rainfall from being TOO noteworthy.

Percentages of all the main models dropping more than the following amounts of rainfall between 10pm tonight and 10pm Sat night:



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#1438262 - 20/10/2017 21:31 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3587
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Thanks for your wisdom on here Ken, very much appreciated & as always, any rain is good rain around here! Havagoodweekend.

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#1438264 - 20/10/2017 21:59 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1082
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Yes signalman, I agree with everyone who responded to your post. It looked like a couple of days ago we would see perhaps 50mm from this rain band, but now, over the past 24 hours, it has been downgraded a bit. I really hope we see 25mm out of this, but my guess is 10-15mm. Our last rain event with at least 25mm or more was way way back on March 31, so, I guess you can say our last significant rain event was almost 7 months ago! This, with most of those months barely receiving any rain at all. We really need this rain band drop its goods over us. I feel however that the same areas that received good rains and flooding from the last event will again receive most of the rain this go round. After this rain band, it is likely back to more of a scattered nature to storms late next week and beyond, and of course, more heat which will cause further evaporation to the already dry land here.
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Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1438267 - 20/10/2017 22:46 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10475
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Nice day up in Coffs today. A sunny, warm morning becoming pleasantly mild in the afternoon thanks to the seabreeze and increasing cloudcover.

View of the hills behind northern Coffs (taken at Park Beach Plaza) -


Spitting rain began here in the late afternoon, gradually becoming light to occasionally steady rain this evening. 9.2mm since 9am.
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
December 2018 Rainfall: 11.4mm (December Avg. 118.3mm) // December 2018 Raindays: 5 (December Avg. 12.8 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1324.6mm (Yearly Avg. 1490.8mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 128 (Yearly Avg. 137.6 raindays)

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#1438268 - 20/10/2017 23:27 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Colin Maitland Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2543
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
Nice photo Seabreeze. Looking forward to the light rain tomorrow before the heat and humidity builds up again later in the week.
_________________________
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VK4FCDM (Amateur radio call sign)

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#1438271 - 21/10/2017 07:21 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Adam Ant Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/10/2003
Posts: 1050
Loc: West Toowoomba
This rainband seems to be clearing much earlier then forecasted. Does the trough stall?

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#1438275 - 21/10/2017 08:19 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
wet sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/10/2015
Posts: 650
Loc: NENSW-Wet Subtropics
13.6mm last night here, a bit more than expected.

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#1438278 - 21/10/2017 08:57 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3587
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Light rain last couple of hrs, still quite dark outside, so the cloud must be quite thick. Not much in it though & looks like clearing soon.
3.5mm so far.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (21/10/2017 08:59)

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#1438280 - 21/10/2017 09:06 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1082
Loc: Warwick, QLD
6.5mm with light rain and drizzle overnight and this morning.
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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