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#1438412 - 22/10/2017 12:04 Vic - arrival of a "Perth-derived" cut-off low 23-26/10/17
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6880
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
If this does arrive as GFS is currently progging, would be great news for a dry Gippsland: smile


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#1438458 - 22/10/2017 18:27 Re: Vic - arrival of a "Perth-derived" cut-off low 23-26/10/17 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6880
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Latest GFS (AccR is wetter):


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#1438460 - 22/10/2017 18:29 Re: Vic - arrival of a "Perth-derived" cut-off low 23-26/10/17 [Re: Petros]
Anthony Violi Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2001
Posts: 2326
Loc: Soon to be Mt Barker - SA
European is quite wet and focussed in Gippsland Petros, think we will see the maximum upside through there.
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#1438553 - 23/10/2017 11:02 Re: Vic - arrival of a "Perth-derived" cut-off low 23-26/10/17 [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 746
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
One could be optimistic that the pattern of the past several months is breaking.

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#1438626 - 23/10/2017 18:11 Re: Vic - arrival of a "Perth-derived" cut-off low 23-26/10/17 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6880
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
GFS latest:


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#1438684 - 24/10/2017 07:58 Re: Vic - arrival of a "Perth-derived" cut-off low 23-26/10/17 [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1936
Loc: Sale, NthGippsland, S/E VIC
WZ's ACCESS maps has the ECL formed up nicely on Tuesday 31/10, good call asf, might be to far E to affect mainland Aus ?

Models still showing good, well bldy excellent, rain for our bit of turf, having been so dry for so long at < 0.5 of normal living in hope of the event reaching fruition in the next five days prior to the ECL form up.
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#1438771 - 24/10/2017 18:18 Re: Vic - arrival of a "Perth-derived" cut-off low 23-26/10/17 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6880
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Got to 24C here then this arvo a "near storm" brewed and arrived from the NW to give us a handy 1.75mm to herald the start of this thread for Maffra smile

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#1438774 - 24/10/2017 18:32 Re: Vic - arrival of a "Perth-derived" cut-off low 23-26/10/17 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6880
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
GFS has remained firm and consistent with this one (albiet with my focus on rainfall in Gippsland):




Nice to see significant rain to fall over >75% of Vic if it comes off as per above! smile smile

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#1438775 - 24/10/2017 18:35 Re: Vic - arrival of a "Perth-derived" cut-off low 23-26/10/17 [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6880
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: samboz
WZ's ACCESS maps has the ECL formed up nicely on Tuesday 31/10, good call asf, might be to far E to affect mainland Aus ?

Models still showing good, well bldy excellent, rain for our bit of turf, having been so dry for so long at < 0.5 of normal living in hope of the event reaching fruition in the next five days prior to the ECL form up.


Hope your correct ASF/Samboz - time to start a thread for it??

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#1438776 - 24/10/2017 18:35 Re: Vic - arrival of a "Perth-derived" cut-off low 23-26/10/17 [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1936
Loc: Sale, NthGippsland, S/E VIC
The forecasts have wobbled around a little and all the stars are aligned with the models at the mo' -

eg. GFS - http://stormcast.com.au/raincast.html?ops=gfs:2017102400:0:192:vic:nul#rc

ACCESS - http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View


BEST FORECAST I CAN REMEMBER THIS YEAR - YES!! - YELLING grin laugh


Edited by samboz (24/10/2017 18:37)
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#1438777 - 24/10/2017 18:40 Re: Vic - arrival of a "Perth-derived" cut-off low 23-26/10/17 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2473
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Looks like very fast moving upper low as moving fast from Adelaide and hope across Victoria slower.

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#1438800 - 24/10/2017 20:49 Re: Vic - arrival of a "Perth-derived" cut-off low 23-26/10/17 [Re: Petros]
Twister1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 552
Loc: Chadstone Vic
Widespread light rain across much of S and Mount Vic will continue for a number of hours tonight.

Could be a few nice storms along the Murray river tomorrow watch out for those.
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#1438810 - 24/10/2017 23:13 Re: Vic - arrival of a "Perth-derived" cut-off low 23-26/10/17 [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6006
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Originally Posted By: Petros
Originally Posted By: samboz
WZ's ACCESS maps has the ECL formed up nicely on Tuesday 31/10, good call asf, might be to far E to affect mainland Aus ?

Models still showing good, well bldy excellent, rain for our bit of turf, having been so dry for so long at < 0.5 of normal living in hope of the event reaching fruition in the next five days prior to the ECL form up.


Hope your correct ASF/Samboz - time to start a thread for it??


Yeah a thread for the next event is needed. Models are a bit iffy on the ECLscenario, but looks to be series of troughs and a warm/hot, unstable, stormy northerly airflow ahead of what's shaping up to be a potentially major winter storm event, in time for the end of October and start of November - snow is forecast for the alpine region! I'll get the next thread up and running. smile

Back to today...

Overnight low of 9.6C, reached a warm, humid top of 26.7C here in Belgrave today. At the last check it was around 13C.

Mostly sunny this until lunchtime, but cloud increased as the afternoon progressed; we had a few light showers pass through around 4pm. The Sun's bite was offset by cooling breezes, and it became noticeably chilly as dinnertime approached! Typical Melbourne weather lol crazy

The main rainband moved in after 7pm, and it's been raining steadily for the past few hours (2.1mm when I last checked), and judging by the radar it should persist well into the night. smile

It looked unstable at times earlier today but no thunderstorms have occurred.

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#1438827 - 25/10/2017 08:46 Re: Vic - arrival of a "Perth-derived" cut-off low 23-26/10/17 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Dawoodman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 1229
Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
Originally Posted By: aussiestormfreak

It looked unstable at times earlier today but no thunderstorms have occurred.


They finally got some flashes and a handful of rumbles out near dalesford. Yesterday really looked the part for storms but lacked cap and (what looked to me) a strong lifting force....once the cloud forms, the ground can't get hot enough
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#1438830 - 25/10/2017 09:06 Re: Vic - arrival of a "Perth-derived" cut-off low 23-26/10/17 [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1936
Loc: Sale, NthGippsland, S/E VIC
12.5mm to 0900, excellent ! grin

Some good showers coming thru', two mm since 0715 this AM.

Continuing light rain at present.

No wind and 13.8C, 100% cloud.
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#1438841 - 25/10/2017 10:03 Re: Vic - arrival of a "Perth-derived" cut-off low 23-26/10/17 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6880
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Drizzling at present, dead calm, (hmm.. to play golf?), another 17mm in my gauge at present, adds to the 1.75mm we got yest. arvo.

Local ABC radio reporting that a record number of rainfall readings were phone in this morning, reflects how much rain is appreciated out here in Nth, Central and East Gippsland!

[edit] - is just me, or is the low centre lagging a bit on its progress through SA versus that modelled? - hoping so!


Edited by Petros (25/10/2017 10:04)

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#1438857 - 25/10/2017 11:36 Re: Vic - arrival of a "Perth-derived" cut-off low 23-26/10/17 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2473
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Clam only 2mm overnight and now 20c at 11.30am
Clear skies in NW and hope warm surface will boost storms before S/SE wind flow move upward.


Edited by chasers addict (25/10/2017 11:36)

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#1438863 - 25/10/2017 12:13 Re: Vic - arrival of a "Perth-derived" cut-off low 23-26/10/17 [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6006
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Collected 13.6mm in total last night, wonderful! smile

The bulk of the rain lasted until about 5am, with a few showers following around 2 hours later.

Not sure what my overnight low is (12.5C when I went to bed around midnight), currently around 16C. Mostly cloudy but with a few sunny breaks. smile

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#1438888 - 25/10/2017 14:51 Re: Vic - arrival of a "Perth-derived" cut-off low 23-26/10/17 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2473
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Middle levels fading to south now sunny blue skies, clouds building far West hope is thundery developing and few cells along the divide ranges.

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#1438901 - 25/10/2017 16:02 Re: Vic - arrival of a "Perth-derived" cut-off low 23-26/10/17 [Re: Petros]
Weather_Viewer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/09/2012
Posts: 287
Loc: Tarneit, VIC
I recorded around 18mm all up here in Tarneit, guess I was in the sweet spot in the west last night. grin
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