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#1438820 - 25/10/2017 07:07 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Thunderstorms, some possibly severe - Thu 26th Oct 2017 [Re: ColdFront]
Colin Maitland Offline
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Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2383
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Bundaberg Colin wink
.

Sorry, I have done that a couple of times lately. I was using my iPad and it auto corrected because I have made the mistake and added the ‘er’ instead of A, plus I quickly glanced over and didn’t pick it up as I was rushing. DOH Sorry to all from Bundy.

I should know how to spell it because I used to drink it all the time . Now I am dry, that is probably the problem 😳😃😜


Edited by Colin Maitland (25/10/2017 07:09)
Edit Reason: Speillling thingymebob
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#1438822 - 25/10/2017 07:17 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Thunderstorms, some possibly severe - Thu 26th Oct 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Colin Maitland Offline
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Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2383
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-10-24/is-bundaberg-region-queenslands-tornado-alley/9076696

Lexly Black still remembers the night in 1992 when her house near Bundaberg in southern Queensland was ripped apart by one of Australia's strongest tornadoes.

The F4 tornado that swept through Bucca destroyed nine homes in 10 minutes.

"The cat was sleeping on the washing machine. We didn't see her again," Ms Black said.

"The dog was obviously sucked up and blown away… he came back the next morning with a broken jaw."
Lexly Black and kids in the wreckage of her house in 1992
Photo: Lexly Black knew she was lucky to make it out of the house alive. (Supplied: Lexly Black)

This was one of two tornadoes spawned by severe storms over south-east Queensland that day.

Five catamarans were capsized at Maroochydore, beach swimmers were rescued, cattle were lost and golf-ball-size hail damaged homes and stopped the cricket at the Gabba.

The Bundaberg region features regularly in tornado stories.

In 2013 the nearby coastal township of Bargara was ripped apart by one of these vicious swirling systems.

Earlier this month, Bundaberg residents lost roofs when another twister hit the city.

The frequency of twisters hitting the mid-western United States has earnt that region the moniker "tornado alley".
Is the Wide Bay Queensland's tornado alley?

Certainly some of the storms hitting the region have been swift and ferocious in the impact.

Mrs Black said minutes before the 1992 tornado, there was no hint of the danger ahead.

"When it struck, it just seemed like it was going to be a normal storm," she said.

"We shut up the house, put the dog in the garage, and next thing there was no house — it just happened so quickly there was no time to be frightened."
The Fraser coast at Bargara.
Photo: Bargara can be hit by both heavy storms and tropical systems cyclones. (ABC News: Jenny Woodward)

She said she and her husband were lucky to escape with their lives.

"I was walking down the hallway, bricks started to fall and I put my head in the hall cupboard," Ms Black said.

"My husband threw himself into the lounge chair and just sort of curled up.

"A piece of roof truss went into the arm of the chair and missed him by a couple of centimetres. It was like a freight train coming through."
'We're getting a lot more reports'

Bureau of Meteorology severe weather forecaster Tony Wedd said Australia experienced a lot more tornadoes than many people realised.

"A lot of tornadoes in Australia would go unreported simply due to our very sparse population," he said.

"But I think the public awareness of tornadoes is gradually increasing, and with social media we're seeing a lot more reports and even pictures of tornadoes coming in."
People combing through broken brickwork in the shattered remains of a house
Photo: Pieces of Lexly Black's house were seen flying about 100 metres into the air. (Supplied: Lexly Black)

In Queensland, tornados form in outbreaks of widespread severe storms, as well as in tropical systems such as cyclones.

Bundaberg is in the firing line for both of those types of weather.

"Up around the Bundaberg area we have seen a fairly significant number of tornado reports over the last few decades," Mr Wedd said.
Many US tornadoes much larger

But Bundaberg is not the only place in southern Queensland to experience tornadoes.

The south-east coast forecast region has actually recorded more tornadoes than the Wide Bay, which is equal second with the Darling Downs.
The Fujita tornado scale
Scale/wind estimate (kph) Typical damage
F0 < 117 Light damage:
chimneys, broken branches
F1 118-180 Moderate damage:
roof damage, cars and caravans blown over
F2 181-252 Considerable damage:
roofs torn off, trees uprooted, mobile homes demolished
F3 253-331 Severe damage:
roofs and some walls torn down, trains overturned, forests uprooted
F4 332-418 Devastating damage:
Houses leveled, structures with weak foundations blown away, missiles generated
F5 419-511 Incredible damage:
strong houses leveled and swept away, car-sized missiles, incredible phenomena


Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

In comparing Queensland tornadoes to the US twisters, Mr Wedd said it was also a matter of size.

"Tornadoes in the US tend to be stronger than the ones we get here simply because their atmospheric characteristics are much more favourable over there," he said.

"They get warm moist air from the Gulf of Mexico that penetrates inland and that meets very cold dry air that has had to pass over the Rockies."

Tornado intensity is measured on the Fujita scale from F0 to F5, based on the damage they inflict.

The Bucca tornado was rated a F4 and possibly a F5.

Photos of the twister were taken by neighbours up the road from Mrs Black.

They told her they saw parts of her house 100 metres in the air and were amazed to find the couple alive.

Mrs Black said she and her husband had no hesitation in rebuilding close by.

Despite their ordeal, she said they did not fear storms.

But she said she was well aware that day in 1992 could easily have ended in tragedy.

Topics: phenomena, weather, bundaberg-4670, qld, australia, bargara-4670

First posted Tue at 5:51am
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#1438824 - 25/10/2017 08:31 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Thunderstorms, some possibly severe - Thu 26th Oct 2017 [Re: Colin Maitland]
Nature's Fury Offline
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Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1878
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Some interesting things on this morning's model runs:

There's a trend on the last several GFS runs toward pushing the seabreeze further inland (west of Brisbane) which would really help with low-level moisture, although it's still more northerly. Also, noticeable backing winds with height and helicity values are pretty decent over SEQ especially into the evening. Perhaps LP supercells are a possibility? Not liking how GFS and EC are giving us a bit of cloud (GFS) and possibly an early start (EC), but still reaching low 30s and some early afternoon clearance anyway so probably won't make much difference.

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#1438843 - 25/10/2017 10:13 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Thunderstorms, some possibly severe - Thu 26th Oct 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Steve O Offline
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Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 2931
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
I'm not really seeing the winds backing with height? N'lys on the surface to a W'ly at 500hpa. I thought backing with height would be NE'ly at the surface to a SW'ly at 500hpa?

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#1438849 - 25/10/2017 10:22 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Thunderstorms, some possibly severe - Thu 26th Oct 2017 [Re: Colin Maitland]
one drop Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 15/04/2014
Posts: 22
Loc: maryborough
Originally Posted By: Colin Maitland
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-10-24/is-bundaberg-region-queenslands-tornado-alley/9076696

Lexly Black still remembers the night in 1992 when her house near Bundaberg in southern Queensland was ripped apart by one of Australia's strongest tornadoes.

The F4 tornado that swept through Bucca destroyed nine homes in 10 minutes.

...


it's not mentioned in that article, but that same afternoon an f3 touched down at oakhurst, near maryborough.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Queensland_storms#Oakhurst_tornado

there's a bit of old discussion here ...

http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/107821/1

http://hardenup.org/umbraco/customContent/media/596_Gladstone_Tornado_Bucca_1992.pdf


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#1438851 - 25/10/2017 10:25 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Thunderstorms, some possibly severe - Thu 26th Oct 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
gleno71 Offline
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Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1293
Loc: Australia
Sunday is also looking promising for storms. For tomorrow The Lifted Index and CAPE seem to be more prominent in Northern NSW, though i'm unsure if that equates to a chance of more severe weather down there tomorrow afternoon compared to SE QLD

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#1438852 - 25/10/2017 10:29 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Thunderstorms, some possibly severe - Thu 26th Oct 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4683
Yeah, I've been eye'ing off Sunday and especially Monday for a few days - one thing that setup has which tomorrow's one doesn't, is a coastal southerly change surging up the coast... although on current indications, it might arrive at the usual less-than-ideal time of overnight. Still time for change though.

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#1438878 - 25/10/2017 13:11 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Thunderstorms, some possibly severe - Thu 26th Oct 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Steve O Offline
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Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 2931
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Sorry NF just have put some more thought into that and I guess you are right the winds are backing with height but not what you would expect for supercell but we will see. Bit hard commenting at work my thought process is bit rushed so sorry about that.

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#1438884 - 25/10/2017 14:00 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Thunderstorms, some possibly severe - Thu 26th Oct 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mike Hauber Online   content
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Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2758
Loc: Buderim
Does GFS forecast a squall line from just near Lismore to north of Dalby at 4pm? A zone of increased 500hp winds to the east of the squall line and a zone of reduced 500hp winds to the west of the squall line.

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#1438926 - 25/10/2017 18:35 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Thunderstorms, some possibly severe - Thu 26th Oct 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Steve O Offline
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Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 2931
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Should be interesting the low level moisture isn't going to be all that great with high bases so that alone does not feel me with confidence but going to look into at 06z and come up with something tomorrow morning. Really though theres a pretty good chance we will see something in that nature though at a little bit excited as I think there's going to be a few sparks around hopefully close enough to enjoy.

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#1438931 - 25/10/2017 19:22 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Thunderstorms, some possibly severe - Thu 26th Oct 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2904
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Hello, the Courier Mail is beating the super cell drum warning of most powerfull storms so far this season tomorrow into friday. Hmmm, any rain is good rain without the carnage thank you! So which direction the squall line you recon gona come from? The last bad one that gave trees a big haircut not far from here came from NW.

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#1438932 - 25/10/2017 19:40 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Thunderstorms, some possibly severe - Thu 26th Oct 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4683
A squall line is definitely a distinct possibility but there's still some uncertainty about it due to the drier low levels and some backing with height in the lower troposphere.

If it doesn't get too dry in the lower levels and there's a deep enough slab of westerlies aloft, that would greatly increase the chance of a squall line. But if it's a bit too dry lower down, storms will stay separated or mass into clusters instead.

Models still going for generally westerly steering flow aloft for non-severe activity (any severe cells will deviate from that flow of course).


Edited by Ken Kato (25/10/2017 19:42)
Edit Reason: added stuff

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#1438933 - 25/10/2017 19:46 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Thunderstorms, some possibly severe - Thu 26th Oct 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Colin Maitland Offline
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Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2383
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
Sorry, but how is this for rubbish, he sat back and only just recently caught onto the storm possibilities within the last day, Hollywood at his best, I usually don't say anything about his FB page. I actually logged off from FB for some time and rarely look at his page. It is just that I have a few friends in panic mode.

"BOM QLD also agrees with our HSC SEQLD severe storm forecast for Thursday! It's going to be a busy day tomorrow. Be prepared & stay safe everyone.

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#1438934 - 25/10/2017 19:46 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Thunderstorms, some possibly severe - Thu 26th Oct 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Stormwalker Offline
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Registered: 13/11/2013
Posts: 61
Any idea based on the models of timing? Last year it seemed like summer storms came in waves with the first around 3pm-4pm then a second around 7pm.

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#1438935 - 25/10/2017 19:54 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Thunderstorms, some possibly severe - Thu 26th Oct 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2904
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Thanks Ken, interesting day ahead.

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#1438936 - 25/10/2017 19:56 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Thunderstorms, some possibly severe - Thu 26th Oct 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Colin Maitland Offline
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Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2383
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
EC has some action around Lunch out west then hitting Metro and surrounds around 15:00. GFS going for a bit later around 17:00. I think now we have to go to real time and see how it unfolds. Plus maybe we should extend the thread to include Sunday and Monday.
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#1438939 - 25/10/2017 20:14 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Thunderstorms, some possibly severe - Thu 26th Oct 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6623
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Pretty disappointing DPs for late October but what can you do. Looks to be more turning in the low to mid levels at least, compared to what there was a day or two ago where it was basically all straight-line winds from 900mb and upwards.

Sunday looks solid imho, no southerly change but much more moisture to play with (DPs in the mid-teens inland nudging the low 20s along the coast). Shear is decent, but cap is quite strong, easily breakable inland but along the coast I guess depends on how strong a seabreeze we get. Either way, I wouldn't write off storms reaching the coast late given there's easily enough shear there for it.

Monday could go either way. GFS has the dryline too far east for my liking, with really the only storms being very isolated and over the WBB / Capricornia coasts. EC at this stage looks solid but you can see @ 1-3pm the westerlies coming through above the surface (900mb) through western parts of the Downs...so definitely a risk of drying out ala GFS solution. One to watch for sure.

Anyhow it's good to have some more weather to talk about.

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#1438942 - 25/10/2017 20:18 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Thunderstorms, some possibly severe - Thu 26th Oct 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4683
Won't be time to go realtime til a few hours out (or the early morning when it comes to estimating the amount of solar heating) especially when it comes to thunderstorms since thermodynamic profiles can change at the drop of a hat.

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#1438944 - 25/10/2017 20:45 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Thunderstorms, some possibly severe - Thu 26th Oct 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Nature's Fury Offline
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Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1878
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Still a lot of uncertainty about tomorrow that could send it either way. I always get concerned when BOM does the responsible thing and proactively warns because FB/media start drumming up severe potential and making everyone anticipate something significant. Tomorrow is definitely not a slam dunk epic severe storm day and I can easily see it turning out to be a fizzer in some parts if the variables turn on us in real time. That being said it could go off big time in the right areas or if things go for us. Complicated set-up.

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#1438946 - 25/10/2017 20:49 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Thunderstorms, some possibly severe - Thu 26th Oct 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Colin Maitland Offline
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Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2383
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
Very true Ken, sorry everyone, maybe I should have rephrased and said whait till tomorrow and see what the morning runs offer and we are closer to the event as we are about 18 hours or so out now. It is just hard trying to come up with exact timing and exactly what will unfold . It may have come across wrong as not worth discussing but that is not what I meant. It is great having everyone discussing the setups.

Things could change overnight or even the butterfly effect could change the dynamics. Just a habit I have at this point, I usually wait to storm day this close out.

Once again sorry if I offended anyone.
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