Page 1 of 12 1 2 3 ... 11 12 >
Topic Options
#1438761 - 24/10/2017 17:21 Low & Upper Cold Pool - severe storms and rain, 25 - 28 Oct 2017
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1272
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Better start a thread as this looks like it may be an interesting event - models not in agreeance for Low's track but agree that anywhere south/east of the system should get showers/storms and even severe storms due to very cold upper air and strong winds aloft.

Even this close Models can't agree on track:
ACCESS C (hi-res) likes to keep action well south over Snowies and South Coast;
GFS drags a decent low right across Illawarra / Metro / Central Coast with showers at first and then severe storms likely on the wrap-around as the colder air arrives.
EC - similar to GFS but not as keen on storms but does hint at a squall line with the colder air screaming up the coast - hail would be a significant risk given uppers & decent moisture.

This is the 18z run of GFS


EC does like 15 - 25mm right up the coast though but keeps the majority of decent CAPE off the coast (so less chance of storms and more showers/rain); GFS has some 20-25mm falls as well. GFS really keen on storms with LI's of -6 to -9 from Illawarra to Newcastle!!

Top
#1438792 - 24/10/2017 19:29 Re: Low & Upper Cold Pool - severe storms and rain, 25 - 28 Oct 2017 [Re: Kino]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1272
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
No one wants to discuss?

Top
#1438796 - 24/10/2017 20:11 Re: Low & Upper Cold Pool - severe storms and rain, 25 - 28 Oct 2017 [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
I just don't want to discuss right now because I don't always have the patience to construct a meaningful post on here, and now is one of those times.

I do agree that the lack of discussion is quite surprising though.

I'll come back when time permits smile


Edited by Wave Rider (24/10/2017 20:16)
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

Top
#1438804 - 24/10/2017 21:28 Re: Low & Upper Cold Pool - severe storms and rain, 25 - 28 Oct 2017 [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3597
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
The BOM forecast has toned down the heat and toned up the cloud for the next 7 days. The inland low is now tracking further North than looked likely a couple of days ago. Rainfall totals don't look big on GFS (which still keeps most falls further South) or in the BOM forecast, but we shall see.

That's a very interesting storm map. The BOM forecast includes the 'T' word for Sydney's West tomorrow and across Sydney for Thursday. Hopefully it comes off.

P.S.1. The BOM has declared a 'La Nina' watch: BOM declares La Niña Watch . Well, Knot did place a curse on the coming Summer.
P.S.2. GFS looks to be showing a significant cool spell for the second week of November. It's a way off so it may all change.

Top
#1438828 - 25/10/2017 08:49 Re: Low & Upper Cold Pool - severe storms and rain, 25 - 28 Oct 2017 [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
I reckon there's a slight chance of some storms late this afternoon or even earlier than that depending on the moisture.

Looks like there will be NW winds for most of the day with a light NE seabreeze developing in the afternoon. Then a weak southerly change should also move up around 6pm which could make things interesting as well, but I reckon it's more likely to stabilise the atmosphere.

Tomorrow is looking absolutely fantastic, in fact I'm very sure that it will be a crazy storm day with possibly dangerous and severe storms!! There will be SE winds which may sound like a bad thing but it won't be tomorrow, especially if there's convergence with the SWer further inland. I'm really looking forward to it, just hoping that no activity commences until after 3:30pm.

PS: Thanks for the thread Kino.


Edited by Wave Rider (25/10/2017 08:57)
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

Top
#1438833 - 25/10/2017 09:11 Re: Low & Upper Cold Pool - severe storms and rain, 25 - 28 Oct 2017 [Re: Kino]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9844
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Be nice to get some grumbles smile

Top
#1438836 - 25/10/2017 09:35 Re: Low & Upper Cold Pool - severe storms and rain, 25 - 28 Oct 2017 [Re: Kino]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1272
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
GFS really winding up now!






Top
#1438838 - 25/10/2017 09:38 Re: Low & Upper Cold Pool - severe storms and rain, 25 - 28 Oct 2017 [Re: Kino]
mkeene(pingtang) Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/09/2011
Posts: 521
Loc: Nowra,NSW
SE winds can be good especially on a day like tomorrow with a nice cold pool. At least they will drag in Tasman Sea moisture instead of southern ocean air. Only drawback i coast may sit in coastal grunge, but storms may fire west of the grunge closer to the convergence point and where the drier air is wrapping in. Could be a very interesting day.

Top
#1438839 - 25/10/2017 09:42 Re: Low & Upper Cold Pool - severe storms and rain, 25 - 28 Oct 2017 [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Wow that looks even better than when I checked GFS a while ago (06z run), now it has the wraparound of low LI's up to Newcastle which it didn't have before.

Pingtang, you reckon the Southern Highlands will be good then? I will be heading up there tomorrow afternoon. I think shear will be good enough to bring cells to the coast anyway. If the storms are strong enough, the outflow will clear away any scud.


Edited by Wave Rider (25/10/2017 09:46)
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

Top
#1438845 - 25/10/2017 10:17 Re: Low & Upper Cold Pool - severe storms and rain, 25 - 28 Oct 2017 [Re: mkeene(pingtang)]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1272
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: mkeene(pingtang)
SE winds can be good especially on a day like tomorrow with a nice cold pool. At least they will drag in Tasman Sea moisture instead of southern ocean air. Only drawback i coast may sit in coastal grunge, but storms may fire west of the grunge closer to the convergence point and where the drier air is wrapping in. Could be a very interesting day.


With those mega-warm SST's; should be plenty of moisture too you'd think.


Top
#1438850 - 25/10/2017 10:25 Re: Low & Upper Cold Pool - severe storms and rain, 25 - 28 Oct 2017 [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3597
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
The cloud's breaking up and the BOM have upped forecast temperatures to 27-30 for Sydney Not sure that the coast will make 27, but it must improve storm chances.

I note in passing that winds North of Gosford look to be Westerlies, but they're all over the place further South.

------

That tongue of cold water extending along the Equator looks very La-Nino'ish.

Top
#1438864 - 25/10/2017 12:26 Re: Low & Upper Cold Pool - severe storms and rain, 25 - 28 Oct 2017 [Re: Kino]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9844
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Some small scale Cumulus development out here - nothing exciting but signs of "some" activity.

Top
#1438879 - 25/10/2017 13:35 Re: Low & Upper Cold Pool - severe storms and rain, 25 - 28 Oct 2017 [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Pretty warm and partly cloudy here, the cloud looks a bit convective so will be interesting to see if it develops further.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

Top
#1438881 - 25/10/2017 13:38 Re: Low & Upper Cold Pool - severe storms and rain, 25 - 28 Oct 2017 [Re: Wave Rider]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1272
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Pretty warm and partly cloudy here, the cloud looks a bit convective so will be interesting to see if it develops further.


Did u manage any precipitation this AM? Was a pleasant surprise (tho I note WxZone did actually tip it which I was impressed with).

Top
#1438882 - 25/10/2017 13:42 Re: Low & Upper Cold Pool - severe storms and rain, 25 - 28 Oct 2017 [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
There were a few drops at North Gong station around 10am but that was it. I'm not sure if there was anything else before 7am


Edited by Wave Rider (25/10/2017 13:43)
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

Top
#1438883 - 25/10/2017 13:46 Re: Low & Upper Cold Pool - severe storms and rain, 25 - 28 Oct 2017 [Re: Kino]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1447
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...


Edited by Stormy3 (25/10/2017 13:47)
_________________________
https://www.facebook.com/groups/422596304525834/

http://supercell1.camstreams.com/ Ellalong live weathercam,from my front verandah.

Top
#1438886 - 25/10/2017 14:14 Re: Low & Upper Cold Pool - severe storms and rain, 25 - 28 Oct 2017 [Re: Kino]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9844
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Yes Stormy, a little more interesting now.

Can't see anything much in it other than a light shower PERHAPS.

HOWEVER - it is far more visually attractive this arvo than this morning grin

Top
#1438893 - 25/10/2017 15:15 Re: Low & Upper Cold Pool - severe storms and rain, 25 - 28 Oct 2017 [Re: Kino]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1272
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Possible storm now in tomorrow’s forecast (on WxZone).

Will see what BoM say soon.

Top
#1438912 - 25/10/2017 17:23 Re: Low & Upper Cold Pool - severe storms and rain, 25 - 28 Oct 2017 [Re: Kino]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1272
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Embedded storm this arvo over Lake Illawarra - heavy rain Lake Heights / Port Kembla / Primbee / Berkley. Heard thunder too.

Top
#1438915 - 25/10/2017 17:39 Re: Low & Upper Cold Pool - severe storms and rain, 25 - 28 Oct 2017 [Re: Kino]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1272
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Great news is ACCESS-C has significantly upgraded today - now going for 20-60mm along the coastal fringe from tomorrow evening into Friday morning! Seems the Illawarra will do particularly well with the moister ESE/SE feed enhanced by the escarpment lift.

Metro not too bad either - especially coastal areas.



Edited by Kino (25/10/2017 17:41)

Top
Page 1 of 12 1 2 3 ... 11 12 >


Who's Online
11 registered (willitrainagain, Kino, Sidney, Steve777, ThunderBob, Cheers, TindraTim, Rhino, Mike Hauber, Perfect Storm, Manly), 332 Guests and 1 Spider online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
avalon, philiphart, Ravenous2411, Sasho
Forum Stats
29421 Members
32 Forums
23735 Topics
1469485 Posts

Max Online: 2925 @ 02/02/2011 22:23
Satellite Image